Informacje i komentarze zawarte w niniejszym raporcie nie stanowi¹ rekomendacji w rozumieniu Rozporz¹dzenia Rady Ministrów z dnia 19 padziernika 2005 roku w sprawie informacji stanowi¹cych rekomendacje dotycz¹ce instrumentów finansowych, ich emitentów lub wystawców. DM nie ponosi odpowiedzialnoci za decyzje inwestycyjne podjête na podstawie informacji zawartych w niniejszym opracowaniu.
Analiza Techniczna
Komentarz: WIG20, S&P 500
Dom Maklerski PKO BP S.A.
ul. Pu³awska 15 02-515 Warszawa tel. (0-22) 521-80-00 Analityk:
Przemys³aw Smoliñski
Wtorek 18.05.2010
Zespó³ Klientów Instytucjonalnych Artur Szymecki 521-82-14 Piotr Dedecjus 521-91-40 Dariusz Andrzejak 521-91-39 Marcin Kuciapski 521-82-12 Krzysztof Kubacki 521-82-10 Krzysztof Zajkowski 521-82-13 Magdalena Kupiec 521-91-50 Tomasz Ilczyszyn 521-82-10 Maklerzy gie³dowi
Mariusz Musia³ 521-78-39
WIG20 (Polska)
WIG20 lekko wczoraj zwy¿kowa³. Choæ tendencja mo¿e siê utrzymaæ jeszcze przez sesjê lub dwie, to jednak nadal obowi¹zuje scenariusz spadkowy. Najbli¿szy opór stanowi obecnie poziom 2459 punktów, a kolejny 2496 punktów.
S&P 500 (USA)
Choæ na wykresie S&P 500 pojawi³a siê wieca z d³ugim dolnym cieniem, sugeruj¹ca krótkoterminowe wyprzedanie rynku, to jednak w rednim terminie ca³y czas wiêcej przemawia za kontynuacj¹ spadków.
1 February
8 15 22 1
March
8 15 22 29 6
April
12 19 26 4
May
10 17
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600 2650
3 10 March 1731 7
April 14 21 28 12
May 192 9
June 16 23 30 7
July 14 21 28 4 11
August 18 25 1 8 15
September 22 29 6
October 13 20 27 3 10
November 24 1 8
December 15 22 5 12
2009 19 26 2 9
February 16 23 2 9
March 16 23 30 6
April 14 20 27
May 11 18 25 1 8
June 15 22 29 6
July 13 20 27 3 10
August 17 24 31 7 14
September 21 28 5 12
October 19 26 2 9
November 23 30 7 14
December 21 4 11
2010 18 25 1 8
February 15 22 1 8
March 15 22 29 6
April 19 26 4 10
May
17 24 3 -35
-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 3100 3200 3300
March April May June JulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2009 FebruaryMarch April May June July AugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2010 FebruaryMarch April May
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 20
650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500
1 February
8 16 22 1
March
8 15 22 29 5
April
12 19 26 3
May
10 17
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
1040
1050
1060
1070
1080
1090
1100
1110
1120
1130
1140
1150
1160
1170
1180
1190
1200
1210
1220
1230
MarchApril May June July AugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2009 FebruaryMarch April May June July AugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2010 FebruaryMarch April May
-35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 10 15 20 25 30 35 -5 0 5 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
10000 15000 20000 25000
1 February
8 15 22 1
March
8 16 22 29
April
6 12 19 26 3
May
10 17
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
20000 20500 21000 21500 22000 22500 23000 23500 24000 24500 25000 25500 26000
April May June July August SeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2009 FebruaryMarch April May June July AugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2010 FebruaryMarch April May
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 40
1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
1 February
8 15 22 1
March
8 15 22 29
April
6 12 19 26 3
May
10 17
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600 2650 2700 2750 2800 2850 2900 2950 3000 3050
ruaryMarch April May June JulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2009FebruaryMarch April May June July AugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2010FebruaryMarch AprilMay
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 40
1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
25 1
February
8 15 24 1
March
9 15 22 29
April
5 12 19 26 4
May 11 17
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450
BUX (Wêgry)
RTX (Rosja)
CECE (Europa rodkowo-
wschodnia)
archAprilMay June JulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2009 FebruaryMarch April May June July AugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2010 FebruaryMarch April May
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 20
3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500
1 February
8 15 22 1
March
8 15 22 29 6
April
12 19 26 3
May
10 17
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
5400 5450 5500 5550 5600 5650 5700 5750 5800 5850 5900 5950 6000 6050 6100 6150 6200 6250 6300 6350 6400
ebruaryMarchApril May June July AugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2009 FebruaryMarch April May June JulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2010 FebruaryMarch April May
-35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 13500 14000 14500 15000
25 1
February
8 15 22 1
March
8 15 23 29
April
5 12 19 26 6
May
10 17
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
9800 9900 10000 10100 10200 10300 10400 10500 10600 10700 10800 10900 11000 11100 11200 11300 11400 11500
ebruaryMarch April May June July AugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2009FebruaryMarch April May June July AugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2010 FebruaryMarch April May
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 20
2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
25 1
February
8 22 1
March
8 15 22 29
April
6 12 19 26 4
May
10 17
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
2500 2550 2600 2650 2700 2750 2800 2850 2900 2950 3000 3050 3100 3150 3200
DAX (Niemcy)
SHCOMP
(Chiny)
NIKKEI 225
(Japonia)
MarchApril May June July AugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2009 FebruaryMarch April May June July AugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2010 FebruaryMarch April May
-40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 10 15 20 25 30 -5 0 5 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500
1 February
8 15 22 1
March
8 15 22 29 6
April
12 19 26 4
May
10 17
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
6100 6200 6300 6400 6500 6600 6700 6800 6900 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400 7500 7600 7700 7800 7900 8000 8100 8200
April May June July AugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2009 FebruaryMarch April May June JulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2010 FebruaryMarch April May
-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 10 15 20 25 30 35 -5 0 5 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
1 February
8 15 22 1
March
8 15 22 29 5
April
12 19 26 3
May
10 17
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90
AprilMayJune July AugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2009 FebruaryMarch AprilMay June July AugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2010 FebruaryMarch AprilMay
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 15
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
ebruary
8 15 22 1
March
8 15 22 29
April
5 12 19 26 3
May
10 17
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
5.35 5.40 5.45 5.50 5.55 5.60 5.65 5.70 5.75 5.80 5.85 5.90 5.95 6.00 6.05 6.10 6.15 6.20
Mied
(LME)
Obligacje 10-letnie (Polska)
Ropa Brent
(Wielka Brytania)
April May June July AugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2009 FebruaryMarch April May June July AugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2010 FebruaryMarch AprilMay
-10
-5 0 5 10 15 20 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 25
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
1 February
8 15 22 1
March
8 15 22 29
April
5 12 19 26 3
May
10 17
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
2.80 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00 3.05 3.10 3.15 3.20 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.40
April May June July AugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2009 FebruaryMarch April May June July AugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2010 FebruaryMarch AprilMay
-5
0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0
1 February
8 15 22 1
March
8 15 22 29
April
5 12 19 26 3
May
10 17
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 100
3.80 3.85 3.90 3.95 4.00 4.05 4.10 4.15 4.20
April May June July AugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2009 FebruaryMarch April May June July AugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember2010 FebruaryMarch April May
