Project plan, baseline silt PMR

Project Plan

June, 1, 2006

Project Plan

Meinte Blaas, Nicky Villars, Sharon Tatman

CLIENT: Rijskwaterstaat, RIKZ Postbus 20907

2500 EX ‘s-Gravenhage

TITLE: Project Plan, Baseline Silt PMR

ABSTRACT:

The project plan describes the planning for the 2nd _{phase of the project Baseline silt study for the Rotterdam Mainport}

Development Project (‘Baseline silt PMR’). (Proposal request RKZ-1661 dd 6 January 2006; reference

RIKZ/2006/05003.)

This planning shortly reiterates the background and problem definition as outlined in the project proposal. It defines the objectives and deliverables and subsequently documents the approach in detail. The phasing of the project is presented in a time line, including milestones and deliverables. In addition, the planning of personnel is presented and a draft version of the table of contents of the projected final report is included.

REFERENCES: Agreement RKZ-1661 (cf. order letter April, 28, 2006, RIKZ/2006/05280)

Bestelnummer 4500039986

VER AUTHOR DATE REMARKS REVIEW APPROVED BY

1.0 Blaas 01 June 2006 A.W. Minns T. Schilperoort

PROJECT NUMBER: Z4046

KEYWORDS: Suspended Particulate Matter, Region of fresh water influence, Dutch coastal zone,_{Monitoring and data analysis strategy, In situ data, Remote sensing data}

NUMBER OF PAGES: 29

CONFIDENTIAL: YES NO

Contents

1 Introduction...1— 1 1.1 Problem definition ...1— 1 1.2 Objectives of Baseline Silt PMR study...1— 2 1.3 Deliverables ...1— 4 2 Approach and activities...2— 1 General approach ...2— 1 2.1 WP 1: Phenomenological description of transport and fate of SPM ...2— 2 2.1.1 Current situation ...2— 2 2.1.2 After Maasvlakte 2 construction...2— 3 2.2 WP 2: Description of past and future measures...2— 3 2.3 WP 3: Formulation of hypotheses and identification of key variables; ...2— 3 2.4 WP 4: Inventory & evaluation of data by means of metadata ...2— 4 2.5 WP 5: Inventory and evaluation of statistical methods...2— 6 2.6 WP 6: Define new measurements, if required ...2— 7 2.7 WP 7: Practicability and cost-benefit analysis of proposed

1 Introduction

This report describes the planning for the 2nd _{phase of the project Baseline silt study for the} Rotterdam Mainport Development Project (Baseline silt PMR). (Proposal request RKZ-1661

dated 6 January 2006; reference RIKZ/2006/05003.) This project is carried out for RIKZ Den Haag after acceptance of the proposal submitted by WL | Delft Hydraulics on 28 February 2006. (Order April, 28, 2006, RIKZ/2006/05280.) The study was commissioned and started on the 1st of May, 2006.

This planning shortly reiterates the background and problem definition as outlined in the project proposal. It defines the objectives and deliverables and subsequently documents the approach in detail. Finally, the phasing of the project is presented in a time line, including milestones and deliverables. In addition, the planning of personnel is presented and a draft version of the table of contents of the projected final report has been included.

1.1

Problem definition

Fine-grained suspended particulate matter (SPM, see Appendix A for definitions) is composed of small particles of both organic and inorganic origin and plays an important role in the ecology of the North Sea and Wadden Sea. This sediment influences the underwater light climate, which is an important environmental condition for algae growth, especially in the coastal zone. The organic content of fine sediments is also a major food source at the basis of the food web. Moreover, fine sediment may carry pollutants.

The amount of SPM in the Dutch coastal zone and its horizontal and vertical concentration gradients are largely determined by transport from distant areas, tidal motion, waves, density currents and wind. In a relatively narrow band of 10 to 20 km wide along the Dutch coast, depending on the Rhine river flow and wind conditions, a plume of brackish water is formed. In this plume a northward residual current is observed which is strongest near the sea surface and which is driven not only by the prevailing wind and tides, but also by the density and pressure fields related to the plume itself. The salinity gradients perpendicular to the coast, in conjunction with the effects of the earth’s rotation, generate a near-bed density current that is directed towards the coast. This density current serves to collect sediments, as a result of which the SPM concentration increases towards the coast. In conjunction with the onshore bottom flow an offshore current is found in the upper part of the water column. Recently, there is concern that land reclamation for the proposed Project Mainport

development Rotterdam (PMR) will lead to changes in the transport of SPM along the Dutch

In order to determine any future effect of the presence of the land reclamation, it is essential to establish the baseline (reference) situation of the transport of SPM along the Dutch coastal zone. The transport in question is the north-easterly directed residual currents of SPM along the northern and southern coasts of Holland and towards the Wadden Sea. It constitutes a flux with a magnitude and a direction.

In determining the annual average marine SPM flux, the high level of variability for the water flow rates and the SPM concentrations, in both time and space, must be taken into account. This is especially important, since it is not known if the Maasvlakte 2 extension will give rise to measurable effects in SPM fluxes along the Dutch coast; will the effects be lost in the ‘noise’ of the current SPM flux variability?

The main questions underlying this project are therefore:

· If changes in the SPM flux are observed in the future, with what degree of certainty can it be assessed whether or not these are caused by the Maasvlakte 2 extension? · Which techniques (including analysis methods of past and future data, as well as

possible new monitoring strategies) are needed to reduce the uncertainty in the answer to this question in the future as much as possible?

To address these questions a reliable estimate of the contributions of the individual factors affecting the SPM flux must be made. There must be statistical justification for this estimate. As a minimum, the affecting factors will be hydrodynamic factors: tides, wind, waves, and freshwater inflow from the Rhine. Variability of SPM sources must also be considered, such as dumping of dredged material, input from the Rhine and possibly the input from the south, although this last source is again highly dependent on wind and waves.

1.2

Objectives of Baseline Silt PMR study

The first primary question underlying this project can be reformulated as:

How large would a possible future effect of the Maasvlakte 2 need to be in order to be assessable with sufficient significance, given the availability and quality of historic and feasible future data sets, and data-analysis methods?

The objectives in other words are thus to:

· Define methods to determine the threshold values of specific effects due to the Maasvlakte-2, against the background of other anticipated or possible changes in the coastal system (either natural variability and long-term changes or changes induced by man, either global or local changes);

· Define methods to reduce the uncertainty associated with the determination of effects.

The approach is to:

· Propose a strategy to determine the SPM flux and its relation to other system parameters, as accurately as possible in the present (T0) situation (baseline).

and what is technically, practically and financially feasible before the construction works begin. (Foreseen at earliest beginning 2008.)

· Propose a strategy to determine the SPM flux and its relation to other system parameters, as accurately as possible after construction of the Maasvlakte 2 (T1),

again given limitations of practicability.

The strategies can be combinations of monitoring plans and data analysis techniques. In general it can be stated that the SPM that is considered here consists of the fine fraction of organic and inorganic suspended material (i.e., diameter less than 64 mm), excluding living material such as phytoplankton. Throughout the text, the term SPM will be used. See Appendix A for common definitions.

The aim of the baseline strategy is to determine the current state of SPM fluxes, and its variability, along the Dutch coast, in order to be able to determine changes that may occur to the SPM fluxes after the Maasvlakte 2 extension. Changes to the SPM fluxes should be determined by means of carrying out an effect-monitoring program (T1), in line with the

baseline monitoring. The problems of the large variability in SPM fluxes, the large spatial scales and the inherent difficulty (or unreliability) of measuring SPM will be taken into consideration in the approach of the proposed study.

The primary goals of the proposed study require the following:

· Measuring and/or data analysis methods to identify the reference conditions of and

possible changes in the flux of fine suspended matter (SPM) in the Dutch coastal zone,

· Methods to assess whether such changes, if they occur, are induced by the extended

Maasvlakte.

Any strategy for the baseline study will need to address how to identify and measure any potential changes in the SPM fluxes and to determine whether future changes in the SPM fluxes can be attributed to the presence of the Maasvlakte 2 extension.

The following questions arise:

· What is the best strategy for determining the T0 (baseline) situation?

· Which methods are most suited for translating monitoring information into SPM fluxes? · Is it possible to narrow the bandwidths of the SPM flux measurements derived from the

NIOZ ferry measurements, using existing and or extra monitoring information?

· Given the answers to the previous questions, which new measurements, if any, are required for this?

· Given the answers to the previous questions, what is the most optimal design for the T1

(effect) monitoring program, for obtaining a reliable assessment of the effects of Maasvlakte 2 on the SPM flux after the construction of the Maasvlakte 2?

strategy for a T1 monitoring plan, to be carried out after construction of the Maasvlakte 2

extension. The methods for both the T0 and T1 monitoring strategies will be practicable and

cost-effective, as determined by a qualitative cost-benefit analysis. The TESO ferry data will be studied more in depth in a separate study by NIOZ (see section 2.8.1). The present study aims to provide methods to assess the fluxes in the Dutch coastal zone and as such provide boundary conditions for the Marsdiep fluxes. Hence, this study will connect to the activities of the NIOZ project. Nevertheless, metadata of the TESO measurements and in situ data of the Wadden Sea will be considered in the approach.

1.3

Deliverables

As said above, the general objective is to define one or more methods that will aid in the determination of the baseline situation as well as possible future changes in silt transport along the Dutch coast, and that furthermore help determine whether the cause of any observed changes is due to the presence of the Maasvlakte 2. The present project plan is the first deliverable. The final deliverable of this project will be an advice (in the form of a report) on two sets of methods: a measurement method and a (set of) analysis method(s). These methods predominantly rely on observational data and data analysis techniques. Data analysis techniques may make use of physical or statistical model tools. In more detail, the methods comprise the following:

1) A method or set of methods to assess the reference magnitudes and direction of the flux of fine SPM in the Dutch coastal zone. (T0 situation, or reference without

Maasvlakte 2) The reference comprises statistical properties such as averages and measures for variability. Once this reference is known, the same method is suitable to assess the SPM flux after construction of the Maasvlakte 2.

2) A method to define what changes in SPM flux can be considered as significant 3) A method to relate possible effect(s) due to the Maasvlakte 2 to changes in the SPM

flux in the Dutch coastal zone in case the observed SPM flux turns out to be significantly different after construction of the Maasvlakte 2. (T1 situation).

The advice will be written in a Final Report, in which the objectives and questions are addressed and in which the following aspects are included:

1) An inventory of the meta data of the relevant monitoring data, including a. measurements from current monitoring campaigns;

b. future measurements as proposed in this study, if necessary or otherwise; 2) An inventory and description of all relevant processing methods, ranging from

simple to complex;

3) An evaluation of the defined measuring and processing methods in terms of: a. practicability,

b. the global costs (in money) and benefits in terms of improved quality of the SPM flux estimates along the Dutch coast,

4) The conclusions and recommendations for the best strategy for a:

a. Feasible and possible baseline (T0) monitoring campaign for the Rotterdam

Mainport Development Project to be carried out during 2007 and

b. Feasible and possible T1 monitoring campaign to be carried out after

Intermediate deliverables are two intermediate reports. The contents of these intermediate reports will be part of the final report as well.

At the end of the 3rd _{work package (formulation of hypotheses and key variables, see below)}

and following the first progress meeting, the first intermediate report will be delivered to the client according to the contract (Art. 3.2, “… 1e termijn…”) with the following contents: · formulated hypotheses;

· potential key variables which may be used as indicators of (changes in) SPM fluxes induced by the extension of the Maasvlakte 2;

· first assessment of required data for monitoring changes in the key variables.

At the end of the 4th _{and 5}th _{work packages (inventory and evaluation of required data and}

inventory and evaluation of statistical methods) a second intermediate report will be delivered comprising two sub reports as referred to in the contract (Art. 3.2, “… 2e termijn

… ”) with a description of the activities, results and conclusions from these two activities.

2 Approach and activities

General approach

This study relates to defining a reference situation, a (possibly different) future situation, and cause-effect relations linking or excluding the Maasvlakte 2 to these changes in the future situation. Hence, the general approach is based on a sound set of conceptual models or hypotheses concerning SPM fluxes in the Dutch coastal zone. The hypotheses reflect the current knowledge on physical processes and human-induced measures in the coastal system that affect or change the SPM fluxes. The current knowledge on the physics and measures will be summarized in a ‘system description’.

Because of the large variability in SPM fluxes along the Dutch coast, in the present state as well as expected in future, the large spatial scales and the inherent difficulty of measuring SPM, a number of methods may have to be deployed in conjunction to measure possible effects of an extension of the Maasvlakte 2. By using the strong points of each method, draw-backs of individual methods can be overcome.

In the overall approach a number of work packages (WP) have been defined to:

· Formulate and quantify hypotheses based on current understanding of the SPM transport and fluxes along the Dutch coast, and assess significance levels and uncertainties. · Design methods to test these hypotheses

· Determine the feasibility of the methods

The first three work packages concern the formulation of the hypotheses for which at first a description of the physical system and past and future measures is required.

The general approach is illustrated in Figure 1.

Figure 1 Baseline silt PMR project approach

2.1

WP 1: Phenomenological description of transport and

fate of SPM

A phenomenological description of the physical (and biological / chemical, if necessary) processes responsible for the transport and fate of SPM in the Dutch coastal zone will be made. This will include the effects and variability of tides, (Rhine) river flow, meteo-conditions (wind speed and direction), thermal and haline stratification and waves. Also the upstream conditions (i.e., south of the Maasvlakte area) will be considered in this.

To ensure a good understanding of the processes responsible for the transport and fate of SPM in the Dutch coastal zone in the current situation and to provide arguments for predicted changes in these processes following the Maasvlakte 2 extension, a review of the current (T0) and future (T1, after the Maasvlakte 2 extension) situation will be carried out.

2.1.1 Current situation

In this activity the current situation with respect to the SPM flux along the Dutch coast will be investigated and documented. This will be done by means of literature study and, if necessary, interviews with relevant experts (e.g. RIKZ and other experts through liaison with other relevant projects). The literature study will include analysing WL | Delft Hydraulics’ own reports and literature from previous and current projects as well as scientific publications and literature from other sources (e.g. Rijkswaterstaat, other projects, internet search, etc.). The selected information will be documented and analysed.

Part of the required information is already available from previous and current projects. Activities already carried out in previous projects, will not be repeated.

WP 1: Phenomenological description of transport & fate of SPM

WP 2: Quantitative summary of measures (past, present & future)

WP 3: Formulation of hypotheses and identification of key variables

WP 5: Inventory & evaluation of statistical methods

WP 6: Proposal new measurements (if necessary)

Overview of relevant projects

WP 8: Final reporting

WP 7: Cost-benefit analysis WP 7: Evaluate practicability of methods

Liaise with other projects (WP 8)

2.1.2 After Maasvlakte 2 construction

Using the information acquired in the previous activities, a phenomenological description of the physical processes responsible for changes in the transport and fate of SPM in the Dutch coastal zone, induced by an extension of the Maasvlakte 2, will be given. This description will provide input for the formulation of cause-effect relations (hypotheses, see WP 3). Part of the required information will be inferred from desk and modelling studies from previous and current projects. For example the information used for and resulting from the

Flyland and Maasvlakte 2, Appropriate Assessment projects is directly available.

2.2

WP 2: Description of past and future measures

In this activity a quantitative, chronological summary of all relevant measures in the Dutch coastal system over the last 30 years (such as construction of Maasvlakte 1, dredging-dumping strategies, deepening of fairways, construction of Delta Works, extension of breakwaters in the main harbours) and of the plans in the near future (autonomous developments, such as new sluices in the Afsluitdijk, Kierbesluit Haringvlietsluizen, construction of offshore wind farms, etc). This will be done by means of literature study and interviews with relevant experts (e.g. RIKZ, DNZ, and other experts, also by liaison with other projects). The literature study will include analysing in-house reports and literature from previous and current projects. This will be extended by a literature study into literature from other sources (e.g. Rijkswaterstaat, other projects, internet search, etc.). The selected information will be analysed and relevant measures selected and documented for inclusion in further project activities.

The resulting product will be a review of past and future measures and a description of those measures which have in the past and potentially in the future can affect the SPM flux along the Dutch coast in the future. A draft of this review will be presented to the client in a stage as early as possible to allow for feedback.

2.3

WP 3: Formulation of hypotheses and identification of

key variables;

Based on the description of the physical processes affecting the transport and fate of SPM in the Dutch coastal zone (WP 1) and the summary of measures (WP 2), cause-effect relations (or system relations) can be formulated. These relations are conceptual models or hypotheses on the effects induced by the extended Maasvlakte on the SPM transport along the Dutch coast. During a progress meeting with the client, the hypotheses will be discussed and further detailed.

The final hypotheses will be used to:

a) identify potential key variables that may be affected following extension of the

Maasvlakte 2;

The resulting product will be a document including the formulated hypotheses, potential key variables which are to be used as indicators of (changes in) SPM fluxes induced by the extension of the Maasvlakte, and a first assessment of required data for monitoring changes in the key variables. The activities in this work package put the results of WP 1 in a more quantitative and testable form.

The hypotheses or system relations are preferably based on the features of the physical processes (WP 1 and 2) on the one hand and the properties and amount of data on the other (WP 4). With regard to physical properties, aspects must be taken into account such as propagation times, possibly different characteristics for different time scales or periods (seasons, trends, events, different hydro-meteo conditions) and different spatial scales (diffusive spread of SPM, and/or more localised transports in the form of patches). With regard to the data, quantity, quality and origin (in situ point measurements or distributed remote sensing observations) are essential issues in the formulation of the hypotheses, such that these can be verified and tested appropriately. In case of limited quantity and quality of the data hypotheses based on (temporally and/or spatially) aggregated observations are expected to be better suited than criteria based on point measurements. This will be worked out in further detail after the inventory of all available and usable data sources in WP 5, the work packages in which the eventual usefulness of both hypotheses and available data is assessed.

2.4

WP 4: Inventory & evaluation of data by means of

metadata

This work package consists of an inventory and evaluation of existing data (in particular in situ data bases, remote sensing data, and dredging data) by means of their metadata. The metadata describe the properties of the data sets from which it will be established if the data are potentially useful in addressing the project objectives and, if so, how the data should be processed and interpreted. An inventory of data will be based on the various resources that are available or can be made available in due time. The inventory will focus on those datasets that contain or relate closely to the assigned key variables of WP 3.

The inventory and evaluation of existing data, based on the results of the previous activities, will include, but will not be limited to the following data.

Dredging data

Despite the known high variability in SPM fluxes throughout the year, and over the years and the many changes in the Dutch coastal zone (earlier extension of Maasvlakte, changes in dumping locations, dredging equipment/technique, etc.) and also dredging strategy and frequency, we believe that it is possible to elaborate on the dredging data in a quantitative way, as done by Merckelbach (1996). In this study he performed a simple statistical analysis relating dredged volumes in the Port of Rotterdam to hydro-meteo conditions. To be successful, a chronological summary of all measures that may have affected siltation rates in the Ports of Scheveningen and IJmuiden will be made. Merkelbach’s study, and if available other studies, will be used to derive new and/or adapt techniques for deriving information on SPM fluxes along the Dutch coast.

Remote sensing SPM concentration maps

This activity will focus on investigating and documenting the state of the art of remote sensing data and information. Actual processing of remote sensing data for the quantification of the accuracy and reliability of remote sensing data will not be included here.

Optical remote sensing satellite data (e.g. SeaWiFS, MERIS, MODIS) can be used to develop maps and other information products of SPM concentrations (and ocean colour in general) in the North Sea coastal area. Also, infrared remote sensing data can be used for tracking the Rhine river plume, independent of ocean colour measurements. Because the imagery covers the total Dutch coastline, the data can be analysed to produce: spatial maps, concentration time series per location, and concentration transects at one point in time. The relative accuracy of the SPM concentrations calculated from the remote sensing data is about 20%, depending on factors such as the composition and concentration of the suspended sediment, method and accuracy of atmospheric correction, accuracy of SIOP estimates, underlying optical models, etc. The accuracy of the relative difference between pixels in an image may be higher, so that concentration gradients can be quite accurately distinguished. This is of relevance in quantifying concentration gradients along the coast and in the Rhine Plume.

We note that concentration data alone are insufficient to provide an estimate of the flux of SPM along the Dutch coast. Concentration data must be combined with flow velocities, either measured or modelled, to determine flux. Hence, a combination of remote sensing products (e.g. on near-surface SPM concentrations, temperature) with in situ data (to extend the information over the vertical of the water column) and possibly numerical transport model data may be feasible.

Various aspects of remote sensing data will be analysed, in order to provide a plan for using remote sensing as part of the baseline monitoring study for PMR. The aspects to be included are:

· Data availability and processing · Quality control

· Accuracy · Validation

Much of the required information is already available from previous and current projects. In situ data (DONAR, CEFAS, Siltman, Sandpit,… )

Historical in-situ data of marine SPM concentrations near the water surface (also known as MWTL data, hereafter referred to as ‘DONAR’ data) are available for the transects offshore of the Dutch coast and in the Wadden Sea. Mostly for the years 1975-1983, for some stations also for a more extended period. For many transects, there are measurements taken at 1, 2, 4 and 10 km from the coast. At Egmond aan Zee there are also measurements at the beach. These nearly 20 years of historical data provide a basis for analysing the annual average SPM concentrations, as well as the extent of yearly and seasonal natural variability. A thorough analysis of this data and SPM variations in the Dutch coastal zone on the basis of the DONAR data has already been made by Suijlen and Duin (2001).

Furthermore, it is foreseen to use the data from the CEFAS Smart-buoy and Minipod measurements. Also current velocities and echo intensities from operational ADCP measurements in the fairway towards the ports of IJmuiden and Rotterdam.

Numerical model data

The North Sea directorate of Rijkswaterstaat, is running an operational set of models to forecast water levels and currents in the Dutch coastal zone (in particular applied to the vicinity of the ports of Rotterdam and IJmuiden). These models make use of assimilation of observed variables and are updated every 6 hours. An output data set of water levels and current velocities in the Dutch coastal zone that spans a number of years is a potentially valuable source of information in addition to the in situ and remote sensing data mentioned above. It at least provides additional information on the variability and thus is of use to evaluate the statistics of the proposed conceptual model (see WP 5). If possible, data from these operational models will be taken into consideration in the present project. The advantage of these data sets over numerical model data of particular projects is that they are continuously updated, and will be available and updated also in the future.

Also, numerical hydrodynamic and transport model results of the Appropriate Assessment study for Maasvlakte 2 (WL | Delft Hydraulics, Z3945) may be of use to determine system relations and statistical properties. All relevant data of the Appropriate Assessment are available for the present project.

2.5

WP 5: Inventory and evaluation of statistical methods

Within this work package, statistical methods will be defined to elaborate on the accuracy and reliability of the existing and new data and on the formulated hypotheses.

relations, as well as the significance of the assumed dependency of the system response on the input factors (and thus the validity of the associated hypotheses).

Because the SPM fluxes in the Dutch coastal zone exhibit large temporal and spatial variations with significant seasonal and yearly fluctuations, and even longer-term trends and steep ‘events’ there is a high amount of randomness in the data. This randomness is, of course, directly related to uncertainty.

In work package 5, the technical usefulness of the available data and the formulated hypotheses will be assessed. (The practical usefulness will be further elaborated in WP 7). The usefulness will be quantified in terms of uncertainties (or significance levels). Uncertainties in the model parameters may determine which inputs (observable variables) are most relevant and which ones do not provide additional information. Uncertainties in the predictive capability of a formulated conceptual model will also be assessed, using uncertainty in the model parameters.

Eventually, quantitative measures for uncertainties are obtained for both the estimates of the model’s parameters and its predictions. This may also provide indications for the need of additional measurements (WP6). Also, the uncertainties in the model’s predictions provide a quantitative measure for its accuracy. All together the uncertainties determine whether or not the identified system relations are statistically significant and thus meaningful and relevant for practice. Quantitative estimates of uncertainties allow for answering questions whether or not the Maasvlakte 2 leads to statistically significant different fluxes of SPM. Or posed differently, how large an effect in general, and of Maasvlakte 2 in particular, has to be to be measurable with statistical significance.

For the quantification of the uncertainties in hypotheses and system relations standard statistical methods will be used and, depending on the data quality and availability, more modern and generic facilities such as re-sampling techniques.

This activity however will start and coincide with the activity in WP 4 since close interaction with this activity will be required for the determination of accurate and robust statistical methods.

2.6

WP 6: Define new measurements, if required

Depending on the findings during the execution of WP 4 & 5, a proposal for new measurements may be formulated. These are needed in the case existing data are not sufficient to address the project’s objectives. The main question to be answered in the proposed project is what is the best monitoring strategy for determining the T0 (baseline)

situation and possible changes in the T1 situation. The focus will be to answer this question

Possibly profitable new measurements include, but are not limited to, the options given below. It should be noted that within the project, the activities will be limited to defining a set of requirements to which new measurement methods or strategies should comply, and to suggestions of these new measurements or strategies,. The technical details of such methods (e.g., adjustment of retrieval algorithms or outfitting of a mooring) will not be part of the activities.

New in situ measurements

During the project an assessment will be made of possible new in situ data. The assessment will address the following questions:

· Duration and extent: for how long and on what spatial scale must certain measurements be carried out to identify an effect with a certain statistical significance?

· Data requirements: e.g. surface current measurements such as HF RADAR, or vertical concentration profiles using ADCP and/or OBS?

· Location: e.g. to the south of the proposed Maasvlakte 2, as a reference of the SPM flux outside of the region of influence, or in the mouth of the Haringvliet estuary for quantification of SPM remobilisation/accumulation during and after storms, etc?

· Frequency: e.g. several times a year for sounding measurements or several times a day for SPM concentrations?

· Depth: at the surface (e.g. required for remote sensing data validation) or at the bottom (e.g. for more precise quantification of the SPM flux within the coastal river), etc? · Mobile or stationary (e.g., ship-borne measurements, or anchored stations)?

Remote sensing

An outcome of the analysis of available remote sensing data may indicate that the currently available algorithms for processing the remote sensing data are not accurate enough. Also, due to the availability of remote sensing data over long time periods (several years in most cases), optical remote sensing offers the potential of long-term and synoptic measurements, which in situ measurements do not in most cases. To enable accurate estimates of SPM concentrations before and after the Maasvlakte extension (i.e. for both the T0 and T1 studies)

additional data may be required for algorithm development, calibration and validation (ground truthing) at intervals over a long time period. Additional remote sensing-related measurements may include:

· Field measurements of reflectance spectra at the locations of e.g. measurement frames using a hand held radiometer (as in Pasterkamp et al 2003);

· Measurement frame OBS data;

· Measurements of specific inherent optical properties (SIOPs): beam attenuation, yellow substance absorption, (bleached) particle absorption, total suspended matter concentration, and chlorophyll-a concentration;

· Aircraft remote sensing, e.g. CASI, Hymap.

2.7

WP 7: Practicability and cost-benefit analysis of

proposed measurement methods

In this work package an evaluation of the defined measuring and (statistical) processing methods will be made in terms of:

1) practicability, in terms of achievability given constraints of available time and facilities;

2) approximate costs (in terms of money) and benefits in terms of improved quality of the SPM flux estimates along the Dutch coast.

The proposed methods must be practically usable for implementation in a baseline monitoring campaign. A selection of the available current and, if necessary, new data and methods will be made, based on criteria such as technical feasibility, efficiency in time, etc. A cost-benefit assessment will consider the costs of using the proposed methods, e.g. remote sensing and data-model integration vs. in-situ monitoring and/or modelling methods for addressing the impacts from changes in the SPM flux. An overview will be given of the global costs for each proposed method in terms of initial investment costs and operational (day-to-day running) costs. It is foreseen that to obtain these details, several interviews will be held with relevant persons from Rijkswaterstaat and remote sensing experts.

2.8

WP 8: Management, liaison, reporting

Work Package 8 concerns the general project management and overarching activities such as liaison with parties from other ongoing or newly starting projects. Also using, as much as possible, information (findings, data) from projects already finished by contacting experts within WL, RIKZ and elsewhere is part of the activities. During the course of the project but especially before and during the inventory phase of the project (WP 1 to 5) it will be established how the results of those projects can contribute to the current objectives and if and how the results can be used in the proposed methods.

2.8.1 Related projects

Several related projects are at present being carried out. In order to prevent overlap in activities and knowledge, members of the project team will liaise with other (Maasvlakte 2 related) projects if relevant and insofar confidentiality agreements allow. A tentative list of relevant projects and the contact persons is given below:

Project Institutes Contact

Baseline study SPM flux Wadden Sea

NIOZ H. Ridderinkhof, J. Nauw

Baseline study Sandmining HBR, RIKZ The Hague, Royal Haskoning

VOP Silt (Z4150) WL T. van Kessel Appropriate Assessment

Sandmining (Z4103)

WL | Delft Hydraulics J. G. Boon

PHATAFS (Space borne RS of Algae)

Water Insight BV, IVM, WL M. Laanen

OPERA (Space and airborne RS of Macrophytes)

Water Insight BV, WL, Vexcel, Ecoflight

M. Laanen

ISCHA (Space borne RS of Algae) Water Insight BV, WL, RIKZ The Hague

M. Laanen

RESTSCOD-2 & 3 (Z3772, Z) WL, Argoss, NLR S. Tatman

VOP Coordination (Z3944) WL, M. van Koningsveld Delft Cluster: Silt Transport and

Siltation in the Dutch Coastal Zone (Z3933)

WL T. van Kessel

EIA Maasvlakte-2 silt (Z3945) WL J. G. Boon Chain of Effects study Wadden Sea

(Z3713)

WL A.W. Minns

‘Geïntegreerde Dienstverlening GBP-WL’ (Business case: Internet-based access to water quality and silt data) (Z4027)

Argoss, WL G. Hesselman, M.T. Villars

Validation of MERIS data against MWTL data

RIKZ H. Roberti

The main liaison activities are discussions with relevant team members and/or participation in project meetings. Whenever possible and relevant, sharing data between projects is also an important issue, newly available data are added to the inventory and possibly used on the eventual methods. The project leader will keep contact with the contact persons of the other projects on a regular basis.

2.8.2 Reporting

3 Time planning and organisation

3.1

Time planning

The actual baseline study PMR has to be finalised before the start of the construction of Maasvlakte 2, i.e. before the end of 2007. This implies that possible new measurements should start no later than the beginning of 2007 to incorporate a full year. Hence, recommendations for such new measurements should become available before the end of 2006.

This project plan in fact describes the activities in the 2nd phase of the total project (execution of project plan): which spans the period from week 22 (from June 1, 2006) until the 22nd _{of November 2006. The time line is presented in table 1 below.}

A progress meeting will be held following the formulation of hypotheses, i.e. during week 28 of 2006. Points for discussion are the hypotheses, progress of the project and possible changes to the project plan. Following this first progress meeting a document with the results of the meeting and the activity ‘Formulation hypotheses and critical parameters’ will be delivered to the client. A second, progress meeting will be held in September. Also in September there will be a workshop during which external experts have the opportunity to comment on the approach as outlined in the second intermediate report. This will give the project team additional information for the feasibility study and eventual formulation of the advice. WL | Delft Hydraulics will organise the meetings.

Three copies of the draft (final) report will be submitted to the client 6 months after the start of the project, i.e. on 29th of September 2006. Within a week after submission of the draft report a final meeting will be held with the client (to be organised by WL | Delft Hydraulics) during which the contents of the draft report will be presented. During the final meeting a new date for submission of the 2nd _{draft report (3 copies) will be agreed. The final report}

Table 1 Project calendar & milestones 1st day of week 27-feb 06-mrt 13-mrt 20-mrt 27-mrt 03-ap r 10-ap r 17-ap r 24-ap r 01-mei 08-mei 15-mei 22-mei 29-mei 05-jun 12-jun 19-jun 26-jun 03-jul 10-jul 17-jul 24-jul 31-jul 07-au g 14-au g 21-au g 28-au g 04-sep 11-sep 18-sep 25-sep

02-okt 09-okt 16-okt 23-okt 30-okt 06-no

v 13-no v 20-no v Week nr. _{9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47} Activity

Submission proposal (28 February 2006) 0

Start of project (1 May) 0

End of project 0

Phase 1

Draft Project Plan (27 May 2006) X

Project plan (2 June 2006) X

Phase 2

WP 1: Qualitative description: T0 & T1 I

WP 2: Quantitative description of measures I

WP 3: Formulation hypotheses & key variables X

Phase 3

WP 4: Inventory & evaluation existing data X

WP 5: Evaluation statistical methods X

WP 6: Proposal new data X

Phase 4

WP 7: Evaluation of methods (CBA) I

WP 8: Final reporting X X

WP 8: Liaison relevant projects

Submission draft report (01 November 2006) X

Submission final report (22 November 2006) X

Draft Quaterly reports X X

Quaterly reports (par. 4, lid 1 ABO2004) X X

3.2

Organisation

The project manager, Meinte Blaas, will be responsible for coordinating and overseeing all aspects of the project work as well as communication with the client. The project leader will be supported by a strong project team from WL | Delft Hydraulics (listed alphabetically): Dr. M. Blaas Hydrodynamics and transport specialist, project manager Dr. H.F.P. van den Boogaard Data assimilation and statistical modeling specialist Dr. ir. T. van Kessel Silt transport specialist

Drs. S. Tatman Remote sensing specialist

Mrs. M.T. Villars Environ. Assess. & Monitoring Dr. ir. J.C. Winterwerp Silt transport specialist

The participation of the team members is listed in the table below

Work Package WP leader Others involved

WP1: SPM transport & fate Winterwerp Van Kessel, Blaas WP2: past, future measures Blaas Winterwerp, Van Kessel

WP3: hypotheses & key variables Winterwerp Blaas, Van den Boogaard, Van Kessel

WP4: data inventaris Blaas Tatman, Van Kessel

WP5: statistical methods Van den Boogaard Blaas, Winterwerp, Van Kessel WP6: New measurements Blaas Van Kessel, Van den Boogaard

WP7: CBA Blaas Villars, Tatman

WP8: Management, liaison, reporting

Blaas all others

The time to be spent per WP per participant

WP 0 Project plan Blaas 5

TOTAL 5

WP 1 Qualitative description Blaas 5

-Current situation van Kessel 5

- MV2 situation Winterwerp 3

TOTAL 13

WP 2 Quantitative summary measures Blaas 5

Winterwerp 2 Van Kessel 2

TOTAL 9

WP 3 Formulation hypotheses Blaas 2

Winterwerp 2 vd Boogaard 1

TOTAL 5

WP 4 Inventory data Blaas 6

Van Kessel 2

TOTAL 12

WP 6 -new data Kessel 4

Blaas 4

TOTAL 8

WP 5 Statistical methods v.d. Boogaard 14

TOTAL 14

WP 8a Liaison other projects Winterwerp 1

Blaas 2 TOTAL 3 WP 7 Evaluation -CBA Villars/Tatman 5 Blaas 5 TOTAL 10

WP 8b Final reporting Blaas 8

TOTAL 8

Management Project management Blaas 9

The total number of days to be spent are as follows: number of days in project

M. Blaas 51

H. Winterwerp 8

S. Tatman 6.5

T. van Kessel 13

H. van den Boogaard 15

4 Data resources

4.1

Dredging data

Dredging data may serve as a useful proxy for the variability in the SPM fluxes along the Dutch (and Belgian) coast. Of the following ports, dredging data are planned to be considered.

data set available

Baggerstort Zeebgrugge At MUMM (Michael Fettweis)

(http://www.mumm.ac.be/NL/Management/Sea-based/table4.php)

Port of Rotterdam through RIKZ Port of Scheveningen through RIKZ Port of IJmuiden through RIKZ

4.2

In situ data

The possibly relevant in situ data sets already mentioned are: data set Already available at

WL

available elsewhere

DONAR (MWTL) through waterbase www.waterbase.nl CEFAS partly but possibly

outdated (Hans Los, Anouk Blauw)

through RIKZ (Robert Vos)

Siltman yes

Sandpit yes (at least partly) also at RIKZ (Marien Boers) ADCP measurements

IJmuiden, Rotterdam

no from port authorities, through RIKZ

In situ data taken at the beach

probably through waterbase

RIKZ

4.3

Remote sensing data

Remote sensing data are partly freely available via internet; partly they may have to be paid for if not yet available. Products of remote sensing measurements such as fields of TSM (Total Suspended Matter, see appendix A) are most often acquired via third parties such as Argoss, IVM, GeoSurf, WaterInsight or NLR. The table below gives a first inventory of Remote Sensing products possibly applicable.

data type Sensor@Satellite time span Experie nce

available/information

ocean color MERIS@Envisat-1 (ESA)

March 2002 – ongoing

http://envisat.esa.int/dataproducts/meris VU-IVM

ocean color MODIS@Terra &

Aqua Terra: Dec1999 – ongoing; Aqua: May 2002 -ongoing TUD/ WL http://daac.gsfc.nasa.gov/MODIS_{http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/} http://delenn.gsfc.nasa.gov/~imswww/pub/i mswelcome/ http://www.ioccg.org/sensors/terra.html http://www.ioccg.org/sensors/aqua.html ocean color SeaWiFS@SeaStar Aug 1997 –

at least 2007 IVM, TUD, WL http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/SeaWiFS http://www.geoeye.com/

ocean color IKONOS ocean color Landsat TM ocean color( CZCS@NIMBUS-7

(1978-1986) Oct 1978 –June 1986 http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov:2031/SENSOR_DOCS/czcs.html SST IR sensors @ ERS1

& 2

SST AVHRR@TIROS

up to NOAA-17 KNMI/TUD/ IMAU http://www.oso.noaa.gov/poes/index.htm Wave Height SAR@ERS1&2 Wave Height ASAR@Envisat Surface current velocity ASAR@Envisat Ocean Color

4.4

Numerical model data

data type study/project/pr ogram

data set Already availabl e at WL? available elsewhere? depth dependent current velocity from DNZ operational model in MATROOS data base kuststrook fijn model no DNZ: M. Phillipart, D. Kerkhoven RIKZ M. Verlaan (MATROOS)

water levels DNZ operational model train ZUNO/ kuststrook no DNZ: M. Phillipart, D. Kerkhoven fluxes of water and model SPM Maasvlakte 2, Appropriate Assessment (Z3945)

5 Outline of Final Report

The final report will be a compilation of (updates of) the intermediate reports plus a synthesis. It will contain recommendations on the methods to be applied to assess the base line SPM flux conditions and to discern possible future effects of the Maasvlakte 2. The report will present conclusions and recommendations on the applicability and costs of the proposed methods as well.

Table of contents of final report (draft)

1 Introduction... 1.1 Background: SPM in the Dutch coastal zone ... 1.2 Problem definition ... 1.3 Objectives ... 2 Approach and methods... 2.1 General approach ... 2.2 Link with other related studies... 3 Qualitative description of SPM transport & fate in Dutch coastal zone and

A

Definitions

Below is a table listing some of the terms related to suspended matter in water.

Silt General term for both organic and inorganic particular material suspended in the water with grain diameters between 2 and 63 mm. The organic fraction consists only of the dead material, so detritus (dead algae) and is included but living algae are not.

SPM (Suspended Particulate Matter) Amount of both organic (i.e., including both phytoplankton and detritus) and inorganic particular material suspended in the water. Expressed in mg l-1_.

When quantity is derived from in situ measurements after filtration and drying of samples usually a maximum filter diameter of 63 mm is applied, occasionally of 45mm .TSM may also be derived from remote sensing reflectance images by appropriate data processing. Then, only the scattering contribution of the phytoplankton is taken into account and formally no upper limit applies. The calibration determines the relation between retrieved SPM from remote sensing and in situ definition.

TSM (Total Suspended Matter) Amount of both organic (i.e., including both phytoplankton and detritus) and inorganic particular material suspended in the water. Expressed in mg l-1_.

This quantity is derived from in situ measurements after filtration and drying of samples. TSM may also be derived from remote sensing reflectance images by appropriate data processing

TSS (Total Suspended Solids) Amount of inorganic particulate material suspended in the water. Expressed in mg l-1_{. Term used in}

monitoring by dredging companies. Same definition also used by WL in modelling of Inorganic Matter (IM) see below

IM (Inorganic Matter) See TSS

Extinction Attenuation of visible light due to absorption of photons at dissolved and suspended matter.

Secchi Depth A measure for the clarity or turbidity of water. Expressed in meters, i.e. the distance beneath the water surface at which a black and white Secchi disk just disappears from sight.