Informacje i komentarze zawarte w niniejszym raporcie nie stanowi¹ rekomendacji w rozumieniu Rozporz¹dzenia Rady Ministrów z dnia 19 padziernika 2005 roku w sprawie informacji stanowi¹cych rekomendacje dotycz¹ce instrumentów finansowych, ich emitentów lub wystawców. DM nie ponosi odpowiedzialnoci za decyzje inwestycyjne podjête na podstawie informacji zawartych w niniejszym opracowaniu.
PKO Dom Maklerski ul. Pu³awska 15 02-515 Warszawa tel. (0-22) 521-80-00 Analityk:
Przemys³aw Smoliñski tel. (0-22) 521-79-10 e-mail:
przemyslaw.smolinski2@pkobp.pl
Komentarz: WIG20, S&P 500
Poniedzia³ek 16.04.2012
WIG20 (Polska)
Po dwóch sesjach korekcyjnych wzrostów, w pi¹tek na wykresie WIG20 ponownie pojawi³a siê czarna wieca.
Choæ powrót spadków jest wysoce prawdopodobny, to jednak z definitywnym og³oszeniem koñca korekty wstrzyma³bym siê przynajmniej do czasu prze³amania poziomu 2236 punktów.
S&P 500 (USA)
Pi¹tkowa sesja przynios³a silny spadek S&P 500. Najbli¿sze wsparcie tworzy poziom 1364 punktów. Jego prze³amanie potwierdzi³oby powrót spadków.
27 2 2012
9 16 23 30
February
6 13 20 27 5
March
12 19 26 2
April 10 16
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400
ebruary MarchApril May June July AugustSeptemberOctober NovemberDecember 2011February March AprilMay June July AugustSeptemberOctober NovemberDecember2012 February March April
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000
ebruaryMarchApril May June July AugustSeptemberOctober NovemberDecember 2011FebruaryMarch April May June July AugustSeptemberOctober NovemberDecember2012FebruaryMarchApril
-10 -5 0 5 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450
27 3 2012
9 17 23 30
February
6 13 21 27 5
March
12 19 26 2
April
9 16
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
1240 1250 1260 1270 1280 1290 1300 1310 1320 1330 1340 1350 1360 1370 1380 1390 1400 1410 1420 1430
Wykres dnia: Wasko
Po niewielkim, korekcyjnym odbiciu, w pi¹tek na wykresie Wasko pojawi³a siê d³uga czarna wieca, sugeruj¹ca powrót spadków. Dodatkowym potwierdzeniem, bêdzie prze³amanie ostatniego lokalnego minimum na poziomie 2,54 z³. W takim przypadku, minimalny zasiêg spadków nale¿y okreliæ na 2,45 z³, ale prawdopodobnie kurs siêgnie ni¿ej.
Wasko (Polska)
17 24 31 7 14
November 21 28 5 12
December 19 27 2 9
2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2
April 10 16 23 3
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1.90
1.95
2.00
2.05
2.10
2.15
2.20
2.25
2.30
2.35
2.40
2.45
2.50
2.55
2.60
2.65
2.70
2.75
2.80
2.85
2.90
2.95
3.00
3.05
3.10
3.15
16 kwiecieñ 2012 3
bruary MarchApril May June July August SeptemberOctober NovemberDecember 2011February MarchApril May June July AugustSeptemberOctober NovemberDecember2012 February MarchApril
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 15
14000 15000 16000 17000 18000 19000 20000 21000 22000 23000 24000 25000
27 2
2012
9 16 23 30
February
6 13 20 27
March
5 12 19 26 2
April
10 16
-50 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
15700 15800 15900 16000 16100 16200 16300 16400 16500 16600 16700 16800 16900 17000 17100 17200 17300 17400 17500 17600 17700 17800 17900 18000 18100 18200 18300 18400 18500 18600 18700 18800 18900 19000 19100 19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900 20000
March April May June July AugustSeptemberOctober NovemberDecember 2011 FebruaryMarchApril May June July AugustSeptemberOctober November December2012 February MarchApril
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3500 3600
2 2012
9 16 23 30 6
February
13 20 27 5
March
12 19 26 2
April 10 16
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400
FebruaryMarchApril MayJune July AugustSeptemberOctober NovemberDecember 2011 FebruaryMarchApril May June July AugustSeptemberOctober NovemberDecember2012 February MarchApril
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 20
1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 3100
26 3
2012
9 16 23 30 6
February
13 20 27 5
March
12 19 26 2
April
9 16
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550
(Wêgry)
RTX (Rosja)
CECE (Europa rodkowo-
wschodnia)
March April May June July AugustSeptemberOctober November December2011 FebruaryMarchApril May June July AugustSeptemberOctober NovemberDecember2012 February March April
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 15
5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500
2 2012
9 16 23 30
February
6 13 20 27 5
March
12 19 26 2
April 10 16
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 6500 6600 6700 6800 6900 7000 7100 7200 7300
February MarchApril MayJune July AugustSeptemberOctober NovemberDecember2011FebruaryMarchApril May June July AugustSeptemberOctober NovemberDecember2012February MarchApril
-10 -5 0 5 10 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 15
8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500
4 2012
10 16 23 30 6
February
13 20 27 5
March
12 19 26 2
April
9 16
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
8200 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900 9000 9100 9200 9300 9400 9500 9600 9700 9800 9900 10000 10100 10200 10300 10400
2010FebruaryMarchApril May JuneJuly AugustSeptemberOctoberNovember December 2011FebruaryMarch AprilMay June July AugustSeptemberOctoberNovember December2012 February MarchApril
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 15
2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400
19 26 4
2012
9 16 30
February
6 13 20 27 5
March
12 19 26 5
April
9 16
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500
DAX (Niemcy)
SHCOMP
(Chiny)
NIKKEI 225
(Japonia)
16 kwiecieñ 2012 5
ebruary MarchApril MayJune July August SeptemberOctober NovemberDecember2011February March AprilMay June July AugustSeptemberOctober November December2012February March April
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 15
6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000
28 3 2012
9 16 23 30
February
6 13 20 27 5
March
12 19 26 2
April 10 16
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
7300 7400 7500 7600 7700 7800 7900 8000 8100 8200 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700
March April May June July AugustSeptemberOctober NovemberDecember 2011 February MarchApril May June July AugustSeptemberOctober NovemberDecember2012February MarchApril
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 20
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130
3 2012
9 16 23 30 6
February
13 20 27 5
March
12 19 26 2
April
9 16
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
110 115 120 125 130
1 March815 22 29 5
April12 19 26 3 May10 17 24 31
June714 21 28 5 July12 19 26 29
August16 23 30 6 September13 20 27 4
October11 18 25 18 November15 22 29 6
December13 20 27 3 201110 17 24 31 7
February14 21 28 7 March14 21 28 4
April11 18 25 2 May916 23 30 6
June13 20 27 4 July11 18 25 18
August15 22 29 512 September19 26 310
October17 24 31 7 November14 21 28 5
December12 19 26 2 2012916 23 30 6
February13 20 27 5 March12 19 26 2 10
April16 23 -10.0-9.5-9.0-8.5-8.0-7.5-7.0-6.5-6.0-5.5-5.0-4.5-4.0-3.5-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.59.0 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
5.20 5.25 5.30 5.35 5.40 5.45 5.50 5.55 5.60 5.65 5.70 5.75 5.80 5.85 5.90 5.95 6.00 6.05 6.10 6.15 6.20 6.25 6.30 6.35 6.40 6.45 6.50
2 2012
9 16 23 30
February
6 13 20 27
March
5 12 19 26 2
April
10 16
-505 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 7580 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
5.30 5.35 5.40 5.45 5.50 5.55 5.60 5.65 5.70 5.75 5.80 5.85 5.90 5.95 6.00 6.05
(LME)
Obligacje 10-letnie (Polska)
Ropa Brent
(Wielka Brytania)
MarchApril May June July AugustSeptemberOctober NovemberDecember 2011 FebruaryMarch April May June July AugustSeptemberOctober November December2012 February MarchApril
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
2.60 2.65 2.70 2.75 2.80 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00 3.05 3.10 3.15 3.20 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.40 3.45 3.50 3.55 3.60
2 2012
9 16 23 30 6
February
13 20 27 5
March
12 19 26 2
April
9 16
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
3.05 3.10 3.15 3.20 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.40 3.45 3.50 3.55
March April May June July AugustSeptemberOctober November December 2011February March April May June July AugustSeptemberOctober NovemberDecember 2012February MarchApril
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
3.80 3.85 3.90 3.95 4.00 4.05 4.10 4.15 4.20 4.25 4.30 4.35 4.40 4.45 4.50 4.55 4.60 4.65
2 2012
9 16 23 30 6
February
13 20 27 5
March
12 19 26 2
April
9 16
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
4.10 4.15 4.20 4.25 4.30 4.35 4.40 4.45 4.50 4.55
MarchApril May June July AugustSeptemberOctober NovemberDecember 2011 FebruaryMarch April May June July AugustSeptemberOctober November December2012 February MarchApril