• Nie Znaleziono Wyników

Predicted Consequences of Integration with the EMU for Polish Transport Enterprises-Result of Empirical Research

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "Predicted Consequences of Integration with the EMU for Polish Transport Enterprises-Result of Empirical Research"

Copied!
26
0
0

Pełen tekst

(1)

A C T A U N I V E R S I T A T I S L O D Z I E N S I S

FOLIA OECONOMICA 241, 2010

[95]

Janusz Zrobek , ElĪbieta Roszko

PREDICTED CONSEQUENCES OF INTEGRATION WITH

THE EMU FOR POLISH TRANSPORT ENTERPRISES –

RESULT OF EMPIRICAL RESEARCH

Abstract. The investment policy in transport sector concerns first of all the level of a single company as well as the broad aspect of investment outlays incurred on transport infrastructure such as railways, inland waterways, short sea shipping and also intermodal operations. In order to facilitate the required changes Polish government with the support of the European institutions established priorities, objectives, special programmes, new initiatives and financial instruments to ensure better transport service, create multimodal transport corridors giving priority to freight and high speed network for the passengers. Thus, European transport policy is a tool and a chance for development of transport in Poland. Having in mind such a prevailing conditions the accession to the EMU might have significant impact on the transport sectors, which development is an important is-sue on the international arena.

Polish accession to the Eurozone as indicated in numerous theoretical and empirical analysis will bring a lot of economic consequences. The most significant benefits are: reduction or even elimination of transaction costs, lower cost of acquiring capital which is necessary to finance investments, increase in value terms of national and foreign in-vestments and also intensification of trade exchange. Especially the last two conse-quences may result in the increase in the economic growth when considering the long-term perspective. Poland’s aspiration for a complete membership in the EU was a deci-sion of a strategic meaning, whereas the assumed membership in the Economic and Monetary Union is in principle a consequence of that first fundamental decision. Access-ing the European Union Poland undertook to carry into effect the most difficult stage of economic integration which is an obligation to accept euro and follow the directives of the common monetary policy. In the analysis of the consequences concerning Poland ac-cession to the EMU authors pay special attention to which extent it will have meaning for enterprises operating in the transport and storage sector.

In order to verify entrepreneurs’ opinions on the euro introduction in Poland the au-thors conducted empirical research based on the tool of electronic questionnaire directed to transport and storage companies by e-mail. The objective of this research was to rec-ognize attitudes of entrepreneurs of small and medium-sized companies concerning con-sequences of Poland’s accession to the EMU. The detailed purpose of this research was the analysis of the interrelations between the economic integration issues and develop-ment potential of companies, especially their pro-innovative activities, rendering their services in transport and storage.

Professor, University of Lodz, Jan Kochanowski University, Branch in Piotrkow Trybunalski.

(2)

-DQXV]=UREHN(OĪELHWD5RV]NR



7KHUHYLHZRIWKHELEOLRJUDSK\RIWKHVXEMHFWDQGUHSRUWVPDNHVXVWRFRQFHQWUDWH RQWKHIROORZLQJDVSHFWV

xGHYHORSPHQW SRWHQWLDO RI WUDQVSRUW DQG VWRUDJH FRPSDQLHV DQG WKHLU RSLQLRQ RQ 3RODQG¶VDFFHVVLRQWRWKH(08

xLQWHUQDWLRQDO RSHQQHVV RI VHUYLFH FRPSDQLHV DQG WKHLU LQWHUHVWV LQ HQWHULQJ WKH (FRQRPLFDQG0RQHWDU\8QLRQ

xSRWHQWLDO DGYDQWDJH DQG GLVDGYDQWDJHV RI LQWURGXFLQJ WKH HXURLQ 3RODQG LQ WKH RSLQLRQRIWUDQVSRUWDQGVWRUDJHFRPSDQLHV

.H\ZRUGV(FRQRPLFDQG0RQHWDU\8QLRQHXURWUDQVSRUWDQGVWRUDJHFRPSDQLHV



,1752'8&7,21



'HYHORSLQJ (XURSHDQ LQWHJUDWLRQ LV VHHQ LQ WKH WHQGHQF\ WR LPSOHPHQW FRPPRQ(XURSHDQFXUUHQF\±WKHHXUR±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¶VLQWHJUDWLRQWR WKH (8 HQWHULQJ WKH FRQGLWLRQV RI HVSHFLDOO\ LQWHQVLILHG FRPSHWLWLRQ UHTXLUHV VWUHQJWKHQLQJRIWKHPDUNHWVLWXDWLRQIRUWUDQVSRUWHQWHUSULVHV+HQFHWKHLPSRU WDQFHRIIDFWRUVFRQGXFWLYHWRWKHLUDFWLYDWLRQ

$OO SRVVLEOH VWLPXODQWV OHDGLQJ WR DFFHOHUDWLRQ DQG DFWLYDWLRQ RI WUDQVSRUW GHYHORSPHQW DUH LPSRUWDQW ,Q FRQQHFWLRQ ZLWK 3RODQG¶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¶VDFFHSWDQFHRIWKHFRPPRQFXUUHQF\±WKHHXURIRUWKHGHYHORSPHQW RI WUDQVSRUW HQWHUSULVHV LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI LQWHUDFWLRQ RI EURDGHU DVSHFWV RI LQWH JUDWLRQZLWKWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQ7KHIROORZLQJSDUWVRIWKHSDSHUZLOOGHGHGL FDWHGWRWKHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKHDFWXDOVLWXDWLRQRIWKHWUDQVSRUWVHFWRUDQGSRVVL EOHLPSDFWRIDFFHVVLRQWRWKH(08LQJHQHUDOWHUPV7KHDLPRIWKHILQDOSDUWLV WR DQDO\VH WKH RXWFRPHV RI WKH HPSLULFDO UHVHDUFK FRQGXFWHG LQ WKH VDPSOH RI WUDQVSRUWHQWHUSULVHV

(3)

3UHGLFWHG&RQVHTXHQFHVRI,QWHJUDWLRQZLWKWKH(08IRU3ROLVK7UDQVSRUW(QWHUSULVHV«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

7KHSRRUTXDOLW\RIWUDQVSRUWLQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQDQGEHWZHHQ&HQWUDODQG(DVW HUQ(XURSHFRXQWULHVDQGEHWZHHQWKHPDQGZHVWHUQ(XURSHLVRQHRIWKHPDLQ REVWDFOHVWRWKHHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWRIWKHFRXQWULHV1RWVXUSULVLQJO\WKLVLV DOVRDFDVHRI3RODQGZKHUHWKHWUDQVSRUWLQIUDVWUXFWXUHLVVWLOOTXLWHSRRU7KLV SUREOHP KDV EHHQ DGGUHVVHG E\ WKH 7UDQVSRUW ,QIUDVWUXFWXUH 1HHGV $VVHVVPHQW 7,1$ SURJUDPPHWKDWFRQFHQWUDWHVRQWUDQVSRUWLQIUDVWUXFWXUHFRUULGRUVIRUWKH QHZ PHPEHU VWDWHV 7UDQVSRUW LVVXHV DUH DOVR VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH +LJK /HYHO *URXS³1HWZRUNIRU3HDFHDQG'HYHORSPHQW´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

(4)

-DQXV]=UREHN(OĪELHWD5RV]NR



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

'HYHORSLQJ H[FKDQJH LV FRQQHFWHG ZLWK WKH LQFUHDVH RI SK\VLFDO IORZV RI JRRGVDQGVHUYLFLQJWKHP7KHWUDQVSRUWVHFWRUDOUHDG\SURGXFHVRIWKH(8 *URVV'RPHVWLF3URGXFWDQGJLYHVMREVWRPRUHWKDQPLOOLRQSHRSOH7KH(8 0HPEHU6WDWHVKDYHDWWKHLUGLVSRVDODZHOOGHYHORSHGDQGVWLOOJURZLQJQHWZRUN RIWUDQVSRUWDQGFRPPXQLFDWLRQFRQQHFWLRQV ODQGLQODQGZDWHUVHDDQGDLU DV ZHOO DV WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQ RQHV KRZHYHU EURDGHQLQJ RI PXWXDO H[FKDQJH RI JRRGVUHTXLUHVQRWRQO\WKHLUIXUWKHUTXDQWLWDWLYHJURZWKEXWDOVRLPSURYHPHQWV RITXDOLWDWLYHFKDUDFWHU

%RUGHUV GLYLGLQJ HFRQRPLHV DUH JUDGXDOO\ GLVDSSHDULQJ )RU ORJLVWLFV UH PRYDORIGLIIHUHQWEDUULHUVLQWUDGHUHVXOWLQJIURPHOLPLQDWLRQRIERUGHUFRQWUROV RUWDULIIVLQWURGXFHVGHYHORSPHQWRIWUDQVSRUWFRQQHFWLRQVLQGLVWULEXWLRQDQGDW WKHVDPHWLPHFUHDWLQJRIFHQWUDOUHORDGLQJSRLQWVRIVXLWDEOH UDQJHRIIXQFWLRQ LQJ LQFUHDVLQJ HIILFLHQF\ RI PDUNHW VXSSO\ ,W IDFLOLWDWHV LPSURYHPHQW RI HIIL FLHQF\RIVXSSOLHVLQUHVSHFWRISURGXFWLYLW\DVZHOODVORZHULQJRIFRVWVWKDQNV WRWKHLQFUHDVHRIWKHPRVWVXLWDEOHWUDQVSRUW

3URGXFWVPDQXIDFWXUHGLQRQHFRXQWU\FDQEHWUDQVSRUWHGHYHU\ZKHUHWREH SURFHVVHG 7KHQ WKH\ FDQ EH WUDQVSRUWHG DJDLQ WR WKH SODFH RI SURGXFWLRQ WR EH DVVHPEOHG DQG GLVWULEXWHG DOO RYHU WKH FRXQWU\ (YHU\ WUDQVSRUW FRQQHFWLRQ LV DPDUNHWRIVSHFLILFNLQGVRIWUDQVSRUWGHILQHGE\LWVRZQUHJXODWLRQVPHWKRGV RIUXQQLQJEXVLQHVVDVZHOODVWUDGHFKDUDFWHULVWLFV 6FKDU\6NMRWW/DUVHQ S 

'HYHORSPHQWRIORJLVWLFVHUYLFHVRQWKH(XURSHDQVFDOHLV DIDFWRURSHQLQJ ODUJH SRVVLELOLWLHV IRU HQWUHSUHQHXUV 1HZ VSDWLDO UHODWLRQV DUH DSSHDULQJ GXH WR JURZLQJSRVVLELOLWLHVRIXVLQJURDGVDQGPRGHVRIWUDQVSRUW3K\VLFDOWUDQVORFD WLRQRIJRRGVGHSHQGVWRDJUHDWH[WHQWRQURDGWUDQVSRUW7KH\VKDSHWKHDFFHVV RI VSDFH DQG LQFUHDVLQJ WKH VSHHG RI PHDQV RI WUDQVSRUW GHFUHDVHV WKH WLPH RI PRYHPHQWRISHRSOHDQGJRRGV6KULQNLQJRIWLPHVSDFHDQGGLVDSSHDULQJERU GHUV DUH FRQGXFLYH WR WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI FRRSHUDWLRQ RQ WKH ZKROH FRQWLQHQW $WWHPSWVWRFUHDWHDKRPRJHQHRXVWUDQVSRUWQHWZRUNLQ(XURSHDUHXQGHUWDNHQ

&KDQJHV LQ WKH PHWKRGV RI SURGXFWLRQ WUDQVLWLRQ IURP VWDQGDUGL]HG PDVV SURGXFWLRQ WR PDQXIDFWXULQJ RI SDUWLFXODU SURGXFWV RI JUHDW YDOXH RQ D VPDOO VFDOH UHOHDVH WKH QHHG RI FUHDWLQJ IOH[LEOH TXLFN DGMXVWHG WR LQGLYLGXDO QHHGV V\VWHPV RI WUDQVSRUW RI OLPLWHG LQ VL]H SDUFHOV DQG LQFUHDVHV IUHTXHQF\ RI FDU

(5)

3UHGLFWHG&RQVHTXHQFHVRI,QWHJUDWLRQZLWKWKH(08IRU3ROLVK7UDQVSRUW(QWHUSULVHV« 

ULDJH ±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

3RODQG ZLOO DOVR EHQHILW IURP WKH SURJUDPPHV ILQDQFHG ZLWK WKH (XURSHDQ 8QLRQVXSSRUW,QWKH\HDUV±3RODQGZLOOUHFHLYHIURPWKH2SHUDWLRQDO 3URJUDPPH³,QIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGWKH(QYLURQPHQW´ELOOLRQHXURV SOXVELOOLRQ 3RODQG¶VRZQFRQWULEXWLRQ 7KHPRQH\ZLOOEHXVHGIRULQYHVWPHQWVLQEXLOGLQJ URDGV PRWRUZD\V IDVW URDGV ULQJ URDGV UHFRQVWUXFWLRQ DQG PRGHUQL]DWLRQ RI QDWLRQDO URDGV DQG GHYHORSPHQW RI DLUSRUWV ZKHUH WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKHP DUH LQ FOXGHGLQWUDQV(XURSHDQWUDQVSRUWQHWZRUNV±7(17 .XĨPLF]S 

(6)

-DQXV]=UREHN(OĪELHWD5RV]NR



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

$WWKHPRPHQWLQ3RODQGPRUHWKDQKDOIRIWKHWRWDOVWRFNRIPRGHUQORJLV WLFV VSDFH LV ORFDWHG RXWVLGH WKH :DUVDZ DUHD 7KH RWKHU VLJQLILFDQW FRQFHQWUD WLRQV LQFOXGH .DWRZLFH 3R]QDQ DQG /RG] 0RVW UHJLRQDO ORFDWLRQV DUH IRFXVHG RQ³ELJER[´ORJLVWLFVZLWKPLQLPXPXQLWVL]HVRI±VTPPDQ\RI WKHPGRPLQDWHGE\PDMRUUHWDLOHUVZKRKDYHVHWXSQDWLRQDODQGUHJLRQDOGLVWUL EXWLRQFHQWUHV3ULPHUHQWVLQ:DUVDZKDYHULVHQWR¼VTPDQQXPGHVSLWH ULVLQJYDFDQF\ &%5LFKDUG(OOLV2FWREHU &HQWUDO5HJLRQUHSUHVHQWHGE\ /RG]DQG3LRWUNRZ7U\EXQDOVNLKDVVTPRIH[LVWLQJPRGHUQVWRFNZLWK D IXUWKHU  VT P EHLQJ FXUUHQWO\ XQGHU FRQVWUXFWLRQ 'XULQJ WKH  D WRWDO RI  VT P RI ZDUHKRXVH VSDFH KDV EHHQ OHDVHG 7KH YDFDQF\ UDWH FXUUHQWO\VWDQGVDW &%5LFKDUG(OOLV4 

7KHJURZLQJLPSRUWDQFHRIWKHVHFWRUFDQQRWEHFRQIXVHGMXVWZLWKWKHH[LV WHQFH RI WKH ORJLVWLF FHQWUHV ZKLFK DUH RI FRXUVH VLJQLILFDQW IRU WKH VHFWRU DQG FRQWULEXWH WR WKH UDWH RI HPSOR\PHQW LQ WKH DUHD RI WKHLU ORFDWLRQ ,Q RUGHU WR DQDO\VHWKHPDUNHWVLWXDWLRQRIWKLVVHFWRUVRPHQXPEHUVZKHUHSUHVHQWHGLQWKH 7DEOH7KLVWDEOHVKRZVHVWLPDWLRQRIWKHSRWHQWLDORIWKLVPDUNHWLQ3RODQGLQ WKH\HDUV±

(7)

3UHGLFWHG&RQVHTXHQFHVRI,QWHJUDWLRQZLWKWKH(08IRU3ROLVK7UDQVSRUW(QWHUSULVHV« 7DEOH7KHPDUNHWSRWHQWLDORIWKHVHFWRU³7UDQVSRUWVWRUDJHDQGFRPPXQLFDWLRQ´LQ± <HDUV 6DOHV UHYHQXHV RIWUDQV SRUWDQG VWRUDJH RISURG XFWV VHU YLFHV  FXUUHQW SULFHV  SXEOLF DQG SULYDWH VHFWRU LQELOOLRQ ]O 6DOHV UHYHQXH RISURG XFWDQG VHUYLFHV RIODQG DQG SLSHOLQH WUDQVSRUW FXUUHQW SULFHV  SXEOLF DQG SULYDWH VHFWRU LQELOOLRQ ]O 6DOHV UHYHQXH RIURDG WUDQV SRUW FXUUHQW SULFHV  SXEOLF DQG SULYDWH VHFWRU LQELOOLRQ ]O 3HUFHQW DJHVKDUH RIURDG WUDQVSRUW LQUHYH QXHVIURP VDOH '\QDP LFVRI UHYHQXHV IURP VDOH SUHYL RXV\HDU   ,QYHVWPHQW RXWOD\VRQ WUDQVSRUW VWRUDJHDQG FRPPXQLFD WLRQ±  FXUUHQW SULFHV  SXEOLFDQG SULYDWHVHFWRU LQELOOLRQ]O $YHUDJH SDLGHP SOR\PHQWLQ WUDQVSRUW VWRUDJHDQG FRPPXQLFD WLRQ SXEOLFDQG SULYDWH VHFWRU LQWKRXVDQG $YHUDJH SDLGHP SOR\PHQW LQODQGDQG SLSHOLQH WUDQVSRUW SXEOLFDQG SULYDWH VHFWRU LQWKRX VDQG                            D              D              D                                                                       6RXUFH6WDWLVWLFDO<HDUERRNRIWKH5HSXEOLFRI3RODQGIURP\HDUV&HQWUDO6WDWLV WLFDO2IILFH:DUVDZ³D´±VDOHVUHYHQXHIRUDUHQRWFRPSOHWH  

7DEOH  SUHVHQWV WKDW WKH \HDUV ± DQG  DUH FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ UHODWLYHO\KLJKG\QDPLF

RIUHYHQXHV LQFRPSDULVRQZLWKSUHYLRXV\HDU 7KHORZHVWRQHZDVLQ DIWHU3RODQG¶VDFFHVVLRQWRWKH(85HYHQXHVIURPVDOHRISURGXFWVDQGVWRUDJH LQ WUDQVSRUW DQG VWRUDJH VHFWRU LQFOXGH UHFHLSWV IRU WKH WUDQVSRUW RI JRRGV SDV VHQJHUV LQFOXGHG XUEDQ URDG WUDQVSRUW  EDJJDJH DQG PDLO UHFHLSWV IRU WUDQV VKLSSLQJIRUZDUGLQJWKHVWRUDJHDQGZDUHKRXVLQJRIIUHLJKWDQGRWKHUVHUYLFHV FRQQHFWHGZLWKWUDQVSRUWVHUYLFLQJDVZHOODVUHFHLSWVIURPWKHDFWLYLWLHVRIWUDYHO RIILFHVH[FXUVLRQJXLGHVWRXUJXLGHV

1XPEHUV IURP 7DEOH  VKRZ WKDW WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI URDG WUDQVSRUW LQ WRWDO VDOHVYDOXHLVVLJQLILFDQWO\LQFUHDVLQJ7KLVSHUFHQWDJHURVHIURPLQWR

(8)

-DQXV]=UREHN(OĪELHWD5RV]NR



 SHU FHQW LQ  +RZHYHU WKH IDFW WKDW LQ  DQG  WKH ILJXUHV DUH TXLWHVLPLODUPLJKWVHHPWKLVSHUFHQWDJHVKDUHKDVUHDFKHGWKH KLJKHVWSRVVLEOH OHYHO DQG QRZ ZH FDQ H[SHFW UDWKHU VPDOOHU FRQWULEXWLRQ RI WKH URDG WUDQVSRUW UHYHQXHVLQWKHWRWDOVDOHVUHYHQXHVRIWUDQVSRUWDQGVWRUDJHVHFWRU+RZHYHULQ WKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQFRXQWULHVWKHVKDUHRIURDGWUDQVSRUWRIJRRGVLQWRWDOWUDQV SRUWRIJRRGVLVSHUFHQWZKLOHLQ3RODQGWKLVUDWHEHFDPHPRUHWKDQSHU FHQW LQ  ,I ZH FRPSDUH WKH SHUFHQWDJH RI DFWLYH SRSXODWLRQ ZRUNLQJ LQ WUDQVSRUWDUHDLQ3RODQGZLWKLWVFRXQWHUSDUWLQ(XURSHWKHGLIIHUHQFHLVVXUSULV LQJO\KLJKSHUFHQWLQWKH(8DQGSHUFHQWLQ3RODQG7KHDERYHWDEOH VXUSULVLQJO\VKRZVWKDWDYHUDJHHPSOR\PHQWLVGHFUHDVLQJDQGHYHQWKRXJKLWLV QRW DV KLJK DV LQ WKH \HDUV ± VLQFH  LW VWDUWV WR ULVH ERWK LQ WKH VHFWRUDVZHOODVLQWKHODQGDQGSLSHOLQHWUDQVSRUW

7KH LQIUDVWUXFWXUH RI WUDQVSRUW LV WR VXSSRUW RSHUDWLRQV DQG GHPDQGV RI HQ WHUSULVHV,WVTXDOLW\DQGVWDQGDUGVVKRXOGPHHWUHTXLUHPHQWVRIRXUWLPHV+RZ HYHU LW UHTXLUHV VXSSRUW RI IDFWRUV FRQGXFLYH WR WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI WUDQVSRUW 7KH SURFHVV RI IXUWKHU FRQVROLGDWLRQ RI WKH 8QLRQ LQWR RQH KHWHURJHQHRXV HFR QRPLF ERG\ DQG LQ FDVH RI 3RODQG HVSHFLDOO\ DFFHVVLRQ WR WKH (FRQRPLF DQG 0RQHWDU\8QLRQVKRXOGEHRIEDVLFLPSRUWDQFH





32/$1',6$3352$&+,1*7+(,17(*5$7,21:,7+7+((08 

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ąJ.S  +RZHYHUWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHRSLQLRQSROOFRQGXFWHGFRXSOHRIPRQWKVEHIRUHWKH GHFODUDWLRQRI3ROLVK3ULPH0LQLVWHUVKRZVWKDWWKHPDMRULW\RIWKHUHVSRQGHQWV DERXW   EHOLHYH LQ 3ROLVK DFFHVVLRQ WR WKH (08 LQ WKH \HDUV ± (XUREDURPHWHU   ,W PHDQV WKDW WKH PRPHQW RI WKH HXUR LQWURGXFWLRQ LQ 3RODQGGHSHQGVRQWKHDFFRPSOLVKPHQWRI0DDVWULFKW7UHDW\FULWHULD1HYHUWKH OHVV WKH WUHDW\ UXOHV ELQG 3RODQG WR FRQGXFW DFWLYLWLHV DLPLQJ DW IXOILOPHQW RI FRQYHUJHQFHFULWHULDDQGILQDODFFHVVLRQWRWKHPRQHWDU\XQLRQDVVRRQDVSRVVLEOH

3RODQG¶VDVSLUDWLRQIRUDPHPEHUVKLSLQWKH(8ZDVDGHFLVLRQRIDVWUDWHJLF PHDQLQJ ZKLFK EHFDPH D IDLW DFFRPSOL LQ 0D\  ZKHUHDV WKH DVVXPHG

(9)

3UHGLFWHG&RQVHTXHQFHVRI,QWHJUDWLRQZLWKWKH(08IRU3ROLVK7UDQVSRUW(QWHUSULVHV«

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

,QRUGHUWRHYDOXDWHWKHEHQHILWVDUULYLQJIURPWKH3RODQG¶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± 

7KHPDMRULW\RIWKHVHIHDWXUHVDUHRQFHDJDLQYHULILHGLQWKHDQDO\VLVDERXW SRWHQWLDO FRQVHTXHQFHV UHODWHG WR WKH 3RODQG¶V DFFHVVLRQ WR WKH (08 DOWKRXJK LQWKLVFDVHWKHH[SHFWHGHIIHFWVDUHUDWKHUVKDSHGE\WKHQDWLRQDOHFRQRP\QRW VLQJOHVHFWRURUUHJLRQ3ROLWLFLDQVLQWKHLUVSHHFKHVFRQFHQWUDWHVPDLQO\RQKRZ EHQHILFLDO HQWHULQJ WKH FRPPRQ FXUUHQF\ DUHD ZLOO EH IRU WKH 3ROLVK HFRQRP\ .HHSLQJ LQ PLQG SHUFHLYHG FRVWV DQG EHQHILWV IURP WKH HXUR LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ GHILQLWHO\LWVKRXOGEHVWDWHGWKDWHFRQRPLFSUDFWLFHKDVVKRZQWKDWLQWURGXFWLRQ RIFRPPRQFXUUHQF\±WKHHXUR±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

(10)

-DQXV]=UREHN(OĪELHWD5RV]NR



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ĔVNLS± 

)URP WKH SHUVSHFWLYH RI D VLQJOH FRPSDQ\ LW LV QRW PHDQLQJOHVV WR XVH RQH FXUUHQF\ 7KLV VWDJH RI HFRQRPLF LQWHJUDWLRQ FRQQHFWHG ZLWK FUHDWLRQ RI FRP PRQFXUUHQF\±WKHHXURZDVVXSSRVHGWRJXDUDQWHHVWDEOHFRQGLWLRQVIRUFRP SDQLHV IXQFWLRQLQJ &RQFHUQLQJ WKH ORQJWHUP SHUVSHFWLYH WKH FKDQJH IURP WKH ]ORW\LQWRHXURZLOOGHILQLWHO\JXDUDQWHHWKHHOLPLQDWLRQRIWKHH[FKDQJHUDWHULVN DQG WKH ORZHULQJ RI WKH EDQN WUDQVIHU FRVWV ,Q PRUH JHQHUDO WHUPV XVLQJ (XUR SHDQ FXUUHQF\ FUHDWHV IRU FRPSDQLHV RULJLQDWLQJ IURP WKH (8 PHPEHU VWDWHV DSRVVLELOLW\RIUHGXFLQJFRVWVE\WKHFRVWVRIHDUOLHUH[FKDQJHRIRQHFXUUHQF\ IRU DQRWKHU 2QH KDV WR UHDOLVH WKDW FXUUHQF\ H[FKDQJH KDYH D VL]HDEOH WUDQVDF WLRQFRVWWRWKHFRPSDQLHV7RPDNHLWFOHDUWKHWUDQVDFWLRQFRVWVWRJHWKHUZLWK UHODWHG FRVWV ZHUH DVVHVVHG E\ WKH (XURSHDQ &RPPLVVLRQ RQ WKHOHYHO RI DERXW RI*'3RIWKH(8DVDZKROH 6LOYHVWUR9  +RZHYHUWKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIHQWHULQJLQWRWKH(08KDYHEURDGHULPSOLFD WLRQRQWKHZKROHHFRQRP\DQGWKLVVHHPVWREHWKHPRVWFUXFLDODVSHFWRIWKLV SURFHVV([LVWHQFHRIWKHHXURPD\PHDQUHODWLYHO\ORZHUFRVWVRIILQDQFLQJHFR QRPLF DFWLYLW\7KHILQDQFLQJPD\EHHYHQHDVLHUEHFDXVHLQWURGXFLQJWKHHXUR VKRXOGFRQWULEXWHWRWKHIRUPDWLRQRIIXOO\GHYHORSHGILQDQFLDOPDUNHWZLWKLQWKH (FRQRPLF DQG 0RQHWDU\ 8QLRQ ZKHUH LQFUHDVHG FRPSHWLWLRQ VKRXOG HQVXUH PRUHSURILWDEOHFRQGLWLRQVRIJHWWLQJILQDQFLDOPHDQVDQGORFDWLQJWKHUHILQDQFLDO VXUSOXVHV$GGLWLRQDOO\DVLJQLILFDQWEHQHILWIRUFRPSDQLHVLVWKHIDFWWKDWHVWDE OLVKLQJWKHWHUULWRU\RIRQHFXUUHQF\PDNHVLWSRVVLEOHWRHOLPLQDWHWKHVRFDOOHG FRPSHWLWLYHGHSUHFLDWLRQRIFXUUHQFLHV

$FRXQWU\¶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

(11)

3UHGLFWHG&RQVHTXHQFHVRI,QWHJUDWLRQZLWKWKH(08IRU3ROLVK7UDQVSRUW(QWHUSULVHV«

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

,Q RUGHU WR HYDOXDWH HQWUHSUHQHXUV¶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

(12)

-DQXV]=UREHN(OĪELHWD5RV]NR



&RPSDQLHVSUHVHQWLQWKHVDPSOHZHUHPDLQO\GRPHVWLFDVPXFKDV RQO\  RI FRPSDQLHV ZHUH ZLWK  IRUHLJQ FDSLWDO VKDUH WKH IROORZLQJ ZLWKWKHPDMRULW\RIIRUHLJQFDSLWDOVKDUH 

)URPWKHSRLQWRIYLHZRIWKHOHJDOIRUPGRPLQDWHGOLPLWHGOLDELOLW\FRPSD QLHV FD   DQG VROH SURSULHWRUVKLS   WKH IROORZLQJ  FRQVWLWXWH FLYLOSDUWQHUVKLS 7KHPDMRULW\RIWKHUHVHDUFKHGFRPSDQLHVVWDUWHGWKHLUIXQFWLRQLQJDIWHUWKH\HDU  DOPRVW LQFOXGLQJDOPRVWDOUHDG\DIWHU3RODQG¶VDFFHVVLRQWRWKH(8 7KHPDLQDLPRIWKLVUHVHDUFKZDVWRMXGJHHQWUHSUHQHXUVRSLQLRQVDERXW3R ODQG¶VDFFHVVLRQWRWKH(08'XHWRWKLVWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUHZDVVHQWWRWKHVDP SOHRIWUDQVSRUWDQGVWRUDJHFRPSDQLHV7KHTXHVWLRQVDVNHGKHOSHGXVWRYHULI\ WKHIROORZLQJK\SRWKHVLV +&RPSDQLHVRIJUHDWHUGHYHORSPHQWSRWHQWLDOPRUHRIWHQVXSSRUWWKH3R ODQG¶VLQWURGXFWLRQWRWKH(08 +&RPSDQLHVRIJUHDWHULQWHUQDWLRQDORSHQQHVVDUHPRUHLQWHUHVWHGLQLQ WURGXFLQJHXURLQ3RODQG

+ 3URGHYHORSPHQW FRPSDQLHV PRUH RIWHQ QRWLFH SRWHQWLDO EHQHILW WKDQ

FRVWVRILQWURGXFLQJWKHHXURLQ3RODQG 

'HYHORSPHQWSRWHQWLDORIWUDQVSRUWDQGVWRUDJHFRPSDQLHV 

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

7KHWUDQVSRUWDQGVWRUDJHFRPSDQLHVUHSUHVHQWLQDVDPSOHZHUH VLWXDWHGLQ UHJLRQVRIGLIIHUHQWGHYHORSPHQWSRWHQWLDOWKHPRVWDFWLYHO\SDUWLFLSDWHGLQWKLV UHVHDUFKFRPSDQLHVORFDWHGRQWKHDUHDRIWKHYRLYRGVKLSVZLWKDYHUDJHOHYHORI GHYHORSPHQW PDORSROVNLH OXEXVNLH NXMDZVNRSRPRUVNLH ORG]NLH ]DFKRGQLR SRPRUVNLH SRPRUVNLH  DV ZHOO DV YRLYRGVKLSV ZLWK KLJK OHYHO RI GHYHORSPHQW GROQRVODVNLH ZLHONRSROVNLH VODVNLH PD]RZLHFNLH  ± WKHUH ZHUH FD  IRU HDFKRIWKHPEXWDELWPRUHLQFDVHRIUHJLRQRIDQDYHUDJHGHYHORSPHQWOHYHO )URPWKHSRLQWRIWKHYDOXHRIWKHUHYHQXHWKHFRPSDQLHVDUHUHODWLYHO\HYHQO\ VSUHDGLQWKHVDPSOHEXWLWLVZRUWKSD\LQJDWWHQWLRQWRFDSDUWLFLSDWLRQRI ILUPVZLWKUHYHQXHUDQJH±POQ(XURDQG±POQ(XUR$ERXW RIWKHUHVHDUFKHGFRPSDQLHVUXQERWKH[SRUWDQGLPSRUWDFWLYLWLHVDOWKRXJKLWLV GLIIHUHQWLDWHGIRUFRPSDQLHVRIGLIIHUHQWVL]H PLFURFRPSDQLHV±VPDOO± PHGLXPVL]HG±ELJFRPSDQLHV± ,QFDVHRIELJFRPSDQLHV

(13)

3UHGLFWHG&RQVHTXHQFHVRI,QWHJUDWLRQZLWKWKH(08IRU3ROLVK7UDQVSRUW(QWHUSULVHV«

WKH VDPH IUHTXHQF\ FRQVWLWXWHG ILUPV WKDW ZH UXQQLQJ ERWK H[SRUW DQG LPSRUW FRPSDQLHV DV ZHOO DV WKHVH ILUP WKDW ZHUH UXQQLQJ QHLWKHU H[SRUW QRU LPSRUW DFWLYLWLHV +RZHYHU LW LV ZRUWK HPSKDVL]LQJ WKDW DOPRVW  RI WKH UHVHDUFKHG ILUPVUXQWUDQVDFWLRQVRQO\RQWKHGRPHVWLFPDUNHW UHVSHFWLYHO\RIPLFUR FRPSDQLHV  RI PHGLXPVL]HG DV DJDLQVW  RI VPDOO FRPSDQLHV ELJ FRPSDQLHV ±   7KHVH ILUP ZHUH PDLQO\ SHUIRUPLQJ LQ WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO DUHQDZHUHSUHVHQWLQRWKHU(XURSHDQFRXQWULHV



7DEOH'HYHORSPHQWSRWHQWLDORIWUDQVSRUWDQGVWRUDJHFRPSDQLHVLQ3RODQG

PLFUR VPDOO PHGLXP ELJ WRWDO

9DULDEOH 6SHFLILFDWLRQ 1 D 1 E 1 F 1 G 1 H 5HJLRQRIDORZGHYHORSPHQW OHYHO           5HJLRQRIDQDYHUDJHGHYHO RSPHQWOHYHO           /RFDWLRQ DFFRUGLQJWR GHYHORSPHQW OHYHORIWKH UHJLRQ 5HJLRQRIDKLJKGHYHORSPHQW OHYHO           WKRXVDQG           WKRXVDQG±WKRXVDQG           WKRXVDQG±POQ           POQ±POQ           POQ±POQ           !POQ           $YHUDJH DQQXDOUHYH QXHRIWKH FRPSDQ\ LQ(85  1RDQVZHU           2QO\GRPHVWLFPDUNHW RQH DGPLQLVWUDWLYHGLVWULFWDQGRU QHLJKERULQJGLVWULFWV            5HJLRQDOPDUNHW QRWPRUHWKHQWKUHHYRLYRG VKLSV            $OOWKHFRXQWU\           7KH(XUR]RQH           (XURSH QRWMXVW(8            'LIIHUHQWFRXQWULHVDOVR RXWVLGH(XURSH           0DUNHWLQJ WHUULWRU\ PDUNHW ZKHUHWKH FRXQWU\RSHU DWHVDQG RIIHUVLWV SURGXFWVDQG VHUYLFHV  1RDQVZHU           7KHFRPSDQ\UXQVQHLWKHU H[SRUWQRULPSRUWDFWLYLW\           7KHFRPSDQ\UXQVH[SRUW DFWLYLW\           7KHFRPSDQ\UXQVLPSRUW DFWLYLW\           7KHFRPSDQ\UXQVH[SRUWDQG LPSRUWDFWLYLW\           ,QWHUQDWLRQDO RSHQQHVVRI WKHFRPSDQ\ 1RDQVZHU           D  E  F  G  H   6RXUFHRZQFDOFXODWLRQVEDVHGRQWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHHPSLULFDOUHVHDUFK

(14)

-DQXV]=UREHN(OĪELHWD5RV]NR



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¶V ILQDQFLDO VLWXDWLRQ 2WKHU UHDVRQV RIWHQLQGLFDWHGE\WKHHQWUHSUHQHXUVDUHQHZSRVVLELOLWLHVRIILQDQFLQJDQGSULFH UHGXFWLRQ RI SXUFKDVHG JRRGV DQG VHUYLFHV /DFN RI QHHGV ZDV WKH PRVW RIWHQ PHQWLRQHG UHDVRQ EHKLQG D GHFUHDVH LQ LQYHVWPHQW H[SHQGLWXUH .RUQHFNL - LLQQLS± 



7DEOH,QYHVWPHQWDFWLYLWLHVFRQGXFWHGE\WUDQVSRUWDQGVWRUDJHFRPSDQLHV

PLFUR VPDOO PHGLXP ELJ WRWDO

9DULDEOH 6SHFLILFDWLRQ 1 D 1 E 1 F 1 G 1 H             ([FKDQJHRIZRUQRXWRU REVROHWH PDFKLQHV RU SURGXFWLRQDSSOLDQFHV          

,QFUHDVH RI SUHVHQW SUR GXFWLRQ FDSDFLW\ UHWDLQ LQJ WKH VDPH DVVRUWPHQW RISURGXFWLRQ           ,QFUHDVHRISUHVHQWSUR GXFWLRQFDSDFLW\LQWHQG LQJWRH[WHQGWKHDVVRUW PHQWRISURGXFWLRQ           ,QFUHDVHLQSURGXFWLYLW\ E\DXWRPDWLRQDQG PHFKDQLVDWLRQ           ,QFUHDVHLQSURGXFWLYLW\ E\LQWURGXFLQJWHFKQR ORJLFDODQGRUJDQLVD WLRQDOLQQRYDWLRQV           2WKHU           0 DLQ DLP R I LQ Y HV WPHQ W DFWLY LW \ X Q G HU WD N HQ E \ W K H FR P  S DQ \  1RDQVZHU           5HVHDUFKDQGGHYHORS PHQWDFWLYLW\           ' LU HF WL R Q R I WK H FR PS DQ \ ¶V  LQ Y HV WP HQ W DF WL Y LW \  O DV W WK UH H \ HDU V  3XUFKDVHRIUHDG\PDGH WHFKQRORJ\LQWKHIRUP RIGRFXPHQWDWLRQDQG ULJKWV           

(15)

3UHGLFWHG&RQVHTXHQFHVRI,QWHJUDWLRQZLWKWKH(08IRU3ROLVK7UDQVSRUW(QWHUSULVHV« 7DEOH FRQW              0DFKLQHVWHFKQLFDO DSSOLDQFHVWRROVDQG PHDQVRIWUDQVSRUW           %XLOGLQJVDQGFRQVWUXF WLRQV           (PSOR\HHWUDLQLQJFRQ QHFWHGZLWKLQQRYDWLYH DFWLYLW\           0DUNHWLQJUHJDUGLQJQHZ DQGPRGHUQL]HGSURGXFWV           :HGLGQRWLQFXUDQ\ LQYHVWPHQWRXWOD\V            1RDQVZHU           1RLQYHVWPHQWRXWOD\V ZHUHLQFXUUHG           WKRXVDQG           WKRXVDQG           WKRXVDQG± WKRXVDQG           WKRXVDQG±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

(16)

-DQXV]=UREHN(OĪELHWD5RV]NR



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

,QRUGHUWRJHWWKHEURDGHUSHUVSHFWLYHDERXWFRPSDQLHVGHYHORSPHQWSRWHQ WLDOZHDVNHGWKHTXHVWLRQZKHUHHQWUHSUHQHXUVKDGWRVWDWHWKHDPRXQWRIRXWOD\V LQFXUUHGLQ$VZHZHUHH[SHFWLQJWKHELJJHUWKHFRPSDQ\ZDVWKHPRUH LQYHVWPHQWV LW PDGH ±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

6LPLODU UHVXOWV ZHUH REWDLQHG LQ WKH FLWLHG UHVHDUFK FRQGXFWHG E\ RUGHU RI 3$53 ,W LV LQWHUHVWLQJ WR VWXG\ WKH LVVXH RI HQJDJHPHQW RI EXGJHW UHVRXUFHV LQFOXGLQJ WKH (XURSHDQ VWUXFWXUDO IXQGV LQ ILQDQFLQJ LQYHVWPHQW DFWLYLWLHV E\ 3ROLVK FRPSDQLHV 2QO\ ELJ FRPSDQLHV ZHUH WDNLQJ DGYDQWDJH RI WKLV IRUP RI ILQDQFLQJ  MXVWRQHVPDOOILUPFRQILUPHGDSSO\LQJIRUWKHILQDQFLDOVXS SRUWIURP(XURSHDQIXQGVRWKHUFRPSDQLHVGLGQRWXVHGWKHPDWDOO  (QWHUSUHQHXUV¶RSLQLRQRQWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIWKHHXURLQ3RODQG  $FFHVVLRQWRWKH(FRQRPLFDQG0RQHWDU\8QLRQFRPHVZLWKDORWRIPDMRU FRQVHTXHQFHV RI SROLWLFDO HFRQRPLFDO DQG VRFLDO FKDUDFWHU ,W KDV DOVR EURDG LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU VHWWLQJ XS DQG FRQGXFWLQJ HFRQRPLF DFWLYLWLHV LQ D FRXQWU\ EXW DOVRLQDQLQWHUQDWLRQDODUHQD:KDWFDQEHVHHQIURPWKHUHVHDUFKKHOGIRU1%3 1DWLRQDO%DQNRI3RODQG LQ\HDUDPRQJWKHHQWUHSUHQHXUVWKHUHDUHPRUH VXSSRUWHUV RI WKH LGHD RI LQWURGXFLQJ (XUR $ERXW KDOI RI UHVSRQGHQWV H[SHFW

(17)

3UHGLFWHG&RQVHTXHQFHVRI,QWHJUDWLRQZLWKWKH(08IRU3ROLVK7UDQVSRUW(QWHUSULVHV«

UDWKHU SRVLWLYH FRQVHTXHQFHV WKDW PD\ DULVH DIWHU SDUWLFLSDWLRQ RI 3RODQG LQ WKH (XUR]RQH 5HVXOWV RI RXU UHVHDUFK WKDW ZDV FDUULHG RXW D \HDU DIWHU WKH TXRWHG 1%3 UHVHDUFK DUH HYHQ PRUH RSWLPLVWLF ± DV PXFK DV  RI HQWUHSUHQHXUV GHILQLWHO\VXSSRUW3RODQG¶VHQWHULQJ(08DQGDQRWKHUTXLWHDJUHHVZLWKLW 2QO\RIHQWUHSUHQHXUVLVDJDLQVWLW,WVHHPVWKDWHQWUHSUHQHXUVFRQVLGHUHQ WHULQJWKH(XUR]RQHDVLQHYLWDEOHDQG±HYHQWKRXJKWKH\GRQRWVHHFKDQFHVIRU WKHPVHOYHV ±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± UDWKHUSURILWDEOH6RLQFDVHRIWKHLURZQHFRQRPLFHQWLWLHVRQO\VHHSRVL WLYHFRQVHTXHQFHV7KRVHZKRZDWFKIRUH[SHQVHVUDWKHUWKDQSURILWVRIHQWHULQJ WKH(08DUHIHZ±RYHUDOOKRZHYHU±ZKDWLVZRUWKHPSKDVL]LQJ±RI VXUYH\ UHVSRQGHQWV GRHV QRW VHH DQ\ LQIOXHQFH RQ WKH DFWLYLWLHV UXQ E\ WKHP :KDWFDOOVIRUDWWHQWLRQLVWKHORZGHILFLHQF\RIGDWDDQGDQVZHUVµ,GRQ¶WNQRZ¶ ZKLFK FDQ VSHDN IRU WKH IDFW WKDW HQWUHSUHQHXUV NQRZ WKH SUREOHP TXLWH ZHOO ± VHH )LJXUH  7KH UHVHDUFK KDV VKRZQ WKDW LQ WKH RSLQLRQ RI UHVSRQGHQWV WKHLU DFTXDLQWDQFHZLWKWKHSUREOHPFRQQHFWHGZLWKLQWURGXFLQJHXURFXUUHQF\LVYHU\ JRRGRUJRRG±RIDVNHGKDYHFKRVHQWKLVYDULDQW                              G H IL Q LW H O\ \ H V UD WK H U \ H V UD WK H U Q R G H IL Q LW H O\ Q R QR R S LQ LR Q Q R D Q V Z H U G H IL Q LW H O\ S R V LW LY H UD WK H U S R V LW LY H Q R LQ IO X H Q F H UD WK H U Q H J D WL Y H G H IL Q LW H O\ Q H J D WL Y H Q R R S LQ LR Q Q R D Q V Z H U G H IL Q LW H O\ S R V LW LY H UD WK H U S R V LW LY H Q R LQ IO X H Q F H UD WK H U Q H J D WL Y H G H IL Q LW H O\ Q H J D WL Y H Q R R S LQ LR Q Q R D Q V Z H U 'R\RXVXSSRUWLQWURGXFLQJWKH HXURLQ3RODQG ,Q\RXURSLQLRQZKDWZLOOEHWKH FRQVHTXHQFHVRILQWURGXFLQJWKHHXURWR 3ROLVKHFRQRP\ :KDWLQ\RXURSLQLRQZLOOEHWKH FRQVHTXHQFHVRILQWURGXFLQJWKHHXURIRU \RXUFRPSDQ\ )LJXUH2SLQLRQVDERXWLQWURGXFLQJWKHHXURLQ3RODQGDQGLWVFRQVHTXHQFHV 6RXUFH2ZQFDOFXODWLRQVEDVHGRQUHVXOWVREWDLQHGIRUPWKHHPSLULFDOUHVHDUFK

(18)

-DQXV]=UREHN(OĪELHWD5RV]NR



$VSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUHWKHUHVHDUFKWKHVLVEURXJKWXSLQWKHLQWURGXFWLRQ FRQILUPVLWVHOI±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

(19)

3UHGLFWHG&RQVHTXHQFHVRI,QWHJUDWLRQZLWKWKH(08IRU3ROLVK7UDQVSRUW(QWHUSULVHV« (QWUHSUHQHXUVYLHZVRQLQWURGXFLQJWKHHXUR       UHVHDUFKDQG GHYHORSPHQW DFWLYLW\ SXUFKDVHRIUHDG\ PDGHWHFKQRORJ\LQ WKHIRUPRI GRFXPHQWDWLRQDQG ULJKWV PDFKLQHVWHFKQLFDO DSSOLDQFHVWRROV DQGPHDQVRI WUDQVSRUW EXLOGLQJVDQG FRQVWUXFWLRQV HPSOR\HHWUDLQLQJ FRQQHFWHGZLWK LQQRYDWLYHDFWLYLW\ PDUNHWLQJUHJDUGLQJ QHZDQG PRGHUQL]HG SURGXFWV ODFNRILQYHVWPHQW RXWOD\V

GHILQLWHO\SRVLWLYH UDWKHUSRVLWLYH QRLQIOXHQFH UDWKHUQHJDWLYH GHILQLWHO\QHJDWLYH QRRSLQLRQ

(QWUHSUHQHXUVYLHZVRQWKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIWKHHXURIRU3ROLVKHFRQRP\       UHVHDUFKDQG GHYHORSPHQWDFWLYLW\ SXUFKDVHRIUHDG\ PDGHWHFKQRORJ\LQ WKHIRUPRI GRFXPHQWDWLRQDQG ULJKWV PDFKLQHVWHFKQLFDO DSSOLDQFHVWRROVDQG PHDQVRIWUDQVSRUW EXLOGLQJVDQG FRQVWUXFWLRQV HPSOR\HHWUDLQLQJ FRQQHFWHGZLWK LQQRYDWLYHDFWLYLW\ PDUNHWLQJUHJDUGLQJ QHZDQGPRGHUQL]HG SURGXFWV ODFNRILQYHVWPHQW RXWOD\V

GHILQLWHO\SRVLWLYH UDWKHUSRVLWLYH QRLQIOXHQFH UDWKHUQHJDWLYH GHILQLWHO\QHJDWLYH QRRSLQLRQ

  (QWUHSUHQHXUVYLHZVRQWKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIWKHHXURLQWURGXFWLRQIRUWKHIXQFWLRQLQJRI WKHLUFRPSDQLHV       UHVHDUFKDQG GHYHORSPHQWDFWLYLW\ SXUFKDVHRIUHDG\ PDGHWHFKQRORJ\LQ WKHIRUPRI GRFXPHQWDWLRQDQG ULJKWV PDFKLQHVWHFKQLFDO DSSOLDQFHVWRROVDQG PHDQVRIWUDQVSRUW EXLOGLQJVDQG FRQVWUXFWLRQV HPSOR\HHWUDLQLQJ FRQQHFWHGZLWK LQQRYDWLYHDFWLYLW\ PDUNHWLQJUHJDUGLQJ QHZDQGPRGHUQL]HG SURGXFWV ODFNRILQYHVWPHQW RXWOD\V

GHILQLWHO\SRVLWLYH UDWKHUSRVLWLYH QRLQIOXHQFH UDWKHUQHJDWLYH GHILQLWHO\QHJDWLYH QRRSLQLRQ

 )LJXUH5HODWLRQEHWZHHQWKHGLUHFWLRQVRIFRPSDQLHVLQYHVWPHQWDFWLYLW\DQGHQWUHSUHQHXUV

YLHZVRI3RODQG¶VDFFHVVLRQWRWKH(08 6RXUFH2ZQFDOFXODWLRQVEDVHGRQWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHHPSLULFDOUHVHDUFK

(20)

-DQXV]=UREHN(OĪELHWD5RV]NR  $VWKH)LJXUHVKRZVWKHGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHDSSURDFKWRWKHHXURRIFRPSDQLHV ZLWKSURLQYHVWPHQWDWWLWXGHDQGWKRVHZKLFKGRHVQRWVKRZLQYHVWPHQWDFWLYLW\DUH QRWVRDSSDUHQW%XWDVZHORRNFORVHO\DWWKHSRVLWLRQµQRFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUHV¶ZH ZLOOVHHWKDWWKHGHYHORSLQJFRPSDQLHVZKLFKLQFXULQYHVWPHQWH[SHQVHV FDWHJRU\ µQR¶IRUODFNRILQYHVWPHQWRXWOD\VRQWKHJUDSK PRUHRIWHQLQGLFDWHGWKDWWKHDF FHVVLRQ WRWKH (08 ZLOOKDYHQR LQIOXHQFH LQ JHQHUDO WKLV FRQVWLWXWHV DV PXFK DV QHDUO\RIUHVSRQGHQW2QWKHRWKHUFRPSDQLHVZLWKRXWLQYHVWPHQWDFWLYLWLHVGLG QRWVHHQHJDWLYHDVSHFWVSRVVLEO\DULVLQJIRUWKHH[FKDQJHRI3ROLVK]ORW\LQWRHXUR 1HJDWLYHRSLQLRQVRFFXUUHGEXWQRWH[FHHGLQJWKHOHYHORILQWKHVHFRPSDQLHV ZKLFK ZHUH LQYHVWLQJ LQ UHVHDUFK DQG GHYHORSPHQW SXUFKDVH RI UHDG\ PDGH WHFK QRORJ\ DQG PDUNHWLQJ UHJDUGLQJ QHZ DQG PRGHUQL]HG SURGXFWV ,Q WXUQ ZKHQ LW FRQFHUQVSRVLWLYHRSLQLRQVDERXWLPSOLFDWLRQVRI3RODQG¶VHQWHULQJWKH(XUR]RQHIRU HFRQRP\DQDSSDUHQWO\KLJKHUYDOXDWLRQJDYHWKHUHSUHVHQWDWLYHVRISURGHYHORSLQJ FRPSDQLHV±DERXWRIWKHPDFNQRZOHGJHGWKHPDVSURILWDEOH DJDLQVWOHVVWKDQ KDOILQWKHJURXSRIFRPSDQLHVZKLFKGRHVQRWLQFXUDQ\FDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUHV 

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

(21)

3UHGLFWHG&RQVHTXHQFHVRI,QWHJUDWLRQZLWKWKH(08IRU3ROLVK7UDQVSRUW(QWHUSULVHV« (QWUHSUHQHXUVYLHZVRQLQWURGXFLQJWKHHXUR       1RLQYHVWPHQWRXWOD\V ZHUHLQFXUUHG WKRXVDQG WKRXVDQG WKRXVDQG WKRXVDQG !WKRXVDQG

GHILQLWHO\SRVLWLYH UDWKHUSRVLWLYH QRLQIOXHQFH UDWKHUQHJDWLYH GHILQLWHO\QHJDWLYH  (QWUHSUHQHXUVYLHZVRQWKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIWKHHXURIRU3ROLVKHFRQRP\       1RLQYHVWPHQWRXWOD\V ZHUHLQFXUUHG WKRXVDQG WKRXVDQG WKRXVDQG WKRXVDQG !WKRXVDQG

GHILQLWHO\SRVLWLYH UDWKHUSRVLWLYH QRLQIOXHQFH UDWKHUQHJDWLYH GHILQLWHO\QHJDWLYH

(QWUHSUHQHXUVYLHZVRQWKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIWKHHXURLQWURGXFWLRQIRUWKHIXQFWLRQLQJ RIWKHLUFRPSDQLHV       1RLQYHVWPHQWRXWOD\V ZHUHLQFXUUHG WKRXVDQG WKRXVDQG WKRXVDQG WKRXVDQG !WKRXVDQG GHILQLWHO\SRVLWLYH UDWKHUSRVLWLYH QRLQIOXHQFH UDWKHUQHJDWLYH GHILQLWHO\QHJDWLYH QRRSLQLRQ

)LJXUH5HODWLRQEHWZHHQGHYHORSPHQWSRWHQWLDORIFRPSDQLHVDQGHQWUHSUHQHXUVYLHZV RI3RODQG¶VDFFHVVLRQWRWKH(08

(22)

-DQXV]=UREHN(OĪ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

GHILQLWHO\\HV UDWKHU\HV UDWKHUQR GHILQLWHO\QR QRRSLQLRQ QRDQVZHU

 )LJXUH&RQVHTXHQFHVRILQWURGXFLQJWKHHXURLQ3RODQGIRUWKHIXQFWLRQLQJRIWKHFRPSDQLHV LQUHVSRQGHQWVRSLQLRQ 6RXUFH2ZQFDOFXODWLRQVEDVHGRQWKHUHVXOWVREWDLQHGIURPWKHHPSLULFDOUHVHDUFK   

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

(23)

3UHGLFWHG&RQVHTXHQFHVRI,QWHJUDWLRQZLWKWKH(08IRU3ROLVK7UDQVSRUW(QWHUSULVHV«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

&RQFOXGLQJ HQWUHSUHQHXUV RSHUDWLQJ LQ WUDQVSRUW DQG VWRUDJH VHFWLRQ ZKR WRRNSDUWLQWKHUHVHDUFKVXSSRUWWKHLQWURGXFLQJRIHXURLQ3RODQG7KH\HVSH FLDOO\ ORRN IRU PDFURHFRQRPLF SURILWV EXW DOVR IRU WKH SURILWV IRU WKHLU RZQ FRPSDQLHV HVSHFLDOO\OLPLWDWLRQVRIWUDQVDFWLRQDOFRVWVDQGH[FKDQJHUDWHULVN  6LPXOWDQHRXVO\ LW VHHPV WKDW ZKDW LV QHHGHG GHVSLWH TXLWH JRRG ± LQ UHVSRQ GHQWV RSLQLRQ ± NQRZOHGJH DERXW HXUR LV WKH LQWHQVLILFDWLRQ RI HGXFDWLRQDO WUDLQLQJ DFWLYLWLHV HVSHFLDOO\ LQ FRQYHUVLRQ FRXUVH LQIOXHQFH RI WKH HXUR RQ WUDQVDFWLRQYDOXHSD\PHQWVHWFDQGDOVRUXOHVRIGXDOSULFHXVDJH

3ROLVKHQWUHSUHQHXUVKDYHPDQDJHGYHU\ZHOOVLQFH3RODQG¶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

(24)

-DQXV]=UREHN(OĪELHWD5RV]NR



QHXUVPXVWSUHSDUHIRULWQRZLQWURGXFLQJGHPDQGHGFKDQJHVERWKLQIXQFWLRQLQJ RIWKHFRPSDQ\DVZHOODVLQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRISURGXFWVWKDWPXVWQRWGLIIHUIURP WKH VWDQGDUGV DFFHSWHG E\ WKH SUHVHQW PHPEHUV RI WKH (XUR]RQH 1HFHVVDU\ FKDQJHVZLOOGHPDQGRIFRPSDQLHVWRLQFXUFRQVLGHUDEOHILQDQFLDORXWOD\VZLWK RXWDQ\JXDUDQWHHWKDWWKH\ZLOOSD\IRUWKHPVHOYHVDIWHULQWURGXFLQJWKHHXUR

0RGHUQLVDWLRQ ZLOO EHQHHGHG DPRQJ RWKHUV RI FRPSXWHU V\VWHPV XVHG E\ FRPSDQLHVWRNHHSDFFRXQWDQF\LQYRLFLQJDQGSUHSDULQJSD\UROOVWRPDNHWKHP FRPSDWLEOH ZLWK WKH UXOHV UHIHUULQJ WR VHWWOH DFFRXQWV LQ WKH HXUR $GGLWLRQDOO\ WKH VWDII VKRXOG EH WUDLQHG HVSHFLDOO\ JURXSV KDYLQJ D GLUHFW FRQWDFW ZLWK WKH FRQVXPHU WR HQDEOH HYHU\ HPSOR\HH WR DQVZHU FXVWRPHUV¶ TXHVWLRQ DQG WKXV SUHVHUYHJRRGLPDJHRIWKHFRPSDQ\$WWKHVDPHWLPHDFRPSDQ\ZLOOKDYHWR LQIRUP LWV SDUWQHUV IURP RXWVLGH WKH (XUR]RQH WKDW LW ZLOO VTXDUH DFFRXQWV LQ FRPPRQ(XURSHDQFXUUHQF\$OOWKHVHDFWLYLWLHVDUHFRQQHFWHGZLWKFRVWVZKLFK UHIXQGLQJLVQHYHUGLVFXVVHGE\DQ\RISROLWLFLDQV7KHUHH[LVWRIFRXUVH(XUR SHDQ IXQGV GHVLJQHG IRU DGMXVWLQJ 3ROLVK FRPSDQLHV¶ IXQFWLRQLQJ WR WKH 8QLRQ FRQGLWLRQVEXWZLWKRXWDQ\PHDQLQJIXOVXSSRUWIURPWKHJRYHUQPHQWDQGSRVVL ELOLWLHVRIWDNLQJDGYDQWDJHRIWKHPZLOOEHVHULRXVO\OLPLWHG 6XPPLQJXSSRWHQWLDOEHQHILWVDQG FRVWVRI3RODQG¶VSUHVHQFHLQWKH(XUR ]RQHLWVKRXOGEHVDLGWKDW3ROLVKFRPSDQLHVKDYHDFKDQFHWRJDLQDORWE\DF FHSWDQFHRIWKHHXUREXWDWWKHVDPHWLPHWKH\ZLOOEHPDGHWRLQFXULQYHVWPHQW RXWOD\VWRSUHSDUHIRUWKHQHZVLWXDWLRQ([SHULHQFHVRIVPDOODQGPHGLXPVL]HG FRPSDQLHVIURPOHVVGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHVVXFKDV3RUWXJDODQG6SDLQVKRZWKDW DWWKHPRPHQWRIHQWHULQJWKH(XUR]RQHLWZDVHDVLHUIRUWKHPWRFRPHLQWREHLQJ RQWKH(XURSHDQPDUNHWDQGWKHLUSURGXFWVDQGVHUYLFHVEHFDPHPRUHQRWLFHDEOH DQG DYDLODEOH 3ROLVK HQWUHSUHQHXUV VKRXOG OHDUQ IURP RWKHU FRXQWULHV¶ H[SHUL HQFHWUHDWLQJDFFHSWDQFHRIWKHHXURUDWKHUDVDQHYHQWRIVWUDWHJLFPHDQLQJWKDW ZLOOPDNHWKHPDQDO\VHWKHLUIRUPHUDFWLYLW\DQGFRQWULEXWHWR LWVLPSURYHPHQW WKDQ D WKUHDW WR IXQFWLRQLQJ RI WKHLU FRPSDQ\ 3ROLVK VPDOO DQG PHGLXPVL]HG FRPSDQLHV ZKLFK ZDQW WR DFKLHYH VXFFHVV LQ QHZ (XURSH VKRXOG WU\ WR ORZHU WKHLURZQFRVWVLQFUHDVHWKHTXDOLW\RIWKHLURIIHUDQGDOVRIRUHVHHDQGPHHWH[ SHFWDWLRQVRIWKHLUPRUHDQGPRUHGHPDQGLQJSDUWQHUVIURPWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQ   5()(5(1&(6  $GDPXV:³2FHQDNRU]\ĞFL]ZHMĞFLD3ROVNLGR8QLL(XURSHMVNLHMZDVSHNFLHZ\EUDQ\FK F]\QQLNyZ´ 5RF]QLNL 1DXNRZH W 9,, ]HV]\W  6WRZDU]\V]HQLH (NRQRPLVWyZ 5ROQLFWZD L$JUREL]QHVX &%5(2FWREHU³0DUNHW9LHZ(0($,QGXVWULDODQG/RJLVWLFV´ &%5(4³%LJ%R[3RODQG0DUNHW9LHZ´ (XUREDURPHWHUÄ,QWURGXFWLRQRIWKHHXURLQWKH1HZ0HPEHU6WDWHV´*DOOXS2UJDQL]DWLRQ VRQGDĪQUGDWHRIWKHVXUYH\0D\3XEOLVKLQJGDWH-XO\ *DMHZVNL3*DZOLNRZVND+XHFNHO.8PLĔVNL6Ä6]DQVHL]DJURĪHQLD]ZLą]DQH]SU]\MĊFLHP HXURSU]H]3ROVNĊZXMĊFLXUHJLRQDOQ\P´:DUV]DZD

(25)

3UHGLFWHG&RQVHTXHQFHVRI,QWHJUDWLRQZLWKWKH(08IRU3ROLVK7UDQVSRUW(QWHUSULVHV« .XĨPLF]0POG]áQDGURJLNROHMORWQLVNDLĞURGRZLVNRÄ*D]HWD:\ERUF]D´QU V /XWRZVNL.3UREOHP\SROLW\NLNXUVRZHMZGURG]H3ROVNLGRF]áRQNRVWZDZ8QLL(XURSHM VNLHML(XURSHMVNLHM8QLL*RVSRGDUF]R:DOXWRZHMZ(XURRG$GR=Ä%DQNL.UHG\W´1%3 3LHULHJXG-.RQFHSFMDSDQHXURSHMVNLHMVLHFLWUDQVSRUWRZHMDSURFHV\JOREDOL]DFMLLLQWHJUD

FML HXURSHMVNLHM >Z@ 3LHFKD . UHG  ,QWHJUDFMD UHJLRQDOQD ± NU\]\V\ JRVSRGDUF]H 6*+ :DUV]DZD

. 3XFKDOVND .RV]W\ GRVWRVRZDZF]H RUD] NRU]\ĞFL ] ZSURZDG]HQLD HXUR GOD VHNWRUD SU]HGVLĊ ELRUVWZQLHILQDQVRZ\FK%,6(1%3:DUV]DZD

5DSRUW QD WHPDW NRU]\ĞFL L NRV]WyZ SU]\VWąSLHQLD 3ROVNL GR VWUHI\ (XUR  UHG - %RURZVNL 1%3:DUV]DZDV

6FKDU\3%6NMRWW±/DUVHQ7=DU]ąG]DQLHJOREDOQ\PáDĔFXFKHPSRGDĪ\3:1:DUV]DZD 6LOYHVWUR 9 -QXDU\  /H FRPSWH D UHERXUV GH O¶HXUR Ä5HYXH GX 0DUFKH FRPPXQ HW GH

O¶8QLRQHXURSHHQQH´QU

6SLHNHUPDQQ.:HJHQHU07KHUROHRIWUDQVSRUWLQIUDVWUXFWXUHIRUUHJLRQDOGHYHORSPHQW LQVRXWKHDVW(XURSH³6RXWK(DVW(XURSH5HYLHZIRU/DERXUDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUV´ 6WDWLVWLFDO <HDUERRN RI WKH 5HSXEOLF RI 3RODQG IURP \HDUV  &HQWUDO 6WDWLVWLFDO 2IILFH

:DUVDZ

6]HOąJ .  ³'RĞZLDGF]HQLD QRZ\FK SDĔVWZ F]áRQNRZVNLFK 8( Z ]DNUHVLH SUDNW\F]Q\FK SU]\JRWRZDĔGRZSURZDG]HQLDHXURGRRELHJX:QLRVNLGOD3ROVNL´0LQLVWHUVWZR)LQDQVyZ :DUV]DZD   -DQXV]=UREHN(OĪELHWD5RV]NR  .216(.:(1&-(:(-ĝ&,$32/6.,'281,,:$/872:2*2632'$5&=(- 1$35=<.à$'=,(35=('6,ĉ%,2567:75$1632572:<&+  3RJáĊELDMąFDVLĊLQWHJUDFMDHXURSHMVNDSU]HMDZLDVLĊZGąĪHQLX GRREMĊFLDFRUD]QRZ\FKRE V]DUyZSU]H]8*:3RGHMPRZDQHZW\PFHOXG]LDáDQLDVąNROHMQ\PHWDSHP]DFLHĞQLDQLDZVSyá SUDF\ HXURSHMVNLHM VFDODQLD 8QLL Z MHGQROLW\ RUJDQL]P JRVSRGDUF]\ :áąF]HQLH 3ROVNL Z QXUW LQWHJUDFML PRQHWDUQHM VWZDU]D PRĪOLZRĞFL SU]\VSLHV]HQLD UR]ZRMX UyĪQ\FK VIHU G]LDáDOQRĞFL RUD] ]G\QDPL]RZDQLDXF]HVWQLFWZDQDU\QNXHXURSHMVNLP

-HVWWRRW\OHLVWRWQHGODVIHU\WUDQVSRUWXZ3ROVFHJG\ĪRGVWDMHRQD]DUyZQRSRGZ]JOĊGHP WHFKQRORJLF]Q\P MDN L RUJDQL]DF\MQ\P D ]ZáDV]F]D LQIUDVWUXNWXUDOQ\P RG VZRLFK RGSRZLHGQL NyZ Z VWDU\FKNUDMDFK XQLMQ\FK 7UDQVSRUW SRZLQLHQ X]\VNDü SHáQLHMV]\ GRVWĊS GR UR]ZRMX DE\ VSURVWDüQDVLODMąFHMVLĊU\ZDOL]DFML3U]\VWąSLHQLHGR8(ZNURF]HQLHZZDUXQNLV]F]HJyOQLH]LQ WHQV\ILNRZDQHM NRQNXUHQFML Z\PDJD Z]PRFQLHQLD SR]\FML U\QNRZHM ILUP WUDQVSRUWRZ\FK 6WąG ZDJDF]\QQLNyZVSU]\MDMąF\FKLFKDNW\ZL]DFML &HOHPRFHQ\RSLQLLSU]HGVLĊELRUVWZQDWHPDWZSURZDG]HQLDZ3ROVFHZVSyOQHMZDOXW\HXUR DXWRU]\SU]HSURZDG]LOLEDGDQLHHPSLU\F]QH]DSRPRFąHOHNWURQLF]QHJRNZHVWLRQDULXV]DUR]V\áD QHJRGURJąPDLORZąGRSU]HGVLĊELRUVWZVHNWRUDWUDQVSRUWLJRVSRGDUNDPDJD]\QRZD3U]HSURZD G]RQHEDGDQLHPLDáRXPRĪOLZLüDQDOL]ĊVWRVXQNXPDá\FKLĞUHGQLFKSU]HGVLĊELRUVWZG]LDáDMąF\FK ZZZVHNWRU]HZREHFNRQVHNZHQFMLMDNLHZ\VWąSLąQDSROVNLPU\QNXSRZHMĞFLXGR8QLL*RVSR GDUF]R:DOXWRZHM 6]F]HJyOQH]DLQWHUHVRZDQLHDXWRUyZEDGDQLDZ]EXG]LáDDQDOL]D]DOHĪQRĞFLSRPLĊG]\LQWHJUD FMąHNRQRPLF]QąDSRWHQFMDáHPUR]ZRMRZ\PSU]HGVLĊELRUVWZD]ZáDV]F]DLFKG]LDáDQLDPLSURLQ QRZDF\MQ\PL 6WXGLDOLWHUDWXURZHRUD]Z\QLNLGRW\FKF]DVRZ\FKEDGDĔVNáRQLá\GRNRQFHQWUDFMLEDGDĔHP SLU\F]Q\FKQDQDVWĊSXMąF\FKDVSHNWDFK

 5R]ZyM SU]HGVLĊELRUVWZ VHNWRUD WUDQVSRUW L JRVSRGDUND PDJD]\QRZD D RSLQLD QD WHPDW ZHMĞFLDGR8:*

(26)

-DQXV]=UREHN(OĪELHWD5RV]NR



 2WZDUWRĞüPLĊG]\QDURGRZDSU]HGVLĊELRUVWZWUDQVSRUWRZ\FKDVWRVXQHNGRZSURZDG]H QLDZVSyOQHMZDOXW\HXURZ3ROVFH

 6SRG]LHZDQH NRU]\ĞFL MDN L ]DJURĪHQLD ]ZLą]DQH ] ZSURZDG]HQLHP HXUR Z 3ROVFH ZRSLQLLSU]HGVLĊELRUVWZ

6áRZDNOXF]RZH8QLD:DOXWRZR*RVSRGDUF]DZVSyOQDZDOXWDHXURSU]HGVLĊELRUVWZDVHN

WRUDWUDQVSRUWLJRVSRGDUNDPDJD]\QRZD 

Cytaty

Powiązane dokumenty

Voor iedere risicobeperkende maatregel kan in kaart worden gebracht wat de veiligheidswinst (vermeden slachtoffers en economische schade) is en wat de kosten zijn. Dit geldt

Lekarzy chirurgów powinny przekonać oparte na  Evidence Based Medicine dowody, potwierdzające, że  ogrzewanie chorych w  okresie okołooperacyjnym zmniejsza

Według wytycznych EACS, ATV/r jest lekiem rekomendowanym zarówno u  osób dotychczas nieleczonych ARV, jak i  zmieniających leczenie z  powodu działań niepożądanych lub

7KH FKDQJHV PHQWLRQHG LQ WKH DERYH IRUP WKH VHFRQG ZDYH LQ WKH ZRUOG RI VWDQGDUGV. ZKLFK LV GULYHQ E\ D FRUSRUDWLRQ¶V DGDSWDWLRQ WR WKH FKDQJHV LQ

Inną z cnót mistrza jest jego postawa odpowiedzialności (Olbrycht 2007, s. Chodzi tutaj głównie o  psychopedagogiczną oraz moralną odpo- wiedzialność tworzenia więzi z 

Kłócą się z  doktrynami neoliberalnego ładu politycznego, z  grupami intere- sów zbiorowego egoizmu, z  dysfunkcjonalnymi instytucjami i  organami pań- stwa, wreszcie z 

Po pierwsze, podkreśla się, iż rzeczywista i pełna realizacja prawa do uczestnictwa społecznego dzieci opiera się na wprowadzeniu całej gamy warunków legislacyjnych, politycznych

WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI  \HDU $Q DQDO\VLV ZDV FRQGXFWHG WR VHH ZKHWKHU DQ\ QDWX- UDO JURXSV HPHUJHG IURP WKH LQWHUYLHZ GDWD LQ RUGHU WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH