Value for effort in ship research

1

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RESEARCH into research has become a field of study in its own right. Part of the reason for this is the very great in-crease in research expenditure in all the manufacturing countries: between the triennial surveys of 1962 and 1965 U.K. expenditure on research and development by the manufacturing industries rose

from £378m to £445m, and shipbuilding took its part in the increase.

The size of the qualified staff involved in the shipbuilding industry is small in comparison with most other manufactur-ing industries and of those graduates who are employed within the industry only a small percentage are used for research and development. Today a level of

re-search is necessary for the survival of a firm or industry. The company which ceases to innovate can only survive as a

profit making concern for a limited period: the question arising is, what is

the minimum investment in research necessary to guarantee survival? The

in-vestment is in both money and person-nel: while the allocation of financial support to research can be changed

over-night, an adequate supply of qualified staff must be the result of a long-term

plan. The research worker who will

begin to produce the new ideas a decade from now is in school today. It is

ap-propriate that the Geddes and Chapman Reports should be read together in con-sidering the future of ship research. High talent is likely to be relatively thin upon the ground during the next few years. The relative measure of our talent capacity

can be brought into sharp relief by a

statement recently made by Dr. Hisasho Shinto, vice-president of I.H.I., that "At present, the number of naval architects with university degrees . . . in the Japanese shipbuilding industry exceeds 5,000 . . .

" and from

the Chapman report "... the output of naval

archi-tecture graduates (in Japan) may rise in * Extracts from a paper read before the North East Institution of Engineers &

Shipbuilders.

R. L. Townsin, B.Sc., Ph.D., C.Eng.

Lecturer in naval architecture and shipbuilding

University of Newcastle upon Tyne

the next few years to about 200 per

annum." In a recent paper by Mr. I.

Takezawa the number of graduates em-ployed on technical work as a percentage of the total of employees, is given as 79% in a Japanese shipbuilding concern em-.ploying 36,500 men, and this figure is to be compared with those in the last

column of Table 1: with this figure in

mind it is not surprising to learn that

the Japanese shipbuilding industry has been absorbing 5-6% of the total of all engineers graduating from Japanese universities. The absorption of graduates by the U.K. shipbuilding industry is by comparison 0.25% of all technologists graduating. It may well be that Japan

has overstocked its technical manpower in shipbuilding and the effect on other industries will show eventually; mean-time this is the measure of the

competi-tion.

Input and OUfflut

The size of the input effort can be

D

TABLE I

measured by the number and talents of the persons involved and the money and time invested in the effort. As an ex-ample, the combined expenditure of the British Ship Research Association and the ship division of the National Physical Laboratory for the year 1964/65, is given in the Geddes Report as just short of £2m and these establishments would have contributed a major part of the national ship research effort. These two establishments employ about 130

tech-nical staff, most of whom would be

graduates or their equivalent. In the

same way, for a particular research pro-ject, the staff and time involved can he counted and the expenditure, including overheads, assessed.

An important part of a research worker's effort is concerned with his own growth and development. If the research worker is regarded as a piece of

equip-ment he is evidently on hire, and the hire charges increase with time, in recog-nition of the fact that, unlike most

equip-Alternative figures A and B are given for shipbuilding and those In line A correspond with those above since only personnel in the constituent firms are being considered, which means, for example, that

graduates in industrial research associations are not included. Since a considerable part of the national effort in ship research has been centred on B.S.R.A. and because of the special services of classification

societies a more accurate reflection of the qualified manpower deployment will be obtained by taking these into account. Accordingly line B includes surveyors and graduates in research organISations.

Manufacturing Industry

Engineers, Technologists and Scientists

Employed 1965 On research and development Total °% of qualified staff on R. and D. Qualified staff, as % of total employees Aircraft

...

4,192 6,886 61 27 Electronics

...

7,136 11,834 60 36

Chemical and allied Industries . 8,299 19.907 42 46

Electrical engineering 3485 9,214 38 19

Metal manufacture

...

2,172 7,213 30 12

Food, drink and tobacco 1,309 4,584 29 0.6

Textiles

...

1,498 5,156 29 04

Mechanical engineering 5,176 21,278 24 12

Motor vehicles 712 2,811 25 0.6

Graduate technical staff employed 1964

Shipbuilding and repair. A 15 206 7 04

Shipbuilding, repair, research and classification

society B 81 321 25 0.6

ARCH:E

692

Shipbuilding and Shipping Record, November 16, 1967 ment, he is supposed to appreciate as the

months go by. The research worker is the sine qua non of a research organisa-tion, whereas, for example, in an assembly industry, the tendency is to dis-pense with labour. The growth and

development of the research worker is therefore important to the organisation employing him and some investment in him is important.

The output of a group of research

workers is more difficult to estimate. It

should be possible to divide a research worker's time under a number of head-ings; four important ones are direct

ser-vices to industry, directed research, self-generated research and general administrative activity.

Three examples of direct services to industry are model tests of resistance and propulsion characteristics for a new

design, preparation of technical guide lines and the prediction of vibration characteristics. Sometimes the experi-ence of routine services can give rise to a published paper; usually the work will be summarised in a report.

Much of most research workers' time and much of a research Organisation's budget is taken up in the prosecution of directed research. The end product of

this type of work is usually contained in a learned society paper with more

detailed results in reports to industry or other sponsoring and interested groups. When research is self-generated, the worker is concerned with following up an idea of his own and he makes his own judgments about the likely value of his work. Judgments like these influence him in his choice of topic. Usually, he will report his results to a learned society.

Under the heading of general adminis-trative activity, it is more the time effort than the money effort which is involved. It is possib:e, for example, to spend much time acting as a technical secretary for various gatherings, and careful thought must be given to the research time being lost set against the value of the delibera-tions of the gathering.

The principal output of a research workr consists of the facts which he discovers and the ideas which he

dis-seminates, but another important output is the general ambience of enthusiasm and prospection which he can generate; this latter is difficult to assess, but most

cf the facts and ideas will be

com-mitted to paper. His principal

out-put is

therefore contained in reports

for internal circulation, reports for outside bodies,

which may be

con-fidential, and public papers before the learned societies and elsewhere.

Example of input and output

If the output of a research _{group is} considered to be only the reports and papers written, then the output for a

given programme can be discovered and laid upon the tabie. The input effort in terms of money and the involvement of staff would be more difficult to discover for anyone outside the research group. Approximate information for the input and output of the B.S.R.A. is generally

avaiiable for the year 1958, but more detailed figures have been provided. £268,000 was spent, including the expert-diture on marine engineering research. The number of qualified staff employed

was 33, of whom 21 were graduates, loaned to the B.S.R.A. for its atomic energy team. Of the total expenditure £89,000 was incurred extra-murally on research carried out in universities and other laboratories, e.g. the ship division of N.P.L., where B.S.R.A. spent £8,500. It has been estimated that 22 graduates were employed full-time on this

extra-mural activity and 57 graduates were

employed part-time. Depending upon which figure is selected the cost of re-search per graduate can vary from £12,800 per man if only B.S.R.A. staff are included, to £5,300 per man if all the

full-time graduates are taken into

ac-count. This compares with the figure of

£6,000 per man which is given as the annual cost of empoying a f uly qualified scientist or engineer on research and de-velopment associated with shipbuilding

and marine engineering (including the cost of providing supporting staff). There is some doubt, however, about the mean-ing of "fully qualified scientist or en-gineer."

The output of reports and

technical memoranda during this period, inciuding those concerned with marine engineering, was 34. Finally, this gives an average cost per report of £7,900 and an output of 067 of a report per graduate employed full-time.

In the year 1965/66, the total expendi-ture of B.S.R.A. was £1,180,000. The employed B.S.R.A. staff of graduate or equivalent status was 78, and 61 reports and technical memoranda were issued to industry. Of the total expenditure £320,000 was incurred extra-murally which would probably mean the employ-ment of a number in excess of 50 gradu-ates full-time. The cost of research per graduate for 1965/66 was £15,100 if only B.S.R.A. staff are included, and a figure probably less than £9,200 if all the full-time graduates are taken into account. The small increases in these figures com-pared with those for 1958 might be ex-pected. The average cost per report has risen from £7,900 in 1958 to £19,300 in

1965, and the number of reports per graduate employed full-time has dropped from 0.67 in 1958 to a figure probably somewhat less than 0.48 in 1965. The changes in these figures between 1958 and 1965 may reflect an increased use of the B.S.R.A. staff for their valuable direct services to industry: the changes also

reflect an expenditure of £146,000 on the newly formed shipowner division from which no output could be expected until it was well established.

The analysis so far exemplifies the diffi-culties in assessing the input and output of research work. Most of the activity of the B.S.R.A. is confidential to the in-dustry which supports ir, which is proper, and, while the outsider may find it _{difficult to make assessments of the} productivity of its research, internally detailed figures for expenditure and

manpower are available. The figures quoted above are by way of being illus-trations of quantities rather than a close analysis, and it would be unwise to make too close a comparison between 1958 and 1965 based on these figures alone. A deficiency in the above type of overall analysis lies in the initial assumption that the total output of a research organisa-tion, such as B.S.R.A., is solely defined by its reports and memoranda; some of its activities are concerned with trouble-shooting for industry and providing in-formation services, for example. Also,

it would be naïve and misleading _to

determine the value of research output

in terms of the quantity of paper pro-duced.

An estimate of the average produc-tivity, such as that sketched above, misses

the point of estimating the value of re-search output in relation to the cost. An average figure for the productivity of a whole research station masks the effort which is giving a valuable return, as well as the research project which is a drain of brain and money.

A research Visitor, with a roving com-mission to meet, individually, the _two

hundred or so research workers con-cerned with ship and shipbuilding

tech-nology, might help these workers to direct their efforts towards the maximum benefit for the country, as well as giving the Visitor a very clear picture of the balance of effort. _{The question of the} national balance of effort in ship and shipbuilding research is certainly one that needs continuous consideration and is aligned, to some extent, with the bal-ance of emphasis in the higher education and training for the profession.

Choice of projects

It will be evident that the efficiencyof

the ship research effort is determined in part by the choice of projects. All too

often projects are chosen and budgets

assigned, which, with the advantage of hind sight, can be seen not to have

pro-duced the output which might have been expected and sufficient value has not been achieved from the input effort.

The field of ship research is infinite, but the nation is in business as designers, builders and operators of ships for the world, so that the research programme is

planned to assist this purpose; in other

words, the purpose of ship and ship-building research is to improve the

profitability of the industry, to promote

the national good and to work in the public interest. Recognition of this pur-pose, however, tends to lead to a tabula-tion of unsolved problems, to each of

which is assigned an order of urgency; the priority tagged list, together with the finance, is then given to the research

workers in order that they may produce

solutions to the problems. Such an approach can lead to inefficiencies where a great effort is needed to sove a

prob-lem and the solution does not have a commensurate value. Continuous moni-toring of research efficiency is necessary and sometimes difficult termination deci-sions are involved. Perhaps a better em-phasis is to allow the individual research worker,1 knowing his talents and the re-sources of staff and equipment that are available, to offer programmes of study, all of which are likely to produce good value for effort; a selection may thn be made for financial support. A necessary

corollary is, that it would benefit the

country if all those engaged in ship re-search had a personal experience of the

problems of the industry which they serve. An extension of existing inter-change arrangements together with the

setting up of more farsighted liaison

might be considered. At the moment, the shipbuilding industry is very much concerned with the urgencies of day-to-day problems and there is little time for hard-pressed staff to give thought to the future. The planting of "brain cells"

within shipyards by the secondment of research workers to industry would allow forward thinking, from a more relaxed group, to be reported to the Board. Such schemes might accelerate progre6s to-wards the shipbuiIdin technology out-lined in the recent Andrew Laing lecture by Dr. R. Hurst.

Value of output, judged from reports The value of a research worker's efforts are finally judged by his peer group or by practitioners in industry. Where papers are published, an initial assess-ment of value is usually contained in the

discussion. These assessments are of

great importance to all, not the least to the author, for whom they may constitute the acid test. A meeting for the reading of a paper and its subsequent discussion, supplemented by written discussion at a

later date, is the most detailed assess-ment of value normally given to

pub-lished work. Because of the importance of deriving value from effort, more atten-tion might be paid to channels of

com-munication and to ways and means of

arranging for this initial assessment by

discussion. As the years pass by and

more workers are operating in the field

of ship and shipbuilding research, it

be-comes apparent that more papers are

being published and an ever-increasing percentage are receiving only written dis-cussion or no public disdis-cussion at all.

Many research workers do not see it as a part of their function to communi-cate their ideas efficiently: the notion of

"selling" their product is anathema to

many: but a good idea lost, through

poor communication, has lost much of

its value and much of the effort has

been wasted. \Vhere the results of

re-search work are given, in the first instance, directly to the industry, in con-fidential reports, it is even more

impor-tant to ensure a good communication of facts and ideas between the man in the research station and the man in the

ship-yard, for there is much that they can

learn from each other. The district con-ferences of the B.S.R.A. are an acknow-ledgment of this need.

Annua! assessments of relative

efficiency

The value of research output is the

most difficult assessment to make, yet judgments are commonly made, at least qualitatively.

The most enigmatic and ambivalent judgment is that made when a report marked "confidential" is locked in a safe but never read. Where a paper is

pub-lished with discussion, these and similir judgments are made at greater length, with detail and by a numler of experts.

In the final analysis, the value of a particular industrial research project will lie in the increased profit to industry

re-DETAILED STUDIES have begun on two revolutionary barge-carrying freighters

that may be

built

for the Western

Australian State Shipping Service.

The chairman of

the W.A. Coastal

Shipping Commission, Sir Ragnar

Garrett, estimates that the service could operate at a profit if $AlSm was spent on freighters and necessary port

facili-ties.

A naval architect from the Yarrow

Admiralty Research Department, Glas-gow, visited Perth to discuss the first stage of a feasibility study he had carried out on the project. He has now returned to Scotland to begin detailed work which will include tank tests of models of the barge-carrying vessels.

Sir Ragnar hopes these studies will

be complete by next February. He said he was confident the vessels would

en-able the service to operate at a profit.

suiting from the application of the re-search to the production and the product. In certain manufacturing industries it is

possible to carry out such an analysis over a decade and draw conc:usions about the value of certain research topics to the industry. Where the value of

research and development is being con-sidered within the confines of one com-pany, a closer and more objective analysis of the profitability of investment in re-search and development is possible. In the shipbuilding industry, however, such an objective approach would be

ex-tremely difficult; the time lag before

re-search pays off is too long for current guidance and the measurement of the

improved profitability of shipbuilding due to any particular research project is, in many cases, impossible of assessment. At least it is clear that the value to

the country of a particular research out-put is relative to the other research work done during that year.

The use of a subjective, reative rating system, to determine value, avoids the almost impossible task of estimating the

monetary profit to the nation from a

given research project and hence deter-mining by how much this is greater than the cost. It assumes, however, that the total absolute value of the national ship research programme is worth the effort; the relative rating system then points to the areas of investigation which are most

profitable. Finally, to obtain an indica-tion of the relative efficiency of a given research project, the total rating must be related to the input in terms of money spent and men-years expended.

Barge-carrying vessels were first de-veloped by a U.S. shipping company after many years of research. They

carried 20 barges each with 200 tons of cargo. One of these ships could do the work of two existing State Shipping Service vessels, and would not need to go into port. It could offload four or five barges at Port Hedland, for example, and continue north.

The new ships would be capable of

making 25 round trips to Darwin a year

compared with nine by ships of the preseni fleet. With such ships the ser-vice could malce a profit in its first year of operation including provision for debt

charges. Sir Ragnar said a lot of money would have to be spent on developing terminals in a number of northern W.A. ports. Barge-carrying ships could meet the expected 15,000- to 20,000-ton in-crease in cargo for seven or eight years.

Shipbuilding and Shipping Record, November 16, 1967 693

AUSTRALIA