Informacje i komentarze zawarte w niniejszym raporcie nie stanowi¹ rekomendacji w rozumieniu Rozporz¹dzenia Rady Ministrów z dnia 19 padziernika 2005 roku w sprawie informacji stanowi¹cych rekomendacje dotycz¹ce instrumentów finansowych, ich emitentów lub wystawców. DM nie ponosi odpowiedzialnoci za decyzje inwestycyjne podjête na podstawie informacji zawartych w niniejszym opracowaniu.
PKO Dom Maklerski ul. Pu³awska 15 02-515 Warszawa tel. (0-22) 521-80-00 Analityk:
Przemys³aw Smoliñski tel. (0-22) 521-79-10 e-mail:
przemyslaw.smolinski2@pkobp.pl
Analiza Techniczna
Komentarz: WIG20, S&P 500
Poniedzia³ek 21.10.2013
WIG20 (Polska)
Od po³owy ubieg³ego tygodnia WIG20 koryguje wczeniejsze wzrosty. Choæ d³ugi dolny cieñ wczorajszej wiecy mo¿e sugerowaæ zakoñczenie korekty, to jednak na razie brak konkretnych sygna³ów kupna. Jednoczenie w
rednim terminie ca³y czas obowi¹zuje scenariusz wzrostowy o zasiêgu na 2580-2595 punktów.
S&P 500 (USA)
S&P 500 kontynuuje wzrosty, zbli¿aj¹c siê do potencjalnego zasiêgu ruchu na poziomie 1750 punktów. Choæ rynek jest coraz silniej wykupiony, to jednak w przypadku jego pokonania, indeks móg³by siêgn¹æ nawet 1780 punktów.
8 15 22 29
August
5 12 19 26 2
September
9 16 23 30
October
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
2140 2150 2160 2170 2180 2190 2200 2210 2220 2230 2240 2250 2260 2270 2280 2290 2300 2310 2320 2330 2340 2350 2360 2370 2380 2390 2400 2410 2420 2430 2440 2450 2460 2470 2480 2490 2500 2510 2520 2530 2540 2550 2560 2570
8 gust
16 22 29 512 September 19 26 310
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 27 2 9
2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 10
April 16 23 30
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 512
November 19 26 310
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28
N
-15 -10 -5 0 5 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 10
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600 2650
15 22 29 6 12 September 19 26 310
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 27 3 9
2012 17 23 30 6
February 13 21 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 9
April 16 23 30
May 714 21 29 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 4 10
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 31
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 22 28 411
February 19 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 815 22 29 6
May 13 20 28 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 3 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28
N
-11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 9
1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800
8 15 22 29
August
5 12 19 26 3
September
9 16 23 30
October
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
1605 1610 1615 1620 1625 1630 1635 1640 1645 1650 1655 1660 1665 1670 1675 1680 1685 1690 1695 1700 1705 1710 1715 1720 1725 1730 1735 1740 1745 1750 1755
Wykres dnia: Rovese
Po wykonaniu ruchu powrotnego do prze³amanego, krótkoterminowego oporu, Rovese na nowo podjê³o w pi¹tek wzrosty. Minimalny zasiêg ruchu nale¿y szacowaæ na okolicê 2,20 z³, ale prawdopodobnie kurs siêgnie 2,36 z³ lub nawet 2,55, gdzie przebiega górne ograniczenia d³ugoterminowego kana³u wzrostowego.
Rovese (Polska)
25 4
March 11 18 25 2
April 8 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 8 15 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 2 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 4
No
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 .1 0
1 .1 5
1 .2 0
1 .2 5
1 .3 0
1 .3 5
1 .4 0
1 .4 5
1 .5 0
1 .5 5
1 .6 0
1 .6 5
1 .7 0
1 .7 5
1 .8 0
1 .8 5
1 .9 0
1 .9 5
2 .0 0
2 .0 5
2 .1 0
2 .1 5
2 .2 0
2 .2 5
2 .3 0
2 .3 5
2 .4 0
2 .4 5
2 .5 0
2 .5 5
2 .6 0
2 .6 5
2 .7 0
21 padziernik 2013 3
8 August
15 22 29 512 September 19 26 310
October 17 24 2
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 27 2
2012 9 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 1226 2 10
April 16 23 2
May 14 21 29 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 21 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 24512
November 19 26 310
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 21 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 2129
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28
N
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
14500 15000 15500 16000 16500 17000 17500 18000 18500 19000 19500 20000 20500 21000
8 15 22 29
August
5 12 21 26 2
September
9 16 23 30
October
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
17600 17700 17800 17900 18000 18100 18200 18300 18400 18500 18600 18700 18800 18900 19000 19100 19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900
2 29 5 12 September 19 26 3 10
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 512
December 19 27 2
2012 916 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 10
April 16 23 30 7
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28
N
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600 2650 2700 2750
8 15 22 29
August
5 12 19 26 2
September
9 16 23 30
October
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Oscylator krotkoterminowy
1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450
15 22 29 512 September 19 26 310
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 26 3 9
2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2
April 916 23 2
May 14 21 28 4
June 1325 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 6 12
November 19 26 310
December 17 24 8 14
2013 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 815 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28
N
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 20
1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600
8 15 22 29
August
5 12 19 26 2
September
9 16 23 30
October
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
1770 1780 1790 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 2160 2170
BUX (Wêgry)
RTX (Rosja)
CECE (Europa rodkowo-
wschodnia)
2295 September 1219263
October 101724317
November 1421285
December 121927 2
2012 91623306
February 1320275
March 1219262
April 10 162330 7
May 1421284
June 1118252
July 91623306
August 132027310
September 17241
October 81522295
November 121926310
December 17277
2013 1421284
February 1118254
March 111825 2
April 81522296
May 1320273
June 1017241
July 81522295
August 12192629
September 1623307
October 1421284
N -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 6500 6600 6700 6800 6900 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400 7500 7600 7700 7800 7900 8000 8100 8200 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900 9000 9100 9200 9300
8 15 22 29
August
5 12 19 26 2
September
9 16 23 30
October
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Oscylator krotkoterminowy
7800 7850 7900 7950 8000 8050 8100 8150 8200 8250 8300 8350 8400 8450 8500 8550 8600 8650 8700 8750 8800 8850 8900 8950
5 18 August
15 22 29 5 12 September 20311
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 26 4
2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2
April 9 16 23 1
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 917 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 18 24 19
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 25 7
2013 15 21 28 412
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 815 22 30
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 816 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 17 24 30 7
October 15 21 28 4
N
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 13500 14000 14500 15000 15500 16000 16500
8 16 22 29
August
5 12 19 26 2
September
9 17 24 30
October
7 15 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
13050 13100 13150 13200 13250 13300 13350 13400 13450 13500 13550 13600 13650 13700 13750 13800 13850 13900 13950 14000 14050 14100 14150 14200 14250 14300 14350 14400 14450 14500 14550 14600 14650 14700 14750 14800 14850 14900 14950 15000 15050 15100
uly 11 18 25 18
August 15 22 29 513
September 19 26 10 17
October 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 26 4
2012 16 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 5
April 16 23 2
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 815
October 22 29 512
November 19 26 3 10
December 17 24 31
2013 14 21 28 418
February 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 15 22 2
May 13 20 27 3
June 1324 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 1630 14
October 21 28 4
N
-10
-5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600 2650 2700 2750 2800 2850 2900
1 July
8 15 22 29
August
5 12 19 26 2
September
9 16 23 30
October
14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 2160 2170 2180 2190 2200 2210 2220 2230 2240 2250 2260 2270 2280 2290 2300
DAX (Niemcy)
SHCOMP
(Chiny)
NIKKEI 225
(Japonia)
21 padziernik 2013 5
15 22 30 512 September 19 26 310
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 289
2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 10
April 16 23 30
May 8 14 21 28 6
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 28 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 247
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 7
May 13 20 28 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 27 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28
N
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
6500 6600 6700 6800 6900 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400 7500 7600 7700 7800 7900 8000 8100 8200 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900 9000 9100 9200 9300 9400 9500
8 15 22 29
August
5 12 19 27 2
September
9 16 23 30
October
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Oscylator krotkoterminowy
6650 6700 6750 6800 6850 6900 6950 7000 7050 7100 7150 7200 7250 7300 7350 7400 7450
512 September 19 26 310
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 27 3 9
2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 9
April 16 23 30
May 7 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 9 16 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 3 10
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 512
November 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 815 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28
N
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130
8 15 22 29
August
5 12 19 26 2
September
9 16 23 30
October
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
105.0 105.5 106.0 106.5 107.0 107.5 108.0 108.5 109.0 109.5 110.0 110.5 111.0 111.5 112.0 112.5 113.0 113.5 114.0 114.5 115.0 115.5 116.0 116.5 117.0 117.5 118.0 118.5 119.0 119.5
2 29 5 12 September 19 26 3 10
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 512
December 19 26 2
2012 916 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 10
April 16 23 30 7
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 277
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28
N
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
July
8 15 22 29
August
5 19 26 2
September
9 16 23 30
October
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
3.60 3.65 3.70 3.75 3.80 3.85 3.90 3.95 4.00 4.05 4.10 4.15 4.20 4.25 4.30 4.35 4.40 4.45 4.50 4.55 4.60 4.65 4.70 4.75 4.80 4.85 4.90 4.95 5.00 5.05 5.10
Mied
(LME)
Obligacje 10-letnie (Polska)
Ropa Brent
(Wielka Brytania)
12 tember 19 26 310
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 26 2
2012 916 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2
April 9 16 23 30
May 7 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 9 16 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 512
November 19 26 3 10
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 815 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28
N
-9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
3.00 3.05 3.10 3.15 3.20 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.40 3.45 3.50 3.55 3.60 3.65
8 15 22 29
August
5 12 19 26 2
September
9 16 23 30
October
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
3.02 3.03 3.04 3.05 3.06 3.07 3.08 3.09 3.10 3.11 3.12 3.13 3.14 3.15 3.16 3.17 3.18 3.19 3.20 3.21 3.22 3.23 3.24 3.25 3.26 3.27 3.28 3.29 3.30 3.31 3.32 3.33 3.34 3.35 3.36 3.37 3.38 3.39 3.40 3.41
5 22 29 512 September 19 26 310
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 26 2 9
2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2
April 916 23 30
May 7 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 1 8
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 9 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28
N
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
3.95 4.00 4.05 4.10 4.15 4.20 4.25 4.30 4.35 4.40 4.45 4.50 4.55 4.60 4.65
8 15 22 29 5
August
12 19 26 2
September
9 16 23 30
October
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
4.130 4.135 4.140 4.145 4.150 4.155 4.160 4.165 4.170 4.175 4.180 4.185 4.190 4.195 4.200 4.205 4.210 4.215 4.220 4.225 4.230 4.235 4.240 4.245 4.250 4.255 4.260 4.265 4.270 4.275 4.280 4.285 4.290 4.295 4.300 4.305 4.310 4.315 4.320 4.325 4.330 4.335 4.340 4.345 4.350 4.355 4.360
12 tember 19 26 310
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 26 2
2012 916 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2
April 9 16 23 30
May 7 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 9 16 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 512
November 19 26 3 10
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 815 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28
N
