1st World Congress on Safety of
Transportation
-General Chairman of the Conference
Prof. J.L. de Kroes, Delft University o f Technology
Committee of Recommendation
Mrs. J.R.H. May-Weggen
Minister of TVansport and Public Works, the Netherlands P. van Vollenhoven
Chairman o f the Dutch Road Safety Council and the Railroad Accident Investigation Council P.A. Schenck
Rector Magnificus o f the D e l f t University o f Technology H.V. van Walsum
Mayor o f the city o f Delft
K . van Miert, European Commission Mrs. 1. Dales
Minister o f Home A f f a i r s
Cooperaling Institutes
National Transportation Safety Board Transportation Safety Board o f Canada International M a r i t i m e Organisation European Rail Research Institute
International Federation o f Airline Pilot Associations
Institute National de Recherche sur les Transports et leur Securité Parliamentary Advisory Council f o r Transport Safety
Organizing Committee
J.L. de Kroes, Delft Umversity o f Tfechnology, chairman C. Heijster, Dutch Road Safety Council
T. Heijer, Institute f o r Road Safety Research A . van der Horst, T N O Institute f o r Perception J.A. Stoop, Delft University o f Technology
Scientific Committee
V. Giavotto, Politechnico d i Milano, Italy J. Fröse, Fachhochschule Hamburg, Germany A . Hakkert, Technion - Israel Institute o f Technology A . J. Sanders, Lloyd's Register, United kingdom G. Malaterre, I N R E T S , France
J. Adams, University College London, United Kingdom K. Noite, Deutsche Bundesbahnen, Germany
K. Rumar, Swedish Road and Traffic Research Institute
G. Grayson, Transport and Road Research Laboratory, United K i n g d o m M . Koshi, University o f Tokyo, Japan
J. Sasaki, Railway Technical Research Institute, Japan B. Sweedler, National Transportation Safety Board, USA J. Moraal, T N O Institute f o r Perception, The Netherlands M . Koornstra, Institute for Road Safety Research, The Netherlands
From the Delfl University of Technology:
J.L. de Kroes, Safety Science Group (chairman) H . Wittenberg, Faculty o f Aerospace Engineering B. Beukers, Faculty o f Civil Engineering M . van Witsen, Faculty o f C i v i l Engineering
M . van Hoist, Faculty o f Mechanical Engineering and M a r i t i m e Technology J. Pinkster, Faculty o f Mechanical Engineering and Maritime Technology H , Sol, Systems Engineering and Policy Analysis
1st World Congress on Safety of
Transportation
26 - 27 November 1992
Proceedings
Editors: Prof. J.L. de Kroes Dr. J.A. StoopDelft University of Technology Delft University Press
Sponsors
Commission o f the European Comr Holland Railway
Ministry o f Transport and Public Works Maritime Museum Prins Hendrik Rotterdam Von Baumhauer Fund
Guarantors
Delft University o f Technology Ministry o f Home A f f a i r s T N O Congress organisation Congress Office A S D RO. Box 40 2600 A A Delft The Netherlands Telephone: +31 15 120234 Fax: +31 15 120250 Safety Consultant K I N D U N O S Consultancy Dr. J.A. Stoop P.O. Box 218 4200 A A Gorinchem The Netherlands Telephone: +31 1830 37484 Fa-x: + 3 1 1830 30216 Published and distributed by: Delft Umversity Press Stevinweg 1 2628 C N Delft The Netherlands Telephone: +31 15 783254 Fax: +31 15 781661 Design Cover Studio B, The Hague
ISBN 90-6275-891-6/CIP
Copyright 1993 by D e l f t University Press, The Netherlands
N o pS'ofTe material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any f o r m or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any i n f o r m a t i o n storage and retrieval system, without permission f r o m the publisher.
Declaration 3 A.G. von Baumhauer 5
Prof.drs. P.A. Schenck ^ Plenary Opening Session - I 9 Road Design Human Factor Accident Data Future Trends New Techniques 43 107 169
Management and risk assessment 235 Operation
Collisions and Injuries 399 Plenary Opening Session - 11 453
New Technology 4g3 525
553 Transmodal Aspects
Towards International Councils
CONTENTS PAGE Plenary Opening Session - I 9
Towards International and intermodal cooperation
P. van Vollenhoven, chairman of the Dutch Road Safety Council and the Railroad Accident Investigation Council
The National Transportation Safety Board's Approach to Improving Transportation Safety C. Vogt, chairman of the National Transportation
Safety Board, USA 26 The experience of the Transportation Safety
Board of Canada
J. Stants, chairman of the Transportation
Safety Board of Canada 33
Session 1, Road design 43
Integrated Road Design
M. van Houwelingen, J. Korsmit, J. Stoop
Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands 45 Self-explaining roads
J. Theeuwes, H. Godthelp, TNO Institute for Perception 56 Method of in-car observation for the evaluation of
accident risks
L. Michalski. K. Jamroz, R. Krystek, Technical
University of Gdansk, Poland g? Traffic management from a safety point of view
J.W.F. Wiersma, T . Heijer, Delft University of
Technology, The Netherlands 75 A sustainably safe road infrastructure: the start
of the realization
L.G.H, Fortuijn, The Province of South Holland.
The Netherlands 87 The effect of environmental and design parameter
onto subjective road safety - a case study in Poland
L. Zakowska, Cracow University of Technology, Poland 97
Session 2, Human factor JQ?
Prototyping technological support f o r decision making in a safety critical environment
R. Bentley, J.A. Hughes, D. Randall, D.Z, Shapiro
Lancaster University, UK jQg Keeping the pilot in the loop
H. Bruijns, Fokker, The Netherlands ng V I I
The Black Box called Mariner P, Kluytenaar, Nautical Consultants, The Netherlands
Sea transport safety: a challenge to European Maritime Society
J. Froese, Fachhochschule Hamburg, Germany Revolutionary modernization and simphfication of rail traffic safety rules on Dutch railways
A . A . Wedzinga, Dutch Railways, The Netherlands Fundamental and applied simulation research in the Netherlands to the benefits of aviation safety W.G. Vermeulen, S.K. Advani, National Aerospace Laboratory NLR, The Netherlands
Session 3, Accident Data
Inland waterway-transport: modelUng the
probabihty of accidents . D. Roeleven, M. Kok, H . L . Stipdonk, W.A. de Vries
Ministry of Transport, the Netherlands Accident prediction models for signalized pedestrian crosswalks
A . Tarko, M. Tracz, Cracow University ot Technology, Poland
The collection of information on the performance of vehicles and their occupants i n accidents in the UK. M. Galer, P. Thomas, M. Bradford,
Loughboury University of Technology Ship colUsions with offshore platforms W.W. Massie, J. Stoop, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands
Safety and environmental pollution in the North Sea C C . Glansdorp, C. van der Tak, Marine Analytics B.V Monte Carlo simulation i n hazardous material risk assessment
R.J. Houben, J.F.M. Wessels, Ministry of Transport, The Netherlands
Session 4, Management and risk assessment
Nautical Safety and Efficiency: Simulation and J.^P?7dok, P.H. Wewerinke, MSCN, The Netherlands Economical aspects of safety, a rational approach C. Deelen, J.W. Koeman, Port of Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Problem of traffic safety in Russia and ways of its solution
V . A . Fedorow, E.M. Semionov, I . A . Wenguerov Road Police, Russia
Risk reducing measures as an essential part of risk management
G. de Poel, AKZO, The Netherlands
A comprehensive assessment system for the maritime traffic environment
S. Nakamura, K, Hara, Yusen Marine Science Inc., Japan
Risk analysis for the transport of spent nuclear fuel elements between Dodewaard and Sellafield H. Wels, KEMA, The Netherlands
Risk analysis and risk communications in the transport of dangerous goods
G. Hundhausen, Germany
Session 5, Operation
Experiences in apphcation of the TCT technique to pedestrian safety evaluation
S. Gaca, M. Tracz, Cracow University of Technology, Poland
Don't wait for accidents, possibihties to assess risk i n traffic by applying the "Wiener Fahrprobe" C. Chaloupka, R. Risser, Factum, Austria
Assessment of traffic safety margin in adverse weather conditions
J.P. Pauwelussen, Soesterberg - , TNO Road Vehicles Research Institute, the Netherlands Approaches to poor-visibihty road accidents: motivation and perception
A . H . Reinhardt-Rutland, University of Ulster, Northern-Ireland
Comparative tests to assess the effectiveness of high relief paints
R. Lafont, C. Abelian, A . S . F . A . , France
Spoke Injuries. Epidemiology causes and prevention of bicycle wheel entanglement
J.H.A. Bruggers, S. Mulder, Consumer Safety Institute, The Netherlands
Session 6, Collisions and Injuries 399
Analysis of recent trends in bus and coach safety in Britain
P. White, N . Dennis, N . Tyler, University of
Westminster, United Kingdom 401 Investigation about frontal colUsion between
large dimension vehicles and cars
F. Aparicio, C. Vera, J.L. Roman, Umversity of
Madrid, Spain 413 Theoretic model for the computer analysis of
vehicle colUsions
C. Vera, F. Aparicio, S. Peso, Umversity of
Madrid, Spain 425 Full-scale colUsion tests
A. F.C. Carlebur, Foundation for Maritime Research,
CMO, The Netherlands 437 Road safety in urban areas i n Cyprus
G. Mintsis, C. Tacilaris, D. Dimitros, Greece 453
Plenary Opening Session - II 465
Safety Recommendations - The Engine That Brines Change
B . Sweedler, National Transportation Safety Board, USA
Session 7, New Technology
A broad-brush outline for the railways of the next
century , J.L. de Kroes, Delft University of Technology, The
Netherlands 485
Safe design of personal rapid transit systems
J.E. Anderson, Boston Umversity, USA 489 Development of the DPLU, an airborne unit for data
Unk experiments
G. Wedzinga, National Aerospace Laboratory NLR, The Netherlands
Are new technologies improving service quaUty i n german pubUc transport?
G. Becke, Landesinstitut Sozialforschungsstelle Dortmund, Germany
Session 8, Future trends 525 Relationship between accidents and road user
behaviour: an integral research programme
P. Noordzij, A.R.A. van der Horst, TNO Institute
for Road and Safety Research SWOV, 527 The Netherlands
Intrinsic road safety: a new approach? J.H.A. van Uden, Ministry of Transport
The Netherlands 535 Practical experience in the use of formal methods
for real-time safety critical apphcations P.J. Bijers, Smith System Engineering Limited,
United Kingdom 543
Session 9, New techniques 553
Accidents: In-Depth Analysis, towards a method AIDA?
J.A. Stoop, Delft University of Technology,
The Netherlands 554 A Black-spot approach for a provincial road network
B.S. Tijmstra, J . A . A . T . Peters, Haskoning,
The Netherlands 572 A proto-type expert system for reconstructing
planar two-car colhsion
K . L . Ting, Y.W. Wang, National Cheng Kung University,
Repubhc of China 582 Automation and the future of driver behaviour
W, Janssen, M. Wierda, A.R.A. van der Horst,
TNO Institute for Perception, The Netherlands 609
Session 10, Transmodal Aspects 619
Road safety, research and the European Community M.J. Koornstra, Institute for Road Safety Research,
SWOV, The Netherlands 621 Traffic as work place
D. van de Heem, Transport Union FNV, The Netherlands 647 Anticipatory research for the design of a sustainable
and safe road traffic system
S. Oppe, Institute for Road Safety Research, SWOV,
The Netherlands 652
Session 11, Towards Intemational Cotmclls
Independent investigation of transportation accidents T. Baxter, National Transportation Safety Board,
USA 663 Flying is not safe
B. Baksteen, Dutch AirUne Pilot Association, The Netherlands
Accident inquiries by the Maritime Court of The Netherlands
J. van Slooten, Dutch Maritime Court, The Netherlands Promoting transport safety in Europe - the role of the European Transport Safety Group
G.M. Mackay, J. Breen, Parhamentary Advisory Council for Transport Safety, United Kingdom
Plenary Closing Session
Safety of Transportation: pro- or reactive
W. Beek, National Platform for Traffic and Transportation, The Netherlands
Closure
C. Boerman, chairman of Board of Directors, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands
674
684
693
