Ro-Ro Safety

RO-RO SAFETY

SUBDIVISION AND S T A B I L I T Y PROGRAMME FINAL REPORT

D I S T R I B U T I O N : H . F . , TQMS, GCBS and LR

REFERENCE: SAFETY TECHNOLOGY REPORT NO. 8 7 / 1 6

T I T L E : RO-RO SAFETY: CASUALTY ANALYSIS AND RELATIVE SAFETY (TASK 3)

DEPARTMENT: S a f e t y and R e l i a b i l i t y Group SAFETY TECHNOLOGY DEPARTMENT

0 / 8 7 / 1 6 AUGUST 1987

fitle & subtitle

3-RO SAFETY: CASUALTY ANALYSIS AND RELATIVE SAFETY

(TASK 3)

FINAL

6. Security classification of this report

CONFIDENTIAL

Aüthor(s)

. 5 . WHI

ENIÜR

7. Security classification of tfiis page

CONFIDENTIAL 9. A u t f i o r i s a t i o n u S

;HIP SURVE

.LOYD'S REGISTER OF SHIPPING n , FENCHURCH STREET,

.ONOON, EC3M 4BS

1 1 . Reporting organisation reference(s)

SAFETY AND R E L I A B I L I T Y GROUP SAFETY TECHNOLOGY DEPARTMENT

12. Tfiis report supersedes

3. Sponsoring organisation name and address

o . C . B . S

1 4 . Sponsoring organisation reference(s)

1 5. No. of pages

A RESEARCH PROGRAMME UN RO-RO

B R I T I S H SHIPPING HAS BEEN CARRIED OUR WITH LLOYD'S REGISTER SAFETY DEPARTMENT UNDERTAKING TASK 3 : CASUALTY ANALYSIS AND RELATIVE SAFETY FROM AN ANALYSIS OF WORLD-WIDE CASUALTY STATISTICS PRESENTED IN THIS RO-RO VESSELS ARE SHOWN TO BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CAPSIZE IN COLLISION AND FOUNDERING INCIDENTS. CONVERSELY RO-RO PASSENGER/FERRIES SAFETY IS NON RO-RO PASSENGER/FERRIES WHEN EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF F A T A L I T I E S PER RISK THE USE OF OTHER CRITERIA TO COMPARE THESE SHIP TYPES IS REPORT ALTERNATIVE RO-RO SHIP GEOMETRIES INVESTIGATED IN TASKS : OF IMPROVING SURVIVABILITY AGAINST CAPSIZE AND S I N K I N G , ARE

SAFETY SPONSORED BY THL bENERAL COUNCIL Ob TECHNOLOGY REPORT THE CARGO SHIFT SUPERIOR TO SHIP-YEAR AT DISCUSSED IN THE S 2 WITH THE AIM PREDICTED TO:

- IMPROVE RO-RO CARGO S U R V I V A B I L I T Y AGAINST SIDE DAMAGE TO A LEVEL TOWARDS THAT CURRENTLY DEMONSTRATED BY EXISTING RO-RO PASSENGER/FERRIES ( I N ASSOCIATION ^ I T H DRAFT IMO REQUIREMENTS FOR SUBDIVISION OF DRY CARGO SHIPS Sl^^F31/22 .

- REDUCE RISK OF F A T A L I T I E S ASSOCIATED WITH CAPSIZE AND SINKING INCIDENTS ONLY AND HENCE PARTIALLY IMPROVE FUTURE OVERALL RELATIVE SAFETY OF RO-RO VESSELS.

1 7. Key w o r d s RO-RO VESSELS CASUALTY ANALYSIS RELATIVE SAFETY 0772S 18. Distribution statement LR STD

THREE QUAYS MARINE SERVICES LTD HART FENTON & CO LTD

GENERAL COUNCIL OF BRITISH SHIPPING

CONTENTS SECTIONS 1 . INTRODUCTION 2 . OBJECTIVES 3 . CASUALTY STATISTICS 4 . CASUALTY ANALYSIS

5. CURRENT RELATIVE SAFETY

6 . SHIP GEOMETRY AND PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS

7. RELATIVE SAFETY FOR GEOMETRIC VARIATIONS

8 . CONCLUSIONS

9'. REFERENCES

APPENDICES

1 . SHIP CASUALTY D E F I N I T I O N S

2 . SHIP CASUALTY S T A T I S T I C A L TABLES

RO-RO SAFETY: CASUALTY ANALYSIS AND RELATIVE SAFETY

AUGUST 1987 1 . INTRODUCTION 1 . 1 . An i n i t i a l j u d g e m e n t on t h e s a f e t y o f a p a r t i c u l a r c l a s s o f s h i p i s w e l l s e r v e d by s t a t i s t i c s on c a s u a l t i e s , l o s s e s and f a t a l i t i e s . Any s i g n i f i c a n t t e c h n i c a l t r e n d s , w h i c h a r e a p p a r e n t f r o m t h e s e s t a t i s t i c s , w o u l d o b v i o u s l y f o r m v a l u a b l e g u i d a n c e on any t e c h n i c a l s h o r t c o m i n g s w h e t h e r t h e y be d e s i g n o r o p e r a t i o n a l . 1 . 2 . The t a s k o f t h i s r e p o r t i s t o s u m m a r i s e L l o y d ' s R e g i s t e r o f S h i p p i n g ' s d a t a and i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e c a s u a l t i e s r e c o r d e d t o Ro-Ro Cargo s h i p s and Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r i e s . I n t h e t h r e e m o n t h s t i m e s c h e d u l e f o r t h i s p r o j e c t , i t has b e e n p o s s i b l e t o make l i m i t e d c o m p a r a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n w i t h o t h e r s h i p t y p e s i n c l u d i n g P a s s e n g e r s h i p s , i n o r d e r t o h e l p a s s e s s c e r t a i n d e s i g n c h a n g e s b e i n g i n v e s t i g a t e d . I n d o i n g s o , a p r e l i m i n a r y n a v a l a r c h i t e c t u r a l r e v i e w i s made on t r e n d s i n t h e p r e s e n t a t i o n s .

1 providing services i n f o r m a t i o n or advice neither the Society nor any of its s e r v a n t s or agents w a r r a n t s the accuracy of any m . o r m a t i o n or adv.ce upplied. Except as set out herein neither the Society nor any o l its servants or agents Ion behalf of each of w h o m the Society has agreed this clause) hall be liable for any loss d a m a g e or expense w h a t e v e r sustained by any person due to any act or o m i s s i o n or error of w h a t s o e v e r n a t u r e and o w s o e v e r caused of the Society its s e r v a n t s or agents or due to any i n a c c u r a c y of w h a t s o e v e r nature and h o w s o e v e r caused in any i n f o r m a t i o n r advice given in any w a y w h a t s o e v e r by or o n behalf of the Society, even if held to a m o u n t to a breach of w a r r a n t y . N e v e r t h e l e s s , if any p e r s o n ses the S o c i e t y ' s services or relies on any i n f o r m a t i o n or advice given by or o n behalf of the Society and suffers loss damage or expense thereby <hich is p r o v e d to have been due to any negligent act o m i s s i o n or error of the Society its servants or agents or any negligent inaccuracy in i n f o r m a t i o n

r advice given by or on behalf of the Society then the Society w i l l pay c o m p e n s a t i o n to such person for his p r o v e d loss up to b u t not e x c e e d i n g the m o u n t of the fee (if any) c h a r g e d by the S o c i e t y for that particular service i n f o r m a t i o n or advice.

1-2

1 . 3 . I t has a l w a y s been d i f f i c u l t t o c o m p a r e t h e r e l a t i v e s a f e t y o f one t r a n s p o r t a t i o n v e h i c l e w i t h a n o t h e r . I n t h e n o n - m a r i n e a r e a t h i s has been e s t a b l i s h e d t h r o u g h F-N c u r v e s ^ ^ ^ i n an a t t e m p t t o c l a r i f y a c c e p t a b l e s a f e t y and r i s k c r i t e r i a . On t h e m a r i n e s i d e t h i s was b r i e f l y d i s c u s s e d and p r e s e n t e d f o r s h i p s as a n n u a l e v e n t s v e r s u s f a t a l i t i e s a t t h e RINA^ ' . C o m p a r i s o n s w e r e made w i t h o t h e r i n d u s t r i e s . 1 . 4 . T h i s r e p o r t f i n a l l y p r e s e n t s t h e s e F-N c u r v e s f o r t h e v a r i o u s s h i p t y p e s , and a t t e m p t s t o a d j u s t t h e s e t o s u i t t h e v a r i a t i o n s p r e s e n t e d and d i s c u s s e d i n T a s k s 1 and 2 o f t h i s Ro-Ro s a f e t y r e s e a r c h programme on s u b - d i v i s i o n and s t a b i l i t y .

2 . OBJECTIVES 2 . 1 . The m a i n o b j e c t i v e s o f t h i s Task 3 c a n be s u m m a r i s e d as f o l l o w s 2 . 1 . 1 . t o c o m p i l e u p - t o - d a t e s t a t i s t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n f r o m L l o y d ' s R e g i s t e r o f S h i p p i n g ' s d a t a b a s e s f o r t h e t e n y e a r p e r i o d 1 9 7 8 - 1 9 8 7 . 2 . 1 . 2 . t o a n a l y s e t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n f o r Ro-Ro C a r g o , Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r i e s and non Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r y s h i p s as w e l l as o t h e r a p p r o p r i a t e s h i p t y p e s w i t h i n t h e t i m e and b u d g e t a v a i l a b l e . 2 . 1 . 3 . t o i d e n t i f y s e p a r a t e l y s e r i o u s c a s u a l t i e s and l o s s e s due t o a l l m a j o r c a u s e s s u c h as C o l l i s i o n , F o u n d e r i n g , C o n t a c t , w a t e r i n g r e s s and s h i f t o f c a r g o , e t c . 2 . 1 . 4 . t o e v a l u a t e t h e r e l a t i v e s a f e t y o f a l l P a s s e n g e r s h i p s c o m p a r e d w i t h C a r g o s h i p s . 2 . 1 . 5 . t o a d j u s t t h e r e l a t i v e s a f e t y f i g u r e s w h e r e p o s s i b l e t o a l l o w f o r Ro-Ro s h i p d e s i g n a l t e r n a t i v e s b e i n g c o n s i d e r e d i n T a s k s 1 and 2 . 0772S

2 - 2 2 . 2 . R i s k a s s e s s m e n t w i l l be u n d e r t a k e n by r e c o g n i s i n g t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e t w o e l e m e n t s i n t h e f o l l o w i n g e q u a t i o n s : -R i s k = F X N Where F = F r e q u e n c y o f e v e n t s i n a g i v e n t i m e . N = Number o f f a t a l i t i e s ( o r c o s t o f damage) r e s u l t i n g f r o m t h e s e e v e n t s . 2 . 3 . T h i s s a f e t y c r i t e r i o n w i l l t h e n be i n t h e f o r m o f F-N C u r v e s t o a s s e s s t h e r e l a t i v e s a f e t y o f Ro-Ro s h i p s , non Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r s h i p s and o t h e r s h i p t y p e s .

3 . CASUALTY STATISTICS

3 .1 S o u r c e s o f C a s u a l t y I n f o r m a t i o n

The s o u r c e o f i n f o r m a t i o n used i n t h i s s t u d y was L l o y d ' s R e g i s t e r ' s C a s u a l t y I n f o r m a t i o n S y s t e m ( C I S ) ^ " ^ ^ . T h i s s y s t e m has been o p e r a t i v e s i n c e 1 9 7 8 , f r o m w h i c h t i m e a l l r e p o r t e d c a s u a l t i e s h a v e been e n t e r e d , and h e n c e p r o v i d e s a c o m p r e h e n s i v e d a t a b a s e o f w o r l d w i d e c a s u a l t i e s f r o m t h a t d a t e . 3 . 2 C a s u a l t y D e f i n i t i o n s 3 . 2 . 1 G e n e r a l G e n e r a l n o t e s d e s c r i b i n g d e f i n i t i o n s used i n CIS a r e g i v e n i n A p p e n d i x 1 . 3 . 2 . 2 Time p e r i o d C a s u a l t i e s r e c o r d e d as h a v i n g o c c u r r e d b e t w e e n 1 s t J a n u a r y 1978 and 3 1 s t March 1987 ( P e r i o d 9 . 2 5 y e a r s ) . 3 . 2 . 3 C a s u a l t i e s W o r l d - w i d e c a s u a l t i e s l i s t e d i n L R ' s CIS^~^^ and r e c o r d e d by n a t u r e o f t h e i n c i d e n t as s e r i o u s . A l l B a s i c R e t r i e v a l Group (BRG) c a s u a l t y c a t e g o r i e s d e f i n e d i n A p p e n d i x 1 have been i n c l u d e d e x c e p t f o r t h e c a t e g o r y War L o s s - d a m a g e d u r i n g h o s t i 1 i t i e s . 0772S

3 - 2 3 . 2 . 3 . S h i p Types The f o l l o w i n g f i v e s h i p t y p e s a r e used i n t h e s t u d y , e a c h t y p e i s m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e . a ) Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r i e s S h i p s a r r a n g e d f o r r o l 1 - o n / r o l 1 - o f f l o a d i n g / d i s c h a r g i n g o f v e h i c l e s and c a r r i a g e o f more t h a n 12 p a s s e n g e r s ( b e r t h e d o r o n - d e c k ) . b) Ro-Ro C a r g o S h i p s A l l s h i p s a r r a n g e d f o r r o l 1 - o n / r o l 1 - o f f l o a d i n g / d i s c h a r g i n g o f v e h i c l e s e x c e p t t h o s e d e f i n e d as p e r a ) . c ) G e n e r a l C a r g o S h i p s S i n g l e o r m u l t i - d e c k G e n e r a l Dry C a r g o s h i p s e x c l u d i n g S p e c i a l i z e d D r y Cargo s h i p s , e . g . Ro-Ro C a r g o , B u l k C a r r i e r s , and s h i p s a r r a n g e d t o c a r r y m o r e t h a n 12 P a s s e n g e r s ( b e r t h e d o r o n - d e c k ) . d ) Non Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r i e s S h i p s a r r a n g e d t o c a r r y more t h a n 12 P a s s e n g e r s ( b e r t h e d o r o n - d e c k ) and e x c l u d e s s h i p s d e f i n e d as p e r a ) . e) T a n k e r s S h i p s a r r a n g e d t o c a r r y o i l i n t a n k s i n t e g r a l w i t h t h e h u l l ; c r u d e a n d / o r p r o d u c t s o n l y . 0772S

3 . 2 . 4 S h i p S i z e

A l l s h i p s b e l o w 500 GRT w e r e e x c l u d e d f r o m t h e s t a t i s t i c s .

3 . 3 C a s u a l t y S t a t i s t i c s

The f o l l o w i n g t a b l e s o f c a s u a l t y s t a t i s t i c s have been c o n s t r u c t e d and a r e shown i n A p p e n d i x 2 .

3 . 3 . 1 S h i p Type v B a s i c R e t r i e v a l G r o u p .

T a b l e A

3 . 3 . 2 S h i p Type v DWT S i z e o f S h i p f o r e a c h b a s i c r e t r i e v a l g r o u p .

T a b l e s B l - B

3 . 3 . 3 S h i p Type v Age o f S h i p f o r each b a s i c r e t r i e v a l g r o u p .

T a b l e s C l - 8

3 . 3 . 4 S h i p s a t R i s k

S h i p Type v DWT S i z e o f S h i p .

T a b l e D.

3 . 3 . 5 S h i p s a t R i s k .

S h i p Type v Age Group o f S h i p .

T a b l e E.

3 - 4 3 . 4 C a s u a l t y L i s t i n g s 3 . 4 . 1 I n o r d e r t o e x a m i n e i n d e t a i l c a s u a l t i e s t o Ro-Ro s h i p s t h e i n d i v i d u a l l i s t i n g s f o r a l l r e l e v a n t c a s u a l t i e s w e r e o b t a i n e d t h r o u g h L R ' s C I S . 3 . 4 . 2 A s t a n d a r d i s e d f o r m a t o f l i s t i n g s o f a l l s e r i o u s c a s u a l t i e s , w h i c h i n c l u d e s a b r i e f d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e i n c i d e n t e v e n t , w e r e a n a l y s e d a n d , w h e r e n e c e s s a r y , i n t e r r o g a t i o n o f t h e f u l l d a t a b a s e l i s t i n g s o f p u b l i s h e d i n f o r m a t i o n was c a r r i e d o u t .

3 . 4 . 3 Where n e c e s s a r y , a d d i t i o n a l s h i p d a t a has been o b t a i n e d f r o m L R ' s s h i p d a t a b a s e ^ ^ ^ .

4 . CASUALTY ANALYSIS

PART 1 : COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

4 .1 O b . j e c t i ve 4 . 1 . 1 A n a l y s i s o f t h e c a s u a l t y s t a t i s t i c a l t a b l e s shown i n A p p e n d i x 2 was c a r r i e d o u t w i t h t h e p u r p o s e o f c o m p a r i n g t h e c a s u a l t y f i g u r e s f o r Ro-Ro s h i p s w i t h t h e o t h e r s h i p t y p e s s e l e c t e d . 4 . 1 . 2 T h i s w o r k has been c a r r i e d o u t i n o r d e r t o u p d a t e p r e v i o u s w o r k ( 5 , 6 , 7 e t a l ) c a r r i e d o u t on c a s u a l t y a n a l y s i s d a t a f o r Ro-Ro s h i p s and t h e r e f o r e g i v e s an u p - t o - d a t e r e f l e c t i o n on t h e Ro-Ro f l e e t r e l a t i v e s a f e t y . 4 . 2 M e t h o d 4 . 2 . 1 The c a s u a l t y c o u n t s ( i . e . i n c i d e n t s ) f o r e a c h s h i p t y p e and b a s i c r e t r i e v a l g r o u p h a v e been t r a n s l a t e d i n t o c a s u a l t y r a t e , R, w h e r e R c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h e r a t e o f o c c u r r e n c e p e r 1 0 0 0 s h i p y e a r s a t r i s k f o r t h a t p a r t i c u l a r s h i p t y p e / s i z e o r age g r o u p .

4 . 2 . 2 Two p a r a m e t e r s o f c a s u a l t y r a t e R have been s e l e c t e d f o r p a r t i c u l a r e x a m i n a t i o n .

4 . 2 . 2 . 1 R a t e o f s e r i o u s c a s u a l t y i n c l u d i n g t o t a l l o s s ( i t e m ' B ' i n T a b l e s A , B , C o f A p p e n d i x 2)

- C o m p a r i s o n b e t w e e n each s h i p t y p e .

4 - 2 4 . 2 . 2 . 2 R a t e o f L i v e s L o s t ( i t e m ' 0 ' i n T a b l e s A . B . C o f A p p e n d i x 2) - C o m p a r i s o n b e t w e e n n o n - P a s s e n g e r s h i p t y p e s ( G e n e r a l c a r g o v Ro-Ro C a r g o v T a n k e r ) . - c o m p a r i s o n b e t w e e n P a s s e n g e r - c a r r y i n g s h i p t y p e s ( R o - R o P a s s e n g e r / F e r r y v non Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r y ) . 4 . 2 . 2 . 3 The r a t e o f t o t a l l o s s ( i t e m ' A ' i n T a b l e s A . B . C o f A p p e n d i x 2 ) i s t o be v i e w e d i n t h e c o n t e x t t h a t t h e s e f i g u r e s i n c l u d e c a s u a l t i e s deemed t o be c o m m e r c i a l l o s s e s and t h e r e f o r e do n o t d i r e c t l y r e f l e c t numbers o f s h i p s ' s u n k ' , ( s e e A p p e n d i x 1 f o r ' d e f i n i t i o n s ) 4 . 3 L i m i t a t i o n s 4 . 3 . 1 T h i s c o m p a r a t i v e a n a l y s i s used d a t a h e l d w i t h i n L R ' s C I S . T h a t d a t a i s r e c e i v e d f r o m a number o f r e p u t a b l e m a r i n e s o u r c e s ( i . e . L l o y d ' s L i s t , e t c ) b u t i s by n a t u r e o f i t s c o n t e n t , s u b j e c t t o i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . W h i l s t a m a j o r i t y o f r e p o r t s a r e s u f f i c i e n t l y c o m p r e h e n s i v e t o a l l o w d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s o f e v e n t s , a f e w i n c i d e n t s a r e somewhat s k e t c h y , w h i l e o t h e r s may n o t h a v e been r e p o r t e d a t a l l and do n o t t h e r e f o r e a p p e a r w i t h i n t h e d a t a . D e t a i l e d s t u d y o f t h e d a t a shows t h a t any s u c h o m i s s i o n s w i l l n o t a l t e r t h e a n a l y s i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y b u t any f i g u r e s q u o t e d s h o u l d be v i e w e d p r i m a r i l y f o r c o m p a r a t i v e p u r p o s e s .

4 . 3 . 2 The c a s u a l t y d a t a b a s e e n a b l e s c e r t a i n s h i p p a r t i c u l a r s t o be r e t r i e v e d b u t does n o t c o n t a i n f u l l d e t a i l s o f s h i p c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . C o n s e q u e n t l y i t has n o t been p o s s i b l e t o d i s t i n g u i s h i n t h e d a t a b e t w e e n s h i p s u b d i v i s i o n s t a n d a r d s , f o r e x a m p l e , f o r P a s s e n g e r s h i p s ( i e . 1 o r 2 c o m p a r t m e n t ) . 4 . 4 E x a m i n a t i o n o f S t a t i s t i c s On t h e b a s i s o f t h e o b j e c t i v e s and m e t h o d s d e s c r i b e d above t h e f o l l o w i n g s u m m a r i s e t h e f i n d i n g s o f t h e e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e c a s u a l t y s t a t i s t i c a l d a t a . 4 . 4 . 1 O v e r a l l C a s u a l t y R a t e s C o m p a r i s o n F i g u r e 4 . 1 d i s p l a y s t h e r a t e s o f s e r i o u s c a s u a l t y and l i v e s l o s t f o r e a c h s h i p t y p e c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e t o t a l s f r o m T a b l e A i n A p p e n d i x 2 4 . 4 . 1 . 1 Ro-Ro C a r g o s h i p s - e x h i b i t t h e h i g h e s t c a s u a l t y r a t e , s l i g h t l y h i g h e r t h a n G e n e r a l C a r g o s h i p s . - l i v e s l o s t r a t e i s t h e l o w e s t o f t h e n o n - P a s s e n g e r s h i p s , a l t h o u g h t h e v a r i a t i o n i n r a t e s b e t w e e n t h e t h r e e s h i p t y p e s i s s m a l l . 4 . 4 . 1 . 2 Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r y - e x h i b i t s e c o n d l o w e s t c a s u a l t y r a t e o f t h e f i v e s h i p t y p e s - l i v e s l o s t r a t e i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y l o w e r t h a n t h e r a t e f o r non Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r i e s .

4 - 4 4 . 4 . 2 C o m p a r a t i v e a n a l y s i s o f ' c a s u a l t y r a t e s a g a i n s t b a s i c r e t r i e v a l g r o u p ( B R G ) . t a b l e d i n A p p e n d i x 2 . 4 . 4 . 2 . 1 Col 1 i s i o n T a b l e A Ro-Ro Cargo e x h i b i t t h e h i g h e s t r a t e o f c a s u a l t y ( i t e m B) a m o n g s t t h e s h i p t y p e s a n a l y s e d and h i g h e s t r a t e o f f a t a l i t i e s ( i t e m D) a m o n g s t t h e n o n - P a s s e n g e r c a r r y i n g s h i p t y p e s . T a b l e B-1 Ro-Ro s h i p c a s u a l t y r a t e s ( i t e m B) and f a t a l i t y r a t e s ( i t e m 0) show no p a r t i c u l a r r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h s h i p s i z e g r o u p s . I n c o m p a r i s o n , t h e c a s u a l t y r a t e ( i t e m B) f o r G e n e r a l C a r g o p r o g r e s s i v e l y i n c r e a s e s w i t h s h i p s i z e g r o u p s , b u t i s f a i r l y c o n s t a n t f o r T a n k e r s i z e g r o u p s . T a b l e C - l Ro-Ro s h i p e x h i b i t any g r o u p . 0772S c a s u a l t y and f a t a l i t y r a t e s do n o t n o t i c e a b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h s h i p age

4 . 4 . 2 . 2 C o n t a c t T a b l e A Ro-Ro s h i p s e x h i b i t h i g h e s t r a t e s o f c a s u a l t y ( i t e m B) a m o n g s t s h i p t y p e s a n a l y s e d f o r t h i s BRG b u t r a t e s ( a n d f a t a l i t y r a t e s ) a r e l o w c o m p a r e d t o o t h e r BRGs. T a b l e s B - 2 , C-2 Low p o p u l a t i o n f o r Ro-Ro s h i p s . 4 . 4 . 2 . 3 F i r e / E x p l o s i o n . T a b l e A Ro-Ro s h i p s c a s u a l t y r a t e s ( i t e m B) a r e s i m i l a r t o o t h e r s h i p t y p e s , t h e v a l u e s b e i n g f a i r l y c o n s t a n t o v e r t h e s h i p t y p e s a n a l y s e d . F a t a l i t y r a t e f o r Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r y i s h i g h b u t i s a c c o u n t e d f o r by one i n d i v i d u a l c a s e . T a b l e B-3 C a s u a l t y r a t e s ( i t e m B) a r e f a i r l y c o n s t a n t f o r t h e m i d d l e t h r e e s i z e g r o u p s f o r Ro-Ro C a r g o , v a r i a b l e f o r Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r y ( l o w p o p u l a t i o n ) . I t i s o b s e r v e d t h a t t h e c a s u a l t y r a t e s f o r G e n e r a l C a r g o and T a n k e r s p r o g r e s s i v e l y i n c r e a s e w i t h v e s s e l s i z e . 0772S

4 - 6

T a b l e C-3

C a s u a l t y and f a t a l i t y r a t e s f o r Ro-Ro s h i p s show no p a r t i c u l a r t r e n d r e g a r d i n g age d i s t r i b u t i o n . H o w e v e r , r a t e s f o r G e n e r a l C a r g o and T a n k e r s e x h i b i t a s i g n i f i c a n t l y h i g h e r r a t e ( w h i c h r e m a i n s f a i r l y c o n s t a n t ) f o r v e s s e l s o v e r 10 y e a r s o l d . 4 . 4 . 2 . 4 F o u n d e r e d T a b l e A Ro-Ro S h i p c a s u a l t y r a t e s ( i t e m B) l i e m i d w a y b e t w e e n h i g h e s t and l o w e s t r a t e s ( G e n e r a l C a r g o and T a n k e r , r e s p e c t i v e l y ) . F o r Ro-Ro s h i p s t h e s e r a t e s a r e l o w c o m p a r e d t o o t h e r BRGs. Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r y f a t a l i t y r a t e ( i t e m 0 ) i s h i g h b u t i s a c c o u n t e d f o r by t w o c a s e s . T a b l e s B - 4 , C-4 No n o t i c e a b l e t r e n d s f o r Ro-Ro s h i p s ( l o w p o p u l a t i o n ) . 0772S

4 . 4 . 2 . 5 H u l l / M a c h i n e - r y Damage T a b l e A Ro-Ro C a r g o e x h i b i t a h i g h r a t e o f c a s u a l t y ( i t e m 8 ) a p p r o x i m a t e l y 50% h i g h e r t h a n t h e n e x t h i g h e s t s h i p t y p e , ( G e n e r a l C a r g o ) . I n c o m p a r i s o n , t h e Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r y r a t e i s l e s s t h a n h a l f t h e r a t e f o r G e n e r a l C a r g o . T a b l e B-5 Ro-Ro C a r g o c a s u a l t y r a t e s ( i t e m B) a r e f a i r l y c o n s t a n t o v e r t h e m i d d l e t h r e e s h i p s i z e g r o u p s . T a b l e C-5 Ro-Ro C a r g o c a s u a l t y r a t e s ( i t e m B) shows no s t r o n g t r e n d r e g a r d i n g age o f s h i p . 4 . 4 . 2 . 6 M i s c e l l a n e o u s T a b l e s A , B - 6 , C-6 Low p o p u l a t i o n f o r Ro-Ro s h i p s . 4 . 4 . 2 . 7 M i s s i n g T a b l e s A , B - 7 , C-7 Z e r o p o p u l a t i o n f o r Ro-Ro s h i p s . 0772S

4 - 8 4 . 4 . 2 . 8 W r e c k e d / S t r a n d e d T a b l e A Ro-Ro S h i p c a s u a l t y r a t e ( i t e m B) l i e s b e t w e e n t h e h i g h e s t r a t e ( G e n e r a l C a r g o ) and t h e l o w e s t r a t e ( T a n k e r ) . The c a s u a l t y r a t e s ( i t e m B) f o r t h i s BRG r e p r e s e n t a s i g n i f i c a n t p o r t i o n o f a l l c a s u a l t i e s t o each s h i p t y p e , a l t h o u g h f a t a l i t y r a t e s ( i t e m D) a r e l o w . T a b l e B-7 Ro-Ro s h i p s show a p r o g r e s s i v e i n c r e a s e i n r a t e s o f c a s u a l t y ( i t e m B) i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h i n c r e a s e i n s h i p s i z e . T a b l e C-7 Ro-Ro s h i p s do n o t e x h i b i t any n o t i c e a b l e t r e n d i n c a s u a l t y r a t e s ( i t e m B) w i t h s h i p a g e . I t i s o b s e r v e d t h a t t h e G e n e r a l C a r g o g r o u p ( o n l y ) e x h i b i t s a s t e p up i n c a s u a l t y r a t e ( i t e m B) f o r s h i p s a b o v e 10 y e a r s o f a g e . 0772S

PART 2 : RO-RO CASUALTY ANALYSIS 4 . 5 Q b . j e c t i ves A n a l y s i s o f t h e c a s u a l t y l i s t i n g s f o r Ro-Ro s h i p s ( a n d o t h e r s h i p t y p e s as n e c e s s a r y ) was c a r r i e d o u t t o d e t e r m i n e t r e n d s and i n f l u e n c e s on Ro-Ro c a s u a l t i e s . 4 . 6 Method

4 . 6 . 1 The e x a m i n a t i o n o f i n d i v i d u a l Ro-Ro c a s u a l t i e s has been c a r r i e d o u t t a k i n g a c c o u n t o f t h e f i n d i n g s o f t h e c o m p a r a t i v e c a s u a l t y a n a l y s i s ( P a r t 1 ) . 4 . 6 . 2 The c a s u a l t y l i s t i n g s g i v e a more d e t a i l e d b r e a k d o w n o f t h e c a u s e s , i n f l u e n c e s and s e q u e n c e s o f e v e n t s o c c u r r i n g i n e a c h i n c i d e n t , s u b j e c t t o t h e l i m i t a t i o n s s t a t e d i n 4 . 7 . 4 . 7 L i m i t a t i o n s

4 . 7 . 1 D a t a has been a n a l y s e d and d i v i d e d i n t o c a t e g o r i e s by t w o m a m e v e n t t y p e s : -( i ) F i r s t E v e n t : The I n i t i a t i n g E v e n t i n a s e q u e n c e w h i c h may be b r o a d l y t r a n s l a t e d as t h e " c a u s e " o f t h e c a s u a l t y . ( i i ) B a s i c R e t r i e v a l G r o u p : The P r i m a r y E v e n t i n a s e q u e n c e w h i c h i s n o t n e c e s s a r i l y t h e f i r s t e v e n t b u t w h i c h a l l o c a t e s t h e c a s u a l t y t o a s i n g l e e v e n t . 0772S

4 - 1 0 4 . 7 . 2 These t w o m a i n E v e n t t y p e s a r e a l l o c a t e d t o each c a s u a l t y b a s e d on t h e r e p o r t e d d a t a . Where d a t a i s n o t s u f f i c i e n t l y d e t a i l e d i t may n o t be p o s s i b l e t o i d e n t i f y t h e F i r s t E v e n t as s u c h , and i t has t h e r e f o r e b e e n n e c e s s a r y i n t h e s e i n s t a n c e s t o q u a l i f y b e t w e e n " F i r s t E v e n t " and " F i r s t R e c o r d e d E v e n t " . (See a l s o S e c t i o n 4 . 3 f o r d a t a b a s e 1 i m i t a t i o n s ) . 4 . 7 . 3 Any d i f f e r e n c e s o c c u r r i n g i n i n c i d e n t and f a t a l i t y c o u n t s c o m p a r e d t o t h e v a l u e s shown i n t h e T a b l e s i n A p p e n d i x 2 a r e due t o t h e more r i g o r o u s a n a l y s i s and f u l l e r d a t a c o n t a i n e d

i n t h e c a s u a l t y l i s t i n g s . 4 . 8 E x a m i n a t i o n o f C a s u a l t y I n c i d e n t s 4 . 8 . 1 F i r s t E v e n t 4 . 8 . 1 . 1 I n g e n e r a l t h e s e v e n r e t r i e v a l g r o u p s a r e t h e same as t h o s e d e f i n e d i n t h e n o t e s t o ' A p p e n d i x 1 e x c e p t t h a t i n c i d e n t s i n w h i c h t h e f i r s t r e c o r d e d e v e n t i s C a r g o S h i f t h a v e been e x t r a c t e d and r e c o r d e d s e p a r a t e l y , i n p l a c e o f t h e g r o u p ' M i s c e l l a n e o u s ' . 4 . 8 . 1 . 2 E x a m i n a t i o n o f f i r s t r e c o r d e d e v e n t o f a l l s e r i o u s c a s u a l t i e s t o Ro-Ro s h i p s has been c a r r i e d o u t and t h e f i n d i n g s a r e s u m m a r i s e d i n F i g 4 . 2 .

The d i s t r i b u t i o n o f f i r s t e v e n t s f o r Ro-Ro Cargo and Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r i e s a r e b r o a d l y s i m i l a r , a l t h o u g h t h e o v e r a l l c a s u a l t y r a t e f o r Ro-Ro C a r g o

i s a b o u t 2 / 3 h i g h e r t h a n f o r Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r i e s .

4 . 8 . 1 . 3 E x a m i n a t i o n o f f i r s t r e c o r d e d e v e n t o f i n c i d e n t s i n v o l v i n g l o s s o f l i f e f o r Ro-Ro s h i p s has been c a r r i e d o u t and t h e f i n d i n g s a r e s u m m a r i s e d i n F i g . 4 . 3 .

The d i s t r i b u t i o n o f f i r s t e v e n t s f o r Ro-Ro C a r g o and Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r i e s a r e d i s s i m i l a r , p r i m a r i l y due t o t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f c a s e s i n w h i c h l o s s o f l i f e o c c u r r e d : 18 c a s e s f o r Ro-Ro C a r g o c o m p a r e d t o 14 c a s e s f o r Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r y . 4 . 8 . 2 C a p s i z e / S i n k i n g

4 . 8 . 2 . 1 Numbers o f c a p s i z e and s i n k i n g and a s s o c i a t e d f a t a l i t i e s r e s u l t i n g f r o m each g r o u p o f f i r s t r e c o r d e d e v e n t h a v e been e x t r a c t e d and a r e a l s o shown i n F i g s 4 . 2 & 4 . 3 . 4 . 9 A n a l y s i s o f i n c i d e n t g r o u p s 4 . 9 . 1 C o l l i s i o n & C o n t a c t 4 . 9 . 1 . 1 An a n a l y s i s o f C o l l i s i o n and C o n t a c t i n c i d e n t s has been c a r r i e d o u t w i t h p a r t i c u l a r e m p h a s i s on l o c a t i o n o f damage and r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h s u r v i v a l , o r c a p s i z e and s i n k i n g o f t h e s h i p . 4 . 9 . 1 . 2 From C o l l i s i o n and C o n t a c t i n c i d e n t s c a s e s , s t a t i s t i c s on d i s t r i b u t i o n b e t w e e n s t r i k i n g / s t r u c k s h i p and damage l o c a t i o n f o r s t r u c k s h i p s has been o b t a i n e d and i s shown i n T a b l e s 4 . 1 & 4 . 2 r e s p e c t i v e i y .

4 - 1 2

4 . 9 . 1 . 3 S u m m a r i s i n g t h e r a t e o f l o s s o f Ro-Ro S h i p s i n v o l v e d i n c o l l i s i o n and c o n t a c t i n c i d e n t s t h e f o l l o w i n g T a b l e i s p r e s e n t e d :

RO-RO CARGO RO-RO PASSENGER/FERRY

Col 1 i s i o n C o n t a c t Col 1 i s i on C o n t a c t No. o f i n c i d e n t s 66 26 53 29 % w i t h s i d e damages 50% 35% 20% 28% % w i t h s i d e damages 20% 27% 8% 21% b e l ow W . L . No. b e l o w W . L . N 13 7 4 6 C a p s i z e , C 3 0 2 0 S i n k i n g , S 6 2 0 0 C & S 9 2 2 0 Loss r a t e , L 69% 29% 50% 0% (C & S as % o f N) 4 . 9 . 1 . 4 The p a r a m e t e r , L, i n t h e above T a b l e r e p r e s e n t s t h e l o s s r a t e , due t o c a p s i z e and s i n k i n g , o f Ro-Ro S h i p s i n v o l v e d i n C o l l i s i o n / C o n t a c t i n c i d e n t s i n w h i c h s i d e damage b e l o w t h e w a t e r l i n e o c c u r r e d .

F i r e & E x p l o s i o n

4 . 9 . 2 . 1 An a n a l y s i s o f F i r e and E x p l o s i o n i n c i d e n t s has been c a r r i e d o u t i n o r d e r t o d e t e r m i n e d i s t r i b u t i o n b e t w e e n i n p o r t / a t sea i n c i d e n t s and l o c a t i o n i n t h e s h i p o f t h e F i r e / E x p l o s i o n . 4 . 9 . 2 . 2 The d a t a s u m m a r i s i n g t h e a n a l y s i s i s shown i n T a b l e 4 . 3 . 4 . 9 . 2 . 3 The d i s t r i b u t i o n o f i n c i d e n t s a r e b r o a d l y s i m i l a r b e t w e e n Ro-Ro C a r g o and Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r y w i t h F i r e / E x p l o s i o n i n t h e E n g i n e Room r e p r e s e n t i n g a r o u n d 70% o f a l l i n c i d e n t s . The r a t e / 1 0 0 0 s h i p y e a r s f o r F i r e / E x p l o s i o n i n c i d e n t s a r e a l s o v e r y s i m i l a r ( a p p r o x . 4 . 5 / 1 0 0 0 s h i p y e a r s ) f o r b o t h Ro-Ro s h i p g r o u p s . F o u n d e r i ng 4 . 9 . 3 . 1 I n c i d e n t s o f F o u n d e r i n g as an e v e n t a r e d e f i n e d as t h o s e u n q u a l i f i e d c a s u a l t i e s r e s u l t i n g i n l i s t , c a p s i z e o r s i n k i n g w h e r e n o t a t t r i b u t a b l e t o o t h e r r e c o g n i z e d f i r s t e v e n t s ( e . g . C a r g o S h i f t , C o l l i s i o n e t c ) . 4 . 9 . 3 . 2 The b r e a k d o w n o f i n c i d e n t s o f F o u n d e r i n g as d e f i n e d i n 4 . 9 . 3 . 1 a r e shown i n T a b l e 4 . 4 .

4 - 1 4 4 . 9 . 3 . 3 F o u n d e r i n g s r e p r e s e n t a s i g n i f i c a n t p r o p o r t i o n o f c a p s i z e and s i n k i n g c a s e s , ( i . e . s h i p l o s s e s ) f o r Ro-Ro s h i p s . I n g e n e r a l F o u n d e r i n g c a s e s , as d e f i n e d i n 4 . 9 . 3 . 1 , r e p r e s e n t i n c i d e n t s i n w h i c h h e a v y w e a t h e r , t a k i n g o f w a t e r e t c . o c c u r r e d and e x c l u d e s C a r g o S h i f t as a f i r s t e v e n t . 4 . 9 . 3 . 4 T h i s t y p e o f i n c i d e n t may be i n t e r p r e t e d as e i t h e r i n v o l v i n g some f o r m o f u n r e c o r d e d / u n k n o w n Hul 1 / M a c h i n e r y d e f e c t o r an o p e r a t i o n a l e r r o r c a u s i n g w a t e r i n g r e s s . F o r e x a m p l e t h e ' H e r a l d o f F r e e E n t e r p r i s e ' i s c a t e g o r i s e d as a F o u n d e r e d i n c i d e n t as i t does n o t i n v o l v e a known Hul 1 / M a c h i n e r y d e f e c t o r C a r g o S h i f t as f i r s t ( r e c o r d e d ) e v e n t . 4 . 9 . 4 H u l l / M a c h i n e r y 4 . 9 . 4 . 1 I n v i e w o f t h e h i g h r a t e o f Hul 1 / M a c h i n e r y d e f e c t s as a BRG ( A p p e n d i x 2 , T a b l e A) f o r Ro-Ro C a r g o s h i p s , a n a l y s i s o f Hul 1 / M a c h i n e r y d e f e c t s as a f i r s t r e c o r d e d e v e n t has been c a r r i e d o u t . 4 . 9 . 4 . 2 The b r e a k d o w n o f d e f e c t s i n t o i n c i d e n t t y p e s i s s u m m a r i s e d i n T a b l e 4 . 5 . 4 . 9 . 4 . 3 The o v e r a l l r a t e o f Hul 1 / M a c h i n e r y d e f e c t s as a f i r s t r e c o r d e d e v e n t f o r Ro-Ro Cargo s h i p s i s 1 6 . 0 / 1 0 0 0 s h i p y e a r s a t r i s k compared t o 5 . 7 / 1 0 0 0 f o r Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r i e s , i . e . a b o u t 3 t i m e s h i g h e r . 0 7 7 2 S

4 . 9 . 4 . 4 From t h e b r e a k d o w n o f i n c i d e n t s t y p e s shown i n T a b l e 4 . 5 , m a i n e n g i n e d e f e c t s / d a m a g e r e p r e s e n t 60% o f Ro-Ro C a r g o H u l 1 / M a c h i n e r y c a s e s b u t o n l y 33% o f Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r y H u l l / M a c h i n e r y c a s e s . 4 . 9 . 5 C a r g o S h i f t 4 . 9 . 5 . 1 An a n a l y s i s o f i n c i d e n t s i n w h i c h Cargo S h i f t was t h e f i r s t i d e n t i f i a b l e e v e n t has been c a r r i e d o u t and t h e r e s u l t s a r e s u m m a r i s e d i n T a b l e 4 . 6 . 4 . 9 . 5 . 2 C a r g o S h i f t i n p o r t may be i n t e r p r e t e d as l o a d i n g o r d i s c h a r g i n g o p e r a t i o n s and i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e m a j o r i t y o f s h i p l o s s e s ( c a p s i z e & s i n k i n g ) i n t h i s g r o u p . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e i n c i d e n t r a t e f o r C a r g o S h i f t i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y h i g h e r f o r Ro-Ro C a r g o s h i p s t h a n f o r Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r i e s . 4 . 9 . 6 W r e c k e d / S t r a n d e d 4 . 9 . 6 . 1 A n a l y s i s o f f i r s t r e c o r d e d i n c i d e n t s o f W r e c k e d / S t r a n d e d have been c a r r i e d o u t and t h e

b r e a k d o w n o f e v e n t s i s p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 4 . 7 . 4 . 9 . 6 . 2 From t h e d a t a shown i n T a b l e 4 . 7 t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n s a r e s i m i l a r f o r b o t h c a t e g o r i e s o f Ro-Ro s h i p as a r e t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f s h i p s s u c c e s s f u l l y r e f l o a t e d a f t e r t h e i n c i d e n t . From t h e m a j o r i t y o f c a s e s w h e r e d e t a i l s a r e k n o w n , l o s s e s ( i . e . c a p s i z e / s i n k i n g ) a r e l o w ( o n e c a s e ) . 0772S

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RO-RO CARGO o f i n c i d e n t s , B p e r 1 0 0 0 s h i p y e a r s @ r i s k 3 3 3 4 0 . 0 F I R S T E V E N T R O - R O P A S S E N G E R / F E R R Y N o . o f i n c i d e n t s , B R a t e p e r 1 0 0 0 s h i p y e a r s (3 r i s k 2 3 8 2 3 . 8 F I R S T E V E N T . OF C A P S I Z E S I N K I N G F I R S T N O . OF C A P S I Z E S I N K I N G 2 I D E N T S E V E N T I N C I D E N T S 3 B 59 3 6 CN 5 1 2 1 2 2 0 2 CT 2 3 1 0 5 2 0 0 WS 5 2 0 1 39 0 1 FX 4 4 0 5 17 5 1 CS 5 3 0 3 3 0 2 HM 5 7 0 1 1 1 2 5 FD 6 1 4 33 10 17 T O T A L 2 3 8 12

R O - R O L I V E S L O S T F I R S T E V E N T R O - R O CARGO R O - R O P A S S E N G E R / F E R R Y N o . o f l i v e s l o s t , D = 1 0 4 N o . o f l i v e s l o s t , D = 8 7 4 R a t e p e r 1 0 0 0 s h i p = 1 2 . 5 1 R a t e p e r 1 0 0 0 s h i p = 8 7 . 4 y e a r s @ r i s k y e a r s @ r i s k F I R S T E V E N T F I R S T E V E N T . I N C I D E N T S I V E S L O S T ) (D) C A P S I Z E S I N K I N G F I R S T E V E N T N O . I N C I D E N T ( L I V E S L O S T ) ( D ) C A P S I Z E S I N K I N G 7 3 2 CN 4 1 1 ( ' 4 6 ) ( 1 2 ) ( 2 8 ) ( 3 6 ) ( 6 ) ( 2 7 ) 0 0 0 CT 1 1 0 ( 1 ) ( 1 ) 4 0 0 FX 6 0 1 ( 1 0 ) ( 4 3 8 ) ( 4 3 1 ) 4 2 0 CS 0 0 0 ( 4 0 ) ( 3 3 ) 1 0 0 HM 1 0 0 ( 1 ) ( 1 2 ) 2 1 1 FD 3 1 2 ( 7 ) ( 2 ) ( 5 ) ( 3 8 7 ) ( 1 8 3 ) ( 2 0 4 ) 18 6 3 T O T A L 15 3 4 ( 1 0 4 ) ( 4 7 ) ( 33 ) ( 8 7 4 ) ( 1 9 0 ) ( 6 6 2 ) 45% 32% % L I V E S 22% 76% L O S T

C o 1 l i s i o n s

( A l l I n c i d e n t s I n c l 2 n d / 3 r d E v e n t s )

CATEGORY RO-RO CARGO RO-RO PASSENGER/FERRY

No. o f r e c o r d e d s e r i o u s i n c i d e n t s 66 53

No. o f Bow damages 19 19

No. o f S t e r n damages 2 6 No. o f B o w / S t e r n damages 21 25 ( i m p l i e d s t r i k i n g s h i p ) No. o f S i d e damages o n l y 33 14 ( i m p l i e d s t r u c k s h i p ) No. o f S i d e damages a b o v e WL o n l y 20 10 - r e s u l t i n g i n c a p s i z e 0 0 - r e s u l t i n g i n s i n k i n g 0 0 No. o f S i d e damages b e l o w WL o n l y 9 0 - r e s u l t i n g i n c a p s i z e 2 0 - r e s u l t i n g i n s i n k i n g 5 0

No. o f S i d e damages a b o v e & b e l o w WL 4 4

- r e s u l t i n g i n c a p s i z e 1 2 - r e s u l t i n g i n s i n k i n g 1 0 No. o f s i d e damages b e l o w WL o n l y 13 4 + a b o v e & be 1ow WL - r e s u l t i n g i n c a p s i z e 3 2 - r e s u l t i n g i n s i n k i n g 6 0 No. o f u n s p e c i f i e d damages 12 14 - r e s u l t i n g i n c a p s i z e 0 0 - r e s u l t i n g i n s i n k i n g 0 1 0772S

TABLE 4 . 2

RO-RO SERIOUS CASUALTIES C o n t a c t s

( A l l I n c i d e n t s I n c l 2 n d / 3 r d E v e n t s )

CATEGORY RO-RO CARGO RO-RO PASSENGER/FERRY

Mo. o f r e c o r d e d s e r i o u s i n c i d e n t s 26 29

No. o f Bow damages 7 10

No. o f S t e r n damages 8 5 No. o f B o w / S t e r n damages 14 15 No. o f S i d e damages o n l y 9 8 No. o f S i d e damages a b o v e WL o n l y 3 2 - r e s u l t i n g i n c a p s i z e 0 0 - r e s u l t i n g i n s i n k i n g 0 0 No. o f S i d e damages b e l o w WL o n l y 5 1 - r e s u l t i n g i n c a p s i z e 0 0 - r e s u l t i n g i n s i n k i n g 2 0

No. o f S i d e damages a b o v e & b e l o w WL 2 5

- r e s u l t i n g i n c a p s i z e 0 0 - r e s u l t i n g i n s i n k i n g 0 0 No. o f s i d e damages b e l o w WL o n l y 7 6 + a b o v e & be low WL - r e s u l t i n g i n c a p s i z e 0 0 - r e s u l t i n g i n s i n k i n g 2 0 No o f u n s p e c i f i e d damages 3 6 - r e s u l t i n g i n c a p s i z e 0 1 - r e s u l t i n g i n s i n k i n g 0 0 0772S

F i r e & E x p l o s i o n 1 s t R e c o r d e d E v e n t

CATEGORY RO-RO CARGO RO-RO PASSENGER/FERRY

Mo. o f r e c o r d e d s e r i o u s i n c i d e n t s 38 44 No. o f i n c i d e n t s o c c u r r i n g a t sea • 21 29 No. o f i n c i d e n t s o c c u r r i n g i n p o r t n 15 F i r e s - i n E n g i n e Room 13 19 - i n A c c o m m o d a t i o n 2 11 - i n Car D e c k / H o l d Spaces 3 3 Exp l o s i o n - i n E n g i n e Room 9 3 - e 1 s e w h e r e 2 0 2 n d , 3 r d R e c o r d e d E v e n t No. o f r e c o r d e d i n c i d e n t s 5 3

TABLE 4 . 4

RO-RO SERIOUS CASUALTIES F o u n d e r i n g

( A l l U n q u a l i f i e d C a s u a l t i e s I n v o l v i n g L i s t , C a p s i z e o r S i n k i n g )

CATEGORY RO-RO CARGO RO-RO PASSENGER/FERRY

No. o f r e c o r d e d i n c i d e n t s 11 6 No. o f i n c i d e n t s o c c u r r i n g a t sea 5 6 - r e s u l t i n g i n l i s t i n g 2 1 - r e s u l t i n g i n c a p s i z e 1 1 - r e s u l t i n g i n s i n k i n g 2 4 N o . o f i n c i d e n t s o c c u r r i n g i n p o r t 6 0 - r e s u l t i n g i n l i s t i n g 2 0 - r e s u l t i n g i n c a p s i z e 1 0 - r e s u l t i n g i n s i n k i n g 3 0 0772S

B r e a k d o w n o f I n c i d e n t T y p e s

TYPE OF HM INCIDENT RO-RO CARGO RO-RO PASSENGER/FERRY

H u l l damage - H e a v y w e a t h e r , w a t e r i n g r e s s . 16 1 1 l e a k s , s p l i t s , f r a c t u r e s e t c . S t e e r i n g / C o n t r o l S y s t e m s - S t e e r i n g g e a r d a m a g e / f a i l u r e 10 7 i n c l u d i n g l o s s o f r u d d e r - P r o p e l l e r d a m a g e / f a i l u r e 1 3 - S t e r n g l a n d / t a i 1 s h a f t 3 3 d a m a g e / f a i 1 u r e M a c h i n e r y Damage - M a i n e n g i n e d a m a g e / t r o u b l e 46 11 - M a i n e n g i n e b r e a k d o w n / f a i l u r e 33 10 - B o i l e r and s t e a m p l a n t a s s o c i a t e d 5 1 d a m a g e , t r o u b l e , b r e a k d o w n / f a i l u r e - G e n e r a t o r a s s o c i a t e d 3 0 d a m a g e , t r o u b l e , b r e a k d o w n / f a i 1 u r e - E l e c t r i c a l a s s o c i a t e d damage 2 1 t r o u b l e , b r e a k d o w n / f a i l u r e - A u x i l i a r y p u m p i n g and p i p i n g 2 1 d a m a g e , b r e a k d o w n / f a i l u r e - G e a r i n g f a i l u r e / b r e a k d o w n 1 0 - O t h e r u n s p e c i f i e d ( m a c h i n e r y ) 4 2 M o o r i n g , t o w l i n e , a n c h o r s 5 8 and c a b l e f a i l u r e s e t c . C a r g o h a n d l i n g 1 3 - d o o r s , l i f t s , r a m p s , c r a n e s , e t c . O t h e r u n s p e c i f i e d 5 0 07 72S

TABLE 4 . 6

RO-RO SERIOUS CASUALTIES C a r g o S h i f t

( A l l I n c i d e n t s I n c l 1 s t I d e n t i f i a b l e E v e n t )

CATEGORY RO-RO CARGO RO-RO PASSENGER/FERRY

No. o f i d e n t i f i a b l e i n c i d e n t s 17 5 No. o f i n c i d e n t s o c c u r r i n g a t sea 12 2 - r e s u l t i n g i n l i s t i n g 3 1 - r e s u l t i n g i n c a p s i z e 1 0 - r e s u l t i n g i n s i n k i n g 1 0 N o . o f i n c i d e n t s o c c u r r i n g i n p o r t 5 3 - r e s u l t i n g i n l i s t i n g 1 0 - r e s u l t i n g i n c a p s i z e 4 3 - r e s u l t i n g i n s i n k i n g 0 0 0 7 7 2 S

W r e c k e d / S t r a n d e d 1 s t R e c o r d e d I n c i d e n t

CATEGORY RO-RO CARGO RO-RO PASSENGER/FERRY

No. o f r e c o r d e d s e r i o u s i n c i d e n t s 52 51 No. o f i n c i d e n t s o c c u r r i n g a t sea 41 37 No. o f i n c i d e n t s o c c u r r i n g i n p o r t 11 14 R e p o r t e d h o l e d / s p l i t / f l o o d e d ( w a t e r i n g r e s s ) 37 38 Réf l o a t e d 33 27 Taken o u t o f s e r v i c e / b r o k e n u p / w r e c k e d 1 5 L o s t ( c a p s i z e d o r s u n k ) 0 1 U n s p e c i f i e d 16 17 0772S

5 - 1

5. CURRENT RELATIVE SAFETY

5 .1 O b . j e c t i ves A n a l y s i s o f t h e c a s u a l t y d a t a w i t h a v i e w t o e x p r e s s i n g t h e r e l a t i v e s a f e t y o f Ro-Ro s h i p s by c o m p a r i s o n w i t h o t h e r s h i p t y p e s . R e l a t i v e s a f e t y may be a s s e s s e d i n t e r m s o f t h e c a u s e s / c o n s e q u e n c e s o f an i n c i d e n t , t h e f o r m e r by c o m p a r i n g t h e f r e q u e n c y o f o c c u r r e n c e o f t h e i n i t i a t i n g e v e n t and t h e l a t t e r as t h e p r o d u c t o r r e s u l t o f t h e i n c i d e n t . 5 . 2 Causes 5 . 2 . 1 P a r t 1 o f S e c t i o n 4 o f t h i s r e p o r t has p r e s e n t e d an a n a l y s i s o f t h e f r e q u e n c y o f o c c u r e n c e o f c a s u a l t y i n c i d e n t s t o Ro-Ro s h i p s c o m p a r e d t o t h e s e l e c t e d s h i p t y p e s . 5 . 2 . 2 P a r t 2 o f S e c t i o n 4 c o n t a i n s an a n a l y s i s and b r e a k d o w n o f t h e i n i t i a t i n g ( f i r s t r e c o r d e d ) e v e n t s and d i s t r i b u t i o n . 5 . 3 C o n s e q u e n c e s I n t e r m s o f r e l a t i v e s a f e t y , c o n s e q u e n c e s o c c u r r i n g f r o m c a s u a l t i e s may be e x p r e s s e d as t h e f r e q u e n c y o f o c c u r r e n c e o f a) F a t a l i t i e s ( c r e w and p a s s e n g e r s ) b) Loss o f s h i p ( c a p s i z e o r s i n k i n g ) 0772S

5 . 3 . 1 F a t a l i t i e s

5 . 3 . 1 . 1 O b s e r v a t i o n s on t h e s t a t i s t i c s shown i n F i g 4 . 3 :

- c a p s i z e r e p r e s e n t s 45% and 22%, r e s p e c t i v e l y , o f f a t a l i t i e s f o r Ro-Ro C a r g o and Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r i e s

- c a p s i z e and s i n k i n g r e p r e s e n t 7 7 % and 98%, r e s p e c t i v e l y , o f f a t a l i t i e s f o r Ro-Ro C a r g o and Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r i e s .

5 . 3 . 1 . 2 R i s k a s s e s s m e n t has been b a s e d upon t h e f o l l o w i n g e q u a t i o n :

-R i s k = F . N .

Where F = F r e q u e n c y o f E v e n t s e x p e c t e d i n a g i v e n t i m e

N = Number o f F a t a l i t i e s r e s u l t i n g f r o m t h o s e e v e n t s .

5 . 3 . 1 . 3 The c a s u a l t y l i s t i n g s have been a n a l y s e d and f a t a l i t y d a t a e x t r a c t e d i n o r d e r t o c o n s t r u c t F-N c u r v e s w h e r e F c o r r e s p o n d s t o e v e n t s t h a t h a v e o c c u r r e d d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d a t r i s k . 5 . 3 . 1 . 4 A p l o t o f F-N c u r v e s f o r each s h i p t y p e i s shown i n F i g 5 . 1 . The r e l a t i v e l y h i g h v a l u e s f o r G e n e r a l C a r g o s h i p s and T a n k e r s s h o u l d be t a k e n i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e l a r g e r number o f s h i p s a t r i s k i n t h e s e g r o u p s ( A p p e n d i x 2 , T a b l e s D and E) . 0772S

5 - 3 5 . 3 . 1 . 5 A m o d i f i e d p l o t o f F-N d a t a f a c t o r e d by t h e v a l u e o f s h i p - y e a r s a t r i s k f o r e a c h s h i p t y p e has been c o n s t r u c t e d and i s shown i n F i g 5 . 2 . These c u r v e s , t h e r e f o r e , p r o v i d e an i n d i c a t o r o f t h e r e l a t i v e s a f e t y f o r e a c h s h i p t y p e , i . e . r i s k o f o c c u r r e n c e o f N o r more f a t a l i t i e s f o r e a c h s h i p t y p e p e r u n i t ( 1 0 0 0 s h i p - y e a r s a t r i s k ) . 5 . 3 . 1 . 6 B o t h F i g s 5 . 1 and 5 . 2 d i s p l a y a d i f f e r e n c e i n s l o p e b e t w e e n P a s s e n g e r and n o n - P a s s e n g e r c a r r y i n g s h i p s , w i t h t h e l a t t e r c a t e g o r y h a v i n g an u p p e r l i m i t c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o i n d i v i d u a l s h i p c r e w n u m b e r , maximum 3 0 - 4 0 . 5 . 3 . 1 . 7 I n a d d i t i o n , i t w i l l be o b s e r v e d t h a t t h e v a l u e s f o r Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r i e s a r e l o w e r t h a n t h e v a l u e s o f non Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r i e s . D e t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e c a u s e s o f t h e r e l a t i v e h i g h e r v a l u e s f o r non Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r i e s w o u l d r e q u i r e f u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n w h i c h has n o t been p o s s i b l e w i t h i n t h e t i m e s c h e d u l e . H o w e v e r t h e f o l l o w i n g f a c t o r s may be r e l e v a n t : - c o m p a r i s o n o f F-N c u r v e s on t h e b a s i s o f number o f p a s s e n g e r s / d i s t a n c e t r a v e l l e d i n p l a c e o f s h i p - y e a r s a t r i s k may a l t e r t h e r e l a t i v e p o s i t i o n o f t h e c u r v e s f o r Ro-Ro and non Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r i e s .

- d i s t r i b u t i o n o f age o f r e s p e c t i v e f l e e t s ( w e a r and t e a r , m a i n t e n a n c e , s t a t u t o r y r e g u l a t i o n s a p p l i c a b l e )

- d i s t r i b u t i o n o f f l a g o f r e s p e c t i v e f l e e t s . •

5 . 3 . 1 . B I t w i l l be o b s e r v e d t h a t t h e c u r v e s f o r e a c h s h i p t y p e i n F i g 5 . 2 c o n v e r g e as N a p p r o a c h e s 1 , w i t h Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r y v a l u e s b e i n g l o w e r t h a n t h e o t h e r s h i p t y p e s . 5 . 3 . 1 . 9 F u r t h e r b r e a k d o w n o f t h e f a t a l i t y f i g u r e s has been c a r r i e d o u t i n o r d e r t o d i s t i n g u i s h b e t w e e n t h e f o l l o w i n g t w o g r o u p s A) F i r e & E x p l o s i o n Where F i r e a n d / o r E x p l o s i o n has o c c u r r e d w i t h i n t h e e v e n t s e q u e n c e r e s u l t i n g i n l o s s o f l i f e t h e f a t a l i t i e s have been a t t r i b u t e d t o t h i s e v e n t i n p r e f e r e n c e t o non F i r e / E x p l o s i o n e v e n t s . B) E x c l u d i n g F i r e & E x p l o s i o n A l l c a s e s o t h e r t h a n as d e f i n e d i n A) a b o v e . NOTE I n t h e c a s e o f G e n e r a l C a r g o s h i p s , f a t a l i t i e s due t o c a t e g o r y M G - M i s s i n g ( c a u s e / s e q u e n c e u n k n o w n ) h a v e been a l t e r n a t i v e l y a l l o c a t e d t o g r o u p s A) and B ) , p r o d u c i n g F-N bands f o r t h i s s h i p t y p e . No f a t a l i t i e s f o r c a t e g o r y M G - M i s s i n g have o c c u r r e d f o r t h e o t h e r s h i p t y p e s f o r t h e p e r i o d a n a l y s e d . 0772S

5 - 5 5 . 3 . 1 . 1 0 F-N c u r v e s f o r g r o u p s A) and B) d e f i n e d a b o v e a r e shown i n F i g 5 . 3 and t h e f o l l o w i n g o b s e r v a t i o n s a r e made: C u r v e s f o r G r o u p A) ( e x c l u d i n g F i r e & E x p l o s i o n ) - Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r y v a l u e s a r e l o w e r t h a n t h e v a l u e s f o r non Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r i e s , ( s e e a l s o 5 . 3 . 1 . 7 ) - Ro-Ro C a r g o v a l u e s a r e b r o a d l y s i m i l a r t o t h e c u r v e band f o r G e n e r a l C a r g o b u t e x h i b i t a l e s s s m o o t h c u r v e ( p o s s i b l y due t o l o w p o p u l a t i o n ) . - T a n k e r c u r v e p o s i t i o n i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y l o w e r t h a n t h e o t h e r s h i p t y p e s a n a l y s e d . C u r v e s f o r G r o u p B) ( F i r e and E x p l o s i o n ) - Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r y v a l u e s a g a i n a r e l o w e r t h a n non Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r i e s , b u t l e s s p r o n o u n c e d t h a n i n c u r v e A) - Ro-Ro C a r g o v a l u e s l i e w i t h i n t h e band o f c u r v e s f o r G e n e r a l C a r g o - T a n k e r c u r v e i s p o s i t i o n e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y h i g h e r t h a n o t h e r s h i p t y p e s f o r i n c i d e n t s i n v o l v i n g up t o 8 f a t a l i t i e s . 0772S

5 . 3 . 1 . 1 1 The v a l u e s c o n t a i n e d i n F i g s 5 . 1 t o 5 . 3 c o r r e s p o n d t o a c u m u l a t i v e c o u n t o f f a t a l i t i e s , i e . F, f r e q u e n c y o f N o r more f a t a l i t i e s . C o n s e q u e n t l y t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f a s i n g l e i n c i d e n t w i t h a l a r g e number o f f a t a l i t i e s ( a p p e a r i n g on t h e RH s e c t o r o f t h e c u r v e s ) has a r e d u c i n g s i g n i f i c a n c e as H a p p r o a c h e s 1 . I n o t h e r w o r d s , r e m o v a l o r a d d i t i o n o f one i n c i d e n t i n v o l v i n g a l a r g e number o f f a t a l i t i e s w i l l n o t a l t e r a p p r e c i a b l y t h e p o s i t i o n o f t h e c u r v e i n t h e r a n g e N l e s s t h a n 1 0 , s a y . 5 . 3 . 2 S h i p L o s s ( C a p s i z e o r S i n k i n g ) 5 . 3 . 2 . 1 O b s e r v a t i o n on t h e s t a t i s t i c s shown i n F i g 4 . 2 - T h r e e g r o u p s o f f i r s t r e c o r d e d e v e n t a r e r e s p o n s i b l e f o r a l l c a s e s ( 1 0 ) o f c a p s i z e f o r Ro-Ro C a r g o and 6 o u t o f 7 c a s e s o f c a p s i z e f o r Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r i e s v i z C o l l i s i o n , Cargo S h i f t and F o u n d e r i n g . - I n c i d e n t s r e s u l t i n g i n l o s s ( c a p s i z e and s i n k i n g ) as a p e r c e n t a g e o f a l l s e r i o u s c a s u a l t i e s a r e v e r y s i m i l a r f o r Ro-Ro C a r g o and Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r y . However l o s s e s as a r a t e / 1 0 0 0 s h i p y e a r a t r i s k a r e s u b s t a n t i a l l y h i g h e r f o r Ro-Ro C a r g o ( 7 1 % u p ) . The f o l l o w i n g T a b l e s u m m a r i s e s t h e s e f i n d i n g s :

5-7

TABLE 5 . 1

RO-RO CARGO RO-RO PASSENGER/FERRY

No o f i n c i d e n t s 27 19 % o f s e r i o u s B . n 7.6% c a s u a l t i e s r e s u l t i ng i n s h i p l o s s ( c a p s i z e and s i n k i n g ) R a t e / 1 0 0 0 s h i p y r s 3 . 2 5 1 . 9 0 5 . 3 . 2 . 2 A c o m p a r i s o n o f p e r c e n t a g e s o f c a p s i z e / s i n k i n g r e s u l t i n g f r o m t h e t h r e e f i r s t r e c o r d e d e v e n t s , C o l l i s i o n , C a r g o S h i f t and F o u n d e r i n g , i s shown i n T a b l e 5 . 2 f o r Ro-Ro s h i p s compared t o G e n e r a l C a r g o and non Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r y s h i p g r o u p s .

- Ro-Ro s h i p s a p p e a r s i g n i f i c a n t l y more s u s c e p t i b l e t o c a p s i z e a f t e r C o l l i s i o n and Cargo S h i f t t h a n G e n e r a l C a r g o o r P a s s e n g e r / F e r r y

- Ro-Ro C a r g o s u r v i v a b i l i t y a f t e r C o l l i s i o n i s n o t i c e a b l y i n f e r i o r t h a n G e n e r a l Cargo

Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r y and non Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r y s u r v i v a b i l i t y t o C o l l i s i o n damage may be a c c o u n t e d f o r by t h e i r r e g u l a t e d ( a n d h i g h e r )

s u b d i v i s i o n s t a n d a r d s compared t o n o n - P a s s e n g e r s h i p s t y p e s . G e n e r a l C a r g o and Ro-Ro C a r g o . ,

FIRST NON RO-RO

RECORDED GENERAL CARGO RO-RO CARGO RO-RO PASSENGER/FERRY PASSENGER/FERRY

EVENT

NO. CAPSIZE SINKING TOTAL NO CAPSIZE SINKING TOTAL NO. CAPSIZE SINKING TOTAL NO. CAPSIZE SINKING TOTAL

(RATE) C S C&S (RATE) C S C&S (RATE) C S C&S (RATE) C S C&S

COLLISION 268 1 26 27 59 3 6 9 51 2 1 3 28 0 2 2 Ü 4% 9.7% 1 0 . 1 % 5 . 1 % 1 0 . 2 % 1 5 . 3 % 3.9% 2.0% 5.9% 0 7 . 1 % 7 . 1 % ( 6 . 6 ) ( 7 . 1 ) ( 5 . 1 ) ( 3 . 3 ) CARGO 32 5 8 13 17 5 1 6 5 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 SHIFT 1 5 . 6% 25X 4 0 . 5 % 2 9 . 4 % 5.9% 3 5 . 3 % 6 0 . 0 % 6 0 . 0 % ( 0 . 8 ) ( 2 . 0 ) ( 0 . 5 ) ( 0 ) FOUNDERING 97 8 51 59 11 2 5 7 6 1 4 5 21 6 7 13 8 2% 5 2 . 6 % 6 0 . 8 % 1 8 . 2 % 4 5 . 5 % 6 3 . 7 % 1 6 . 6 % 6 6 . 7 % 8 3 . 3 % 2 8 . 6 % 3 3 . 3 % 61 .9% ( 2 . 4 ) (1 . 3 ) ( 0 . 6 ) ( 2 . 5 ) NOTES 1 . P e r i o d 1 9 7 8 - 8 7 ( 9 . 2 5 y r s ) e x c e p t f o r G e n e r a l C a r g o 1 9 8 1 - 8 3 ( 2 . 8 3 y e a r s ) as r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s a m p l e p e r i o d . 2 . P e r c e n t a g e f i g u r e s r e l a t e t o c a p s i z e / s i n k i n g as p r o p o r t i o n o f number o f i n c i d e n t s f o r t h a t s h i p t y p e and f i r s t r e c o r d e d e v e n t .

SHIP GEOMETRY AND PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS

6 . 1 S h i p G e o m e t r y ( T a s k 1)

6 . 1 . 1 Task 1 o f t h e p r o j e c t has i n v e s t i g a t e d e x i s t i n g and a l t e r n a t i v e s h i p g e o m e t r i e s i n r e s p e c t o f i n t a c t and damage s t a b i l i t y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . 6 . 1 . 2 A s s e s s m e n t o f Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r i e s a g a i n s t t h e p r o b a b a l i s t i c m e t h o d c o n t a i n e d i n IMO A . 2 6 5 R e g u l a t i o n s has been c a r r i e d o u t w i t h c o m m e n t a r y on t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n c a l c u l a t i o n r e s u l t s and c a p s i z e .

6 . 1 . 3 The i n f l u e n c e o f s h i p g e o m e t r y on c a p s i z e has been d i s c u s s e d and q u a l i t a t i v e l y a s s e s s e d i n r e l a t i o n t o ( c a s u a l t y ) e v e n t s c e n a r i o s .

6 . 1 . 4 A base s h i p ( R o - R o P a s s e n g e r / F e r r y ) has been s e l e c t e d and s y s t e m a t i c a l l y a n a l y s e d a s - b u i l t and w i t h h y p o t h e t i c a l g e o m e t r i c a l m o d i f i c a t i o n s . 6 . 1 . 5 The a l t e r n a t i v e g e o m e t r i e s h a v e c o m p r i s e d : a ) v a r i a t i o n i n f r e e b o a r d b) a d d i t i o n a l s u b - d i v i s i o n on t h e v e h i c l e d e c k ( t r a n s v e r s e and l o n g i t u d i n a l ) c ) e f f e c t s o f i n c l u s i o n o f s u p e r s t r u c t u r e 0772S

6 - 2 6 . 1 . 6 The s h i p c o n d i t i o n s a n a l y s e d i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h 6 . 1 . 3 have i n c l u d e d : a ) i n t a c t s t a b i l i t y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s b ) w a t e r on t h e v e h i c l e d e c k c ) damage s t a b i l i t y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s u n d e r t w o c o m p a r t m e n t f l o o d i n g . 6 . 2 P r o b a b i l i t y C a l c u l a t i o n s ( T a s k 2)

6 . 2 . 1 Task 2 o f t h i s p r o j e c t has i n v e s t i g a t e d e x i s t i n g and a l t e r n a t i v e s h i p g e o m e t r i e s i n r e s p e c t o f a c h i e v e m e n t o f c o m p l i a n c e w i t h t h e p r o b a b i l i s t i c damage s t a b i l i t y s t a n d a r d c o n t a i n e d i n t h e IMO D r a f t R e g u l a t i o n on s u b d i v i s i o n and damage s t a b i l i t y o f Dry C a r g o S h i p s ^ .

6 . 2 . 2 A s e r i e s o f Ro-Ro s h i p s has been s e l e c t e d ( 6 s h i p s ) and s y s t e m a t i c a l l y a n a l y s e d a s - b u i l t and w i t h h y p o t h e t i c a l g e o m e t r i c a l m o d i f i c a t i o n s . 6 . 2 . 3 The a l t e r n a t i v e g e o m e t r i e s h a v e c o m p r i s e d a ) a d d i t i o n a l s u b d i v i s i o n b e l o w t h e v e h i c l e deck ( t r a n s v e r s e ) b ) i n c r e a s e i n f r e e b o a r d c ) a d d i t i o n a l s u b d i v i s i o n on t h e v e h i c l e deck ( t r a n s v e r s e and l o n g i t u d i n a l ) . 0772S

7 - 1

RELATIVE SAFETY FOR GEOMETRIC VARIATIONS

7 .1 O b . j e c t i v e s

I n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h t h e w o r k c a r r i e d o u t u n d e r Task 1 and Task 2 o f t h e p r o j e c t , t h e e f f e c t s o f g e o m e t r i c a l v a r i a t i o n s ( s u b d i v i s i o n & f r e e b o a r d ) on t h e s a f e t y o f Ro-Ro s h i p s i s t o be a s s e s s e d and p r e d i c t e d , w h e r e p o s s i b l e . 7 . 2 Causes 7 . 2 . 1 From a r e v i e w o f t h e m e a s u r e s and n a t u r e o f g e o m e t r i c v a r i a t i o n s i n v e s t i g a t e d and p r o p o s e d i n T a s k s 1 and 2 , f r e q u e n c i e s o f o c c u r r e n c e o f ( F i r s t E v e n t ) i n c i d e n t s a n a l y s e d i n S e c t i o n 4 a r e u n l i k e l y t o c h a n g e i n t h e f u t u r e f r o m t h i s a s p e c t . 7 . 2 . 2 I n a d d i t i o n , t h e i n c o r p o r a t i o n o f g e o m e t r i c v a r i a t i o n s , as d e s c r i b e d i n T a s k s 1 and 2 , i n t o e x i s t i n g s h i p s and f u t u r e d e s i g n s i s n o t d i r e c t e d t o w a r d s r e d u c t i o n i n f r e q u e n c y o f o c c u r r e n c e o f c a s u a l t y c a u s e s / i n i t i a t i n g e v e n t s . Hence a n y b e n e f i t s a c c r u i n g w o u l d be b y - p r o d u c t s o r k n o c k - o n e f f e c t s and a r e , t h e r e f o r e , n o t d i r e c t l y q u a n t i f i a b l e . 7 . 3 C o n s e q u e n c e s 7 . 3 . 1 The p r i m e p u r p o s e o f g e o m e t r i c v a r i a t i o n s t o Ro-Ro s h i p s i s d i r e c t e d t o w a r d s i m p r o v e m e n t i n s h i p s u r v i v a b i l i t y i . e . m i t i g a t i o n o f c o n s e q u e n c e s o f a c a s u a l t y : f a t a l i t i e s , c a p s i z e o r s i n k i n g . 0772S

7 . 3 . 2 The e f f e c t i v e n e s s o r v a l u e o f t h e g e o m e t r i c v a r i a t i o n s i n v e s t i g a t e d i n T a s k s 1 and 2 i n i t i a l l y has been q u a l i t a t i v e l y a s s e s s e d i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e p o t e n t i a l t o i m p r o v e c u r r e n t r e l a t i v e s a f e t y o f Ro-Ro s h i p s i n t e r m s o f s h i p s u r v i v a b i l i t y and i s s u m m a r i s e d i n T a b l e 7 . 1 .

7 . 4 G e o m e t r i c V a r i a t i o n s : P r o b a b i l i s t i c C a l c u l a t i o n s

7 . 4 . 1 A n a l y s i s o f t h e r e s u l t s o f Task 2 has been c a r r i e d o u t i n o r d e r t o a s s e s s t h e s u r v i v a b i l i t y p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e s h i p s a s - b u i l t and w i t h h y p o t h e t i c a l m o d i f i c a t i o n s . 7 . 4 . 2 I n m o s t c a s e s t h e s h i p a s - b u i l t f a i l s t o meet t h e s u b d i v i s i o n i n d e x , h a v i n g an a t t a i n e d i n d e x A c o n s i d e r a b l y l o w e r t h a n t h e r e q u i r e d i n d e x , R. O n l y t h o s e s h i p s d e s i g n e d t o meet a one c o m p a r t m e n t s t a n d a r d ( a b i l i t y t o s u r v i v e a f t e r f l o o d i n g a n y s i n g l e c o m p a r t m e n t ) a r e seen t o meet t h e r e q u i r e d i n d e x . 7 . 4 . 3 R e v i e w o f t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e g e o m e t r i c a l m o d i f i c a t i o n s i n a c h i e v e m e n t o f t h e r e q u i r e d s u b d i v i s i o n i n d e x , R, l e a d s t o t h e f o l l o w i n g o b s e r v a t i o n s : - No s t a n d a r d v a r i a t i o n o f s h i p g e o m e t r y i s c a p a b l e o f r a i s i n g t h e a t t a i n e d i n d e x A t o t h e r e q u i r e d v a l u e , R, f o r t h e s i x s h i p s a n a l y s e d . - W h i l s t t h e c o m b i n a t i o n o f i n c r e a s i n g s u b d i v i s i o n and i n c r e a s i n g f r e e b o a r d t a k e n t o g e t h e r o r s e p a r a t e l y i m p r o v e s t h e v a l u e o f A, t h i s n e i t h e r f o l l o w s any c l e a r p a t t e r n n o r e n s u r e s c o m p l i a n c e w i t h R, ( e . g . S h i p 3 ) . 0772S

7 - 3 - A H m o d i f i e d s h i p g e o m e t r i e s ( 2 5 c a s e s ) g i v e c o m p l i a n c e f o r one c o m p a r t m e n t damage i n t h e ' l i g h t l o a d ' c o n d i t i o n , b u t o n l y s i x o f t h e s e g e o m e t r i e s g i v e c o m p l i a n c e ( i m p l i e d s u r v i v a l ) f o r a l l one c o m p a r t m e n t damages i n t h e ' f u l l l o a d ' c o n d i t i o n . Those g e o m e t r i e s t h a t c o m p l y f o r one c o m p a r t m e n t damage i n b o t h l i g h t and f u l l l o a d c o n d i t i o n s c o r r e s p o n d t o A v a l u e s a t l e a s t 35% g r e a t e r t h a n R. - 1 9 g e o m e t r y c a s e s g i v e c o m p l i a n c e f o r t w o c o m p a r t m e n t damage i n l i g h t l o a d c o n d i t i o n , b u t o n l y 3 g e o m e t r y c a s e s c o m p l y ( i m p l i e d s u r v i v a l ) w i t h t w o c o m p a r t m e n t damage i n t h e f u l l l o a d c o n d i t i o n . T h e s e g e o m e t r i e s t h a t g i v e c o m p l i a n c e f o r t w o c o m p a r t m e n t damage i n b o t h l i g h t and f u l l l o a d c o n d i t i o n c o r r e s p o n d t o an A v a l u e a t l e a s t 60% g r e a t e r t h a n R-- 15 g e o m e t r y c a s e s a c h i e v e an i n d e x A i n e x c e s s o f R. I n t h e s e c a s e s c o m p l i a n c e i s a c h i e v e d by h i g h r e l a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n o r b i a s t o t h e l i g h t l o a d c o n d i t i o n . O n l y 6 o f t h e c a s e s w h e r e A i s g r e a t e r t h a n R a c h i e v e c o m p l i a n c e f o r one c o m p a r t m e n t damage i n b o t h l i g h t and f u l l l o a d c o n d i t i o n s , w h i l s t o n l y 3 c a s e s f u r t h e r c o m p l y f o r t w o c o m p a r t m e n t damage i n b o t h l i g h t and f u l l l o a d c o n d i t i o n s .

7 . 5 G e o m e t r i c V a r i a t i o n : R e l a t i v e S a f e t y

7 . 5 . 1 The e f f e c t s on Ro-Ro S h i p s u r v i v a b i l i t y due t o t h e h y p o t h e t i c a l g e o m e t r i c v a r i a t i o n s i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o s e l e c t e d s h i p s h a v e been q u a l i t a t i v e l y a s s e s s e d i n t h e p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n s .

7 . 5 . 2 The s h i p l o s s s t a t i s t i c s ( c a p s i z e and s i n k i n g ) h a v e been c o m b i n e d w i t h t h e c a l c u l a t i o n r e s u l t s on s u b d i v i s i o n i n d e x f o r t h e s h i p s a n a l y s e d i n T a s k s 1 and 2 and a r e p r e s e n t e d i n F i g 7 . 1 .

The f o l l o w i n g o b s e r v a t i o n s a r e m a d e : ( 9 1 - t h e D r a f t S u b d i v i s i o n R e g u l a t i o n s f o r D r y C a r g o S h i p s ^ a r e a p p l i c a b l e t o s h i p s o f l e n g t h o v e r 75m. From t h e c a s u a l t y a n a l y s i s , t h i s c u t - o f f p o i n t c o i n c i d e s w i t h a h i g h p r o p o r t i o n o f Ro-Ro C a r g o s h i p l o s s e s and t h e r e f o r e i t w o u l d a p p e a r n e c e s s a r y t o r e s e l e c t t h i s p o i n t . - 95% o f Ro-Ro C a r g o s h i p l o s s e s a r e c o n t a i n e d i n t h e l e n g t h r a n g e 50m t o 140m and w i t h i n t h i s r a n g e t h e Ro-Ro s h i p s a s - b u i l t a n a l y s e d i n Task 2 a c h i e v e an a t t a i n e d i n d e x o f b e t w e e n 0 . 0 4 and 0 . 4 c o m p a r e d t o a r e q u i r e d i n d e x o f a r o u n d 0 . 5 - 95% o f Ro-Ro P a s s e n g e r / F e r r y l o s s e s a r e c o n t a i n e d i n t h e l e n g t h r a n g e 50m t o 130m ( a l m o s t i d e n t i c a l t o t h o s e f o r Ro-Ro C a r g o ) . I n t h i s r a n g e t h e Ro-Ro s h i p s a s - b u i l t a n a l y s e d i n Task 1 a c h i e v e an a t t a i n e d i n d e x o f b e t w e e n 0 . 4 5 and 0 . 8 , s i m i l a r t o t h e r e q u i r e d i n d e x f o r e a c h s h i p . F o r P a s s e n g e r s h i p s , R i s d e p e n d e n t on number o f p e r s o n s . Hence t h e ( i m p l i e d ) p r o b a b i l i t y o f s u r v i v a l e x p r e s s e d as t h e r e q u i r e d s u b d i v i s i o n i n d e x , R, f o r t w o s h i p s o f t h e same l e n g t h i s g r e a t e r f o r w h i c h e v e r s h i p i s a r r a n g e d t o c a r r y t h e l a r g e r number o f p e r s o n s ( p a s s e n g e r and c r e w c o m b i n e d ) . 7 . 5 . 3 C o m p a r i s o n o f t h e s u b d i v i s i o n i n d e x and s t a t i s t i c s on s h i p l o s s ( c a p s i z e and s i n k i n g ) due t o s i d e damage ( C o l l i s i o n and C o n t a c t ) f r o m S e c t i o n 4 . 2 i s shown i n t h e f o l l o w i n g T a b l e .

7-5

CASUALTY STATISTICS RO -RO CARGO RO-RO PASSENGER/FERRY

No o f i n c i d e n t s w i t h s i d e damage b e l o w W . L , N 20 10 No o f i n c i d e n t s r e s u l t i n g i n c a p s i z e o r s i n k i n g , L 11 2 L o s s r a t e L/N 0 . 5 5 0 . 2 S u r v i v a l r a t e , 1 - L/N 0 . 4 5 0 . 8 A t t a i n e d i n d e x A ( e x i s t i n g s h i p s ) 0 . 05 - 0 . 4 0 . 4 5 - 0 . 8 R e q u i r e d i n d e x , R 0 45 - 0 . 5 0 . 5 8 - 0 . 8 7 . 5 . 4 C o m p a r i n g t h e ' s u r v i v a l ' r a t e , 1 - L / N , w i t h t h e s u b d i v i s i o n i n d i c e s A , R i n t h e a b o v e T a b l e t h e f o l l o w i n g o b s e r v a t i o n s a r e made: - e x i s t i n g Ro-Ro C a r g o s h i p s u b d i v i s i o n r a n g e o f i n d e x c o r r e s p o n d s t o a s u r v i v a l r a t e o f 0 . 4 5 ( i e . 45% o f s i d e damage c a s e s ' s u r v i v e ' ) 0772S