Analiza ekonomiczna ryzyk wewnętrznych i zewnętrznych z perspektywy teorii gospodarki rynkowej

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National University of Water Management and Nature Resources Use Department of Accounting and Audit, Rivne

INNA LAZARYSHYNA, OLENA ZIZA

Economic analysis of internal and external risks

from the positions of the theories of the market economy

Key words: economic analysis, internal risks, external risks, theories, market economy, synergetic

effects, risks theory

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7KH FXUUHQW PDUNHW HQYLURQPHQW LV FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ D FRQWLQXLQJ LQFUHDVH RI uncertainty, elements of chaos. This applies to all entities and systems of their man- DJHPHQW7KHUHIRUHWKHVHSURFHVVHVGLGQRWSDVVWKHVHUYLFHVXEV\VWHPVIRUPDQDJH-ment system – Accounting, Analysis and Audit. Thus, it is over time the many-sided VWXG\LQJRIWKHSRVVLELOLW\RIPLQLPL]LQJXQFHUWDLQW\WKHHVWLPDWLRQRIULVNOHYHODQG LQVXUDQFHIURPGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIULVNV±LQFOXGLQJHFRQRPLFIRUWKHVHVXEV\VWHPV

Traditionally, the researches of native and foreign scholars are focused on risk analysis in risk management system, investment and financial management. One of WKHLPSRUWDQWLVVXHVUHVHDUFKHGE\VFLHQWLVWVDXGLWRUVLVULVNEDVHGDXGLWDXGLWULVN and methods of it estimation. However, almost unidentified are the systemic risks relating to accounting, analysis and audit, while in the financial risk management ULVNHYHQWVEXVLQHVVULVNLQFOXGHWKHDFFRXQWLQJULVNV$OVRIRUWRGD\WKHWKHRULHV of the market economy in relation to economic analysis were not studied.

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5LVN±LVWKHSRWHQWLDOQHJDWLYHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIDFWLRQV7KDWLVWKHSUREDELOLW\RI usefulness loss of any act or administrative decision to the interested persons. There are several interpretations of the “risk” concept that have developed historically and are continually improving.

Thus in the classical theory of risk (19thFHQWXU\IRUPXODWHGE\16HQLRUDQG J. Mill, the risk was associated with the need of damage compensation as a result of EXVLQHVVDFWLYLW\>N. Senior, 1854; J. Mill, 1909]. This is related to the then dominant LGHD RI UHVRXUFHV H[KDXVWLRQ LQFOXGLQJ ODZ RI GLPLQLVKLQJ UHWXUQV RI HDUWK E\ T. Malthus and D. Ricardo.

Later, however, with the development of economic thought and its strengthening E\PDWKHPDWLFDOLQVWUXPHQWVWKHULVNVWDUWHGWREHFRQVLGHUHGWKURXJKWKHSULVPRI utility achieving and profit maximization.

So in neoclassical theory of A. Marshall and A. Pigou the risk is considered from the point of marginal utility, particularly taking into account the size of the expected UHYHQXHDQGWKHGLPHQVLRQRILWVSRWHQWLDOIOXFWXDWLRQVDWWUDQVDFWLQJ>$0DUVKDOO@

J. von Neumann and O. Morgenstern in their work “Theory of games and economic EHKDYLRU´IRUPXODWHGWKHWKHRU\RIH[SHFWHGXWLOLW\ZKLFKVWDWHVWKDWDUDWLRQDO LQGLYLGXDOFKRRVLQJWKHPRVWGHVLUDEOHRIULVN\DOWHUQDWLYHVVHHNVWRPD[LPL]HWKH H[SHFWHGYDOXHRIWKHXWLOLW\IXQFWLRQ>-1HXPDQQ20RUJHQVWHUQ@

$ODQ:LOOHWLQKLV³(FRQRPLF7KHRU\RI5LVNDQG,QVXUDQFH´ILUVWDWWHPSWHG to highlight the economic aspect of risk in terms of uncertainty. He considered that ³ULVNDQGXQFHUWDLQW\DUHWKHREMHFWLYHDQGVXEMHFWLYHDVSHFWVRIDSSDUHQWYDULDELOLW\ LQWKHFRXUVHRIQDWXUDOHYHQWV´>$:LOOHWW@

The first scientific attempt of delimitation of the concepts of risk and uncertainty was the work of one of the neoclassical representatives, the American economist )UDQN.QLJKW±³5LVNXQFHUWDLQW\DQGSURILW´,QLWKHVWDWHVWKDWULVNLVMXVW VXFK XQFHUWDLQW\ ZKLFK FDQ EH WHFKQLFDOO\ HYDOXDWHG DQG PHDVXUHG 7KLV FRQFHS-WLRQEHFDPHWKHILUVWVWHSLQWKHILQDQFLDOULVNPRGHUQWKHRU\GHYHORSPHQWWKHPDLQ SXUSRVHRIZKLFKLVRSWLPL]DWLRQRIULVNIXQFWLRQ>).QLJKW@

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1HRLQVWLWXWLRQDOULVNWKHRU\SURSRVHGE\IDPRXVHFRQRPLVWV+DUU\ Max Markowitz and William Forsyth Sharpe. H. Markowitz idea is that the financial markets have two

REMHFWLYHVILUVWLQFUHDVLQJWKHH[SHFWHGUHYHQXHDQGVHFRQGO\UHGXFLQJWKHULVNE\ revenue uncertainty degree. It is suggested that H. Markowitz proposed to consider DVWKHULVNOHYHOLQGLFDWRUWKHGHYLDWLRQRIUDQGRPYDULDEOHH[SHFWHGYDOXHSURILW IURPLWVPHDQYDOXH±YDULDQFHDQGVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ7KHSULQFLSDOFRQWULEXWLRQ WRWKHWKHRU\RIULVNE\6KDUSHZDVWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIWRWDOULVNLQWRWZRFRQGLWLRQDO SDUWVV\VWHPDWLFULVNDVDUHVXOWRIJHQHUDOHFRQRPLFVKLIWVDQGVSHFLILF±DVDUHVXOW RIVHSDUDWHHQWHUSULVHHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\>L. Romanenko, A. Korotaeva, p. 122].

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‡ institutional and structural risks;

‡ WKHODFNRIEDODQFHEHWZHHQVXSSO\DQGGHPDQGIRUDQDO\WLFDOLQIRUPDWLRQ ‡ the existence of political cycles in the economy;

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‡ WKHODFNRIPDWHULDOLQFHQWLYHVIRUVXFKODERULQWHQVLYHDQGUHVSRQVLEOHZRUN as an analytical;

‡ financial factors; ‡ motivational factors; ‡ accounting systemic risk.

Today in Ukraine are only a few guidelines related to economic analysis. Almost all of them are associated only with financial analysis and does not take into account SRVVLEOHWHFKQLFDO±HFRQRPLFPDQDJHPHQWLQQRYDWLRQDQGRWKHUW\SHVRIDQDO\VLV 7KH V\QHUJLVWLF HIIHFW RQ WKH HFRQRPLF DQDO\VLV ULVN DOVR KDV WKH LQDGHTXDWH legislation in the accounting field, the mismatch of financial accounting regulations DQGWD[ODZVRUFRQVFLRXVLQDELOLW\WRIROORZWKH/DZRI8NUDLQH³2Q$FFRXQWLQJ DQG)LQDQFLDO5HSRUWLQJLQ8NUDLQH´DVDPHQGHGEHFDXVHRILQWHUHVWVFRQIOLFW

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‡ the market capacity and structure, where analytical services are offered; ‡ the analytical services prices – they will increase according to the growth of

complexity and amount of analytical work;

‡ WKHOHYHORIEXVLQHVV±WKHKLJKHULVWKHSURSRUWLRQRIPHGLXPDQGODUJHEXVL-nesses in Ukraine, the greater is the need of economic analysis;

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‡ the political parties;

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Most analysis agencies or administrations are centered on ministries, depart-PHQWVUHJLRQDOERGLHVRIH[HFXWLYHSRZHUEDQNVSKHUHDQGLQYHVWPHQWFRPSDQLHV namely on the area of significant financial flows, where the risk level of inefficient PDQDJHPHQWVROXWLRQVGHSHQGVRQWKHTXDOLW\RIDQDO\WLFDOGDWD

The economic analysis risk “weight” in management system increases signifi-cantly due to the risks synergy effect associated with accounting – accounting risks LQFUHDVHWKHQHJDWLYHHIIHFWVRIHFRQRPLFDQDO\VLVDVDPDQDJHPHQWV\VWHPGDWDEDVH

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The reducing or elimination of identified negative economic analysis environmental factors through their monitoring will enhance the competitiveness of analytical services, improve the economic analysis functional characteristics level and, therefore, will FRQWULEXWHWKHJURZWKRIRZQHUVPDQDJHUVDQGRWKHUVWDNHKROGHUVHFRQRPLFEHQHILWV

7KHVROXWLRQRIDERYHRXWOLQHGSUREOHPVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHHFRQRPLFDQDO\VLVULVN DVDVFLHQWLILFDQGSUDFWLFDODFWLYLW\VKRXOGEHOLQNHGSULPDULO\WRWKHVWUHQJWKHQLQJ of analytical studies executor moral and material motivation; regulation of economic DQDO\VLV E\ XVLQJ WKH HYLGHQFHEDVHG DQDO\VLV PHWKRGV IURP WKHVWDWH LQVWLWXWLRQV further harmonization of Ukrainian legislation; the engagement of market regulation mechanisms of economic analysis demand and supply; the awareness of economic analysis necessity to reduce the uncertainty and risk in decision-making.

Urgent in view of the trends and prospects of economic analysis development in the VWFHQWXU\LVWKHFRQFOXVLRQWKDWWKHHFRQRPLFDQDO\VLVIDFHVZLWKPDQ\SUREOHPV )LUVWRIDOODVLQJOHV\VWHPRIHFRQRPLFDQDO\VLVQHHGVWREHFUHDWHG7KHSURYLGLQJ RILQGLYLGXDOFRPPXQLW\DQGQDWLRQDOQHHGVLQHFRQRPLFDQDO\VLVLQ8NUDLQHFDQEH reached if the risks of external and internal environment are neutralized and minimized.

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%LEOLRJUDSK\ 1. ɅɨɛɚɧɨɜɚȺȺɑɭɝɭɧɨɜɚȺȼ (ɪɟɞ ɗɧɰɢɤɥɨɩɟɞɢɹɮɢɧɚɧɫɨɜɨɝɨɪɢɫɤɦɟɧɟɞɠɦɟɧɬɚ, Ⱥɥɶ-ɩɢɧɚɉɚɛɥɢɲɟɪ 2. ɒɟɪɟɦɟɬȺȾɋɭɣɰȼɉ, ȺɭɞɢɬɍɱɟɛɧɢɤɞɨɩɢɩɟɪɟɪɚɛɂɇɎɊȺɆ 2001. 3. ȼɿɬɥɿɧɫɶɤɢɣȼȼȼɟɥɢɤɨɿɜɚɧɟɧɤɨȽȱɄɿɥɶɤɿɫɧɟɨɰɿɧɸɜɚɧɧɹɪɢɡɢɤɭɭɮɿɧɚɧɫɨɜɨɟɤɨɧɨɦɿɱɧɿɣ ɫɮɟɪɿÄɎɿɧɚɧɫɢɍɤɪɚʀɧɢ´QR 4. ɑɚɥɵɣȼɆɚɲɤɨɜɆɇɟɩɪɚɜɢɬɟɥɶɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɟɚɧɚɥɢɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɟɰɟɧɬɪɵɩɪɟɞɥɨɠɟɧɢɟɧɚɮɨɧɟ ɨɬɥɨɠɟɧɧɨɝɨɫɩɪɨɫɚɁɟɪɤɚɥɨɧɟɞɟɥɢQRɹɧɜɚɪɹ

5. Marshall A., Principles of Economics, Macmillan and Co. Ltd., London, 1920, KWWSZZZHFRQOLE RUJOLEUDU\0DUVKDOOPDU3KWPO

6. Knight F.H., Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, 1st edition,0$+DUW6FKDIIQHU 0DU[+RXJKWRQ Mifflin Co., %RVWRQ 1921, KWWSZZZHFRQOLERUJOLEUDU\.QLJKWNQ583KWPO

7. Nassau Senior W., Political Economy, Richard Griffin and Co., London,KWWSZZZHFRQOLE RUJOLEUDU\6HQLRUVQ3KWPO

8. Mill J., Stuart J., Principles of Political Economy with Some of Their Applications to Social Phi-losophy, 7th edition, Longmans, Green and Co., London, 1909, KWWSZZZHFRQOLERUJOLEUDU\ 0LOOPO3KWPO

9. Neumann J., Morgenstern O., Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, 6th edition, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1953, KWWSDUFKLYHRUJVWUHDPWKHRU\RIJDPHVDQGPESWKHRU\ RIJDPHVDQGPESBGMYXW[W

10. Willett A.H., The Economic Theory of Risk and Insurance, 7KH&ROXPELD8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV New York, The Macmillan Company, Agents, London, 1901,36.LQJ 6RQ, KWWSZZZDUFKLYHRUJ GHWDLOVFX

11. ȺɥɟɤɫɚɧɞɪɨɜɚɆ.Ɇ.,ɍɥɥɭɛɿɽɜɚɄ.Ʉ., Ɋɨɡɜɢɬɨɤɬɟɨɪɿʀɪɢɡɢɤɿɜɜɟɤɨɧɨɦɿɱɧɿɣɧɚɭɰɿɟɜɨɥɸɰɿɣɧɢɣ ɩɿɞɯɿɞ, “ȼɿɫɧɢɤɀɞɬɭ”KWWSH]WXLU]WXHGXXDSGI

12. Shumpeter J.A., The Theory of Economic Development. An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle, 10th_{HGLWLRQKWWSERRNVJRRJOHFRPXDERRNV"LG 2=Z:F2}

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