Energy revolution: The future is not what it used to be. sheets

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Energy revolution:

the future is not what it used to be

Tim van der Hagen

165

thth

_Dies

_Natalis

January 12, 2007

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W

orld

energy demand

Source: International Energy Agency 2006

now 2004

‘tomorrow’ 2030

15,000 billion euros

investments needed

in the energy sector

+ 53 %

the

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Proved oil reserves at end 2005

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006

dependence on the Middle East

the

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The last 160,000 years

(from ice cores)

and the next 100 years

Time (thousands of years)

160 120 80 40 Now –10 0 10 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 CO₂ in 2100

(with business as usual)

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Temperature

earth surface

variations

from the year 1000 up to 2100

Source: IPCC

greenhouse effect ?

the

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Stabilizing CO

₂₂

emission:

action needed

stabilization triangle: cut emissions by

7 Gton/year

Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative; www.princeton.edu billions of tons carbon

emitted per year

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How to avoid 7 x 1

Gton

carbon emission/year?

here are the options (1

here are the options (1 Gton

Gton/year each)

/year each)

Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative; www.princeton.edu

Double the fuel economy of the

world’s cars

Half the number of car kilometers

Use the best efficiency practices in all residential and commercial buildings

Savings

Nuclear power:

Triple the number of nuclear power plants

Clean Fossil:

Capture and store carbon from 800 coal electric power plants

‘Transition’

ready by

2050?

50 x today's wind energyWind energy:

Biofuels:

50 x more ethanol production

Solar cells:

700 x the current capacity

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Time is pressing …

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Solar PV

the future scenario?

increase

w.r.t. 2005 % of world electricity €ct/kWh % annual growth

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Solar PV at the TU Delft

crystalline silicium

thin films new materials

• highly efficient cells

• very cheap cells

- organic materials (“plastic”) - TiO₂ (tooth paste, latex)

• goal: 10% of current € / kWh

• 300 times less silicium

• price and energy cost / 2

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largest turbine blade (61.5 m)

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in 2020:

a 20 MW, 250 m diameter

wind power station?

blades with distributed control

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17 erts 101 102 103 104 105 106 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 R a di ot ox ic it y ( S v )

Storage time (a)

Actinides Fiss Prods Ore Radiotoxicity / Sv fission products 250,000 years actinides

1000-fold reduction of rad. waste lifetime !

• ‘Actinides’ (heavy elements)

are responsible for the long

lifetime of radioactive waste

• Fast

reactors can fission

these actinides

Nuclear fission

reduction of the lifetime of radioactive waste

250 years

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better use of uranium fuel

thermal

reactors use

< 1%

of the uranium

fast

reactors use up to

100%

of the uranium

100-fold better usage of uranium ore !

238

239

92 U

+ →

n

92 U

→

93 Np

→

94 Pu

conversion to fissile material:

Nuclear fission

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Sources: Lynn Orr, Stanford University; Dan McGee, Alberta Geological Survey

Clean fossil

options for geologic storage of CO

₂₂

CO₂dissolved in formation water CO₂plume • Oil and gas reservoirs:

enhanced oil and gas recovery

• Coal beds:

adsorbed CO₂replaces adsorbed CH₄

• Deep formations

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Macroporous Support

(α-Al₂O₃)

Nano-structured Layer

Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) (<0.32 nm)

Intermediate Porous Layer Sol-Gel (2-3 nm)

Reaction catalyst

Membrane reactors for production

and separation of hydrogen

hydrogen

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hydrogen & lithium

Goals:

• high storage capacity / kg, m3 _{and €}

• rapid and reversible storage

• close to ambient conditions

• safe

Energy storage

light metal hydrides metal organic frameworks hydrogen hydrogen clathrates catalysts

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80 bar

hydrogen clusters

pure H₂ hydrate

stable H₂ + THF hydrate

Florusse, L.J., Peters, C.J., Schoonman, J., Hester, K.C., Koh, C.A., Dec. S.F., Marsh, K.N., Sloan, E.D., Science, 306 (2004) 469-471.

tetrahydrofuran

Energy storage

in ice crystals

2500 bar

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Energy revolution:

we better start

we better start today

today

!

Dutch Research Platform on Sustainable Energy Supply

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Special thanks to:

Ineke Boneschansker Ineke Boneschansker Hans Bruining Hans Bruining Chris Hellinga Chris Hellinga Erik Kelder Erik Kelder Roel van de

Roel van de KrolKrol Paul de Krom

Paul de Krom

Gijs

Gijs van Kuikvan Kuik Fokko

Fokko MulderMulder Cor Peters

Cor Peters

Wilfred van Rooijen

Diederik

Diederik SamsomSamsom Joop Schoonman

Joop Schoonman

Laurens Siebbeles

Roelf van Til

Marnix