Informacje i komentarze zawarte w niniejszym raporcie nie stanowi¹ rekomendacji w rozumieniu Rozporz¹dzenia Rady Ministrów z dnia 19 padziernika 2005 roku w sprawie informacji stanowi¹cych rekomendacje dotycz¹ce instrumentów finansowych, ich emitentów lub wystawców. DM nie ponosi odpowiedzialnoci za decyzje inwestycyjne podjête na podstawie informacji zawartych w niniejszym opracowaniu.
PKO Dom Maklerski ul. Pu³awska 15 02-515 Warszawa tel. (0-22) 521-80-00 Analityk:
Przemys³aw Smoliñski tel. (0-22) 521-79-10 e-mail:
przemyslaw.smolinski2@pkobp.pl
Analiza Techniczna
Komentarz: WIG20, S&P 500
Poniedzia³ek 03.03.2014
WIG20 (Polska)
Choæ na wykresie WIG20 pojawi³a siê w pi¹tek d³uga bia³a wieca, to jednak indeks ca³y czas pozostaje w konsolidacji, nie generuj¹c sygna³ów inwestycyjnych.
S&P 500 (USA)
S&P 500 naruszy³ w pi¹tek ostatnie, lokalne maksimum, ale trudno mówiæ o sygnale kupna. Do czasu jego zdecydowanego prze³amania, nieco wiêcej przemawia za rozpoczêciem korekcyjnych spadków.
12 18 25 2
December
9 16 23 30
2014
7 13 20 27 3
February
10 17 24 3
March -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
2260 2270 2280 2290 2300 2310 2320 2330 2340 2350 2360 2370 2380 2390 2400 2410 2420 2430 2440 2450 2460 2470 2480 2490 2500 2510 2520 2530 2540 2550 2560 2570 2580 2590 2600 2610 2620 2630 2640 2650
12 19 27 2 9 2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 10
April 16 23 30
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 512
November 19 26 310
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 412
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 7
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 10
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600 2650
19 27 3 9 2012 17 23 30 6
February 13 21 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 9
April 16 23 30 7
May 14 21 29 4
June 11 18 25 2 9
July 16 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 4 10
September 17 24 1 8
October 15 22 3112
November 19 26 3 10
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 22 28 411
February 19 25 4
March 11 18 25 18
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 28 3
June 10 17 24 1 8
July 15 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 3 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 30 6
2014 13 21 27 310
February 18 24 3
March 10
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900
11 18 25 2
December
9 16 23 30
2014
6 13 21 27 3
February
10 18 24 3
March -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
1730 1735 1740 1745 1750 1755 1760 1765 1770 1775 1780 1785 1790 1795 1800 1805 1810 1815 1820 1825 1830 1835 1840 1845 1850 1855 1860 1865 1870 1875
Wykres dnia: Fota
Fota silnie wczoraj zwy¿kowa³a, prze³amuj¹c d³ug¹ bia³¹ wiec¹ ostatnie lokalne maksimum. Tym samym, mo¿na zak³adaæ kontynuacjê wzrostów, rozpoczêtych w pierwszej po³owie lutego. Minimalny zasiêg ruchu nale¿y szacowaæ na 1,66 z³, ale prawdopodobnie kurs siêgnie 1,89 z³ lub 2,15 z³, a w optymistycznym scenariuszu wydarzeñ nawet okolic 2,50 z³ i wy¿ej.
Fota (Polska)
15 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 2 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 4 12
November 18 25 2 9
December 16 23 7
2014 13 20 27 3 10
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 2 -50
0
50
100
150
0 .5
1 .0
1 .5
2 .0
2 .5
3 .0
3 .5
4 .0
3 marzec 2014 3
5 ecember
12 19 27 2 2012
916 23 30 6 February 13 20 27 5
March 1226 2 10
April 16 23 2
May 14 21 29 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 21 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 24512
November 19 26 310
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 21 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 2129
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 6
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10
-10 -5 0 5 10 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
16000 16500 17000 17500 18000 18500 19000 19500 20000
11 18 25 2
December
9 16 23
2014
6 13 20 27 3
February
10 17 24 3
March -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
17100 17200 17300 17400 17500 17600 17700 17800 17900 18000 18100 18200 18300 18400 18500 18600 18700 18800 18900 19000 19100 19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900
2 2012
91623306 February 1320275
March 1219262
April 10162330
May 71421284
June 1118252
July 91623306
August 132027310
September 17241
October 81522295
November 121926310
December 17277
2013 1421284
February 1118254
March 111825 2
April 81522296
May 1320273
June 1017241
July 81522295
August 12192629
September 1623307
October 1421284
November 11182529
December 16236
2014 1320273
February 1017243
March 10 -19-18-17-16-15-14-13-12-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1101112131415161718190123456789 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600
1 18 25 2
December
9 16 23 30
2014
6 13 20 27 3
February
10 17 24 3
March -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Oscylator krotkoterminowy
2150 2160 2170 2180 2190 2200 2210 2220 2230 2240 2250 2260 2270 2280 2290 2300 2310 2320 2330 2340 2350 2360 2370 2380 2390 2400 2410 2420 2430 2440 2450 2460 2470 2480 2490 2500
19 26 3 9 2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 19 26 29
April 16 23 2
May 14 21 28 4
June 1325 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 3 10
September 17 24 1 8
October 15 22 29 6 12
November 19 26 310
December 17 24 8 14
2013 21 28 4 11
February 18 25 4 11
March 18 25 18
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 2 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 5 11
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 30 13
2014 20 27 310
February 17 24 310
March 1
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 20
1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600
18 25 2
December
9 16 23 30 6
2014
13 20 27 3
February
10 17 24 3
March -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
BUX (Wêgry)
RTX (Rosja)
CECE (Europa rodkowo-
wschodnia)
7 2 2012
9 16 23 30 6 February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 10
April 16 23 30 7
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 1 8
October 15 22 29 512
November 19 26 3 10
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 4 11
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 2 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 6
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10
-10 -5 0 5 10 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 15
6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000
11 18 25 2
December
9 16 23 30
2014
6 13 20 27 3
February
10 17 24 3
March -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Oscylator krotkoterminowy
8950 9000 9050 9100 9150 9200 9250 9300 9350 9400 9450 9500 9550 9600 9650 9700 9750 9800 9850
5 December
12 19 26 4 2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2
April 916 23 1
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 917 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 18 24 19
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 25 7
2013 15 21 28 412
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 815 22 30
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 816 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 17 24 30 7
October 15 21 28 5 11
November 18 25 29
December 16 24 30
2014 14 20 27 310
February 17 24 310
March
1
-15
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 13500 14000 14500 15000 15500 16000 16500 17000
11 18 25 2
December
9 16 24 30
2014
14 20 27 3
February
10 17 24 3
March -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
13900 14000 14100 14200 14300 14400 14500 14600 14700 14800 14900 15000 15100 15200 15300 15400 15500 15600 15700 15800 15900 16000 16100 16200 16300 16400 16500
4 21 28 5 December
12 19 26 4 2012 16 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 5
April 16 23 2
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 9 16 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 815
October 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31
2013 14 21 28 418
February 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 15 22 2
May 13 20 27 3
June 1324 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 1630 14
October 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 30 6
2014 13 20 27 10 17
February 24 310
March 1
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500
11 18 25 2
December
9 16 23 30
2014
6 13 20 27 10
February
17 24 3
March -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 2160 2170 2180 2190 2200 2210 2220 2230 2240 2250 2260 2270 2280
DAX (Niemcy)
SHCOMP
(Chiny)
NIKKEI 225
(Japonia)
3 marzec 2014 5
289 2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 10
April 16 23 30
May 8 14 21 28 6
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 28 3 10
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5 12
November 19 26 310
December 17 247
2013 14 21 28 4 11
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 7
May 13 20 28 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 27 2 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 236
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10
-12 -11 -10 10 11 12 13 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
6500 6600 6700 6800 6900 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400 7500 7600 7700 7800 7900 8000 8100 8200 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900
18 25 2
December
9 16 23 30
2014
6 13 20 27 3
February
10 17 24 3
March -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Oscylator krotkoterminowy
6900 6950 7000 7050 7100 7150 7200 7250 7300 7350 7400 7450 7500
16 23 30 6 February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 9
April 16 23 30
May 714 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 815 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 8 15 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 2 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 30 6
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130
18 25 2
December
9 16 23 30
2014
6 13 20 27 3
February
10 17 24 3
March -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
105.0 105.5 106.0 106.5 107.0 107.5 108.0 108.5 109.0 109.5 110.0 110.5 111.0 111.5 112.0 112.5 113.0 113.5
012 916 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 10
April 16 23 30
May 714 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 512
November 19 26 3 10
December 17 277
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 4 11
November 18 25 2 9
December 16 23 30 6
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2
18 25 2
December
9 16 23 30
2014
6 13 20 27 3
February
10 17 24 3
March -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
3.90 3.95 4.00 4.05 4.10 4.15 4.20 4.25 4.30 4.35 4.40 4.45 4.50 4.55 4.60 4.65 4.70 4.75 4.80
Mied
(LME)
Obligacje 10-letnie (Polska)
Ropa Brent
(Wielka Brytania)
6 23 30 6 February
13 20 27 5 March
12 19 26 29 April 16 23 30 7
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 815 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 8 15 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 4 11
November 18 25 2 9
December 16 23 30 6
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 12
2.95 3.00 3.05 3.10 3.15 3.20 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.40 3.45 3.50 3.55 3.60 3.65
18 25 2
December
9 16 23 30
2014
6 13 20 27 3
February
10 17 24 3
March -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
2.975 2.980 2.985 2.990 2.995 3.000 3.005 3.010 3.015 3.020 3.025 3.030 3.035 3.040 3.045 3.050 3.055 3.060 3.065 3.070 3.075 3.080 3.085 3.090 3.095 3.100 3.105 3.110 3.115 3.120 3.125 3.130 3.135 3.140 3.145 3.150 3.155 3.160 3.165 3.170 3.175
6 2 9 2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2
April 916 23 30
May 7 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 3 10
September 17 24 1 8
October 15 22 29 512
November 19 26 3 10
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 9 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 8 15 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 4 11
November 18 25 2 9
December 16 23 30 6
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10
-6.5 -6.0 -5.5 -5.0 -4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
4.00 4.05 4.10 4.15 4.20 4.25 4.30 4.35 4.40 4.45 4.50 4.55
18 25 2
December
9 16 23 30
2014
6 13 20 27 3
February
10 17 24 3
March -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
4.110 4.115 4.120 4.125 4.130 4.135 4.140 4.145 4.150 4.155 4.160 4.165 4.170 4.175 4.180 4.185 4.190 4.195 4.200 4.205 4.210 4.215 4.220 4.225 4.230 4.235 4.240 4.245 4.250 4.255 4.260 4.265 4.270 4.275 4.280 4.285 4.290 4.295
6 23 30 6 February
13 20 27 5 March
12 19 26 29 April 16 23 30 7
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 815 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 8 15 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 4 11
November 18 25 2 9
December 16 23 30 6
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10
