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SINCE

GRANITE CITY S T E E L

T h e M a g a z i n e o f M e t a l w o r k i n g a n d M e t a l p r o d u c i n g

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m h 1,

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E S T A B L I S H E D 1 8 8 2

■vc<ri5XA,NT—o n e su rface o f so lid stainless

GRANITE CITY STEEL COMPANY

fa b ric a te d o n m ild

G R A N I T E C I T Y I L L I N O I S

ra te u n d e r

C h i c a g o • C l e v e l a n d Denver * Hous ton • Indi­

a n a p o l i s • K a n s a s City Los A n geles

L o u i s v i l l e • M e m p h i s M ilwaukee * M inneapo­

lis • Moline » N e w York St. Louis

■1 PLATE . TERNE PLATE . ELECTRICAL SHEETS . TIN MILL PRODUCTS . PORCELAIN EHAMELING SHEETS

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C e rta in ly these a re n o days to h av e y o u r skilled m en m a k in g unnecessary set-ups. T h a t ’s why this e x a m p le o l a H e a ld Bo r e- Ma t i c e n g in e ered for a p a rtic u la r p ro d u c tio n jo b , sh o u ld in terest you. I t p e rm its m a k in g t set-up do fo ra s m any as

4

precisio n o p e ra tio n s.

M ore o p e ra tio n s p e r set-up boosts p ro d u c tio n . B u t m o re th a n th a t, w ith a Bo r e- Ma t i c you get im p ro v e d re la tiv e accuracy o f m u ltip le surfaces.

Y ou decrease dow n tim e. F lo o r space is conserved.

A ll-ro u n d v e rsa tility p e rm its y o u r Bo r e- Ma t i c

to h a n d le b o rin g , tu rn in g , facing, cham fering, grooving, a n d fly-cutting. You can m ach in e

stra ig h t a n d ta p e r surfaces; curves a n d irre g u la r shapes. P erfo rm all these o p e ra tio n s singly, sim ­ u ltan eo u sly , progressively o r in c o m b in a tio n . Besides, Bo r e- Ma t ic s o fte n e lim in a te s o th e r finishing o p e ra tio n s. T h e y also c a n be u sed for ro u g h in g a n d sem i-finishing.

E ven if you th in k you k n o w th e Bo r e- Ma t i c

story— let us b rin g you u p to d a te o n it. Y o u ’ll find Bo r e- Ma t i c p e rfo rm a n c e facts p re tty con­

v in c in g p ro o f th a t it is th e p recisio n an sw er to faster, b etter, less costly v o lu m e p ro d u c tio n .

T H E H EA LD M A C H IN E COM PANY W O R C E S T E R 6, MASS.

m m / i A

I N T E R N

{LORE

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EDITORIAL STAFF

E . L . S h a n e r E d ito r-in -C h ie f E . C . K r e u t z b e r g

E d ito r

Wm. M . Ro o n e y Ir w i n H . Su c h

N ew s E d ito r E n g in ee rin g E d ito r G u y H u b b a r d M ach ine T ool E d ito r J. D . K n o x

Steel P la n t E d ito r

D o n S. C a d o t A rt E d ito r

ASSOCIATE EDITORS

G . H . M a n l o v e , W . J . C a m p b e l l G . W . B i r d s a l l , F . R . B r i g g s , D . B. W i l k i n

N ew York: B. K. P r i c e , L . E . B r o w n e P ittsb u rg h : R. L . H a r t f o r d C hicago: E . F . R o ss D etro it: A . H . A l l e n

W ash in g to n: L . M . L a m m Lon do n: V i n c e n t D e l p o r t

ASSISTANT EDITORS

J . C. S u l l i v a n , R. W . S h e s t a c , J. M . W h e l a n , A . J. F i n g u l i n , V a n c e B e l l

EDITORIAL CORRESPONDENTS

R. W . K i n c e y B irm in g h am , A la.

G e o r g e R . R e i s s Y oungstow n, O.

J . V i o n P a p i n St. L ouis

L . C. F e l d m a n B uffalo, N . Y.

S a m u e l S. C a r r C in c in n ati, O .

F . S. T o b i n T o ro n to , O nt.

L u t h e r W h i t e m a n 1 4 1 4 P a d u c a h St., L os A ngeles, C alif.

R o b e r t B o t t o r f f 4 1 5 B u sh St., S an F ran c isco , C alif.

R. C . H i l l

4 0 8 M ario n S t., S eattle, W ash .

BUSINESS STAFF

G . O . H a y s

Business M an ager

R . C. J a e n k e C . H . B a i l e y A dvertising M an a g e r A d v ertisin g Service N ew Y ork, E . W . K r e u t z b e r g , K . A . Z ö l l n e r

P ittsb u rg h , S. H . J a s p e r , B. C . S n e l l C h icago, L . C. P e l o t t , V . W . V o l k C lev elan d , D . C . K i e f e r , H . G. R o w l a n d

Los A ngeles, F . J . F u l l e r J . W . Z u b e r C ircu latio n M an ag er

M AIN OFFICE

P e n to n B u ild in g , C le v ela n d 13 , O hio

BRANCH OFFICES

N ew York 1 7 ...16 E a st 4 3 rd St.

C hicago 11 ... 5 2 0 N o rth M ich igan Ave.

P ittsb u rg h 19 ... 2 8 0 0 K oppers B uilding D e tro it 2 ... 6 5 6 0 Cass Ave.

W ash in g to n 4 ...9 5 6 N a tio n a l Press B ldg.

C in c in n ati 2 ... 2 0 3 0 C arew T ow er Los A ngeles 4 . . . 1 30 N . N ew H a m p sh ire Ave.

L o n d o n 2 C ax to n St., W estm in ste r, S .W . 1

Published b y Th e Pe n t o n Pu b l i s h i n g Co., Penton Cleveland 13, Ohio, E. L. Sh a n e r, President and 1 rcasurcr; G . O. Ha y s, Vice President and G enera!

M anager; R. C. Ja e n k e, Vice President; F. G. St e i n e- b a c i i, Vice President and Secretary; E. L. We r n e r, Assistant Treasurer.

M em ber, A udit Bureau of C irculations; Associated Business Papers, Inc., and N ational Publishers' Association.

Published every M onday. Subscription in the United States and possessions, C anada, Mexico, C uba, C entral and South America, one year $6; tw o years S I 0; all other countries, one vear $12. Single copies (current issues) 25c. Entered as second class m atter a t the postofnee a t Cleveland, under the A ct of M arch 3, 1879. Copyright 1945 by th e Penton Publishing Co.

1 Ü 9 U5\l

/ £ o

T h e M a g a z i n e o f M e t a l w o r k i n g a n d M e t a l p r o d u c i n g

J A N U Ä R Y 1 , 1 9 4 5

Volume 116—Number 1

1945 Yearbook of Industry Issue

Price $2.00 per copy

F E A T U R E S

As the E d ito r Views the N e w s ... . / . . .,. ■ ■ 175

Title P a g e ... 179

Forew ord ... 180

Ind u stry ’s W ork Sheet for 1945 ... 182

L abor Extends Political Influence ... 184

Unions become influential in determining national policies In d u stry ’s C hanging W ar Task Com plicates Reconversion Problem 186 Steel In d u stry Faces A djustm ent Problem s ... 194

Scrapping of uneconomic open-hearth furnaces expected after war Automobiles ... 198 Containers 208

A i r c r a f t ... 200

Shipbuilding ... 202

A griculture ... 204

R ailroads ... 206

Dom estic Appliances ... 210

C o n s tru c tio n ... 212

M achine T o o l s ... 214

M achinery and E q u ip m en t . . 216

Oil, Gas and W a t e r ... 218

W indow s of W ashington ... 220

Foreign relations to demand major attention of 79th Congress Mirrors of M otordom ... 229

Autom otive industry acclaims war record; disturbed by labor trends W ing Tips ... 238

Mass production techniques win air supremacy for U. S. The Business T r e n d ... 246

Accent on lagging programs as industry enters fourth year of war Private E nterprise Faces T est in E urope ... 302

Fight between capitalism and socialism impelled by war conditions British Steel Industry Looks A head to P e a c e tim e ... 304

W artim e bontrols expected to be relaxed gradually N azi P roduction Collapsing ... 306

Large part of facilities destroyed or lost to Allied armies

T E C H N I C A L

T echnical W ork Sheet for 1945 . . . . . . 254

Iro n an d Steel Production . . . 256 D raw ing and Stam ping . . . . . 287

Casting ... . . . 270 Joining and W e l d i n g ... . . 290

M etallurgy ... . . . 274 H e a t T reating ... .. . . 291

Pow der M etallurgy ... . . . 278 Surface T r e a tm e n t... . . . 294

M achining ... . . . 279 L ubrication ... . . . 300

Forging ... . . . 286 M aterials H a n d l i n g ... . . . 301

M A R K E T S

308 Dom estic Steel M arket Sum m ary ... 1944 output m eets war demands; facilities not fully utilized U nited States Pig Iro n and Steel In g o t P r o d u c tio n ... 310

Price H istory ... 311

W eekly M arket Sum m ary ... 321

M arket Prices and Composites ... 322

N E W S

Steel Earnings D rop D espite R ecord P r o d u c tio n ... 362

Review of Nickel Ind u stry ... 363

M en o i Ind u stry ... 410

O bituaries ... 412

C onstruction and E nterprise ... 414 I n d e x to a d v e r t i s e r s...

W h e re -T o -B u y P roducts In d e x , S ectio n 2 o f th is issue

419

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S ep a ra tely V entilated B low ­ er M otor

. . .

fo r cable reels . . . or clutches where pow er m ust sta y on con­

tin u a lly. M otor-driven fa n keeps large motor cool re­

gardless o f continuous stall.

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AS THE EDITOR VIEWS THE NEWS

January 1, 1945

lew Year’s Day, 19451

Some people think th a t N ew Year’s day is an appropriate time to check one’s b ear­

ings, calculate one’s position and chart a course for the ensuing 12 months. If this p rac­

tice is good for an individual, it ought to be beneficial for a nation. Particularly it ought to be helpful to our U nited States of Am erica, w hose 135,000,000 citizens a t the mo-, m ent are som ew hat confused and disillusioned.

If we will check our bearings carefully and honestly, we will be forced to adm it th at we are off our course. O ur position is not w hat w e th o u g h t it was or w h a t i t should be. I f w e will check farther, to see w here w e m ade our m istake in reckoning*

we will find th a t it was due to gross carelessness, over-optimism, sm ugness, com placency and, w orst of all, a terrific national conceit.

T he cold fact is th a t w e w ent into this w ar w ith the idea th a t w e are a nation of superm en, th a t we can do anything b e tte r th a n any o ther nation can do it and th a t we are so g reat in every respect th a t we could w age the w ar w ith one h an d tied behind our back, so to speak. W ith this inflated conception of our prow ess, we laid plans on a grand scale and executed them in a highly creditable m anner. Actually, w e did a job th a t no other nation could have done.

B ut good as the job was, it couM have b een better. W e never w en t all-out fo r war. All the tim e we w ere doing m arvelous things on the battle fronts and on th e hom e fronts, w e also w ere indulging in experim ents, reform s and num erous other dis­

tractions. Also, beginning ab o u t a year ago, w e th o u g h t w e h ad done enough to in­

sure w inning the w ar and w e beg an to relax. W e w ere too cocksure of early victory.

N ow things are n o t going too well. W e are suffering an unexpected— although perhaps a tem porary— setback on the w estern front. O ur m uddled foreign policy is backfiring. O ur dom estic situation is confused. O ur people are puzzled. W e are beginning to find o u t th a t we do n o t know all the answers.

Painful as it is to adm it mistakes and to be disillusioned, tire experience o u ght to teach us a lesson. Profiting from it, le t us find out exactly w here we are, chart a new and tru er course and keep a t it w ith determ ination until we have reached our goal.

LABOR'S ASCENDANCY:

O utstand­

ing am ong the events of 1944 was the rise of union labor to a position of com m anding authority in the shaping of national policy. No m atter how m uch one m ay question the propriety of the m ethods em ployed and no m atter how m uch labor itself later m ay regret its political alliance in retrospect, the fact rem ains th a t the strong voice of union labor will be reflected in legislation, executive orders and other instrum ents of federal authority throughout

1945 and beyond. Practically everything industry does in the near fu tu re will be done in accordance w ith federal regulations which bear the unm istak­

able im print of labor union influence.

W hile the prospect of back-seat driving by labor has its unpleasant aspects, there will be com pensa­

tions. F o r one thing, union labor cannot participate im portantly in governm ent adm inistration w ithout assuming definite responsibilities. U ntil now the labor m ovem ent, u nder N ew D eal coddling, has

( O V E R )

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AS THE EDI T OR V I E W S THE N E W S

been somewhat arrogant ancl not too responsive to public criticism. From now on, the m ore labor dictates national policy, the more labor will be held responsible for the results of these policies.

If labor’s ascendancy forces it to assume responsi­

bility commensurate w ith its authority, industry may be relieved gradually of the consequences of reck­

less and irresponsible labor action. — p. 184

o o o

TECHNICAL PROGRESS: no one can

read the comments of the 175 authorities who have contributed to STEEL’s annual survey of engineer­

ing progress w ithout realizing th a t industry is being enriched with new ideas, m aterials, equipm ent and processes at an unprecedented rate. O perating blast furnaces under pressure, using basic brick in open- hearths, rolling steel under tension, producing steels w ith predeterm ined hardenability qualities, auto­

matic heat-treating by induction, high-speed milling, surface treating by shot peening and scores of other developments and refinements testify to the pres­

ent accelerated pace of technical progress.

However, the abundance of new “know how”

should not cause us to be complacent. In almost every field of engineering activity, the num ber of problems remaining to be solved exceeds th at of problems already solved. A study of the comments of the experts and of STEEL’s “Technical W ork Sheet for 1945” will show that metallurgists, en­

gineers and other technicians can look forw ard to

an exceedingly busy year. — p. 254

O 0 O

WORK SHEET FOR 1945:

A year ago industrialists looked forward to 1944 as a year which m ight witness a gradual tapering off of w ar pro­

duction and the resum ption of civilian goods, m an­

ufactured on a lim ited scale. The events of w ar knocked this expectation into a cocked hat.

Today, one views the prospect more realistically.

W ar m ay require the full effort throughout m ost of the year, or an early tu rn in th e tide of w ar may*

perm it a shift to civilian pursuits earlier than now is expected. B ut w hatever the year brings forth, managem ent knows th a t beyond the first job of pro­

ducing for w ar lies a long series of adjustm ent prob­

lems, which will entail a trem endous volume of work. Perhaps much of this work will fall in 1945.

On this assumption we have prepared a work sheet of things to be done by industry in the current year. I t is an impressive agenda, in th a t it em pha­

sizes the great variety of problems w ith w hich in­

dustrial management may be confronted during

SHARP TURN TO LEFT?

W hile we in America are conscious of a m inority m ovem ent to­

w ard socialism, we do n o t consider it a serious or im m inent threat. H ow ever, in E ng lan d and on the C ontinent the issue has becom e so acute th a t indus­

trialists are deeply concerned ab o u t the fate of private enterprise.

Discussing this situation, V incent D elport, E uro­

pean editor of S T E E L , points o u t th a t in every w arring nation the governm ent has concentrated in its hands m any controls affecting industry and trade. D efenders of unlim ited state control believe the system serves the interests of dem ocracy by erecting barriers against “vested interests” and by insuring a m ore just distribution of goods am ong the less fortunate people.

British labor w ould like to see B ritain nation­

alize coal m ining, steelm aking, public transport, banking an d insurance. The F rench governm ent has taken over the R enault plants and some coal mines. W hether these are tem porary or perm anent m easures, the fact rem ains th a t the tren d abroad is alarm ingly in the direction of public ow nership and

control. — p. 302

0 0 0

PAYS TO BE PROMPT:

T here are num ­ erous details in connection w ith w ar contracts which should b e cleared up as prom ptly as possible, re­

gardless of the status of w ar program s.

F o r instance, it is reported th a t m any contractors fail to realize the im portance of doing everything possible to facilitate the prom pt term ination of contracts. A t an earlier date there was a similar com plaint th a t contractors were slow to act in contract renegotiation m atters.

O f course it is realized th at governm ent repre­

sentatives are not always as prom pt as m ay be desired. Nevertheless prom pt contract term ination is good business on two scores. F irst, if a w ar production crisis exists, quick contract settlem ent perm its the contractor to turn quickly to new w ar orders. Secondly, if opportunities for reconversion are in the offing, it clears the w ay for the resum ption of civilian goods m anufacture.

These advantages should encourage executives to study the procedure and b e p rep ared to act

prom ptly. — p. 188

o o o

E D I T O R - I N - C H I E F

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For Safe ty and D ependability W ith Inland Steel

I N L A N D S T E E L C O M P A N Y

38 S. Dearborn St., C h ica g o 3, Illin o is

Sales Offices: Cincinnati • Detroit • Kansas City • Milwaukee • New York • St. Louis • St. Paul

T h e buying public lias learned to associate steel w ith safety and dependability. People ride in steel tra in s over steel rails, bve a n d w ork in stru c tu re s m ade strong w ith steel, tra v e l th e highw ays in steel autom obiles, cross stream s on bridges o f steel, farm and m an u factu re w ith steel equipm ent, use steel fu rn itu re a n d innum erable household appliances — all w ith th e know ledge t h a t th ese th in g s, m ade o f steel, cost less, are m ore durable — have g reater stre n g th and safety.

Steel affords stre n g th -without excessive volum e an d w eight. I t is stro n g in ten sio n as well as in com pression. I t quickly recovers from strain , and is resilient u n d er shock.

Steel reduces fire h azard to th e m inim um , an d is practically unaffected b y clim atic conditions. Steel norm ally resists corrosion an d can easily be m ore fully p ro te c ted against such action. Steel absorbs n eith er m o istu re no r odors.

In la n d has been a leader in th e developm ent o f steels to m eet changing in d u stria l req u irem en ts — has continuously cooperated w ith in d u stry to m ake available various p h y s­

ical properties and surface tex tu res t h a t give steel its u n ­ surpassed flexibility in p ro d u c t design and fabrication.

T h e In la n d laboratories and th e In la n d staff o f engineers

an d m etallu rg ists are a t yo u r service to help you m eet th e

design problem s o f to d a y and of th e p o st-w ar period. We

will be glad to help you on any design, m aterial selection

or fab ricatin g problem s.

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Call Ryerson When You

Need Steel

E v ery ty p e o f steel from stainless to stru c tu ra ls is im m ediately available from R y erso n stock. J u s t reach for th e phone and call a n y one of th e eleven conveniently-located R yerson service plants. Our operators will con­

n ect you a t once w ith a n experienced

service m an who will see t h a t y o u get th e steel yo u n e ed —w hen y o u n eed it.

JOSEPH T. RYERSON & SON, INC.

Steel Service P la n ts : C hicago, M il­

w aukee, D e tro it, S t. Louis, C in cin n ati, C leveland, P itts b u rg h , P h ilad elp h ia, Buffalo, N ew York, B oston.

178 I T E E L

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d h e u c u t ¿ t i t ¿ 1 u c u t

• P A U L G . H O F F M A N , Choi rman Com m ittee for Econom ic Development

January 1, 1945

179-

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F O R E W O R D

S

OBERING experience is forcing this nation into a belated appreciation of the realities of global war. Every citizen views the prospect of 1945 with feelings quite a t variance w ith those w ith which he looked forw ard to 1944, a short 12 months ago.

From the standpoint of American industry, the contrast is particularly noticeable. A year ago in­

formed m en in industry and in governm ent were convinced th at America’s “arsenal of democracy”

was adequate to m eet any conceivable requirem ents of war. Munitions production had reached a peak in November, 1943, and the authorities believed th at continued output a t high levels soon would fill every supply line to the batdefronts to overflowing and that early in the new year of 1944 this would per­

m it cutbacks in certain w ar production programs.

This prospect stim ulated interest in reconversion and postwar planning. Government officials, indus­

trialists, labor leaders and others all concurred in an unw ritten policy th at we continue w ar produc­

tion at levels high enough to m eet any predictable requirements and th at at the same time we gradu­

ally shift facilities not required for w ar to the re­

sumption of some of the most urgently required ci­

vilian goods.

Sensing the almost universal approval of this policy, the editors of STEEL, in planning for the Jan. 3, 1944, Yearbook of Industry Issue, decided to mould its editorial content to the them e “Industry at W ar Prepares for Peace.” U nder this heading we

presented d ata indicating the im pact of w ar upon steel, the m aterial; steel, the industry; steel, its dis­

tributing facilities and steel, its consuming m arkets.

In short, we tried to portray the conditions u nder I w hich the iron, steel and m etalw orking industries w ere to com plete their w ar work and w ere to move into the problem s of the transition and postw ar periods.

Today, as we cross the threshold into 1945, the '[

national attitu d e has been altered sharply. T he em ­ phasis on w ar production has been intensified; th a t i on reconversion and postw ar plans subordinated.

Now the disposition in alm ost every center of au ­ thority is to p u t first things first an d to be m ore practical and realistic in every phase of our national

program . i

W e believe this dow n-to-earth attitu d e is general through industry. W e also believe th a t P au l G.

i H offman’s classic adm onition, “T ake your h a t off v to the p a st and your coat off to the future,” is a slogan th a t m ost industrialists w ill accept heartily— . particularly in view of w h at has occurred a t hom e { and abroad during the p ast m onth. If w e sense • its cu rren t m ood correctly, industry is fed up w ith dream s, prom ises, wishful thinking and Pollyannish planning. I t desires to produce enough or m ore

1

th an enough m unitions to make sure there will n o t j be unnecessary recurring production crises in th e future. I t w ants to finish the w ar job as soon as possible an d to m ove into other problem s as ra p ­ idly as circum stances will perm it. I t w ants to know

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the dimensions an d the character of the w ork w hich lies ahead.

In line w ith these desires, the editors of STEEL have p rep ared for its 1945 Yearbook of Industry Issue a check list of im portant jobs to be done.

“In d u stry ’s W ork Sheet for 1945”, as presented on pages 179 to 219, inclusive, and on page 254 and following pages, is offered as a general outline of the m ore im portant problem s likely to be encoun­

te red by m ost typical industrial companies in the near future.

L isted am ong the item s of work are the various phases of production for w ar, renegotiation of con­

tracts, term ination of contracts, reconversion— in­

terim a n d full-scale, disposal of w ar plants, disposal of surplus equipm ent an d m aterial, m anpow er a d ­ justm ents, rehiring and rehabilitating w ar veterans, im proving production m ethods, continuing industrial research, prom oting efficiency, reorganizing sales staffs, analyzing m arkets, re-establishing distribu­

tion channels an d im proving labor relations and public relations.

In the case of each item of work, its status as of Jan. 1, 1945 is indicated an d the objectives for the year outlined. T he w ork sheet em phasizes in an im ­ pressive m anner the g reat volum e and diversity of industry’s 1945 job.

Coats off to these tasks now will m ean th a t a year from now hats can be taken off proudly to th e achievem ents of w h at m ay easily prove to be m an­

agem ent’s busiest year. — T he E ditors

January 1, 1945 I

I

MEETING

S P E C I F I C A T I O N S OF I N D U S T R Y ' S W O R K S H E E T MAY M A K E 1 9 4 5 M A N A G E M E N T 'S B U S I E S T Y E A R

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INDUSTRY’ S WORK

WORK TO BE DONE NATURE OF WORK STATUS, JAN. 1, 1945 OBJECTIVES IN 1945

WAR PRODUCTION (a)

Maintaining schedule of general w ar production program

M unitions index 115 (peak was 1.18 in M arch, 1944)

M eet requirem ents as outlined in latest projection of w ar needs, (p. 246)

WAR PRODUCTION (b)

M eeting production crises as they arise in E uropean war

Critical situation' in heavy am m unition, tires, etc.

(p. 187)

L ick present critical situation prom ptly, be p repared to tackle others until V-E day

WAR PRODUCTION (c)

M eeting production crises as they arise in Jap w ar

No serious bottlenecks in sight

Keep plixgging until V-J day

IENEGOTIATION OF :ONTRACTS

Bargaining w ith govern- . m ent on prices

M ajority of cases settled satisfactorily; a few dis­

putes still unsettled

C lear dockets of renegotiation cases to speed w ar production and to be ready for reconversion

ERMINATION OF IONTRACTS

Settling accounts w ith government to free facili­

ties for other work

Of $23 billion in term i­

nated contracts,

$10

bil­

lion have been settled,

$13 billion are pending

Speed term ination procedure (1) to facilitate w ar production; (

2

) to clear for reconversion w hen perm issible.

(p. 188)

NTERIM

RECONVERSION

As w ar orders run out, shifting released facilities to civilian goods

manufacture

W PB plans held in abey­

ance. Civilian goods pro ­ grams frozen a t fourth- quarter levels. (p. 192)

W hen w ar situation perm its, extend interim reconversion to gain experi­

ence for full-scale reconversion

■ later

USPOSITION OF /AR PLANTS

Raze, close, sell, lease or operate plants not needed for war

F ew plants idle as yet;

some listed for sale or lease when w ar work ends

F o r governm ent, define policy; for industry», decide w h at plants fit into postw ar picture, (p. 189)

ISPOSAL OF WAR URPLUSES

Liquidating surpluses with minimum shock to nation­

al economy

Prelim inary work of Clay­

ton office gathers du st as new board prepaxes to take over

Buy surpluses w hen they can be used advantageously, (p. 189)

ULL-SCALE ECONVERSION

Planning for big-shift after V days

Numerous companies have step-by-step plans ready (p. 191)

Revise plans to keep step w ith changing conditions. Be ready if wars end suddenly

-S RECONVERSION — MATERIALS

Adjusting operations to unrestricted materials

Few opportunities have arisen

C om pare m erits of w artim e substi­

tutes w ith m aterials available and p lan accordingly

-S RECONVERSION - ACUITIES (a)

1

Clearing plants of w ar­

time equipm ent

L ittle has been or could

be done P lan for this contingency carefully.

In some plants it is of prim ary im ­ portance

-S RECONVERSION — ACUITIES (b)

E quipping and tooling for peacetime

W ith lim ited exceptions, nothing has been done

■. ' ■ y- •• /

F ile reservation for needed equip­

m ent and accessories

•S RECONVERSION

-

1ANPOWER

Adjusting personnel from wartime to peacetime basis

Problem has not arisen

(p. 193) A nticipate exodus an d influx of

workers. Prepare for orderly shift

EHIRING WAR (ETERANS

A dopting plans to assuré fair deal for returning, servicemen

Probably less than third of employers have ade­

quate-: plans in operation

Perfect existing plans an d extend them to all plants so industry will be ready w hen big rush comes.

(13)

SHEET FOR 1945

WORK TO BE DONE NATURE OF WORK STATUS, JAN. 1, 1945 OBJECTIVES IN 1945

REHABILITATING VETERANS

H elping handicapped m en

• to prepare selves for jobs

G overnm ent and few larg­

er em ployers are tackling problem energetically

E xtend rehabilitation so th a t prop facilities will b e available w hen needed (p. 193)

POSTWAR PLANS

D eterm ining policy for postw ar activities

M ajority of companies have plans— some very elaborate

Refine plans; translate them into realistic term s; keep pace w ith changing outlook, (p. 190)

PRODUCT DESIGN

D esigning . products for postw ar production and sale

M any progressive com­

panies have products ready for production

Co-ordinate design activity w ith m arket opportunities as they unfold

ENGINEERING DEVELOPMENT

Prom oting technical progress

Im petus of w ar has ac­

celerated progress ten­

fold. (See p. 254)

Round o u t uncom pleted developm e work. Be ready to apply w artin

“know how ” to civilian productioi

INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH

Seeking new m aterials, processes, m ethods

Research laboratories are working a t capacity

E xtend and intensify research to limit

/

STANDARDIZATION, SIM PLIFICATION

Industry, national and international

Am bitious program s are in prospect

Co-operate on sound program s help in w ar, later in peacetim e production

%

LABOR RELATIONS

Prom oting understanding betw een em ploye and em ployer

U nsatisfactory, due to one­

sided governm ent policy, (p. 193)

U tilize eyery opportunity to prdm o common interests of employers and employes

MEETING COMPETITION

Effecting income-expense relationship to insure profits

Efforts stym ied b y w ar­

tim e conditions w hich dis­

courage efficiency

P repare carefully for resurgence law of supply and dem and as vil econom ic factor

DEVELOPMENT OF MARKETS

Prom oting postw ar mnirket opportunities

Program s on ice, aw aiting go-ahead signal

G et all possible data on extent ar character of postw ar dem and

O RG AN IZIN G SALES

M arshalling sales person­

nel for effective work

Plans m atured, b u t action delayed b y contingencies of w ar

Keep sales plans semi-fluid, awax ing clarification of future m arket picture

DISTRIBUTION

Re-establishing outlets for m anufactures

Realignm ents on paper, action deferred

Be ready to key distribution set-i to conditions in transition an d postw ar periods

IN DUSTRY-GO V'T RELATIONS

C o-operation w ith govern­

m ent agencies •

G enerally satisfactory Keep pace w ith governm ent rulin as w artim e controls are modified, relaxed, w ithdraw n, (p. 191)

POLITICS

Participating in shapihg of governm ent policies

Industry’s influence is dis­

appointing; labor’s in ascendancy, (p. 184)

T hrough sound counsel, continue efforts to w in confidence of key m en in public office v

PUBLIC RELATIONS

Prom oting understanding an d good will of m an in street .

Industry stands well w ith public because of excel­

len t w ar record

E xpand existing good w ill b y stri ing to attain foregoing objectives

1945 .

(14)

GEO. F. ADDES

RICHARD FRANKENSTEEN LEE PRESSMAN

JAMES B. CAREY R.J.THOMAS

EM ER G EN C E of organized labor as a major political factor was among 1944’s m ost significant manifestations.

Pressure exerted by labor had an im portant bearing on the shaping of national economic policies in 1944, and this pressure will be intensified in 1945. L abor now looms perhaps as the m ost pow erful single influence in de­

termining the kind of treatm ent which is to b e accorded to business and industry in this country over the next few years. T hat the attitude of labor increasingly will influ­

ence the actions and policies of business, a fact th a t m ust

$

By E. C. KREUTZBERG

E d ito r. STE EL

be constantly kept in m ind by business leaders from now

on, is obvious. • .

T he question thus arises: W h at w ill happen in our treatm ent of business and industry as a result of labor influence? T he best answ er appears to b e as follows:

On the basis of w hat labor already has b rought to pass, the nature of the program it now advocates, and the prestige th a t labor enjoys in its dealings w ith the adm in­

istration and w ith Congress, m ost W ashington observers believe th a t governm ent m anagem ent of Am erican eco­

nom ic policies will continue to veer in the general di­

rection of “a little to the left of center”— a t least for some tim e to come.

Best organized and m ost capably m anned of the labor organizations is the Congress of Industrial O rganizations;

it knows exactly w h a t it w ants and how to go about the accom plishm ent of its desires. T he C IO long has h ad the inside track at the W hite H ouse and in im portant adm inistrative circles. I t is given m uch credit bo th by the adm inistration and by mem bers of Congress for the election results of 1944. T h e things th a t the C IO w ants are representative; the difference betw een its program and those of other labor organizations, aside from the fact that the CIO program is the m ost com prehensive, are minor.

Finally, official W ashington is thoroughly aw are of the continuing objective of the CIO, through its Political Action Com m ittee, and through the affiliated National Citizens’ Political Action Com m ittee, to qualify a huge additional num ber of voters in 1948.

This program is trem endously significant from the stand-

(15)

WALTER REUTHER

PHILIP MURRAY

WILLIAM GREEN

Unions

become

most influential factor In determ ining national policies. Leaders have entry to W hite House a n d C a p ito l.

Success of Political A ction Com m ittee indicates o rganization's influence w ill be retained and b ro a d en ed

point of the nation’s future, for the new voters w ould be recruited largely from am ong th e low est income groups.

The two PACs propose to get poll taxes repealed and to rem ove other franchise barriers.

In the spring of 1944 the C IO was able to enroll some

100

congressm en in a consumers’ com m ittee to fight the proposal to place a sales tax in th e 1944 internal revenue law. T h a t w as before the PAC started to m ake h is­

tory, and a t a tim e w hen nobody h ad any idea how the fall elections w ould go. W hen noses are counted in the 79th Congress, th e bloc of votes am enable to CIO influence should be considerably larger.

Of the various organizations concerned w ith govern­

m ent policies and politics in W ashington, the CIO is far and away the m ost active. Philip M urray, Sidney H ill­

m an, Sam uel Levin, R. J. Thom as, James B. Carey, W alter Reuther, Sam uel W olchok, L ee Pressman, George Addes, Em il Rieve, R ichard T. Frankensteen— these are of the better-know n figures in the CIO who have

to the W hite H ouse and w ho are well received by the num erous com m ittees of Congress w hen they appear, as they do w ith great frequency, to push their ideas on leg­

islation.

These officers of the CIO and of CIO unions also are surrounded by handpicked m en w ho know their way around and who are addressed b y their first nam es when they visit C apitol Hill.

T he prestige enjoyed by the CIO is reflected in the caliber of speakers w ho appear a t its conventions. W hen the CIO m et in Chicago in Novem ber, Lieut. Gen. Brehon Somervell told the assem blage th a t “H ollywood has not adjectives stupendous enough to describe” the immense production job th a t has been done. The M ost Rev.

Bishop B ernard J. Shiel, D. D ., Sejnior Auxiliary, arch-

a few entry

Probably more than arttj other elem ent in American society, organized labor has gained entny to th e W h ite House and the Capitol.

Its representatives are assured attentive ears by the administration and by Congress.

Success of th e Political Action Com m ittee in the Novem ber elections will enhance the already powerful position of labor leaders in

W ashington

T j

B h L í

SIDNEY HILLMAf

(16)

diocese of Chicago, called fo r'a “break” for the common man; he urged revision of the Little Steel wage for­

m ula and adoption of the guaranteed annual wage. Vice President Henry A. W allace ad­

vocated a $2500 yearly minimum wage and

“supremacy of human rights over property right.” Mrs. Eleanor Roosevelt compliment­

ed the CIO on getting out the vote and urged continued education of the masses.

Among other guest speakers was Congresswoman- elect Emily T aft Douglas of Illinois who urged the CIO to “keep plugging for the 1946 election.”

Here is a brief list of the more im portant accomplish­

ments of the CIO on the national scene in 1944.

1. It successfully fought off an attem pt to include a general sales tax in the Internal Revenue act of 1944.

2. It successfully fought off a strongly-backed attem pt to enact a national service law.

3. It contributed powerfully to an extension of the Price Stabilization act, and it successfully fought off amendments that would have gone far in w eaken­

ing the established price and ren t control legislation.

4. It exerted the dom inant influence in form ulating labor utilization policies of the W ar M anpow er Commis­

sion.

5. It won substantial pay increases for some 400,000 steelworkers.

6

. It w on out in its fight against relaxing provisions of the C ontract Renegotiation act.

7. I t won from President Roosevelt and from a num ­ ber of congressional leaders the assurance th a t they would support the CIO dem and for a guaranteed annual w age;

it prevailed on the W ar L abor Board to set up a special commission to study all factors involved in the guaranteed annual w age issue.

8

. It instigated the P epper resolution in the Senate setting 65 cents an hour as the floor u n d er wages.

9. It helped to d raft the final w ording of im portant new laws, notably the G. I. Bill of Rights and the Surplus Property D isposal act.

D espite this list of accomplishments, the C IO is far from satisfied. It failed to get its tax program adopted in full, particularly its dem and for still higher taxes on corporate income, and a floor u nder salaries. It takes p a r­

ticularly to h e art its failure to get Congress to pass the original M urray-K ilgore-Trum an bill w hich w ould have taken care of the “hu m an ” side of reconversion. The George bill w hich was passed provides for a 12-man board, representing industry, labor, agriculture and the general public, to advise the D irector of W ar M obilization and Reconversion; the CIO -backed M urray-Kilgore-Trum an

O n d u j f c u f t i G u w u j f t n y

Tfecvtwestdloti fetxd& tn

W H IL E 1945 will likely mark the turn in the recent succession of record steel production years, prospective war demands are far more lively than anticipated in re­

cent months, due to prolongation of the w ar in Europe and revised estimates of overall munition requirements.

Present w ar production of $5,700,000,000 m onthly is ex­

pected to continue at that rate until V-E D ay, according to J. A. Krug, chairman, W ar Production Board. This compares w ith about $5,500,000,000 a year ago and w ith around $5,282,000,000 last July, the lowest point in 1944.

Overall w ar expenditures are running at tire rate of

$8

billion monthly, or $96 billion annually.

Incidentally, the government is now financing about 40 per cent of expenditures through taxation. Earlier in the emergency the percentage was somewhat lower, and it is estimated th at when the final average can be figured it will be found th at about

3

d per cent of the cost of running

the w ar was financed through current revenues. The p u b ­ lic debt of around $213 billion will likely be w ell more than $300 billion w hen th e w ar is over, w ith interest charges alone am ounting to ab o u t

$6

billion.

C urrent surge in m ilitary dem ands should go far to­

w ard sustaining production until V-E D ay, and instead of a curtailm ent in w ar w ork of 40 to 50 per cent on th a t day, as indicated last fall, W ashington is predicting a decline of no m ore th a n 15 to 25 p er cent, w ith V-E D ay indefi­

nitely in the future.

The overall w ar production job has been excellent, mili­

tary officials assert. There have been no actual short-

186 / T E E L

(17)

By B. K. PRICE Associate

E d ito r, S TE EL

ages abroad of shells and guns and other such equipm ent, b u t reserves have been reduced and m ust b u ilt u p in order to m aintain the offensive at highest tem po.

R enew ed pressure on steel for the heavy shell program is indicated by plans to step up o u tp u t from around $45 million m onthly to $80 million by M arch and $100 mil­

lion later in the year. L ast spring production w as under

$80 million m onthly. Increase in requirem ents for m or­

tars and m ortar am m unition is reflected in plans for ex­

penditure of $500 million for new p lan t facilities.

Renew ed dem and for m ilitary goods will serve to alter the outlook in the steel m arket over com ing weeks. Shells and guns will exert greater pressure on steel bars, w ith

Highly-polish'ed cartridge cases receive final inspection at the W ashington Navy Yard. Official U. S. N avy photo

from N E A

bill would have vested this board w ith an im portant p lan ­ ning function, 'and w ith direct access to b o th the Presi­

d en t and the Congress. T he CIO still is studying all the possibilities of the bill th a t was passed and is expected a t an early date to recom m end new legislation. T he CIO also proposes to renew its fight, in 1945, for quite a few other objectives. A p artial list is as follows:

1. F u rth er extension of price controls and re n t con­

trols.

2. Follow ing com pletion of w ar work, paym ent of the same am ount of take-hom e p ay for 40 hours (provided 40 hours is set as the length of the standard work-week) as has been received throughout th e w ar for a longer work w eek; unification and federalization of unem ploym ent com pensation; protection of w age rates; adoption of the principle of the guaranteed annual w age; governm ent benefits to com pensate w ar workers for expenses in­

curred in getting settled in peacetim e jobs.

3. Im m ediate revision of the L ittle Steel form ula to perm it w age increases geared to the actual increase in the cost of living; a shakeup and expansion of the B ureau of L abor Statistics to fill an alleged need for reliable labor research and reliable cost-of-living statistics.

4. Repeal of the Sm ith-Connally Law , on the ground this law has “served to encourage strikes and retard p ro ­ duction;” repeal of the H atch act w hich denies federal employes th e rig h t to engage in political activities.

5. In telligent collaboration w ith other nations, and labor unions of other nations, in the interest of good in­

ternational relations, and to prom ote em ploym ent in the

U nited States on th e basis of expanded foreign trade.

6

. Reconstitution of the President’s F air Em ploym ent Practices Com m ittee as a perm anent statutory agency financed by direct congressional appropriation; com plete elim ination of racial bias and discrimination.

7. E n actm en t of the W agner-M urray-D ingell social se­

curity bill calling for governm ent m edical and hospitaliza­

tion service, m aternity benefits, p erm an en t disability p ay­

ments, federal grants for m ore liberal state and local assist­

ance, and other expansions beyond the present social se­

curity system.

8

. F ed eral participation in housing program s, to pro­

vide decen t low-cost housing for workers; elim ination of slums.

9. E n actm en t of a “reconversion period” tax m easure w ith these provisions: C ontinuation of p resent tax rates on corporations having n e t incomes of $

100,000

or more and on persons having incomes above $5000; favorable tax treatm en t for corporations w ith n e t incomes of less than $

100,000

to “assist sm all business”; reduction of the tax load on persons in the lower income groups; increase in exemptions to $2000 p er m arried couple an d $500 for each d ep en d en t child; repeal of the present 3 per cent norm al tax, w hich “victim izes” the low er income groups;

extension of the carry-back and carry-forw ard principle to individual taxpayers; taxation of present tax-exem pt securities; closing of estate and gift tax loopholes; com­

plete avoidance of any form of sales tax w hich would be a direct raid on the purchasing power.

(

P lease turn to P a g e

406)

(18)

hot top ingot capacity forced to the limit. Rockets will cut sharply into cold draw n bars, especially in the larger rounds 214 to more than five inches. Bars will like­

wise be affected by the heavy truck programs, ships, etc.

Tubular schedules will further reflect the im pact of the shell program, and shape schedules should rem ain fairly tight as the indirect result of shell work and ship ton­

nage backlog. Indications, in fact, point to continued stringent limitations on building construction.

Pressure for sheets is likely to continue, and despite fur­

ther shifting of strip mills to sheets no early easing of delivery promises appears likely, due in p art to short­

age of manpower.

Radar and other communications equipm ent will make substantial demands on wire, silicon sheets and a range of specialties. H ot alloy steels, lagging for some months, are expected to be more active before the current quarter is over. Tin plate will expand seasonally, reaching a peak in the second quarter; as will also rails, subject mainly to limitations of the shell program.

On the other hand, the decline in plate specifications should become more pronounced. M ost sheared mills have sufficient tonnage on books to assure good rollings in first quarter, and their position m ay be further strength­

ened by the increasing diversion of plate tonnage in the strip mills. However, M aritime Commission specifica­

tions, which have been outstanding since the emergency began, are scheduled to decline sharply and there is little in sight to offset it in substantial degree.

In analyzing why certain w ar programs are listed as critical, Washington asserts th at roughly 40 per cent of the cause is due actually to the step-up in requirem ents, 26 per cent to design change,

22

per cent to labor and

12

per cent to facilities. Also there is greatly increased need for repair parts.

Increases in some of these programs are projected well through 1945. But just w hat the situation will be, say,

Disposal of surplus property was started last year on a limited scale. Pictured here is an auction sale of surplus

construction implements. N E A photo

three months from now is difficult to foretell.

M ilitary leaders say the w ar w ith Germ any m ay run into next summer, and, conceivably, beyond that. W ith the time elem ent entering into it so m uch, some trade inter­

ests believe th at present estim ates as to lessening in w ar work m ight run heavier than now indicated.

They point out, too, th at w ith die fall of G ermany, this country will then be fighting only one w ar instead of two, and suggest th a t even though the curtailm ents on V-fi Day are no greater than now predicted, it m ight be only a short time thereafter before further sw eeping cuts in the program will b e m ade. Lieut. Gen. Brehon B. Som­

ervell, however, recendy spiked this latter idea by em pha­

sizing the greater am ount of m ateriel required in conduct­

ing w ar against Japan and predicted it would cost the United States $71 billion a year to fight Japan after Ger­

many is defeated. C urrendy the global w ar is costing around $96 billion annually.

SETTLEM EN T of term ination contracts, w hich b e ­ came big business in 1944, will assum e vasdy greater proportions this year and particularly a t the end of the war.

Total term inations by the Army, Navy, M aritim e Com ­ mission and the Treasury D ep artm en t from P earl H ar­

bor through Oct. 31 cam e to some $23 billion. This total included some

$6

billion w orth of cost-plus-a-fixed- fee contracts; of these contracts only

$1

billion have been settied and the rem aining

$5

billion still are p en d ­

/ T E E L

(19)

ing. The total included some $17 billion w orth of fixed- price contracts, of w hich $9 billion have been settled and

$8

billion still are pending. M any of these u n ­ settled contracts have been pending since 1943.

This is an unfortunate situation, procurem ent officials say. F a st settlem ent is necessary for tw o reasons: first, to assist w ar production; second, the postw ar reconversion period always looms ahead. As procurem ent officers see it, the contractor who does n o t co-operate in m aking it possible to reach p ro m p t settlem ents is storing up trouble for d ie reconversion period ahead, for the country, and for himself.

D espite all th a t has been said on die subject, procure­

m ent officers p oint out, n o t all prim e contractors as yet have gotten them selves organized for term ination settlem ents.

N ot only are prim e contractors slow ab o u t seeking set- dem ents on their own account, b u t m any of diem are lax as to their responsibility in preparing dieir subcon­

tractors for term ination.

T here is no valid reason, so far as known, for the cur­

re n t w idespread delay on the p a rt of term inated con­

tractors in seeking settiem ents, for thousands of m en have been trained in term ination procedure and are to be found in the district offices of die w ar agencies all over th e country.-

Furtherm ore, the process of settling term inated con­

tracts has been sm oothed out and im proved. All re p ­ resentatives of the w ar agencies are arm ed w ith copies of the new A rmy-Navy Joint T erm ination Regulation known as “JT R .” This 286-page volum e replaces the form er PR-15 of the W ar D epartm ent an d the term ina­

tion directives of th e Navy. I t contains all forms to be used in m aking out settlem ent proposals, a joint account­

ing m anual, a uniform costing m anual and other instruc­

tions. Com piled on th e basis of a large am ount of ac­

tual experience, it is intended to supply betw een two covers all inform ation needed in effecting settlem ents.

To insure fast, fair and final settlem ents and to p ro ­ tect contractors against arbitrary action b y individual of­

ficers, the “JT R ” has a provision for setting up “term ina­

tion team s.” These in m ost cases will include the of­

ficer who originally contracted for th e work, also a nu m ­ ber of experts such as a trained negotiator, law yer, an accountant, a p roperty disposal officer and others spe­

cially trained in the various phases of contract term ina­

tion and settlem ent work.

PLANS for disposal of th e huge governm ent w ar sur­

plus ($116 billion or so), have got off to an inauspicious start. Signed by th e P resident O ct. 3 w ith “consider­

able reluctance” and described by the retiring Surplus W ar P roperty A dm inistrator W illiam L. Clayton as “unwork-

A num ber of small plants began partial reconversion to peacetime goods w hen their war contracts were termin­

ated. lie fe a worker in the M onterey Park Products Co., M onterey, Calif., casts juice pressers. Company also makes

mounts for machine guns. N E A photo

able,” the Surplus P roperty D isposal A ct of 1944 appears to have too m any conflicting objectives and too poor an adm inistrative setup.

W hile th e existing W ar Surplus Property A dm inistra­

tion has continued to function un til a new Surplus P rop­

erty Board of three has been officially appointed, the ef­

fect of the law has been to slow dow n the disposal proc­

ess. M eanw hile it is pointed out it will require a t least three m onths for th e new board to learn its job. F u r­

th er delay is regarded as alm ost inevitable.

U ndoubtedly tire law will come in for considerable clari­

fication. Some observers are convinced th a t it should be rew ritten. Actually m uch of the $116 billion in surplus will n o t becom e surplus until after Japan is defeated and, hence, liquidation of a considerable portion will not become desirable for some time. H ow ever, collapse of Germ any should see the offering of substantial surplus, w ith relatively lim ited b u t still sizable am ounts of ex­

cess goods and property being offered meanwhile.

According to present estim ates, the governm ent will own industrial plants costing, w ith their equipm ent, more than $15.5 billion and having total floor area of approxi­

m ately 10,000 acres, w hen the w ar ends. Besides these facilities, there will be various com binations of govern­

m ent and privately ow ned plants and equipm ent.

A m ajor problem along w ith the effective disposal of equipm ent, is rem oval of equipm ent as prom ptly as pos­

sible so as not to retard reconversion of plants. To ex­

pedite rem oval and necessary storage of m uch of this equipm ent governm ent agencies, it is estim ated, w ill need approxim ately

100

,

000,000

square fe e t of storage space.

O f the various classes of federally-financed plants and facilities likely to becom e surplus after th e w ar the largest covers airplane, engines, parts and accessories m anufac-

January 1, 1945 189

(20)

interestingly, there w ere 900,000 machines in the entire U nited States.

Normal export trade has been disrupted by the necessities of war. An accumulated demand awaits the coming of

peace. N E A photo

turing facilities w ith a total value of $3,012,000,000.

O thers include ship construction and repair facilities, $2,- 181,000,000; explosives and amm unition loading, $2,492,- 000,000; guns and am m unition $1,867,000,000; iron and steel facilities, $1,30S,000,000; and nonferrous metals, basic and semifinished $1,114,000,000.

Government-financed iron and steelmaking and affili­

ated facilities are located in 25 states, w ith the largest investm ent in any one state, $311,000,000, in Pennsyl­

vania, according to governm ent advices. Approximately

$216,000,000 were invested in U tah, and $137,000,000 in Illinois. F o r nonferrous m etal facilities, $134,000,000 were invested in M ichigan and a similar am ount in N evada;

and $111,000,000, in W ashington.

Surplus steel on hand V-E D ay may am ount to 15,000,-

000

or

20

,

000,000

tons in the opinion of some trade ob­

servers. W ith revision in governm ent estim ates as to cut­

backs and cancellations w hen G erm any is defeated and the measures taken to reduce inventories late last summer and early fall, when a E uropean armistice was believed n o t far off, surplus stocks should b e substantially lighter than estimated five or six m onths ago.

Indicating the huge disposal problem involved in con­

nection w ith heavy equipm ent alone, the governm ent owned as of Oct. 1 betw een 500,000 and 600,000 machine tools, a large proportion of w hich will eventually be de­

clared surplus. At the beginning of the w ar in Europe,

A LTH O U G H industry’s w ar production job at this junc­

ture appears a long way from completion, planning for the postw ar period is not being overlooked. T he future eco­

nomic stability of the nation will depend in large measure on how sound a postw ar planning job is done now before the w ar ends. T h at the economic transition from w ar to peace will not be easy is recognized by all com petent ob­

servers. Jobs for 60 million workers will have to be pro­

vided as com pared w ith 46 million in 1940, and this means industrial production will have to be expanded far!

and beyond anything achieved in any previous peacetime : year.

In the iron and steel industiy resum ption of normal j peacetim e activity will be greatly influenced by underly­

ing economic trends. Both highly inflationary and defla­

tionary forces will have to be contended with. On the one side, it is pointed out, there will be vast shortages of goods and services which will have been accum ulating since prior to the war; there will be a backlog of

$100

bil­

lion to $125 billion in buyers’ hands, according to present estimates, and potentially a large foreign dem and.

On the other side, there will be the tapering of huge governm ent expenditures, even though they may still con­

tinue high; considerable oversupply of various basic raw materials; adding of demobilized w ar veterans to the labor force and general uncertainty about future employment, w hich may deter m any people from draw ing on their sav­

ings. U pw ard trend in labor costs, w hich if allowed to continue, m ight serve as a deterren t to investm ent; also unstable tax policies. Likewise, failure to release many wartime controls on business as prom ptly as possible would also prove to be a depressing factor.

If the emphasis is to be on high wages and short hours, instead of production, a policy w hich m any believe ex­

tended the prew ar depression for several years (w ith only the war, in fact, to definitely break it up ) troublesome days m ay lie ahead, if n o t after V-E Day, certainly after

Japan is defeated, it is pointed out.

Industrialists stress the im portance of first making it possible for business and industry to have the confidence to go ahead and expand their enterprises and establish new ones and thus provide for the increase in jobs which is so desirable after the w ar is over. The pegging of wages and salaries a t high levels, w ithout the production to back it up, on the assumption th a t sufficient buying pow er will thus b e engendered to do the trick is regarded as fallacious.

To the extent th a t taxes can be set up on a firm and equitable basis and not be subjected to constant change in laws and interpretation to the point w here m anage­

m ent, as in recent years, finds it impossible to plan ahead, and to the extent th a t capital, as well as labor, cfffTbe as­

sured of reasonable compensation, can jobs, agd in turn prosperity, be soundly expanded, it is contended.

Hopeful th a t sound enterprise-stim ulating policies will be in the ascendancy by the time the country does get

/ T E E L

Cytaty

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