Procedia Engineering 89 ( 2014 ) 1058 – 1065
1877-7058 © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of the Organizing Committee of WDSA 2014 doi: 10.1016/j.proeng.2014.11.225
ScienceDirect
WK&RQIHUHQFHRQ:DWHU'LVWULEXWLRQ6\VWHP$QDO\VLV:'6$
,QWHUDFWLYH:DWHU6HUYLFHV7KH:$7(5120,&6$SSURDFK
(&OLIIRUG
D'&RDNOH\
DE(&XUU\
F9'HJHOHU
F$&RVWD
G70HVVHUYH\
G6-9DQ
$QGHO
H19DQGH*LHVHQ
I&.RXURXSHWURJORX
J-0LQN
K66PLW
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
© 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).
,QWURGXFWLRQ *OREDOHQHUJ\DQGZDWHUGHPDQGLVH[SHFWHGWRULVHRYHUWKHQH[W\HDUV>@7KH:RUOG(FRQRPLF)RUXP KDVFLWHG³7KH:DWHU6XSSO\&ULVHV´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
)LJ:$7(5120,&63ODWIRUP 6RXUFHV$WWKHERWWRPRIWKHDUFKLWHFWXUHDUHWKHH[LVWLQJRSHUDWLRQDOOHJDF\LQIRUPDWLRQV\VWHPV7KHVHLQFOXGH H[LVWLQJKRXVHKROGZDWHUPHWHUVSXPSLQJVWDWLRQPRQLWRULQJPHWHRURORJLFDOGDWDHWF'DWDDGDSWHUVZLOOFRQYHUWWKLV LQIRUPDWLRQWR5')5HVRXUFH'HVFULSWLRQ)UDPHZRUNLQRUGHUWRVWDQGDUGLVHFRQWH[WXDOLVHDQGOLQNHDFKLQGLYLGXDO GDWDVRXUFH7KLVSURFHVVWUDQVIRUPVPXOWLSOHOHJDF\GDWDIRUPDWVDQGOLIWVLWWRWKHGDWDVSDFH /LQNHG:DWHU'DWD7KHOLQNHGGDWDVSDFH>@OLQNVGDWDDWWKHLQIRUPDWLRQOHYHOE\IRFXVLQJRQWKHFRQFHSWXDO
VLPLODULWLHV EHWZHHQ LQIRUPDWLRQ DV KDV DOUHDG\ EHHQ VXFFHVVIXOO\ DSSOLHG WR VROYH VLPLODU SUREOHPV ZLWKLQ WKH %XLOGLQJ0DQDJHPHQW>@DQGWKH(QHUJ\0DQDJHPHQW>@GRPDLQV7KLVLVDFKLHYHGE\IROORZLQJDQHQWLW\FHQWULF DSSURDFK WKDW IRFXVHV RQ WKH FRQFHSWV WKDW H[LVW ZLWKLQ WKH V\VWHPV IRU H[DPSOH EXVLQHVV HQWLWLHV OLNH EXLOGLQJV URRPV HPSOR\HHV SURGXFWV DQG HTXLSPHQW (QWLWLHV ZLWKLQ WKH GDWDVSDFH DUH HQULFKHG ZLWK GDWD IURP PXOWLSOH V\VWHPVUHVXOWLQJLQDFORXGRILQWHUOLQNHGUHVRXUFHV7KHUHVXOWLQJµ/LQNHG:DWHU&ORXG¶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
$SSOLFDWLRQV
7KH:$7(5120,&6SODWIRUPIRUPVWKHEDVLVIRUWKHGHOLYHU\RIDQXPEHURINH\VHUYLFHVDVRXWOLQHGLQWKH SURMHFWREMHFWLYHV
)LJ:$7(5120&,6DSSOLFDWLRQV :DWHU$QDO\VLV6HUYLFHV
$QDO\VLV DSSOLFDWLRQV ZLOO XVH WKH ULFK GDWD SURYLGHG E\ WKH :$7(5120,&6 SODWIRUP WR SURYLGH DGGLWLRQDO LQVLJKWLQWRWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRIWKHXQGHUO\LQJV\VWHPV
:DWHU 8VDJH 3UHGLFWLRQ 0RGHOV $Q RSHUDWLRQDO UHDOWLPH IRUHFDVWLQJ V\VWHP RI ZDWHU DYDLODELOLW\ ZLOO EH
GHYHORSHG WR LQFUHDVH DZDUHQHVV DW WKH KRXVHKROG OHYHO GXULQJ SHULRGV RI ZDWHU VFDUFLW\ 7KH IRUHFDVW RI ZDWHU DYDLODELOLW\ZLOOEHWUDQVIRUPHGLQWRDQLQGLFDWRUWKDWVKRZVWRWKHKRXVHKROGFRQVXPHUWKHFXUUHQWQHHGIRUHIILFLHQW ZDWHUXVH7KHVHUYLFHZLOODQDO\VHSUHYLRXVZDWHUXVDJHDQGDYDLODELOLW\DQGZLOOIRUHFDVWZDWHUXVDJHDQGDYDLODELOLW\ IRUDVSHFLILHGIRUHFDVWKRUL]RQ
+\GURPHWHRURORJLFDO 'URXJKW )RUHFDVW :$7(5120,&6 ZLOO SURYLGH K\GURPHWHRURORJLFDO IRUHFDVWV IRU
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
&LWL]HQ UHSRUWLQJ FURZGVRXUFLQJ $ VWDQGDUG SURFHGXUH WKDW ZDWHU XWLOLWLHV XVH WR GHDO ZLWK GDPDJHV LQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQQHWZRUNLVWRDOORZFLWL]HQVUHSRUWLQJYLVLEOHZDWHUOHDNVE\SKRQH /HDNGHWHFWRUVDWKRXVHKROGOHYHO$QXPEHURIGHYLFHVKDYHEHHQSURSRVHGWRGHWHFWOHDNDJHVDWKRXVHKROGOHYHO2Q VXFKGHYLFHXVHVHOHFWULFVHQVRUVWKDWDUHDFWLYDWHGRQFHH[FHVVZDWHUHJIURPDOHDNLVGHWHFWHG 6PDUWSKRQHDSSV'XULQJWKHQLJKWZHZLOOPRQLWRUWKHVRXQGLQWKHSLSHVDWDQGQHDUKRXVHKROGOHYHOZKHQWKH SKRQHVDUHFKDUJLQJWKHEDFNJURXQGQRLVHLVORZDQGWKHSUHVVXUHLQWKHV\VWHPLVKLJK,WLVH[SHFWHGWKDWOHDNV IURPWKHSLSHVLQWKHVWUHHWVFDQDOVREHGHWHFWHGE\WKHVHGHYLFHVDOORZLQJIRUDQDFFXUDWHOHDNDJHPDSSLQJRIWKH HQWLUHQHWZRUN
,QDGGLWLRQ:$7(5120,&6ZLOOEXLOGRQWKHH[SHULHQFHRIIDXOWGHWHFWLRQDQGGLDJQRVLVLQRWKHULQGXVWULHVVXFK DVGHWHFWLRQRIOHDNVDQGFRPSRQHQWIDLOXUHVLQ+9$&+HDWLQJ9HQWLODWLRQDQG$LU&RQGLWLRQLQJV\VWHPV>@±>@
,QWHUDFWLYH:DWHU,QIRUPDWLRQ6HUYLFHV
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¶ EHKDYLRXU ,Q IDFW WKHUH DUH DOUHDG\ D QXPEHU RI FDVHV ZKHUH KRXVHKROGVFRPSDQLHVDQGFLWLHVDUHH[SORLWLQJWKHEHQHILWVRIVPDUWZDWHUPHWHULQJJULGVDQGWKHLUUHDOWLPHZDWHU XVDJHVHUYLFHV2QHVXFKFDVHLVWKH VRIWZDUH XWLOLWLHVDQGWKHVPDUW PHWHULQJLQIUDVWUXFWXUHGHYHORSHGE\2UDFOH
XWLOLWLHVZKLFKKHOSVZDWHUVXSSO\FRPSDQLHVWRPHHWGHPDQGDQGHQGXVHUVWRPDQDJHWKHLUZDWHUXVDJHHIIHFWLYHO\ L4XDWLFÁZDWHUPRQLWRULQJLVDQRWKHUH[DPSOHRIVXFKDQDSSOLFDWLRQPDNLQJHDVLHUWRPRQLWRUZDWHUXVDJHLQUHDO
WLPH WKURXJK D VSHFLDOO\ GHVLJQHG LQIRUPDWLRQ SODWIRUP $W FLW\ OHYHO 1HZ <RUN &LW\ZKHUH ZLUHOHVV PHWHUV DUH
LQVWDOOHGLQWKHLUZDWHUVXSSO\QHWZRUNLQRUGHUWRKHOSFLW\RIILFLDOVWRWUDFNZDWHUXVHLQUHDOWLPH
:$7(5120,&6 ZLOO H[SORLW D QXPEHU RI GLIIHUHQW SHUVXDVLYH WHFKQRORJLHV IRU DIIHFWLQJ XVHUV¶ EHKDYLRXU WDUJHWLQJQRWRQO\HQGXVHUEHKDYLRXUFKDQJHDWDKRXVHKROGOHYHOEXWDOVRDWFRPSDQ\DQGFLW\OHYHO7KHHIIHFWVRI SHUVRQDOL]HGDQGFXVWRPL]DEOHVROXWLRQVDWWKHVHOHYHOVZLOODOVREHLQYHVWLJDWHG
'HFLVLRQ6XSSRUW6\VWHPV
'HFLVLRQ VXSSRUWV\VWHPVIRU ZDWHUDUHW\SLFDOO\LQV\VWHPVIRUVWUDWHJLFGHFLVLRQVDQGWKRVH IRURSHUDWLRQDQG PDLQWHQDQFH>@6WUDWHJLFGHFLVLRQVFRQFHUQORQJWHUPLQYHVWPHQWVDQGSXEOLFSROLF\>@7KHGHFLVLRQVXSSRUW V\VWHPRI:$7(5120,&6IRFXVHVPDLQO\RQHIILFLHQF\JDLQVWKURXJKLPSURYHGRSHUDWLRQDQGPDLQWHQDQFH
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³VLPSO\´ GHVLJQ DQRWKHU RSHUDWLRQDO PHWKRG ,QVWHDG VFLHQWLVWV DQG VWDNHKROGHUVZLOOEHHQJDJHGZLWKLQ:$7(5120,&6LQDFRQWLQXRXVGLDORJXHLQRUGHUWRFORVHWKHJDSEHWZHHQ H[LVWLQJDFDGHPLFNQRZOHGJHDGYDQFHGDOJRULWKPVDQGWKHZDWHUVXSSO\SURFHVVGDLO\SUDFWLFH&ORVLQJWKLVJDS ZLOOEHEDVHGRQWKHDQDO\VLVRILQIRUPDWLRQGHPDQG>@
'HPRQVWUDWLRQ
7KH :$7(5120,&6 SODWIRUP ZLOO EH GHSOR\HG RQ WKUHHSLORW VLWHV FDSWXULQJ D YDULHW\ RI HQGXVH DFWLYLWLHV DSSOLFDWLRQVDQGFOLPDWHV KWWSZZZGLJLWDORSSRUWXQLW\RUJQHZVWKDLODQGWRODXQFKHVHUYLFHWRPRQLWRUZDWHUXVH ÁKWWSZZZQRYHGDFRPVROXWLRQVZDWHUPDQDJHPHQWLTXDWLFZDWHUPRQLWRULQJ KWWSZZZIDVWFRPSDQ\FRPQ\FEHJLQWUDFNLQJZDWHUXVHUHDOWLPHZLUHOHVVPHWHUV
7DEOH:$7(5120,&6GHPRQVWUDWLRQSLORWV
3LORW
7\SH $XGLHQFH &OLPDWH 7DULIIV ([LVWLQJ0HWHULQJ 1R 8VHUV ([LVWLQJ /HDN 'HWHFWLRQ 'RPHVWLF 3XEOLF 3XEOLF HPSOR\HHV VWXGHQWV DQG KRXVHKROGV 7HPSHUDWHFRDVWDO FOLPDWH )ODWZDWHU /LPLWHG ZDWHU PHWHULQJ a 1RQH 0XQLFLSDO +RXVHKROGV PLFUR EXVLQHVVHV DQG WKH PXQLFLSDOXWLOLW\ 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ )ODWZDWHU &KDQJHRYHU XQGHUZD\ WR QHZ VHQVRUV ZLWK WHOHPHWU\ a 1RQH &RUSRUDWH 0DQDJHPHQW WHDPV DQG HPSOR\HHV LQ D FRPPHUFLDOVHWWLQJ +XPLG VXEWURSLFDO FOLPDWH )ODW ZDWHU DQG ZDVWHZDWHU /LPLWHGWRQRQH a 1RQH 'RPHVWLF3XEOLF :DWHUXVHGE\KRXVHKROGVLVW\SLFDOO\RIWKHSXEOLFZDWHUVXSSO\DFURVV(XURSH>@:DWHUHIILFLHQW GRPHVWLF DSSOLDQFHV VXFK DV ZDVKLQJ PDFKLQHV RU GLVKZDVKHUV KDYH DOUHDG\ FRQWULEXWHG WRZDUGV UHGXFLQJ ZDWHU XVDJH+RZHYHUPRUHVLJQLILFDQWVWHSVPXVWEHWDNHQLQRUGHUWRLQFUHDVHSHRSOH¶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
HIILFDF\ RI :$7(5120,&6 LQ VLJQLILFDQWO\ LPSURYLQJDQG LQFUHDVLQJ WKH LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ KRXVHKROGHUV DQG XWLOLWLHV 0XQLFLSDO 7KLVSLORWZLOOGHPRQVWUDWHDWDGLVWULFWPHWHUHGDUHDOHYHOWKH:$7(5120,&63ODWIRUPLQDPXQLFLSDOLW\)RU PDQ\PXQLFLSDOLWLHVWKH\DUHERWKDPDMRUZDWHUSURYLGHUEXWDOVRDPDMRUZDWHUXVHU$ERXWRIZDWHUDEVWUDFWLRQ LVDFFRXQWHGIRUE\PXQLFLSDOLWLHVSXEOLFZDWHUVXSSOLHV>@.H\FKDOOHQJHVIRUPXQLFLSDOLWLHVLQFOXGHYDULDWLRQVLQ GHPDQG PXOWLSOH FRQVXPHU W\SHV KLJK GHPDQG SHULRGV GXH WR IHVWLYDOV FRQFHUWV WRXULVP HWF FKDQJLQJ GHPRJUDSKLFVOHDNVLQVXSSO\LQIUDVWUXFWXUHHWF
$V ZLWK PDQ\ PXQLFLSDOLWLHV LQ (XURSH DQG LQGHHG LQWHUQDWLRQDOO\ SODQQHG NH\ ZDWHU VDYLQJ LQLWLDWLYHV DW WKH PXQLFLSDOOHYHOLQFOXGHLWKHDELOLW\WRFKDQJHFRQVXPHUEHKDYLRXULLUDLVHDZDUHQHVVDQGLLLUHGXFHQRQUHYHQXH ZDWHU 2WKHU LQLWLDWLYHV VXFK DV UDLQZDWHU KDUYHVWLQJ DQG JUH\ZDWHU UHXVH FDQ RIWHQ IROORZ ZKHQ FRQVXPHU DQG VXSSOLHUDZDUHQHVVLVKLJK &RUSRUDWH 7KLVSLORWZLOOH[SORUHWKHGHSOR\PHQWRILQQRYDWLYH,&7DQGRIIWKHVKHOI,&7XQGHUWKHFRQVWUDLQWRIDIL[HGYDOXH LQYHVWPHQWWRYDOLGDWHWKH:$7(5120,&63ODWIRUPHQDFWGDWDDQDO\VLVWHFKQLTXHVDQGTXDQWLI\ZDWHUHQHUJ\DQG &2VDYLQJV7KHFRPPHUFLDOSLORWKDVDQDQQXDOZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQRIDERXWPDQGDQDQQXDOZDWHUFRVW RIDSSUR[LPDWHO\¼N$WSUHVHQWWKHUHLVDODFNRIPHWHULQJDQGLQDELOLW\WRWUDFNZDWHUORVVHVDQGZDVWDJHVZLWKLQ WKH V\VWHP /DFN RI PHWHULQJ DOVR SUHYHQWV SURYLGLQJ IHHGEDFN RU LQFHQWLYH WR LWV VXE FRQFHVVLRQDLUHVDERXW WKHLU FRQVXPSWLRQGHPDQGPDQDJHPHQW)RUH[DPSOHVXEFRQFHVVLRQDULHVLQDQRQPHWHUHGDUHDPD\EHELOOHGEDVHGRQ DJURXSDYHUDJHDQGQRWRQWKHLULQGLYLGXDOFRQVXPSWLRQ
&RQFOXVLRQV
7KHUHVHDUFKWDVNLQ:$7(5120,&6LVWRGHYHORSDV\VWHPDWLFDQGVWDQGDUGVEDVHGPHWKRGRORJ\IRUWKHGHVLJQ DQG LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI DQ ,&7EDVHG ZDWHU PDQDJHPHQW V\VWHP 7KLV UHVHDUFK FRPELQHG ZLWK WKH GHPRQVWUDWRU DFWLYLWLHVZLOOKHOS:$7(5120,&6DGGUHVVNH\WHFKQLFDOFKDOOHQJHVLQFOXGLQJ
7DEOH:$7(5120,&6NH\LVVXHVWREHDGGUHVVHG
7\SH 'HVFULSWLRQ
7HFKQLFDO 6HQVRUORFDWLRQVPHDVXUHPHQWVFRPPXQLFDWLRQDUFKLWHFWXUHDQGFRQVHTXHQFHVDUHDSSURSULDWHIRUGLVWULFWPHWHULQJ
5HSRUWLQJ
&RPPXQLFDWLRQ 'HFLGHRQUHOHYDQWPHWULFVDQGNH\SHUIRUPDQFHLQGLFDWRUVWRFROOHFW
(FRQRPLF,QIUDVWUXFWXUDO $QDO\]HFRVWVDQGEHQHILWV±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³/LQNHG:DWHU'DWDIRU:DWHU,QIRUPDWLRQ0DQDJHPHQW´LQ3URFRIWK,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQ+\GURLQIRUPDWLFV+,&1HZ <RUN1HZ<RUN86$ >@ (&XUU\-2'RQQHOO(&RUU\6+DVDQ0.HDQHDQG625LDLQ/LQNLQJ%XLOGLQJ'DWDLQWKH&ORXG ,QWHJUDWLQJ&URVV'RPDLQ %XLOGLQJ'DWDXVLQJ/LQNHG'DWD$GY(QJ,QIRUPDWLFV±
>@ ( &XUU\ 6 +DVDQ DQG 6 2¶5LDLQ (QWHUSULVH HQHUJ\ PDQDJHPHQW XVLQJ D OLQNHG GDWDVSDFH IRU (QHUJ\ ,QWHOOLJHQFH LQ 6HFRQG ,),3 &RQIHUHQFHRQ6XVWDLQDEOH,QWHUQHWDQG,&7IRU6XVWDLQDELOLW\6XVWDLQ,73LVD,WDO\SS± >@ .)UDQ]1$MDPL-6FKDDNHDQG5%XL]]D+\GURORJLFHQVHPEOHSUHGLFWLRQH[SHULPHQWIRFXVHVRQUHOLDEOHIRUHFDVWV(RV7UDQV$P *HRSK\V8QLRQ >@ 6-DQYDQ$QGHO5.3ULFH$+/REEUHFKW)YDQ.UXLQLQJHQDQG50XUHDX(QVHPEOH3UHFLSLWDWLRQDQG:DWHU/HYHO)RUHFDVWVIRU $QWLFLSDWRU\:DWHU6\VWHP&RQWURO-+\GURPHWHRURO± >@ /5DVR1YDQGH*LHVHQ36WLYH'6FKZDQHQEHUJDQG3-YDQ2YHUORRS7UHHVWUXFWXUHJHQHUDWLRQIURPHQVHPEOHIRUHFDVWVIRUUHDOWLPH FRQWURO+\GURO3URFHVV± >@ '+DUWOH\$FRXVWLFV3DSHULQ3URFRIWK,:$:DWHU/RVV5HGXFWLRQ6SHFLDOLVW&RQIHUHQFH+DJXH7KH1HWKHUODQGVSS± >@ .%UXWRQ35DIWHU\DQG32¶'RQRYDQ'HYHORSPHQWDQGDOSKDWHVWLQJRIDFORXGEDVHGDXWRPDWHGIDXOWGHWHFWLRQDQGGLDJQRVLVWRROIRU $LU+DQGOLQJ8QLWV$XWRP&RQVWU± >@.%UXWRQ'&RDNOH\32¶'RQRYDQ00.HDQHDQG'2¶6XOOLYDQ'HYHORSPHQWRIDQ2QOLQH([SHUW5XOHEDVHG$XWRPDWHG)DXOW 'HWHFWLRQDQG'LDJQRVWLF$)''WRROIRU$LU+DQGOLQJ8QLWV%HWD7HVW5HVXOWVLQ,&(%2,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHIRU(QKDQFHG%XLOGLQJ 2SHUDWLRQV0RQWUpDO&DQDGD >@6.DWLSDPXODDQG0%UDPEOH\0HWKRGVIRU)DXOW'HWHFWLRQ'LDJQRVWLFVDQG3URJQRVWLFVIRU%XLOGLQJ6\VWHPV²$5HYLHZ3DUW,,QW +9$&55HV± >@)/HSH6DOD]DU7<DPDEH7$OH[DQGURYD</LXDQG71DNDMLPD³)DPLO\LQWHUDFWLRQIRUUHVSRQVLEOHQDWXUDOUHVRXUFHFRQVXPSWLRQLQ 3URFRIWKH$&0DQQXDOFRQIHUHQFHH[WHQGHGDEVWUDFWVRQ+XPDQ)DFWRUVLQ&RPSXWLQJ6\VWHPV([WHQGHG$EVWUDFWV&+,($¶ 1HZ<RUN1HZ<RUN86$SS >@60DNRQLQ33DVTXLHUDQG/%DUWUDP(OHPHQWVRI&RQVXPSWLRQ$Q$EVWUDFW9LVXDOL]DWLRQRI+RXVHKROG&RQVXPSWLRQLQ6PDUW*UDSKLFV 6(/'LFNPDQQ*9RONPDQQ50DODND6%ROO$.UJHUDQG32OLYLHU(GV6SULQJHU%HUOLQ+HLGHOEHUJ± >@56RQFLQL6HVVD/9LOOD(:HEHUDQG$(5L]]ROL7ZR/HDVRIWZDUHWRROIRUSODQQLQJDQGPDQDJHPHQWRIZDWHUUHVHUYRLUQHWZRUNV +\GURO6FL-± >@&'RQJ*6FKRXSVDQG1YDQGH*LHVHQ6FHQDULRGHYHORSPHQWIRUZDWHUUHVRXUFHSODQQLQJDQGPDQDJHPHQW$UHYLHZ7HFKQRO)RUHFDVW 6RF&KDQJH± >@.-$VWURP3,'FRQWUROOHUVWKHRU\GHVLJQDQGWXQLQJ,QVWUXP6RF$P >@3-YDQ2YHUORRS6:HLMVDQG6'LMNVWUD0XOWLSOH0RGHO3UHGLFWLYH&RQWURORQDGUDLQDJHFDQDOV\VWHP&RQWURO(QJ3UDFW ± >@'3%HUWVHNDV'\QDPLFSURJUDPPLQJDQGRSWLPDOFRQWURO$WKHQD6FLHQWLILF%HOPRQW0$YROQR >@-$(%-DQVVHQ$<+RHNVWUD-/GH.RNDQG50-6FKLHOHQ'HOLQHDWLQJWKH0RGHO6WDNHKROGHU*DS)UDPLQJ3HUFHSWLRQVWR $QDO\VHWKH,QIRUPDWLRQ5HTXLUHPHQWLQ5LYHU0DQDJHPHQW:DWHU5HVRXU0DQDJ± >@(XURSHDQ(QYLURQPHQW$JHQF\(($7RZDUGVHIILFLHQWXVHRIZDWHUUHVRXUFHVLQ(XURSH5HSRUW1R