EDINGS OF THE 15TH IIMTERNATIONAL CONFEREIMCE ON
P1996-6
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OFFSHORE MECHANICS AND ARCTIC ENGINEERING
C . GUEDES SOARES • IM. K . SHETTY E D I T E D B Y R. G . B E A W . S . ATKINS B . J . LEIRA J . E . V l N N E I V l
VOLUME II
S A F E T Y AND RELIABILITY
P R O C E E D I N G S OF T H E 1 S T H INTERNATIONAL C O N F E R E N C E ON
O F F S H O R E M E C H A N I C S A N O A R C T I C E N G I N E E R I N G
V O L U M E II
S A F E T V A N D R E L I A B I L I T Y
SPONSORED BY
The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASIVIE), USA OMC s.c.r.1.. Italy Association Italiana di Ingegneria Offshore Marina (AIQM). Italy Society of Naval Architecture of Japan [SNAJ). Japan The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers (JSME), Japan Ingeniorfoneningen i Denmark, IDA TWI (formerly The Welding Institute). UK Institution of Mechanical Engineers (IMechE). UK The Canadian Society for Mechanical Engineers (CSME). Canada Norwegian Society of Chartered Engineers (NIF), Norway American Concrete Institute (ACI), USA Energy Rubber Group, A.C.S.. USA American Society of Civil Engineers [ASCE], USA Conseil de Uaison des Assoc. de Recherche sur les Ouvrages
en Mer (CLAROM). France Chinese Society of Ocean Engineers (CSOE), China
Deutsches Komittee fur Meeresforschung und Meerestechnik, e. V. (DKMM), West Germany Institution of Engineers of Ireland. (lEI), Ireland Korean Institute of Metals (KIM). Korea Royal Flemish Engineers Association (KVIV). Belgium National Association of Corrosion Engineers (NACE), USA
Office of Science and Technology (OST). Australia Portuguese Institute of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineers, Portugal European Safety and Reliability Association (ESRA) The Petroleum Society of CIM. Canada Canadian Petroleum Association (CPA), Canda Institute of Materials (IM). UK
TOPIC? Pggsq^rtp
Probabilistic Modeling of the Environment and Response Structural Reliability
Reliability of Marine Structures Risk Assessment
P R E S E r ^ D AT
THE 1 5 T H ItvriERNATioNAL C O N F E R E N C E O N
OFFSHORE MECHANICS AND ARCTIC ENGINEERING Florence, Italy
June 16-20. 1996
PR(?ANI?6P PY
The Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering Division. ASME OMC s.c.r.1., Italy
EPITEP BY
C. Guedes Soares
Technical Univesity of Lisbon R. G. Bea
LIniversity of California, Berkeley B. J. Leira Sintef N. K. Shetty W. S. Atkins Epson. Surrey. UK J. E. Vinnem ELF Petroleum la,^. A M E R I C A N S O C I E T Y O F M E C H A N I C A L E N G I N E E R S U N I T E D E N G I N E E R I N G C E N T E R / 3 4 5 E A S T 4 7 T H S T R E E T / N E W Y O R K , N E W Y O R K 1 0 0 1 7
Statement from By-Laws: The Society shall not be responsible for statements or opinions advanced in p a p e r s . . . or printed in its publications (7.1.3)
Authorization to photocopy material for internal or personal use under circumstance riot falling within the fair use provisions of the Copyright Act is granted by A S M E to libraries and other users registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) Transactional Reporting Service provided that the base fee of $4.00 per page is paid directly to the C C C , 27 Congress Street, Salem MA 01970. Requests for special permission or bulk reproduction should be addressed to the A S M E Technical Publishing Department.
ISBN No. 0-7918-1491-2
Copyright © 1996 by
THE AMERICAN S O C I E T Y OF MECHANICAL E N G I N E E R S All Rights Reserved
FOREWORD
The Safety and Reliability S y m p o s i u m has been dealing w i t h the aspects of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering w h i c h are related t o Safety and Reliability. The difference between the t w o concepts and the corresponding methods of analysis are related to the causes of failure.
Safety is normally associated w i t h accidental situations which fall outside the normal mode of operation of structures. The hazards that threaten safety are very diversified and the quantifica-tion of their probability of occurrence is very difficult to do in an accurate fashion. The limitaquantifica-tion of the probabilities of occurrence of initiating events as well as of the consequences of accidents is achieved by safety management measures and quality assurance procedures, in addition to the decisions that are made at the design stage.
Reliability is connected w i t h the quantification of the probability failure under normal operat-ing conditions. In this case failure occurs as a result of an unexpected simultaneous occurrence of several undesired events. When the processes under consideration are k n o w n , the probabili-ty of failure reflects the level of safeprobabili-ty acceptance and failure is just the realization of an event w i t h very l o w probability of occurrence. It results f r o m the normal variability of the physical processes that affect the engineering system and therefore the methods of analysis built upon probabilistic models of the loading, response and strength w h i c h are quantified using methods of structural reliability.
The scope of this S y m p o s i u m includes all probabilistic formulations that are relevant to pre-dict the behavior or to serve as basis of design of offshore structures. Topics of typical sessions in past symposia are also found in the present one, for example, probabilistic modelling of the environment and of the response, as well as methods of structural reliability. The topics of those sessions are the building blocks f o r the assessment of the reliability of offshore structures, w h i c h is the subject of several sessions in the present year.
This year has seen an increase in participation on the topics related to fire safety, w h i c h is an area in w h i c h an interesting integration of structural reliability and risk analysis must be per-f o r m e d .
The papers in these proceedings have been refereed by a significant number of reviewers, to w h o m our appreciation is expressed.
Carlos Guedes Soares
SAFETY AND RELIABILITY SYMPOSIUM
LIST OF REVIEWERS
T. Aven B. Ayyub J. R. Bakke N. Barltrop E. Bitner-Gregersen M. A. Bonello R. Bruce D. Burns F. Casciati M. Chryssantophoulos L. Colombo R. A. Cox E. Dahle P. K. Das O. Ditlevsen M. Dogliani 0 . Eide M. Faber L. Faravelli D. Faulkner P. Frieze Y. Garbatov P. Geyskens R. Ghanem J. T. Gierlinski Y. Goda J. Gordo J. Goyet M. Grant 0 . Gudmestad M. Harlta S. Haugen S. Haver N. Hogben R. T. Hudspeth L. Huyse R. L. Iman J. J. Jensen G. Jones C. Kaminski N. C. Knowles H. Kortner J. Labeyrie B. Le Mehaute G. Lindgren I. K. Lung S. Medonos J. S. Mitchell Y. Morutsu R. Rackwitz R. C. T. Raney S. Rashed P. Rew J. B. Roberts T. Schellin W. Shao N. K. Shetty G. Sigurdsson R. Skjong B. Stahl Y. Sumi M. A. Tayfun K. Turkman C. Turner O. Tveit J . Valente J. E. Vinnem F. Vollen G. C. White P. H. Wirshing ivSAFETY AND RELIABILITY SYMPOSIUM
COMMITTEE LISTING
C. Guedes Soares, Coordinator, I.S.T., Technical University of Lisbon, Portugal M. Aral, Yokohama National University, Japan
R. Bea, University of California, USA R. A. Cox, The Coach House, U.K. M. Dogliani, RINA, Italy
M. Faber, COWl Consult, Denmark
Y. Hu, Shangai Jiao Tong University, China
M. Kaminski, Netherlands United Shipbuilding, The Netherlands
J . Labeyrie, Ifremer, France B.J. Leira, SINTEFF, Norway
M. A. Maes, University of Calgary, Canada A. Naess, Technical University of Norway, Norway R. Skjong, Det Norske Veritas Research AS, Norway N. K. Shetty, WS Atkins, UK
J . E. Vinnem, Elf Petroleum Norge AS, Norway V. M. Trbojevic, Four Elements, Ltd., UK
P R O C E E D I N G S O F T H E 15th I N T E R N A T I O N A L C O N F E R E N C E O N O F F S H O R E M E C H A N I C S A N D A R C T I C E N G I N E E R I N G
1 9 9 6 O M A E
-VOLUME l-A — OFFSHORE TECHNOLOGY
Ocean Waves Ship Dynamics
Fixed Offshore Structures Hydrodynamic Forces Structural Mechanics
Hydroelastic and Articulated Structure Tension Leg Platforms
VOLUME IV — ARCTIC/POLAR TECHNOLOGY
Arctic/Polar Technology and Development Ice Properties
Ice Engineering Applied Ice Mechanics Ice-Structure Interaction
Arctic Structures and Operations Frozen Soil Properties
Russian Arctic Development
VOLUME l-B — OFFSHORE TECHNOLOGY
Computational Hydrodynamics Floating and Moored Systems Ocean Energy Technology
Hydrodynamic Design of Offshore Structures Design and Operation of Offshore Structures Risers and Cables
VOLUME II — SAFETY AND RELIABIUTY
Probabilistic Modeling of the Environment and Response
Structural Reliability
Reliability of Marine Structures Risk Assessment
VOLUME V — PIPELINE TECHNOLOGY
Troll Pipeline Project Mongstad Pipeline Project Wall Thickness Criteria Updated Codes Deep Water Pipelining Materials Structural Integrity Hot Pipelines Geotechnics Natural Hazards Hydrodynamics Safety
VOLUME III — MATERIALS ENGINEERING VOLUME VI — SUBSEA TECHNOLOGY
Codes and Standards
Effect of Welding Parameters on Joint Properties
Undenwater Welding and Repair
Fracture Control and Integrity Assessment Static Strength of Cracked and Uncracked
Tubular Joints
Inspection and Repair of Tubular Joints Composites and Titanium for Offshore
Applications
Post-Weld Heat Treatment of Offshore Structures Fatigue Crack Growth Properties
Effect of Mismatching on Structural Integrity Properties of High Strength Steel and Weldments Fatigue Strength of Welded and Stiffened Joints
CONTENTS
PROBABILISTIC MODELLING O F THE ENVIRONMENT AND R E S P O N S E
Statistical Characteristics of the Global Wave Statistics Data and Long-Term Predictions
Akiji Shinkai and Shuntao Wan 1
Extreme Value Analysis of North Sea Storm Severity
C. Elsinghorst, P. Groeneboom, P. Jonathan, L. Smulders, and
P. H. Taylor. 9
Statistical Prediction of Long Return Period Design Values
A. Naess, H. Storii, and L E. Storm 17
Estimating the Likelihood of Weather Criteria Exceedance During Marine Operations
Philip G. Brabazon, Jack S. Hopkins, and Ova T. Gudmestad. 2 3
Multidirectional Wave Transformations on Decreasing Depth: A Nonlinear Model
L. Rebaudengo Landó, R. Gentile, and G. Scarsi. 2 9
Meteoceanographic Premises for Structural Design Purposes in the Adriatic Sea: Acquisition and Processing of Data
M. Rampolli, A. Biancardi, and G. De Filippi 4 1
Bivariate Modelling of Wave Height and Period
Graham Feld and Julian Wolfram 5 1
On the J o i n t Distribution of Wave Heights and Periods: The Role of the Spectral Bandwidth
R. German Rodriguez, R. Francisco Rubio, M. Mercedes Pacheco, and
M. Antonio Martinez 59
Distribution of Multidirectional Environmental Effects
Elzbieta M. Bitner-Gregersen 6 9
Nonlinear Effects on Long Term Distributions of Wave Induced Loads for Tankers
C. Guedes Soares and T. E. Schellin 79
A n Alternative Stochastic Representation of Drag Forces on Offshore Structures for Dynamic Analyses
A. Naess, L. J. Hpegh Krohn, A. A. Pisano 87
S T R U C T U R A L RELIABILITY
Review of Standardized Transformation Methods for Structural Reliability
S . Nakanishi and H. Nakayasu 95 Direct A p p r o x i m a t i o n of the Extreme Value Distribution of
Non-Homogeneous Gaussian Random Fields
Marc A. Maes and Karl W. Breitung 103
Problems and Solution Strategies in Reliability Updating
Roger Sindel, Stephan Gollwitzer, and
Rüdiger Rackwitz •] 11
M a t r i x Response Surfaces f o r Describing Environmental Loads
Jacques Labeyrie and Franck Schoefs 119
Safety Factor and Exceedance Probability: Some Simple Links
0istein Hagen ^27
Structural Parameter Identification for Marine Bridges
Rolf M. Larssen, Bernt J. Leira, and Svein Remseth I 3 5
Random Vibrations and Reliability of Structures Under Various Loads
Pawel Sniady .,43
Ultimate Compression Strength and Probabilistic A n a l y s i ^ o f Stiffened Plates
Yongchang Pu, P. K. Das, and D. Faulkner 151
A Study on the Degradation of Coating and Corrosion of Ship's Hull Based on the Probabilistic Approach
Norio Yamamoto and Kiyoshi Ikegami 159
Optimization of Structures Under Reliability Constraints
A. J. van Eekelen ^'
Optimisation of Pressure Vessels Under Reliability Constraints
Hjalmar T. F. Groen and Mkek L Kaminski 177
Fuzzy Reliability Analysis of Structures By Using the M e t h o d of Fuzzy Optimization
Yuren Hu and Bozhen Clien ' °'
M i n i m i z a t i o n and A p r o x i m a t e SORM Factors
K. Breitung, F. Casciati, and L. Faravelli 193
RELIABILITY OF MARINE S T R U C T U R E S
Long-Term Reliability Analysis of Ship Hulls Including Nonhnear Wave Loads
H. Ren, Y. Dai, and J. Slien
Reliability-Based Comparative Study of Classification Rules
J. S. Spencer, A. E. Mansour, H. H. Chen, and
M. D. Luckett 207 Reliability Based Design of the Primary Structure of Oil Tankers
G. Casella, M. Dogliani, and C. Guedes Soares 217 Ultimate Strength and Reliability Analysis of a Midship Transverse Frame
in an Offshore Production Ship
Xiaozhi Wang - ^ 2 5
A M e t h o d for Reliability-Based Sensitivity Analysis of Ship s Hull Structures Using Combined Plate and Frame Structure Models
Hiroo Okada, Koji Masaoka, Yoshisada l\/lurotsu, Shigeyuki Hibi, and Wataru Kiyokawa
Influence of Inspection and Repair on the Fatigue Reliability of Oil Tankers
C. Guedes Soares and Y. Garbatov 2 4 5
Reliability Based Structural Design of TLP Columns W i t h a Feedback From a Hydro-Structural Global Analysis
PratuI C. Chatter jee, Purnendu K. Das, and Douglas Faulkner 255
Life-Cycle Reliability Characteristics of M i n i m u m Structures
Robert G. Bea, Agnes Brandtzaeg, and Michael J. K. Craig 265
Reliability-Based Fatigue Analysis of M o o r i n g Lines
Kjell Larsen and Jan Mathisen ••••••• 277
Reliability Analysis of FPSO M o o r i n g Systems and the Interaction W i t h
R i s 6 r s
R. V. Ahilan, I. Cummins, R. C. Dyer, and W. D. M. Morris 287
Development of a Geotechnical and Pile Driving Database Adriatic Sea
R. Carpaneto, L. Paoletti, P. Guaita, and A. Praticó 303
Review of Jack-Up Inspection and Repair Practice
Toula Onoufriou and Alan Dixon •• ^ ^
A Reliability Based Screening Procedure f o r Platform Assessments and Requalifications
Mehrdad M. Mortazavi and Robert G. Bea l a
Reliability Fatigue Design of Welded Structures
M.-H. Herman Shen and David Lanning ••
Mean Stress Effects in Steel Weldments Subjected to Constant A m p l i t u d e Fatigue Loadings
David P. Kihl and Shahram Sarkani -^^^
RISK A S S E S S M E N T
I m p l e m e n t a t i o n of Lord Cullen's Research and Development Recommendations Following the Piper Alpha Disaster
Tariq Al-Hassan and James G. Krol 351
Unified M e t l i o d o l o g y f o r Fire Safety Assessment and Optimal Design
Navil K. Shetty, David M. Deaves, Jacek T. Gierlinski, and
l^ario Dogliani 359
Response of Structures to Fire: A Link Between Structural Analysis and Quantitative Risk Assessment
v. Saubestre, J. P. Khalfi, J.-E. Vinnem, and M. Gaboriaud 371
Reliability of an Offshore Platform Under Pool and Jet Fires
Navil K. Shetty, Jacek T. Gierlinski, Steve K. Liew, and
Brian H. Mitchell 379
Buckling Tests of A l u m i n u m Columns at Elevated Temperatures
Nina Kristin Langhelle, Ernst Eberg, Jprgen Amdahl, and
Steinar Lundberg 387
Recent Development of U.K. Legislation on Protection Against Fire and Explosion Hazards
Paolo Grillo 395
Modelling of Escalation of Initial Gas Explosions on Offshore Installations
Monika L Eknes and Torgeir Moan 401
The Use of Decision Analysis f o r Structural Risks Management
Aboubakr Maroini 413
Optimising Safety by Inherent Offshore Platform Design
D. P. Mansfield, T. A. Kletz, and T. Al-Hassan 423 Assessment of Risk in the Design Phase of an Offshore Project
Vladimir M. Trbojevic, Linda J. Bellamy, Ove T. Gudmestad,
Truls Aarum, and Wenche K. Rettedal 431
Risk Assessment of T o w i n g Operations
Frank Vollen 437
Ship-Platform Collisions: Comparison of Collision Frequency Models
Wim A. de Vries and Els M. de Wit. 451
Issues Associated With the Extreme Weather Hazard for Fixed Offshore Installations on the UK Continental Shelf
Donald Smith and Malcolm Birkinshaw 457
Safety Aspects Related t o U n m a n n e d Platforms
Geir Berge 465
Integrity Assessment of Platform Topsides in Cook Inlet, Alaska
Robert C. Visser. 473
Risk Analysis for the Dismantling and Removal of an Offshore Platform
Vladimir M. Trbojevic, Linda J. Bellamy, and Wilfried Vervest 4 8 3
Validation of Egress S i m u l a t i o n Programs
Helge Soma and K. Harald Drager. 487
Computer Simulation f o r Optimisation of Offshore Platform Evacuation
Helge Soma, K. Harald Drager, and Pal Bj0rdal 495
Defect Characterisation and Classification for the ICON Inspection Reliability Trials
W. D. Dover and J. Rudlin 503
Performance Trends for POD as Measured in the ICON Project
J. Rudlin and W. D. Dover 509
Author Index ^ . j g
