Assessment of risk to shipping through collisions and strandings in the COST 301 area + Appendices

AN 2137

ASSESSMENT OF RISK TO SHIPPING THROUGH

COLLISIONS AND STRAND1NGS IN

THE COST

301 AREA

Problem Area Identifier

Report on COST 301 Task No. 2.46

APPENDIX

PROBLEM AREA IDENTIFIER - DISCUSSION PAPER (Presented at Working Group Meeting on 6.6.83

General

in orderto develop a mèans of quantifying the risks associated with marine traffic in a particular area, it is necessary firstly to

estimate the probability of ship casualties and secondly to estimate

the possible consequences of such casualties. Since the COST 301 project is concerned with the contribution which shore based systems may make to maritime safety, the types of casualty considered are collisions and strandings.

Casualty probabilities

Estimation of the probability of a particular type of casualty may be made on the basis of empirical data, i.e. from historical casualty

rates, or on the basis o.f theoretical models and simulation tech-niques. in most cases, the casualty rate in a limited area of study will be too low for a satisfactory estimation of probability based on empirical data, and this is particularly the case since a breakdown by class, of ship is desirable if estimates of consequences are to be

credible. For instance, according to Jensson and Larsen of Det Norske Ventas, in the history of transporting hazardous liquified gases by ships, no accident has ever occurred resulting in loss of life among the general public.. It is therefore necessary to develop a theoretical model which can be used to give an estimate of the probability of

casualties.

2.1

Collision prob.ability

A number of methods have been used for estimating the risk of collsion in an area of sea for which suitable traffic data is available. Some of these, e.g. by Lewison (1) lead to a direct estimation of collision probability, whilst others, e.g. by Van der Tak and Spaans

(2)

and by Goodwin et al (3) define a risk criterion which is suggested as having a direct relationship with collision risk. All of these are based on an initial estimation of encounter rates which are then weighted in various ways.

A difficulty in applying any of the methods so far published is that some fairly detailed knowledge of the traffic distribution in the area of application is needed. Such a detailed knowledge is not likely to be available for all the sea areas which are included in the COST-301 project and so it would appear that a simpler methbd must be used. It would seem, however, that an estimate of collision probabilities would

need to be based on an estimate of encounter rates together with some form of weighting.

The information concerning traffic data, provided from task 2.11

should therefore be sufficiently detailed to allow encounter rates to be calculated. This implies the need for the identification of the primary shipping routes together with route densities, ship speed distribution and cross track distribution.

2.2

Stranding probability

The topic of ship strandings has attracted less attention than the topic of ship collisions despite some spectacular local examples such as the Torrey Canyon, the Amoco Cadiz and the Christos-Bitas. There

have, however, been several studies concerning the probability of ship striking fïxed offshore structures and this type of casualty has much in comon with strandings.

A possible model for estimating stranding rates is to quantify the

number of ship passing through a study area on which the standard of

2

navigation is _{inadequate, and to}

combine this _{figure with the}

opportunities for stranding _{which are}

presented by the _hydrographic features of the _{area as related to the}

shipping routes. _{The total} number of inadequately

navigated ships deduced _{in such a model}

could

be made up of ships _{which are considered,}

to bé inadequately _navigated

all the time and _{fractions of ships}

representing those which _{may be} generally competently

navigated but with large

errors occurring for a certain proportion of the time.

The traffic data _{provided from task}

2.11, _{should be sufficient} to

allow a _{relationship to be}

established between _{the shipping}

routes through an _{area and the}

hydrographjc _{features which provide} opportunities for stranding.

The accident data _{from task 2.12}

should

help to calibrate _{the model in}

respect of the _{proportion of ships} on which the _{navigation may}

be _considered

. inadequate. ' Detaïlêd

information on the observed passing

distances for navigation marks and fixed structures _{from task 2.11 may also contribute}

to estimating this

proportion. 3.

Casualty consequences An assessment ôf _{the likely}

consequences of casualties _{in a particular} area is an important

component of a problem

area identifier. The main

consequences may be

categorised as loss of _{property, loss of life,}

and

environmental damage. It would seem desirable

to measure each of these consequences in terms of the

same. unit and it _{is therefore}

suggested that they should

be quantified in _{monetary terms}

so that they may be aggregated to form a suitable component

of the problem area identifier and also to form an input for a

Cost/benefit analysis. _{It is suggested} that the final _{report should include}

estimates of loss of _property, loss of life and

environmental damage as separate items since _{the form} which these take _{may affect eventual}

decisions. For _{example, local}

facilities, in a _{particular area}

may be able to

_{cope with frequent}

large spills,

although the expected annual _{cost'might be the}

same for

each case.

Information concerning the costs of _{casualties has been}

collected and analysed,, but only _{partly published by}

'Giziarkjs (4). It

wbuld be

helpful if the accident

data contributed from task 2.12 could _contain estimates of consequences under the

headings of loss of property, loss of life and _{environmental damage.}

it _{is necessary that}

the traffic data contributed _{from task 2.11}

should contain a breakdown of ships by class so that the _{possible conséquences}

of casualties _{to the ships}

passing through' _{a study area may be,}

assessed. 4. _{Navigational Environment}

An _{assessment is}

needed of the èffect Which the _{ñavigational}

environment in a particular _{area may have on the}

casualty rates. The

navigational _environment

includes the form of _{coastlines, the}

availability of natural _{and artificial}

navigation marks, the coverage of radio aids, and

the disposition of _{lighthouses and buoys.}

Studies

have been conducted

concerning some of these features, for example the

EASAMS study of. the _{effectiveness}

of. lighthouses, 'and _{it would be} valuable if reports

on these could be 'identified and made available _to the Working Group. '

Overall, it may be that

the assessment of the navigational _environment in particulars _{areas, will}

have to be made

_{on' a 'subjective basis,}

possibly by having _{a panel, of experienced}

mariners to rate the local environment in terms of

Availability and Effectiveness of S'htp5 on-board equipment

A number Of studies have béen made of thé navigational equjpment carried aboard ships, including a very comprehensive study some years ago by MARIN. It is suggested that information on this topic should be collected a far as possible by the Working Group representatives so

that a basis is available for making an assessment of its

effectiveness.

The effectiveness of on-board navigation-aids in reducing casualty rates could be quantified by used the same expert panel as has been

suggested in section 4. Available evidençe appears to suggest that on-board equipment provision may not have a large influence on casualty rates, especially in the case of strandi.ngs, since mariners often tend to use only oneof.the sourcesof information available to them despite

the availability of others which could be

used for

cross-checki ng. . .

Traffic Regulation

The effèct Of existing traffic regulation, over and above the

universal Collision Regulations, is a matter for consideration in the

design of a problem area identifier. Factors such as traffic separation, radar surveillance and information services may clearly have an effect on the safety of navigation in a particular area. Cockroft (5) suggest that traffic separation has significant benefits but evidence of effectiveness appears to b lacking in the case of

radar surveillance services in isolation. It would be useful to

identify studies which may be used to infer quantifiable benefits arising from the introduction of radar surveillance and information or advisory services.

it may be that the effect of traffic separation schemes does not need to be taken into account as a separate component of a problem area identifier since such schemes are taken into account in the traffic flow data which forms the basis of calculating encounter rates as discussed in section 2.1.

Model for ProblemArea Identifier

The discussion in the previous sectiOns suggests that a problem area identifier could be constructed on the foliowing basis.

Collision risk = Collision probabilityx Expexted costs Stranding risk = Stranding probability x Expected costs Raw risk = Collision risk +Stranding risk

Weighted risk = Raw risk x Weighting factOrs the weighting factors may include any or all of:

Navigation environment factpr On-board equipment factor Traffic regulation factor:

8. Immediate Action

This document has dicussed the background to the development of a problem area identifier which is a crucial

part of the remit Of

Working Group - II. In order to provide a basis for subsequent discussions, a number of suggestions have been put forward as to how such an identifier should.be constructed. These suggestions have been made with the object of promoting discussion rather than pre-empting

it, and it is possible that the Working Group may finally decide to adopt a radically different concept.

-4-The PMS description Of work package 2.03.01 suggests that each

Working Group member should report on national methods which have been adopted and which are recomended for consideration in the problem area identifier, and that these reports should reach the task leader by week 32. This Would áppear to e an appropriate course of action for the Working Group to follow.

9. _References

Lewison (1980) "The estimatiOn Of collision risk in U.K. waters" Journal of Navigation 33,3.

Van der Tak and Spaans (1977) "A model for calculating a maritime risk criterion number". Journal of Navigation, 30,2.

Goodwin et al. (1982) "The. ordering of marine traffic". Marine Traffic Research Unit report, LOndon.

Giziarkis (1982) "Economic aspects o marine casualties" Journal of Navigation 35,3.

Cockröft (1978) "Statistics of Ship Collisions". Journal of Navigation 31,213.

Working Group Members fir. A. Fletcher Mr. J. Reynolds Captain E. Anderson

1k Leader

Professor J.F. Kemp School of Transport

City of London Polytechnic 100 Minories,

london EC3N i.IY

J.F. KEMP Juné 1983

APPENDIX .2

t;Ü;T 301

-

WcirFdng .1;roup Il.

- Request fór holp with PAl

study

Tk:

Fu design and constrUct a problem identifier.

1) The ahoye task was accepted as part of the programme for Working

Group II at a meeting in ROtterØm on 6th June 1983.

;',i lIu: u'.iLii.n of hie tnsk and the initial timetahle was agrtmd as

iiopo £d iii the task proposal and discussion paper presL'nted at

th6 Rotterdam meeting.

The, first part of the task workplan consista of the investigation and reporting by individual Working Group members of techniques

with which they arE' lamiliar rind which mcly contrihuto to the

contiuction of an effective and practicable problem arLa

identifier.

In accordance with the workplan, i.t Is requested that reports should be submitted to the task leader at the address below by week 32.

) In order to facilitato responses, a pro-forma is attached. This

is based on the informdtion required to construct a model on the lines sugg.'zted in the discussion paper and approved in principle by Lh Working Group. It is not expected' that äll sections of the pro-forma will be completed by all participants Where information relevant to the task is available in a form which cannot

conveñiently be recorded on the. prd-forma. reports should be. made on plain paper.

ii) It is requested that pro-formas should al,sp be distributed tO persons, other than Working Group memhèi's who. may be able to

make a useful contribution.

-1-Problem Area Identifier - Report Pro-fotma

RépOrt on techniques, mèthòdsòr results which are already aváilablé and which may be o-F use In consrLJctIpg a problem area identifier.

I. Estimation of Collision Probabilities

1.1 Method used for estimát-in collision probabilities in a given sea area.

1.2 Information requirèd for using :the rnêthbd (e.g. a knowledge of

traffic distribution)

1.3 Limitations, of the method1

1.4 Available results.

2. Estimation of

2.1 Method used for estimating stranding probabilities in a given

sea area.

.2 Information required for using the method (e.g. a knowledge of hip routes).

2.3 ' LimItatiOns of the method.

Casualty Consequenòes

3.1 Method used for estimating the consequences of casualties In a

given sea area.

3.2 Information required fàr using the method.

3.3 Limitations of the method.

3.4 Available results.

NavIgation Environment. Information concerning the effect on casualty rates of the following factors in a given area

4.1 Geographic and Hydrographic information (è.g. the character, of local coastlines and the presence of shoals)

4.2 Fixed navigation marks.

4.3 Êioating navigatiòn marks.

4.4 Radio. aid coverage.

'4.5 The ïncidence of fog.

4.6 The incidence of ice.

4.7 Strong tidal streams.

-5. Ships on-board equipm?nt

5 1 Informatioh on the carriage of navigational equipment by ships of

various òlasses.

5.2 Information On the reliability of navigational equipment.

5.3 RelatIonship between the use of radar or ARPA and the collision

rate.

5.4 Relationship between the carriage of radio navigational aids and the stranding rate.

Traffic Regulation. The effect on collision r stranding rates of the following measures in particular sea areas

6.1 Traffic separation schemes and reconTnended routes.

6.2 Radar surveillance and inlotmiation services.

7. Problém Area Identifier Model

9. References

71

Description of indices or cf'iteria already developed which cou1 be Used for identifying problem areas.

8. Other Information

8.1 Information which may contribUte to the task not covered under the

above headings.

9.1 References to reports1 papePs and bther publications which amplify

the information given in sections 1-8 (Please attach copies of the references lfthese are nòtavailable in standard

publiòations).

Please return tò ProfessorJ.F. Kemp, City of London Polytechnic, chool of Transport, 100 Minòries, London EC3N

UY

APPENDIX j

:3upp1ementsto Recommended. PAl Formats

$upplernent to Report on Task 2.4.1.

1.3-9-1983

1

introduction,

-.

This supplement propOses alternative and more

objective mêthods of

estimating

the

navigational

factors

described

in

the main report

These alternative methods are, proposed in order to

take accOunt of

comments made during the second meeting

of Working Group 2 on

12/13 September 1983.

1)

2.

Environmental Collision Factor

An environmental factor is established for each sea area based on

the

frequency of fog and ice conditiions and taking account

of the

in-creased probability of an encounter leading to a collision under such

conditions. The general methOds used by Lewison (1) for estimating a

fog and collision risk index would be adopted

The effect of traffic

separatioh would also 'be :iñcluded.

3

Qn-board ColJision Factor

'

-An on-board

collision

factor

is

estab!ished

from

the

traffic

änd

casualty data by estimating the relative collision probabilities for each

class of ship identified in the data

The on-board collision factor for

a particular area

ouId then be estimated according to the mix of ship

classes passing through that area.

4.

Shore-suppOrt Collision Factor

A shore support collision factor is established independently of any

particular sea area by asking the pane! of experts to fank the VTS

levels suggested by Glansdorp (2) in order of effectiveness. These

comprise combinations of the' following:

A: Elements

Ai - shore based activated (visual) aids

A2

vessel movement reporting system

A3 - basic surveillance

A4 - 'advanced surveillance

A5 - automated advanced surveillance

B: Degree o management

Bi

advisory management

B2 - active management

C: Participation

Cl - voluntary

' '

C2 - compulsory

'

2

The shore support collision factor for a particular area would then be

estimated

by noting

the

level

of VTS provided

in

the area and

allocating

a

factor which would calculated as the rank of the local

VTS divided by the mean rank for all areas.

References

Lewison,

G.R.G.

(1980)

"The estimation of collision

risk for

marine traffic in U.K. watérs". Journal of Navigation 33,3.

Glansdorp, C.C. (1983) "Critèria fOr Standard IdentificatiOn of

Critical areas for marine traffic". COST 301, WG 2 papaer 4532

6.6/rapn 6.

Second Supplement to Report on Task 2.4.1 21/9/83

Environmental Stranding Factor

Ah environmental stranding factor is established for each sea area

based on the opportunities for stranding In relation to the route structure. The vIsibility record and the incidence of adverse weather conditions

including ice would be taken into account. The opportunities for stranding would be estimated in ternis of the length of coastline and

th length and breadth of shoal areas along (parallel to and across)

identified routes, modifIed by a function of the distance from the

route center-lines. The effect of weather coñditions woUld be estimated from the relative frequency of strandings recorded under the three

categories of poor visibility, high winds, and ice.

On-board Stranding Fâctor

An on-board stranding factor is established fr"om the traffic and casualty data by estimating the mean relative stranding rate (per ship-mile)

for each class of ship identified in the data for the whole of European

waters. The on-board stranding factor for a particular area would then be estimated according to the local mix of ship classes passing

through, that area.

Shore-support Stran4lng Factor.

A shore-support stranding factor is Established independently of any particular sea area by a similar method as for the shore-support

collision factor. The ranking of the effectiveness of VTS levels wIth respect to strandings may pr may not be the same as that established for collisions.

APPENDIX

Part 1. Fòrm of request for contributions from Working Group 2 to the appointment of a panei. of experts, and to the design.ton of

sea-areas of suitable sIze and. character.

-2-APPENDIX 4, part 1. Form of request to WG2 concerning the

panel of' experts and the selection of. sea-areas.

COST 301 WORKING O

To: All Members of W.G. From: Or. J. F. Kemp

Following the September meeting of W.G.2, a number of actions are required in order to proceed With the design end

construction of a problem area identifier (PAl).,

At the working groúp meeting, it was agreed that modification

should be made to the general form of the PA]. as submitted.

The aimof the modification was to provide amore objective method of assessing environmental, on-board and shore support

faòtors. A suitable anendment was agreed for application to the assessment of collision rates and it was also agreed that a similar amendment for appication to the assessment àf stranding rate should be prepared by Or. Kemp and circulated

to W.G. members for approval. This proposed amendment is attached as a second supplement to the report presented at

the meeting. Acceptance of the amendment will be assumed in the absence of cornent from W.G. members.

Despite the greater objectivity of the amended PAl, there will still be some work for a pänel of experienced navigators. although they will not now be requitEd to máké judgements

concerning specific sea areas. As was suggested at the meet.-ing, it would be useful: if each W.G. member could nominate two persons tô sit on the panel. it is highly desirable that the

parel members should meet the following

criteria:-( i) They should have current or very recent experience of

navigating in a wide range of European sea areas. (ii). It shouldbé possible to coñtact them by post within

a reásonable time-scale. It would seem impracticable

and unnecessary for all the members to be available

Replies to this reqUest are alloòated PMS workpaòkage numbers

2.42,

71 tO

78.

. . .

4.. One of the requirenEnts for the óverall programe of W.G.2 is to select séà áreas of apprôpriate 5ze: ônd homogeneity so that jt Is reasonable t assign a.PA1 value to each aza. The size of these areas is likely to vàry considerably

depending upon local factors and it is therefore requested that.each W.G. member should suggest a breakdown f his own.

zèg.ibn Into sea areas The following gUide-lines are

proposed:-

-( i) Areas should be identified which comprise the

approaches to major ports

or to groups of major ports. Where. such areas are

served by a 'ITS, the area identified Should be the same as that-covered by the VTS.

( Offshorê areas may be conderably larger but should

òornprise areaS Within which the navigational factore are es consistent as possible. Also the boundaries Should be chosen so that the connecting routes to adjacent areas are kept to a minImum (see figure 1)..

Fig.l Choice of area boundarie in relation i i to rdute structure i $ i t i t I i i s $ . I complex .. . .

Prefrd

i Boundary _{i BOundary}

(iii) Natural features which impose restrictions on marIne traffic should be taken into account in designating

Sea areas. Thus the Dover Strait and the Strait of Gibraltar suggest themselves as suitable sea areas.

±

' ,

-4-(iv) Where a sea area includes ports, navigable rivers or estuaries, lt is requested that the inshore limits of the area should be defined. These should be chosen so that the area inòludes routes used by seagoing ships and for which the methods roposed for the PA1 would fon an appropriate method of analysis. An area would not,- however, be expected to include enclosed docks or other highly constrainèd waters where there are likely

t be overriding local factors influencing the

move-ment of ships.

Replies to this requst are allocated PIlS workpakage numbers 2.42, 21 tò 28.

5. It would be òpprecated if replies to the flòte could be

AP:PENDIX Li.., part 2. Définition of the

.Ó0S'301

Sea-areaS..

This lstiñg defines the cosr 301 Sea-areas lñ terms of the. coordinates, latitude and longitude, of their corners. Thngitud.es Wèst of Greenwich are givén as negative values. Theformat of the entry for each sea-area

is given in the example below.

XAMPLE.

41

aa..o SERAREA

#',l

¿r'

_24.

_-2

_-2b

_{60 DEG 24'N,}

2 DEG 20' W

-2

-20,

. . .

61 DEG

6'

N,

2 DEG 20' W

&,

0

-15.,

:*:** 61 DEG

6'

N,

O DEG 15' W

24,

0

-15,

**** 60 DEG 24' N,

O DEG 15' .W

;

24,

-2

-20,

60 DEG 24' N,

2 DEG 20' W

END OF SERAREA.

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-1-kPPENDIX 5

COST. 301 Project

Working Porgraznzne for the problem Area Ientifier

This p±ogramme comprises tasks 2.44, 2.45 and 2.451., whIch forTh the

basIs of contracts between the CIty of London Polytechnic and each

of the EEC and the UK Department of Tranport.

Task 2.44 is the basis of a sub - contíact between City of London

Polytechnic and the Pôlytechnic Of North London.

Task 2.451 deals with the estImatIon of encOunter rates between

ships in each of the COST 301 sea areas

This work was originally

ihtended to be carried out as part ô! task 2.45 but it was subsequently

realised that it would be more convenient for MAR

to undertake i.t

since the necessary inputs (including route structure an4 traffic

flows) would already be available in their computer files as a result

of their own tasks.

The estirwtioi of èncounter rates thus Íorined

the subject of a sub - contract between City of London Polytechnic

-2-(1) To choose the sea areas for each of which a problem area identifier

velue needs to be assigned.

(2) To identify and, 1f necessary,

encounter rates.

develop a technique for estimating

(3) Tb estimate the frequency of fog and poor visibility (using the same criterion as LeWison) in each f the chOsen sea areas.

(4.) To estimate the frequency of ice (using definitions compatible with

those used by Kostilainen) for each of the chosen sea areas.

To estimate the frequency of gale force winds (force 8 and above) for each of the chosen sea areas.

To appoint, On the advice of wOrking group 2 members, a panel of mariners with wide experience of navigating..in European waters.

To design a form of questionnaire for establishing ratings for the effectiveness of representative levels of shore support for shipping as

they are estimated to affect collision rates.

(6) To administer the questionnaire described in sub-task 7 and to

analyse the results in order to give quantitative estimates of the effectiveness of the existIng level of shore suppott fOr shipping as It affects collisïòn rate in éach sea area.

To design a fòrm of questionnaire for assessing the relative weightings which should be assigned to environmental factors, on-board factors and shore support factors as they effect risk Of collision.

To administer the questionnaire. described in sub-task 9 and to analyse the results in order to establish weightings WEI W0 and Ws which should be applied to the ECF, OCF and SCF respectively, subject to the condition that the sum of WEI W0 and W is unity.

To identify stranding côntours adjacent to the route segments contained in each of the sea areas.

* Lewison used three visibility leve.s:-level 1, greater than 4 km (codes 96-99) level 2, between 200m and 4 km (codes 92-95) level 3, less than 200m (codes 90,91)

COST 301 Project Task 2.45

'(12) To design a form ofquestionnaire for establishing ratings for the effectiveness of representative levels of shore support for shipping as they are estimated to affect stranding rates..

(1:3) To administer the questionnaire described in sub-task 12 oñd tb analyse the results in order to give quantitative estimates of the effect1ver'ess of the existing level df shore support for shipping as it

affects stranding rate in each, sea area.

To design a form of questionnaire for assessing the relative weightings which should be assigned to environmental factors, On-board. factors and shore support factors as they affect risk of stranding

To administer the. questionnaire described in sub-task 14 and to analyse the results in order to establish weightings XE? X0 and Xswhlch should be àppliOd tO the ESF, OSE and SSF respectively, subject to the

condition that the, sum of XED X0 and X is unity.

To receive infòrmation from MARIN (task 2.2) concerning asualty

data for European waters. Hence tó allocate numbers of collisions to each of three visibility conditions and to the presence of ice in accordance with the classifications given In appendix 2. Also to

allocate numbers of strandings to each of three visibility conditions and to the presence of high winds In accOrdance wlth the classifications given in appendix 4.

-4-To receive information from MARIN (task 2.2) concerning collisions and strandings inEuropean waters.

To receive information from MARIN concerning encounter rates for each cf the chOsen sea areas and for the whole of Europe.

To receive information from MARIN (task 2.1) cncerning the route structure and traffic distribution for each of the chosen sea areas and for the whole of Europe.

To calculate the onboard collision fabtor (OCF) for each séa area by establishing the mean rate at which encounters translate to collisions for representative ship classes and by then taking account of the mix of ship classes for each sea area. (See appendix 1).

To receive information from COLP (sub-tasks 3 and 4) concerning the incidence of fog and ice for each sea rea and hence to calculate tho environmental collision factors (ECF). (See appendix 2).

To recêive information from COLP (sub-task 8) in the form Of o quantitative estimate of the effectiveness of the existing shore support level as it is expectéd to affect collisIon rate in each sea area.

Hence to calculate the shore support collision factör (SCF) by di4ding the value allocated for a particular area by the mean value for all

areas.

To calculate the navigational collision factor (NCF) for each sea area, using the values found for ECF, OCF and SCF, and the relative

weightings of these faòtors, WES W0 and W respectively, provided by COLP

(sub-task 10). The NCF is calculated, from the expression:-NCF = WE (ECF) + W0 (OCF) + W (SCF).

To apply NCF to the encounter rates for each class of encounter in each sea area to obtain weighted encounter rates

To establish the mean ratio of collisions to weighted encounters for each class of encòunter for the whole of European waters.

To estImate the anñual collision rate for each sea area as the sum of the products o-F eaôh Of the three classes of weighted encounter rate and their respective mean ratlos, as established in sub-task 9.

COST 301 Project Task 2.44

(li) To receive from COLP (sub-task iÏ) details of the stranding contours adjacent to the route segments in each of the s'ea areas and to receive from MARIN the number of ships per unit time follöwing each route link.

1-lonce to calculate the area stranding opportunity (ASO) for each sea area

by weighting each element of route according to the raté of traffic flow

and the, distance from danger (seé appendix 3).

(12) to receive information from COLP (sub-task S) concerning the

incidence o-F winds o-F gale force and above for each sea area. Hence to calculate the environmental stranding factòr (ESF) (see append 4). (ls) To calculate the on-boérd stranding factor (OSF) for eac,h sea área by establishing the mean ratio between the number of strandings 'and the number bf ships of representative classes at risk in European waters as a whole and then by taking account of the mix o-F ship classes for each sea area, (see appendix 5).

Ti receive information from COLP (sub-task 13) in the form of a quantitative estimaté of the effectiveness of' the existing shore support level as it is expected to affect stranding rate in each sea area.

Hence to caÏculate the shore suppòrt stranding factor (SSF) by dividing the value allocated for a particular area by the mean value for all areas.

Tb calculate the navigational stranding factor (NSF) for each sea area, using the values found for ESF, OSF and SF, and the relativ9 weightings of these factors, XEI and X respect. iely, provided by

COLP (sub-task l5).*

To apply the NSF to the ASO for each sea area to obtain weighted strandIng opportunit, (WSO).

To establish the mean ratio of annual strandings to the total weighted stranding opportunity for the whole of Europear waters.

To estimate the annual stranding rate for each sea area as the product of the weighted stranding opportunity fbr thé area and the mean ratio as established in sub-task 17.

'(19) T'o stimate the mean cost of collisions and strandings in European waters from the results obtained by Giziakis with suitable updating. Hence

to calculate the cost of the expected numbers qf collisions and strandings

for each sea area.

(215) Id present the problem area identlfiBr för each sea a'ea in the altérnatIve forms of:

-A vector comprising thè two components of estimated collision rate and eimt?d stranding rate.

A monetary value which is the eectëd annual cost of collisions

7

COST 301 Pròject Task 2.451

Sub-Tasks MARIN

(1) To receive date from task 2.1 (onducted n house by MARIN)

concernIng route structure and traffic distribution in each of the sea areas identified in sub-task 2.45 ftonducted byCOLP). This to

inclUde:-The length of each rou sction.

The rate at which ships enter each roüte seòtion, broken down by cla$ of ship.

The speed distribution of ships on each route section, broken down by dass of ship.

The lateral dstribution d shIps across each route. The average domain radius.

-The mean number of ships of each class in each of the designated sea areaâ.

(2) To estimate encounter rates för each of the choseh sea areas

separately for meëtin, crossing and bvertaking classifications. Also

-8-Appendix 1 (Re. PNL sub-task 4)

calculation of Onboárd Collision Factor (OCF)

(li Ship classes aÑ.desighated 1 -. n, typiafly 1. (2) Sea areas aré designated 1 m, typically j.

The mean number of ships f class i in European waters at any one time is designated S.

The mean number of ships of' class i in sea area

o.

The total number of collisions 'in European. waters over a sample.

time period for ships of class i are designated by C1.

The Onboard Collision Factor fòr sea area j is then given

by:-'c.-.

C. T.

1

s.

?_ .1 4

(-.l- i

j

i

si

_2iCjZj

Appendix 2 (Re. PNL sub-task 5)

Calbulation

0f

Environmental Collision Facto (ECF).

= Probability of Collision per milliòn énòounters In clear

weather, without ice (>4km, codes 96-99).

PrObability of collision per million encounters in intermödiate

visibility, without ice (200m - 4krn1 codes Ó2-95).

Probability of collision per million encounters inpbor visibility without ice (<200m, codes 90,91).

P4 = PrObability of collision per million enCounters in the presence of ice which is assumed always to be accompanied by intermediate

visibilIty.

= Proportion òf time during which visibility is greater than 4km.(codes 96-99).

V2 ProportiOn of time during which visibility is between 200m and 4 1cm (codes 92-95) less the time during whIch ice i

present.

V3 = Proportion

of

time during.which visibility is less than 200m

(cOdes 90,91).

I = Proportion of time when ice is present, (assumedaIways to be

acòompaniedby intermediate visibility).

EnvIronment collision rating (ECR) is given by;-ECR = (P1V1 P2V2 P3V3 P41)

ECF = ECR

M

Where M is the mean value of ECR for all areas.

Note 1

The valûe of I is likely to be zero for mst areas, òxcept in the Baltic.

Note 2

The values

of P1, P2,

etc. may be calculated from öasualty statistics for European watérs as a whole. For P1, P2 and P3, the values used by Lewison could be adopted. COLP sub-tasks 3, 4 and 16 provide basic information..

- 1ô

-Appendix 3 (Re PNL sub-tasK 11)

Calculation of Area Stranding Opportunity (ASO)

The routes in a particular sea area are divided into elemental

lengths, typically l, in nautical miles.

Each eernental length Is nult-iplied by the numbe of Ships per day using the route of which the element is a part, thus giving the ship-miles

per dey for that element.

f

The ship-miles for an element are weighted by multiplying by th reciprocal of thé distance in nautical miles between the route centre and the nearest stranding contour. (The recipröcal of distance i

rounded off to the nearest 0.1, so that the weighting is zero where the nearest stranding contour is niere thañ 20 miles from an element). Whére a route òlemeñt has a stranding contour on each side, the weighting is made separately for each contour and the weighted route miles addéd to give a value for the stranding opportUnity presented to ships foliowihg

that route element.

The ASO for a particular sea area is calculated as thé sum o-F the weighted ship-miles fOr all the elements cgntaInéd in that. area.