• Nie Znaleziono Wyników

Green on-site power generation

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "Green on-site power generation"

Copied!
15
0
0

Pełen tekst

(1)

Delft University of Technology

Green on-site power generation

environmental considerations on small-scale biomass gasifier fuel-cell CHP systems for

the residential sector

Götz, Thomas ; Saurat, Mathieu ; Tholen, Lena ; Adisorn, Thomas ; Obernberger, Ingwald ; Brunner, Thomas ; Kerschbaum, Michael ; Purushothaman Vellayani, Aravind; Makkus, Robert ; Megel, Stefan

Publication date 2017

Document Version Final published version Published in

Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Energy Efficiency in Domestic Appliances and Lighting (EEDAL '17)

Citation (APA)

Götz, T., Saurat, M., Tholen, L., Adisorn, T., Obernberger, I., Brunner, T., Kerschbaum, M., Purushothaman Vellayani, A., Makkus, R., Megel, S., Hauth, M., & Zappa, W. (2017). Green on-site power generation: environmental considerations on small-scale biomass gasifier fuel-cell CHP systems for the residential sector. In P. Bertoldi (Ed.), Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Energy Efficiency in Domestic Appliances and Lighting (EEDAL '17) (Vol. 3, pp. 909-921). (EUR ; No. 28961 EN). Publications Office of the European Union.

Important note

To cite this publication, please use the final published version (if applicable). Please check the document version above.

Copyright

Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download, forward or distribute the text or part of it, without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license such as Creative Commons. Takedown policy

Please contact us and provide details if you believe this document breaches copyrights. We will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.

This work is downloaded from Delft University of Technology.

(2)

Thomas Götz, Mathieu Saurat, Lena Tholen, Thomas Adisorn,

Ingwald Obernberger, Thomas Brunner, Michael Kerschbaum,

P.V. Aravind, Robert Makkus, Stefan Megel, Martin Hauth,

William Zappa

Green on-site

power generation

Environmental considerations on

small-scale biomass gasifier fuel-cell CHP systems

for the residential sector

Originally published in:

P. Bertoldi, Proceedings of the 9th

interna-tional conference on Energy Efficiency in

Domestic Appliances and Lighting (EEDAL

'17): Part III, EUR 28961 EN, Publications

Office of the European Union,

Luxem-bourg, 2017, ISBN 978-92-79-77174-3,

doi:10.2760/113534, JRC109209

(3)



*UHHQRQVLWHSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQ(QYLURQPHQWDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQVRQ

VPDOOVFDOHELRPDVVJDVLILHUIXHOFHOO&+3V\VWHPVIRUWKH

UHVLGHQWLDOVHFWRU



7KRPDV*|W]



0DWKLHX6DXUDW



/HQD7KROHQ



7KRPDV$GLVRUQ





,QJZDOG2EHUQEHUJHU



7KRPDV%UXQQHU



0LFKDHO.HUVFKEDXP



39$UDYLQG





5REHUW0DNNXV



6WHIDQ0HJHO



0DUWLQ+DXWK



:LOOLDP=DSSD





 :XSSHUWDO,QVWLWXWHIRU&OLPDWH(QYLURQPHQWDQG(QHUJ\*HUPDQ\

 %,26%,2(1(5*,(6<67(0(*PE+*UD]$XVWULD

 :LQGKDJHU=HQWUDOKHL]XQJ7HFKQLN*PE+6HHNLUFKHQ$XVWULD

 'HOIW8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\'HOIWWKH1HWKHUODQGV

 +\*HDU%9$UQKHPWKH1HWKHUODQGV

 )UDXQKRIHU,.76'UHVGHQ*HUPDQ\

 $9//LVW*PE+*UD]$XVWULD

 8WUHFKW8QLYHUVLW\8WUHFKWWKH1HWKHUODQGV



$EVWUDFW

&RQWHPSRUDU\ FRPELQHG KHDW DQG SRZHU &+3  V\VWHPV DUH RIWHQ EDVHG RQ IRVVLO IXHOV VXFK DV QDWXUDO JDV RU KHDWLQJ RLO 7KHUHE\ VPDOOVFDOH FRJHQHUDWLRQ V\VWHPV DUH LQWHQGHG WR UHSODFH RU FRPSOHPHQW WUDGLWLRQDO KHDWLQJ HTXLSPHQW LQ UHVLGHQWLDO EXLOGLQJV ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR VSDFH KHDWLQJ RU GRPHVWLF KRW ZDWHU VXSSO\ HOHFWULFLW\ LV JHQHUDWHG IRU WKH RZQ FRQVXPSWLRQ RI WKH EXLOGLQJ RU WR EH VROGWRWKHHOHFWULFSRZHUJULG

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

,Q WKLV FRQWH[W WKLV SDSHU SUHVHQWV SUHOLPLQDU\ LPSDFW DVVHVVPHQW UHVXOWV DQG PRVW UHFHQW HQYLURQPHQWDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQVIURPWKH(8+RUL]RQSURMHFWµ)OH[L)XHO62)&¶ *UDQW$JUHHPHQW Qƒ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µQHW¶ HPLVVLRQV RI VXFK RQVLWH JHQHUDWLRQ LQVWDOODWLRQV PD\ EH YLUWXDOO\ ]HUR RU HYHQ QHJDWLYH$GGLWLRQDOO\WKLVSDSHUVFRSHVFHQWUDOUHJXODWRU\LQVWUXPHQWVIRUVPDOOVFDOH&+3V\VWHPV LQWKH(8WRGLVFXVVZD\VWRLPSURYHWKHIUDPHZRUNIRUV\VWHPGHSOR\PHQW

(4)



,QWURGXFWLRQ

7UDGLWLRQDOO\ FRPELQHG KHDW DQG SRZHU &+3  V\VWHPV DUH RIWHQ EDVHG RQ IRVVLO IXHOV VXFK DV QDWXUDO JDV RU KHDWLQJ RLO EXW WKH WUDQVLWLRQ WR HIILFLHQW HQHUJ\ V\VWHPV XVLQJ UHQHZDEOH HQHUJ\ VRXUFHV LV XUJHQWO\ QHHGHG LQ SDUWLFXODU LQ WKH KHDWLQJ VHFWRU WR DFKLHYH ZRUOGZLGH VXVWDLQDELOLW\ WDUJHWV%DVHGRQ(8FODVVLILFDWLRQVFRPEXVWLRQSODQWVDUHUDWHG!0:WKIRUODUJHV\VWHPVDQG

0:WKIRUVPDOODSSOLDQFHV UHVLGHQWLDOKHDWHUVDQGERLOHUV ZLWKPHGLXPFRPEXVWLRQSODQWV 0&3 LQ

EHWZHHQ 7RGD\ &+3 LV VWLOO PDLQO\ UHDOLVHG LQ WKH PHGLXP DQG ODUJHVFDOH VHFWRU HVSHFLDOO\ IRU UHQHZDEOH ELRPDVV IXHOV +RZHYHU WKH DSSOLHG WUDGLWLRQDO WHFKQRORJLHV KDYH UHVWULFWLRQV UHJDUGLQJ IXHOIOH[LELOLW\DQGHOHFWULFHIILFLHQFLHV

,Q FRQWUDVW GHGLFDWHG ELRPDVV LQWHJUDWHG JDVLILFDWLRQ IXHO FHOO V\VWHPV %,*)&V  DUH GHHPHG WR DFKLHYHPXFKKLJKHUHIILFLHQF\OHYHOV>@7KHUHE\DGDSWDWLRQWRVPDOOVFDOHJHQHUDWLRQDSSOLFDWLRQV EDVHG RQ UHQHZDEOH HQHUJ\ VRXUFHV VXFK DV VROLG ELRPDVV  LV VSHFLILFDOO\ FKDOOHQJLQJ EHFDXVH RI IHHGVWRFNFRPSRVLWLRQVDQGKHDWLQWHJUDWLRQ6PDOOVFDOHFRJHQHUDWLRQV\VWHPVDUHWKHUHE\W\SLFDOO\ LQWHQGHGWRUHSODFHRUFRPSOHPHQWWUDGLWLRQDOKHDWLQJHTXLSPHQWLQUHVLGHQWLDOEXLOGLQJV,QDGGLWLRQWR VSDFHKHDWLQJRUGRPHVWLFKRWZDWHUVXSSO\DSDUWRIWKHIXHOHQHUJ\LVXVHGWRJHQHUDWHHOHFWULFLW\IRU WKHRZQFRQVXPSWLRQRIWKHEXLOGLQJRUWREHVROGWRWKHHOHFWULFSRZHUJULG,QDGGLWLRQWRHIILFLHQF\ SRWHQWLDOV%,*)&VDOVRRIIHUIXUWKHULPSRUWDQWFREHQHILWVVXFKDVVHFXULW\RIHQHUJ\VXSSO\DVZHOO DV HPLVVLRQ UHGXFWLRQV LQ WHUPV RI JUHHQKRXVH JDVHV *+*  RU DLU SROOXWDQWV ,Q SDUWLFXODU VROLG UHVLGXDO ELRPDVV DV UHQHZDEOH ORFDO HQHUJ\ VRXUFH LV DOVR EHVW VXLWHG IRU GHFHQWUDOLVHG RSHUDWLRQV VXFKDVPLFURJULGVWRDYRLGLQHIILFLHQWORQJKDXOIXHOWUDQVSRUWVWRFHQWUDOL]HGSRZHUSODQWV

$JDLQVWWKLVEDFNJURXQGWKH(8+RUL]RQSURMHFWµ)OH[L)XHO62)&¶ *UDQW$JUHHPHQWQƒ VHHDOVRKWWSIOH[LIXHOVRIFHX DLPVDWWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIDQHZLQQRYDWLYHKLJKO\HIILFLHQWDQGIXHO IOH[LEOH ELRPDVV &+3 WHFKQRORJ\ LQWHJUDWLQJ D VPDOOVFDOH IL[HGEHG XSGUDIW JDVLILHU D QRYHO DQG FRPSDFWJDVFOHDQLQJFRQFHSW FRYHULQJSDUWLFOHSUHFLSLWDWLRQUHPRYDORI+&O+6DQGRWKHUVXOSKXU

FRPSRXQGVDVZHOODVWDUFUDFNLQJ DQGDKLJKWHPSHUDWXUHVROLGR[LGHIXHOFHOO 62)& IRUHOHFWULFLW\ JHQHUDWLRQ7KHWHFKQRORJ\VKDOOEHGHYHORSHGIRUWKHUHVLGHQWLDOVHFWRUZLWKDFDSDFLW\UDQJHRIWR  N: IXHO SRZHU  DQG VKDOO DOORZ WKH XWLOLVDWLRQ RI FRVW HIILFLHQW UHVLGXDO ELRPDVV IHHGVWRFNV WR HQODUJH WKH DSSOLFDEOH IXHO VSHFWUXP 2YHUDOO WKH QHZ V\VWHP VKDOO DFKLHYH DQ HTXDO]HUR HPLVVLRQ RSHUDWLRQ UHJDUGLQJ &2 2*& 12[ +&O 62[ 3$+ DQG 30 DQG GXH WR WKH XWLOLVDWLRQ RI ELRPDVV

DOVRUHJDUGLQJ&2 LQFRPELQDWLRQZLWKKLJKHOHFWULFDQGRYHUDOOHIILFLHQFLHV$WZRSKDVHDSSURDFK

IRU WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI WHVWLQJ SODQWV WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI WHVW UXQV DQG DFFRPSDQ\LQJ DVVHVVPHQWV VKDOOUHVXOWLQDVLJQLILFDQWLQFUHDVHRIWKHWHFKQRORJ\SHUIRUPDQFHRIVPDOOVFDOHELRPDVVEDVHG&+3 V\VWHPV

7KHSUHVHQWHGSDSHUSURYLGHVDQRYHUYLHZRIHQYLURQPHQWDODVSHFWVUHOHYDQWIRUELRPDVVJDVLILHUIXHO FHOOV\VWHPVLQJHQHUDODQGSUHVHQWVDOVRDJHQHULFDSSURDFKIRUDVVHVVLQJUHODWHGLPSDFWV$OOJLYHQ UHVXOWV DUH EDVHG RQ WKH ZRUN SHUIRUPHG LQ WKH ILUVW SKDVH RI WKH µ)OH[L)XHO62)&¶ µ))62)&¶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

(QYLURQPHQWDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQVRQVPDOOVFDOHELRPDVV&+3

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µ)OH[L)XHO62)&¶DUHSUHVHQWHGEDVHGRQWKHGDWDLQSXWVE\DOOSURMHFWSDUWQHUV

(5)

 $VVHVVLQJHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWV

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Æ6WHS'HILQH2EMHFWLYHVÆ6WHS'HYHORS2SWLRQVÆ 6WHS,PSDFW$QDO\VLVÆ6WHS&RPSDULVRQRI2SWLRQV 6WHS3UREOHPGHILQLWLRQ±(QHUJ\DQGUHVRXUFHHIILFLHQF\ %HVLGHVJHQHUDOREMHFWLYHVRIZRUOGZLGHVXVWDLQDELOLW\WDUJHWVVXFKDVPLWLJDWLQJJOREDOZDUPLQJE\ UHGXFLQJJUHHQKRXVHJDVDQGDLUSROOXWDQWHPLVVLRQVDVZHOODVWKHGHSHQGHQFHRQIRVVLOIXHOVDOVR RWKHUWHFKQRORJ\VSHFLILFDVSHFWVKDYHWREHWDFNOHG)RU&+3XVLQJUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\VRXUFHVWKLV DSSOLHVHVSHFLDOO\DOVRIRUFRQVWUDLQVUHJDUGLQJWKHDYDLODELOLW\RIELRPDVVIHHGVWRFNV

*OREDO WUHQGV FRQFHUQLQJ SRSXODWLRQ FURS \LHOGV GLHW FOLPDWH FKDQJH HWF XVXDOO\ VXJJHVW DQ H[SDQVLRQ RI FURSODQG ± LI DW DOO ±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

$YDLODELOLW\RIZDWHULVDQRWKHUOLPLWLQJIDFWRUIRUJURZLQJELRPDVVIHHGVWRFNVERWKLQWHUPVRITXDOLW\ DQG TXDQWLW\ DV DJULFXOWXUH DOUHDG\ XVHV DERXW  RI IUHVK ZDWHU JOREDOO\ >@ $Q\ H[SDQVLRQ RI LQWHQVLYH HQHUJ\ FURS FXOWLYDWLRQ ZRXOG EH DGGLQJ WR WKLV ,Q SDUWLFXODU LQ ZDWHU VFDUFH UHJLRQV WKLV PD\OHDGWRDQRWKHUIRUPRIFRPSHWLWLRQZLWKIRRGSURGXFWLRQ7KHUHE\H[WUHPHZHDWKHUHYHQWVGXH WRFOLPDWHFKDQJHPLJKWIXUWKHULQFUHDVHXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWHUPVRIDYDLODEOHZDWHUUHVRXUFHV

7KHDERYHPHQWLRQHGH[HPSODU\HQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVUHODWHGWRWKHµZDWHUHQHUJ\DQGIRRGQH[XV¶ DSSO\WRPDQ\µILUVWJHQHUDWLRQELRIXHOV¶+RZHYHUWKHUHDUHDOVRQHZSDWKZD\VIRUPRUHVXVWDLQDEOH SURGXFWLRQ DQG DOWHUQDWLYH XVH RI ELRPDVV IRU HQHUJ\ SXUSRVHV WKDW FDQ KHOS WR UHGXFH SRWHQWLDO SUHVVXUHVRQWKHHQYLURQPHQW

6WHS'HILQHREMHFWLYHV±(IILFLHQF\ILUVW

2YHUDOO GHPDQG VLGH HQHUJ\ HIILFLHQF\ VKRXOG SURYLGH WKH µILUVW IXHO¶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

7KHUHE\FRPSUHKHQVLYHIXUWKHUUHVHDUFKLVVWLOOUHTXLUHGHVSHFLDOO\FRQFHUQLQJWKHSURSHUEDODQFHRI UHVLGXHVUHPDLQLQJRQVLWHIRUVRLOIHUWLOLW\DQGUHPRYDOIRUHQHUJ\SURYLVLRQDVZHOODVZLWKUHJDUGWR QXWULHQW UHF\FOLQJ HJ E\ DVK XWLOL]DWLRQ 1HYHUWKHOHVV SURPLVLQJ DSSURDFKHV H[LVW RU DUH XQGHU

(6)



GHYHORSPHQWWRPD[LPL]HEHQHILWVDQGWRPLQLPLVHQHJDWLYHHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWV,QWKLVFRQWH[WWKH SUHVHQWHGVSHFLILFUHVXOWVIURPWKHµ)OH[L)XHO62)&¶SURMHFWFRQFHQWUDWHRQWKHSULQFLSOHVIRUHIILFLHQW XVHRIVROLGELRPDVVIXHOVIURPDJULFXOWXUDORUIRUHVWU\UHVLGXHVLQVPDOOVFDOH&+3V\VWHPVEDVHGRQ %,*)&V GXULQJ WKH RSHUDWLRQ SKDVH ZKHQ HQHUJ\ HIILFLHQF\ DQG SROOXWLRQ FRQWURO GXULQJ HQHUJ\ UHFRYHU\KDVWREHDGGUHVVHG

6WHS'HYHORSRSWLRQV±6\VWHPDSSOLFDWLRQFDVHV

%HIRUHVWDUWLQJDQLPSDFWDVVHVVPHQWIUDPHZRUNFRQGLWLRQVKDYHWREHHVWDEOLVKHGLQSDUWLFXODUWKH JHRJUDSKLFDOVFRSH HJWKH(8 DQGWLPHKRUL]RQ HJ RIWKHDQDO\VLV)XUWKHUPRUHEDVHG RQPDUNHWVWXGLHVDQGWHFKQRHFRQRPLFDQDO\VHVWKHPRVWSURPLVLQJILHOGVRIDSSOLFDWLRQIRUWKHQHZ WHFKQRORJ\ QHHG WR EH GHILQHG )RU WKH DQDO\VHG V\VWHPV GHFHQWUDOLVHG RSHUDWLRQ FORVH WR IXHO IHHGVWRFNV LV HQYLVDJHG WR DYRLG LQFUHDVLQJ OHYHOV RI WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ RI ELRPDVV ZLWK PDUNHW SHQHWUDWLRQ ZKLFK FRXOG RWKHUZLVH RIIVHW HPLVVLRQV UHGXFWLRQ EHQHILWV $FFRUGLQJO\ EDVHG RQ WKH SUHOLPLQDU\UHVXOWVRIWKHµ)OH[L)XHO62)&¶SURMHFWWKHIROORZLQJVSHFLILFDSSOLFDWLRQFDVHVKDYHEHHQ LGHQWLILHGIRUWKH(XURSHDQPDUNHW ZLWKIRFXVRQ&HQWUDO(XURSH 

• $SSOLFDWLRQ$LVDV\VWHPZLWKDERXWN:WKQRPLQDOKHDWRXWSXWDQGN:HOHOHFWULFSRZHU

DW QRPLQDO ORDG WR EH XVHG W\SLFDOO\ IRU EDVH ORDG KHDW DQG HOHFWULFLW\ SURGXFWLRQ IRU VPDOO GLVWULFW KHDWLQJ QHWZRUNV PLFUR JULGV  ,W FDQ EH DOVR DSSOLHG HJ IRU KRWHOV KRVSLWDOV RU HQWHUSULVHVZLWKSHUPDQHQWHOHFWULFLW\DQGKHDWGHPDQGRYHUWKHZKROH\HDU,WXVHVEXONDJUR SHOOHWV DV QRQZRRG\ ELRPDVV VROLG IXHO DQG LV FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\  HIIHFWLYH IXOO ORDG KRXUVDQQXDOO\IRUHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQ



• $SSOLFDWLRQ%LVDV\VWHPZLWKDERXWN:WKQRPLQDOKHDWRXWSXWDQGN:HOHOHFWULFSRZHUDW

QRPLQDO ORDG WR EH XVHG W\SLFDOO\ IRU VSDFH DQG SURFHVV KHDWLQJ DV ZHOO DV GRPHVWLF KRW ZDWHUVXSSO\IRUIDUPVODUJHDSDUWPHQWEXLOGLQJVSXEOLFEXLOGLQJVVPDOOHQWHUSULVHVRUPLFUR JULGV$VELRPDVVVROLGIXHOWUDGLWLRQDOZRRGFKLSVDUHXVHG7KHV\VWHPLVRSWLPL]HGIRUKHDW FRQWUROOHG RSHUDWLRQ HOHFWULFLW\ DQG KHDW SURGXFWLRQ LQ ZLQWHU DQG WUDQVLWLRQDO SHULRG KHDW VXSSO\ZLWKRXWHOHFWULFLW\SURGXFWLRQLQVXPPHU ,WLVFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\HIIHFWLYHIXOOORDG KRXUVDQQXDOO\IRUWKHHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQSDUW



• $SSOLFDWLRQ&LVDV\VWHPZLWKDERXWN:WKQRPLQDOKHDWRXWSXWDQGN:HOHOHFWULFSRZHUDW

QRPLQDO ORDG WR EH XVHG W\SLFDOO\ IRU KHDW DQG GRPHVWLF KRW ZDWHU '+:  VXSSO\ IRU UHVLGHQWLDO EXLOGLQJV VXFK DV PXOWL IDPLO\ KRXVHV RU DSDUWPHQW EXLOGLQJV ,W LV RSWLPL]HG IRU KHDWFRQWUROOHG RSHUDWLRQ HOHFWULFLW\ DQG KHDW SURGXFWLRQ LQ ZLQWHU '+: VXSSO\ ZLWKRXW HOHFWULFLW\ SURGXFWLRQ LQ WUDQVLWLRQDO SHULRG DQG VXPPHU  :RRG FKLSV DUH XVHG DV ELRPDVV VROLG IXHO DQG  HIIHFWLYH IXOO ORDG KRXUV DQQXDOO\ DUH DVVXPHG IRU WKH HOHFWULFLW\ JHQHUDWLRQSDUW

)XUWKHUPRUHIRUHDFKRIWKHDSSOLFDWLRQFDVHVWKUHHEDVLFWHFKQRORJ\SHUIRUPDQFHOHYHOVKDYHEHHQ HYDOXDWHGZKLFKFRYHUWKHPRVWOLNHO\DOWHUQDWLYHWHFKQRORJLHVIRUWKHDGGUHVVHGPDUNHWVHJPHQWLQ (XURSH IRFXVRQ&HQWUDO(XURSH$XVWULDHJIRURSHUDWLQJKRXUVDQG39VXQOLJKWDYDLODELOLW\ 'XHWR WKH HQYLVDJHG GHFHQWUDOLVHG RSHUDWLRQ DQG FRQVXPSWLRQ VWUDWHJ\ QR JHQHUDO OLPLWDWLRQV LQ WHUPV RI HOHFWULFLW\JULGIHHGLQFDSDFLWLHVDUHDVVXPHG

• %DVH &DVH %&  RU µ%XVLQHVV DV XVXDO %$8 ¶ DVVXPHV WKDW D VWDQGDUG ELRPDVV ERLOHU JHQHUDWHV WKH QHFHVVDU\ WKHUPDO RXWSXW IRU KHDW VXSSO\ ZKLOH HOHFWULFLW\ QHHGV RI WKH DSSOLFDWLRQFDVHDUHFRYHUHGZLWKJULGHOHFWULFLW\

• %HVW $YDLODEOH 7HFKQRORJ\ %$7  DVVXPHV D VWDWH RI WKH DUW ELRPDVV ERLOHU WKH KLJKO\ HIILFLHQW :LQGKDJHU 3XUR:,1 XOWUD ORZ HPLVVLRQ ERLOHU RQ WKH (8 PDUNHW VLQFH   WR JHQHUDWH WKH QHFHVVDU\ WKHUPDO RXWSXW FRPELQHG ZLWK D SKRWRYROWDLF 39  V\VWHP WR FRYHU WKHHOHFWULFLW\QHHGVRIWKHDSSOLFDWLRQFDVH7KHV\VWHPLVDOVRFRQQHFWHGWRWKHJULGWRIHHG LQ SRWHQWLDO H[FHVV 39 HOHFWULFLW\ SURGXFWLRQ RU WR FRYHU HOHFWULFLW\ GHPDQG VXUSDVVLQJ 39 HOHFWULFLW\RXWSXW

• %HVW1RW\HW$YDLODEOH7HFKQRORJ\ %1$7 UHSUHVHQWVWKHQHZO\GHYHORSHGµ)OH[L)XHO62)&¶ V\VWHP7KHQHHGVIRUERWKKHDWDQGHOHFWULFLW\LQHDFKDSSOLFDWLRQFDVHDUHFRYHUHGE\WKH &+3V\VWHPZKLFKLVDOVRFRQQHFWHGWRWKHJULGWRIHHGLQSRWHQWLDOH[FHVVIXHOFHOOHOHFWULFLW\ SURGXFWLRQRUWRFRYHUHOHFWULFLW\GHPDQGVXUSDVVLQJWKH&+3HOHFWULFLW\RXWSXW

(7)



7KHHQYLURQPHQWDOSHUIRUPDQFHSDUDPHWHUVIURPWKHILUVWSKDVHRIWKH)OH[L)XHO62)&SURMHFWKDYH EHHQ FRPSDUHG ZLWKLQ D SUHOLPLQDU\ HQYLURQPHQWDO SHUIRUPDQFH DQDO\VLV ZLWK UHVSHFWLYH GDWD IURP RWKHU VWDWHRIWKHDUW V\VWHPV LQ RUGHU WR HYDOXDWH DQG TXDQWLI\ WKH UHODWLYH SHUIRUPDQFH DQG LPSURYHPHQWSRWHQWLDOVRIWKHQHZWHFKQRORJ\RQDVLQJOHSURGXFW OHYHO3UHOLPLQDU\UHVXOWVIRU763 7RWDO 6XVSHQGHG 3DUWLFOHV DOVR UHIHUUHG WR DV µWRWDO GXVW¶  DQG HQHUJ\ HIILFLHQF\  EDVHG RQ IXHO LQSXWLQWHUPVRIQHWFDORULILFYDOXHµ1&9¶ORZHUKHDWLQJYDOXH /+9 ORZHUFDORULILFYDOXH /&9 DV ZHOODVFRPELQHGXVHIXOKHDWDQGHOHFWULFLW\RXWSXW DUHSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUH



)LJXUH3UHOLPLQDU\763HPLVVLRQIDFWRUVDQGHQHUJ\HIILFLHQF\FRPSDUHG 6RXUFH2ZQLOOXVWUDWLRQ

7DNLQJ WKH DYDLODEOH UHVXOWV IURP WKH ))62)& SURMHFW LQWR DFFRXQW WKH SUHOLPLQDU\ HQYLURQPHQWDO SHUIRUPDQFH DQDO\VLV UHYHDOHG VLJQLILFDQW WHFKQLFDO HPLVVLRQ VDYLQJ SRWHQWLDOV RI %$7 DQG %1$7 FRPSDUHG WR %$8 VWDQGDUG V\VWHPV 7KHUHE\ 763 WRWDO VXVSHQGHG SDUWLFOHV  DQG QRW LOOXVWUDWHG  2*& RUJDQLFJDVHRXVFRPSRXQGV DQG&2 FDUERQPRQR[LGH VKRZVLPLODUUHGXFWLRQWUHQGV )ROORZLQJ WKLV %$7 DQG %1$7 WHFKQRORJLHV KDYH WKH SRWHQWLDO WR UHDFK ODUJH RQVLWH HPLVVLRQ UHGXFWLRQVLQDVKRUWWLPHSHULRGLIEURDGPDUNHWGLIIXVLRQUDWHVFDQEHDFKLHYHGLQWKHIXWXUH%DVHG RQWKHFXUUHQWUHVXOWVDQGLQSXWGDWDLWFDQDOVREHFRQFOXGHGWKDWHYHQVWULQJHQWIXWXUH(PLVVLRQ/LPLW 9DOXHV (/9V  LQ WKH(8IRUQHZLQVWDOODWLRQV HJDVSDUWRIDIXWXUHUHYLVLRQ RIWKH (8 (FRGHVLJQ /RW UHJXODWLRQ RQ VROLG IXHO ERLOHUV  VKRXOG EH QR FRQVWUDLQW IRU WKH PXFK EHWWHU QHZ %$7 DQG %1$7V\VWHPV7KHSUHOLPLQDU\HQYLURQPHQWDOSHUIRUPDQFHDQDO\VLVDOVRUHYHDOHGWKDWLQFRQWUDVWWR WKHYHU\ORZHPLVVLRQOHYHOVWKHUHUHPDLQVDIXUWKHUWHFKQLFDORSWLPLVDWLRQSRWHQWLDOHVSHFLDOO\IRUWKH WRWDO DQQXDO HIILFLHQF\ OHYHOV RI %1$7 ))62)& WHFKQRORJLHV FRPSDUHG HJ WR WKH KLJKO\ HIILFLHQW 3XUR:,1%$7V\VWHP7KLVFDQEHH[SODLQHGPDLQO\E\WKHFXUUHQWVWDWXVRIWKH))62)&WHFKQRORJ\ EHLQJ VWLOO XQGHU GHYHORSPHQW HJ QR ILQDO LQVXODWLRQ DSSOLHG  WKH PRUH FRPSOH[ &+3 V\VWHP RSHUDWLRQ FRPSDUHG WR KHDW RQO\ RSHUDWLRQ IRU %$8 DQG %$7  DV ZHOO DV WKH WHFKQLFDOO\ PRUH FKDOOHQJLQJ XVDJH RI DJUR SHOOHW IXHO IRU $SSOLFDWLRQ $ &RQVHTXHQWO\ WKHVH DVSHFWV ZLOO EH IXUWKHU DGGUHVVHGLQWKHILQDOSKDVHRIWKH))62)&SURMHFW

%DVHGRQWKHSUHYLRXVGHILQLWLRQVDQGILQGLQJVIRUWKHPDFURVFDOH(8ZLGHLPSDFWDVVHVVPHQWWKH IROORZLQJ WKUHH EDVLF WHFKQRORJ\ VFHQDULRV KDYH EHHQ FRQVLGHUHG IRU HDFK DSSOLFDWLRQ FDVH DQG WKH DQDO\VHGVSHFLILFPDUNHWVHJPHQWIRUKHDWLQJDQG&+3V\VWHPV

• %& VFHQDULR DV µ%XVLQHVV DV XVXDO¶ %$8  GHYHORSPHQW VDOHV DQG VWRFN FRQVLVW RI %DVH &DVHVWDQGDUGDSSOLDQFHVWKURXJKRXWWKHVLPXODWLRQSHULRG                                         %$8 %$7 %1$7 %$8 %$7 %1$7 %$8 %$7 %1$7

$SSOLFDWLRQ$ $SSOLFDWLRQ% $SSOLFDWLRQ&

PJ 0 - 763 PJ0-  7RWDODQQXDO HIILFLHQF\  

(8)



• %$7 VFHQDULR 6DOHV DUH VZLWFKHG WR DVVXPHG  %HVW $YDLODEOH 7HFKQRORJ\ IURP WKH JLYHQUHIHUHQFHGDWHRQZDUGV

• %1$7VFHQDULR6DOHVVZLWFKWRDVVXPHG%HVW1RW\HW$YDLODEOH7HFKQRORJ\IURPWKH JLYHQGDWHRQZDUGV



,W KDV WR EH QRWHG WKDW VXFK VFHQDULRV SURYLGH LQVLJKWV LQWR µH[WUHPH¶ SDWKZD\V ZLWK  RI VDOHV VZLWFKWRDJLYHQWHFKQRORJ\SHUIRUPDQFHOHYHO ZLWKLQWKHDQDO\VHGPDUNHWVHJPHQWDWDJLYHQGDWH ZKLOH DOVR SURYLGLQJ D EDVHOLQH ZKLFK DVVXPHV QR FKDQJHV EHVLGHV WKH FRQWLQXDWLRQ RI FXUUHQW WUHQGV 7KH UHVXOW LV D FRUULGRU VKRZLQJ WKH UDQJH RI DYDLODEOH WHFKQLFDO SRWHQWLDOV WKDW FDQ EH DGGUHVVHG E\ D YDULDEOH GHSOR\PHQW RI WKH QHZ WHFKQRORJ\ HJ DV UHVXOW RI GLIIHUHQW SROLFHV DQG PHDVXUHV7KLVDSSURDFKZLWKµH[WUHPH¶SDWKZD\VKDVWKHDGYDQWDJHWRUHTXLUHVROHO\WRWDOVDOHVDQG VWRFNGDWDIRUHDFKDSSOLFDWLRQFDVHDQGQRPDUNHWVKDUHVSOLWLVUHTXLUHGDWWKLVOHYHO7KLVSURYLGHV XSSHUDQGORZHUOLPLWVIRUWKHDYDLODEOHFRUULGRUZKLFKLVHVSHFLDOO\UHOHYDQWIRUQHZWHFKQRORJLHVWKDW DUHVWLOOXQGHUGHYHORSPHQWDQGIRUZKLFKRQO\YHU\SUHOLPLQDU\GDWDLVDYDLODEOH

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

6WHS,PSDFW$QDO\VLV

7KHDQDO\VLVLQVWHSHYDOXDWHVTXDQWLWDWLYHO\WKHRSHUDWLRQUHODWHGLPSDFWVRIWKHRSWLRQVLGHQWLILHG LQWKHSUHYLRXVVWHS(DFKRSWLRQQHHGVWREHDQDO\VHGRQLWVRZQILUVWWKHEDVHOLQHWKDWLVRQH%$8 VFHQDULR SHU DSSOLFDWLRQ FDVH DQG QH[W DOVR WKH %$7 DQG %1$7 VFHQDULRV UHVSHFWLYHO\ )ROORZLQJ WKLV DSSURDFK WKH PRVW UHOHYDQW LPSDFW FDWHJRULHV DQG DVVRFLDWHG LQGLFDWRUV IRU WKH DQDO\VLV DUH SUHVHQWHG

7KHPRVWSHUWLQHQWXVHSKDVHHQYLURQPHQWDOLQGLFDWRUVIRU%,*)&VFRQFHUQDLUHPLVVLRQVLQFOXGLQJ FDUERQ GLR[LGH &2  DV WKH UHOHYDQW JUHHQKRXVH JDV 5HJDUGLQJ KDUPIXO HPLVVLRQV SDUWLFXODWH

PDWWHU 30JLYHQLQWKLVSDSHUDVµ7RWDO6XVSHQGHG3DUWLFOHV¶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

(9)



$VSHFXOLDULW\IRU&+3V\VWHPVHPLVVLRQVQHHGWREHWUHDWHGDVFRPELQHGUHVXOWRIGLUHFWRQVLWHIXHO FRPEXVWLRQDQGJULGHOHFWULFLW\HIIHFWV7DNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWDOVRDYRLGHGHPLVVLRQVIURPRIIVLWHJULG HOHFWULFLW\ JHQHUDWLRQ UHVXOWLQJ &+3 QHW HPLVVLRQV PD\ EH YLUWXDOO\ HYHQ QHJDWLYH %DVHG RQ EDVLF HPLVVLRQYDOXHVSHUIXHOW\SHIRUVROLGIXHOFRPEXVWLRQDQGDYHUDJHHPLVVLRQLQWHQVLWLHVSHUW\SH RI HOHFWULFLW\ JHQHUDWLRQ RI FRQYHQWLRQDO SRZHU JHQHUDWLRQ LQ (XURSH >@>@ IRU *+* HPLVVLRQ UDWHV

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µQHJDWLYHHPLVVLRQV¶ )LJXUH7RWDOQHW763HPLVVLRQV W DQGVWRFNYROXPH XQLWV (8$SSOLFDWLRQV$% & 6RXUFH2ZQLOOXVWUDWLRQ  )LJXUH7RWDOQHW*+*HPLVVLRQV W DQGVWRFNYROXPH XQLWV (8$SSOLFDWLRQV$% & 6RXUFH2ZQLOOXVWUDWLRQ )XUWKHULPSRUWDQWGULYHUVDUHWKHDVVXPSWLRQVPDGHUHJDUGLQJWKHG\QDPLFVRINH\SDUDPHWHUVVXFK DV WKH IXWXUH HQHUJ\ GHPDQG SHU EXLOGLQJ (J SUHVXPLQJ DOO RWKHU DVSHFWV EHLQJ HTXDO WRWDO VWRFN HPLVVLRQVPD\GHFUHDVHLQWKHORQJUXQHYHQLQ%$8DOWKRXJKWKHVWRFNVWLOOLQFUHDVHV7KHUHDVRQ OLHVLQWKHDVVXPSWLRQWKDWWKHW\SLFDOO\UHTXLUHGQRPLQDORXWSXWRIKHDWLQJDSSOLDQFHVZLOOGHFUHDVHDV H[SHFWHGHIIHFWRILPSURYHGLQVXODWLRQDQGHQHUJ\SHUIRUPDQFHRIEXLOGLQJV HJLQ(XURSHEDVHGRQ WKH (XURSHDQ 3HUIRUPDQFH RI %XLOGLQJV 'LUHFWLYH µ(3%'¶ >@  &RQVHTXHQWO\ WKLV ZRXOG PHDQ WKDW OHVVIXHOLQSXWSHUXQLWLVUHTXLUHGUHVXOWLQJGLUHFWO\LQOHVVIXHOUHODWHGHPLVVLRQV

6WHS&RPSDULVRQRIRSWLRQV

%DVHG RQ WKH GHILQHG RSHUDWLRQ SDUDPHWHUV WRWDO HPLVVLRQ VDYLQJ SRWHQWLDOV IURP $SSOLFDWLRQ $ DUH H[SHFWHG WR GZDUI WKRVH RI WKH RWKHU WZR DSSOLFDWLRQV HVSHFLDOO\ GXH WR WKH ODUJHU QRPLQDO V\VWHP FDSDFLW\ WKH KLJK QXPEHU RI DQQXDO IXOO ORDG RSHUDWLQJ KRXUV DQG WKH PRUH FKDOOHQJLQJ QRQZRRG\

 Ϭ ϭϬϬϬϬϬϬ ϮϬϬϬϬϬϬ ϯϬϬϬϬϬϬ ϰϬϬϬϬϬϬ ϱϬϬϬϬϬϬ ϲϬϬϬϬϬϬ ͲϱϬϬϬϬ Ϭ ϱϬϬϬϬ ϭϬϬϬϬϬ ϭϱϬϬϬϬ ϮϬϬϬϬϬ ϮϱϬϬϬϬ ϮϬϭϱ ϮϬϮϬ ϮϬϮϱ ϮϬϯϬ ϮϬϯϱ ϮϬϰϬ ϮϬϰϱ ϮϬϱϬ h Ŷŝƚ Ɛ  ƚ   d Ed ^ƚŽĐŬǀŽůƵŵĞ ;ƵŶŝƚƐͿ Ϭ ϭϬϬϬϬϬϬ ϮϬϬϬϬϬϬ ϯϬϬϬϬϬϬ ϰϬϬϬϬϬϬ ϱϬϬϬϬϬϬ ϲϬϬϬϬϬϬ ͲϭϱϬϬϬϬϬϬϬ ͲϭϬϬϬϬϬϬϬϬ ͲϱϬϬϬϬϬϬϬ Ϭ ϱϬϬϬϬϬϬϬ ϭϬϬϬϬϬϬϬϬ ϭϱϬϬϬϬϬϬϬ ϮϬϭϱ ϮϬϮϬ ϮϬϮϱ ϮϬϯϬ ϮϬϯϱ ϮϬϰϬ ϮϬϰϱ ϮϬϱϬ hŶŝ ƚƐ ƚ  d Ed ^ƚŽĐŬǀŽůƵŵĞ ;ƵŶŝƚƐͿ

(10)



ELRPDVV IXHO $SSOLFDWLRQ % LV D VPDOOHU GHYLFH ZLWK PXFK ORZHU WKHUPDO RXWSXW OHVV UHTXLUHG IXHO LQSXW OHVVRSHUDWLQJKRXUVSHU\HDUDQGXVHVµFOHDQHU¶ZRRG\ELRPDVVIXHO$SSOLFDWLRQ&UXQVHYHQ OHVVIXOOORDGRSHUDWLQJKRXUVWKDQ$SSOLFDWLRQ%JHQHUDWHVPRUHKHDWEXWOHVVHOHFWULFLW\LHUHOLHV PRUHRQJULGHOHFWULFLW\IRU%&V\VWHPV

,QJHQHUDOQHWJULG HOHFWULFLW\ HIIHFWVDUHPRVWUHOHYDQWUHJDUGLQJWKHWRWDO*+*HPLVVLRQVIRU%$8 %$7 DQG %1$7 GHYLFHV 1HW *+* HPLVVLRQV LQ WKH %$8 VFHQDULRV DUH SDUWLFXODUO\ KLJKHU GXH WR KLJKHU(8WUDGLWLRQDOSRZHUJULGHPLVVLRQLQWHQVLWLHV ZKLOHERWK %$7DQG%1$7*+*QHWHPLVVLRQV PD\HYHQYLUWXDOO\GHFUHDVHEHORZ]HURGXHWRORZHUHPLVVLRQLQWHQVLWLHVFRPELQHGZLWKWKHDYRLGHG JULG HOHFWULFLW\ 7KLV LV DOVR WKH FDVH HYHQ ZLWK GHFUHDVLQJ IXWXUH SRZHU JULG HOHFWULFLW\ HPLVVLRQ LQWHQVLWLHV DFFRUGLQJWRFXUUHQWWUHQGV WDNHQLQWRDFFRXQW

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



7DEOH%1$7 ))62)& VDYLQJSRWHQWLDOVFRPSDUHGWR%$8VFHQDULRV

,PSDFWLQGLFDWRU $SSOLFDWLRQ$ $SSOLFDWLRQ% $SSOLFDWLRQ&

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

(QYLURQPHQWDOSROLF\DVSHFWVIRU&+3

,Q WKH ODVW  \HDUV PXFK KDV EHHQ GRQH WR VXSSRUW FRJHQHUDWLRQ LH DQ HQYLURQPHQWDOO\ IULHQGO\ ZD\ WR JHQHUDWH HOHFWULFLW\ DQG XVHIXO KHDW ,Q (XURSH VHYHUDO SROLFLHV RQ (8 DQG 0HPEHU 6WDWHV 06  OHYHO ZHUH LQWURGXFHG WR IRVWHU WKH WHFKQRORJ\ $W WKH VDPH WLPH WKH DLPZDV WR LQFUHDVH WKH RYHUDOOHQHUJ\HIILFLHQF\RIWKHWHFKQRORJ\DQGWRUHGXFHKDUPIXOHPLVVLRQVWRWKHHQYLURQPHQWJLYLQJ GLUHFWO\RULQGLUHFWO\JHQHUDOLQFHQWLYHVDOVRIRUWKHGHYHORSPHQWRILQQRYDWLYH%,*)&V

,QDVWUDWHJ\ WRSURPRWH&+3DQGWRGLVPDQWOHEDUULHUVWRLWVGHYHORSPHQWZDVSXEOLVKHG>@ )URP WKDW WLPH WKH ZD\ ZDV RSHQ IRU DQ DFFHOHUDWHG GHYHORSPHQW WRZDUGV FRJHQHUDWLRQ 7KH QH[W )LJXUH  LOOXVWUDWHV WKH UHOHYDQW PDLQ (8 SROLFLHV RQ D WLPHOLQH 7KH 'LUHFWLYHV ZKLFK DUH ZULWWHQ LQ EROGDUHNH\SROLFLHVWKDWKDYHDVWURQJLQIOXHQFHRQ&+3WKHRWKHUPHDVXUHVKDYHDQLQGLUHFWHIIHFW $OO WRJHWKHU WKH\ IRUP D FRPSUHKHQVLYH SROLF\ SDFNDJH LQFOXGLQJ FOHDU WDUJHWV WD[HV PLQLPXP

(11)



VWDQGDUGV FDSDFLW\ EXLOGLQJ DQG ILQDQFLDO LQFHQWLYHV ,Q DGGLWLRQ LW LV LPSRUWDQW WR FRQVLGHU WKDW (8 OHYHOPHDVXUHVDUHFRPSOHPHQWHGE\(80HPEHU6WDWH¶VQDWLRQDOSROLFLHV6RPH06OLNH*HUPDQ\ %HOJLXP DQG WKH 1HWKHUODQGV KDYH DOUHDG\ LQWURGXFHG DPELWLRXV SODQV WKDW JR IDU EH\RQG WKH UHTXLUHPHQWVRIWKH (87KHUHOHYDQW (8 SROLFLHV ZLWKLPSOLFDWLRQVDOVRIRUVPDOOVFDOHV\VWHPVDUH GHVFULEHGEHORZ



)LJXUH(YROXWLRQRIWKH(8OHJLVODWLYHUHJLPHRQFRJHQHUDWLRQ 6RXUFH2ZQLOOXVWUDWLRQ

,QWKH &+3'LUHFWLYH(&>@ ZDVSXEOLVKHG ZLWKWKHDLPWR µLQFUHDVHHQHUJ\ HIILFLHQF\ DQG LPSURYH VHFXULW\ RI VXSSO\ E\ FUHDWLQJ D IUDPHZRUN IRU SURPRWLRQ DQG GHYHORSPHQW RI KLJK HIILFLHQF\FRJHQHUDWLRQRIKHDWDQGSRZHUEDVHGRQXVHIXOKHDWGHPDQGDQGSULPDU\HQHUJ\VDYLQJV¶ 7KLVZDVWKHILUVW'LUHFWLYHZLWKDIRFXVRQO\RQFRJHQHUDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHV,QWKLV'LUHFWLYHZDV UHSHDOHGE\WKH(QHUJ\(IILFLHQF\'LUHFWLYH ((' (8>@DQGIRUPVWRGD\WKHEDVLVIRUWKH &+3GHYHORSPHQWRQ(8OHYHO ,QFRQWUDVWWRWKH(('WKH(FRGHVLJQ'LUHFWLYH(&>@ DOVRUHIHUUHGWRDVµ(QHUJ\UHODWHG 3URGXFWV¶RU(U3'LUHFWLYH IRUPVDIUDPHZRUNWRVHWPLQLPXPSHUIRUPDQFHUHTXLUHPHQWVIRUVSHFLILF SURGXFW JURXSV 6HYHUDO (FRGHVLJQ LPSOHPHQWLQJ PHDVXUHV DGGUHVV FRJHQHUDWLRQ HJ UHJXODWLRQ DSSOLHVWRVROLGIXHOV\VWHPVZLWKDQRPLQDOKHDWRXWSXWRIN:WKRUOHVVDVZHOODVWR

VROLG IXHO FRJHQHUDWLRQ ERLOHUV ZLWK DQ HOHFWULFDO FDSDFLW\ RI OHVV WKDQ  N:HO 7KH UHJXODWLRQ VHWV

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

%HVLGHV FRJHQHUDWLRQVSHFLILF 'LUHFWLYHV WKH 5HQHZDEOH (QHUJ\ 'LUHFWLYH 5('  DQG WKH (QHUJ\ 3HUIRUPDQFH RI %XLOGLQJV 'LUHFWLYH (3%'  EXLOG D JHQHUDO SROLF\ IUDPHZRUN 7KHVH IUDPHZRUN

ϭϵϵϳ ϮϬϬϭ ϮϬϬϯ ϮϬϭϲ ϮϬϬϲ ϮϬϬϱ ϮϬϬϰ ϮϬϭϮ ϮϬϭϬ ϮϬϬϵ ϮϬϬϴ ^ƚƌĂƚĞŐLJƚŽƉƌŽŵŽƚĞ,W >ĂƌŐĞŽŵďƵƐ ŽŶWůĂŶƚĂŶĚEĂ ŽŶĂůŵŝƐƐŝŽŶĞŝůŝŶŐŝƌĞĐ ǀĞ ŶĞƌŐLJdĂdžŝƌĞĐ ǀĞ ŽŵďŝŶĞĚ,ĞĂƚĂŶĚWŽǁĞƌŝƌĞĐ ǀĞ;,WŝƌĞĐ ǀĞͿ ĐŽĚĞƐŝŐŶŝƌĞĐ ǀĞ;ƌWͿ͕ŵŝƐƐŝŽŶdƌĂĚŝŶŐ^ĐŚĞŵĞ;hd^Ϳ ŶĞƌŐLJ^ĞƌǀŝĐĞŝƌĞĐ ǀĞ ŵďŝĞŶƚŝƌYƵĂůŝƚLJŝƌĞĐ ǀĞ ZĞŶĞǁĂďůĞŶĞƌŐLJŝƌĞĐ ǀĞ;ZͿ /ŶĚƵƐƚƌŝĂůŵŝƐƐŝŽŶŝƌĞĐ ǀĞ;/Ϳ͕ŶĞƌŐLJWĞƌĨŽƌŵĂŶĐĞŽĨ ƵŝůĚŝŶŐƐŝƌĞĐ ǀĞ;WͿ͕ŶĞƌŐLJ>ĂďĞůůŝŶŐŝƌĞĐ ǀĞ ŶĞƌŐLJĨĨŝĐŝĞŶĐLJŝƌĞĐ ǀĞ;Ϳ ,ĞĂ ŶŐĂŶĚŽŽůŝŶŐ^ƚƌĂƚĞŐLJ

(12)



'LUHFWLYHVGRQRWDIIHFW&+3VSHFLILFDOO\EXWKDYHDVWURQJLQIOXHQFHLQIRVWHULQJWKHPDUNHW7KHUHE\ WKH5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\'LUHFWLYH(&>@KDVDOVRDQLQGLUHFWUROHLQLQIOXHQFLQJFRJHQHUDWLRQ DSSOLFDWLRQV ZLWK LWV VSHFLILF UROH IRU ELRPDVV %HVLGHV RWKHU DVSHFWV WKH 'LUHFWLYH HVWDEOLVKHV REMHFWLYHVWRH[SDQGWKHVKDUHRIUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\LQWKHHQHUJ\PL[RIWKH06



(YHQ WKRXJK WKH 5(' GRHV QRW LQFOXGH D VSHFLILF WDUJHW RQ WKH H[SDQVLRQ RI FRJHQHUDWLRQ LQ SDUWLFXODU 06 FDQ PHHW (8 UHQHZDEOH HQHUJ\ REMHFWLYHV DPRQJ RWKHUV HJ FRILULQJ  DOVR E\ ELRPDVVFRJHQHUDWLRQ,QDGGLWLRQWKH'LUHFWLYHUHTXHVWVDQQXDO1DWLRQDO5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\$FWLRQ 3ODQV 15($3V ZKLFKVKDOOSURYLGHSODQQLQJVHFXULW\IRULQYHVWRUV



$QRWKHU UHOHYDQW UHJXODWLRQ LV WKH (QHUJ\ 3HUIRUPDQFH RI %XLOGLQJV 'LUHFWLYH (8 >@ E\ VWLSXODWLQJ LQ D KROLVWLF ZD\ WKDW EXLOGLQJV EHFRPH PRUH HQHUJ\HIILFLHQW ([LVWLQJ EXLOGLQJV DUH VXSSRVHGWRPHHWHQHUJHWLFVWDQGDUGV $UWLFOH DQGDOOQHZEXLOGLQJVZLOOKDYHWREHµ1HDUO\=HUR (QHUJ\ %XLOGLQJV¶ 1=(%  E\ WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI  )XUWKHUPRUH IRU QHZ EXLOGLQJV WKH 'LUHFWLYH LQVWUXFWV WKDW µWKH WHFKQLFDO HQYLURQPHQWDO DQG HFRQRPLF IHDVLELOLW\ RI KLJKHIILFLHQF\ DOWHUQDWLYH V\VWHPV¶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ŽůŝĚ ĨƵĞůƐ >ŝƋƵŝĚĨƵĞůƐ 'ĂƐĞŽƵƐ ĨƵĞůƐ ZĞŶĞǁĂďůĞĨƵĞůƐ ^LJƐƚĞŵ ƉŽǁĞƌƌĂŶŐĞ Ϭ ϭϬϬϬDtĞů ϱϬDtƚŚ džDtƚŚ Ϭ͘ϬϱDtĞůͬϬ͘ϱDtƚŚ dLJƉĞŽĨĨƵĞů ƌWΘ ŶĞƌŐLJ>ĂďĞů W ϮϬDtƚŚ Z / hd^  ŝƌĞĐ ǀĞƐ͗

(13)



&RQFOXVLRQVDQGRXWORRN

7KLVSDSHUSURYLGHVLQVLJKWVLQWRWKHPRVWHVVHQWLDOHQYLURQPHQWDODVSHFWVRIVPDOOVFDOHJDVLILHUIXHO FHOO&+3V\VWHPVEDVHGRQSUHOLPLQDU\HQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWDVVHVVPHQWUHVXOWVIRUWKHWHFKQRORJ\ GHYHORSHGLQWKH(8+RUL]RQSURMHFWµ)OH[L)XHO62)&¶

7KUHH VSHFLILF DSSOLFDWLRQ FDVHV ZHUH LQYHVWLJDWHG ZKLFK UHSUHVHQW WKH PRVW SURPLVLQJ ILHOGV RI DSSOLFDWLRQ IRU WKH QHZ WHFKQRORJ\ RQ WKH (XURSHDQ PDUNHW $SSOLFDWLRQ $ IRU KRWHOV HQWHUSULVHV VPDOO GLVWULFW KHDWLQJ QHWZRUNV $SSOLFDWLRQ % IRU IDUPV VPDOO HQWHUSULVHV PLFUR JULGV DV ZHOO DV $SSOLFDWLRQ&IRUVPDOOHUUHVLGHQWLDOEXLOGLQJV)XUWKHUPRUHIRUHDFKRIWKHDSSOLFDWLRQFDVHVWKHQHZ ))62)& V\VWHPV DV µ%HVW 1RW \HW $YDLODEOH 7HFKQRORJ\¶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

7KH SUHVHQWHG UHVXOWV FOHDUO\ LGHQWLI\ WKH PDLQ HPLVVLRQ GULYHUV IRU WKH GLIIHUHQW WHFKQRORJLHV FRQVLGHUHG ,Q DOO VFHQDULRV JUHHQKRXVH JDV *+*  HPLVVLRQV DUH GULYHQ E\ JULG HOHFWULFLW\ FRQVXPSWLRQ HIIHFWV 6LQFH %$7 DQG %1$7 WHFKQRORJLHV JHQHUDWH WKHLU RZQ HOHFWULFLW\ DYRLGHG RII VLWH JULG HOHFWULFLW\ HPLVVLRQV TXLFNO\ RYHUFRPSHQVDWH GLUHFW RQVLWH HPLVVLRQV IURP IXHO XVDJH LQ WKHVH VFHQDULRV PHDQLQJ WKDW QHW *+* HPLVVLRQV DUH YLUWXDOO\ QHJDWLYH 5HJDUGLQJ QRQ*+* HPLVVLRQV RQVLWH VROLG IXHO FRPEXVWLRQ LV E\ IDU WKH PDLQ GULYHU LQ EDVHOLQH VFHQDULRV ZKLOH HPLVVLRQV IURP IXHO FRPEXVWLRQ DQG QHW JULG HOHFWULFLW\ HPLVVLRQV HYHQ WHQG WR RYHU FRPSHQVDWH HDFKRWKHULQ%$7DQG%1$7VFHQDULRV%1$7VFHQDULRVVKRZVLJQLILFDQWWHFKQLFDOHPLVVLRQVDYLQJ SRWHQWLDOV FRPSDUHG WR %& DQG HYHQ %$7 V\VWHPV PDLQO\ EHFDXVH YDVWO\ OHVV HPLVVLRQ LQWHQVLYH %1$7GHYLFHVFRQVLVWHQWO\KHOSWRDYRLGPRUHJULGHOHFWULFLW\FRQVXPSWLRQWKDQ LQWHUPLWWHQW%$739 V\VWHPV ,W KDV WR EH PHQWLRQHG WKDW VXFK UHVXOWV DUH VHQVLWLYH WR VHYHUDO FUXFLDO SUHOLPLQDU\  WHFKQLFDO SDUDPHWHUV RI WKH ))62)& WHFKQRORJLHV WKDW DUH VWLOO XQGHU GHYHORSPHQW VXFK DV HJ HPLVVLRQ LQWHQVLWLHV RI WKH GLIIHUHQW VROLG IXHOV XVHG E\ WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ FDVHV )XUWKHU DVVXPSWLRQV UHJDUGLQJWKHIXWXUHGHYHORSPHQWRI(8JULGHOHFWULFLW\HPLVVLRQLQWHQVLWLHVDQGKHDWHQHUJ\GHPDQG GULYLQJ WKHUPDO RXWSXW KHQFH IXHO UHTXLUHPHQWV  DUH DOVR YHU\ UHOHYDQW IRU WKH RYHUDOO EHKDYLRXU RI WKHPRGHOOLQJ

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

$GGLWLRQDOO\ WKH JDLQHGUHVXOWVKDYHWREHVHWLQWRUHODWLRQ ZLWKSROLF\GHYHORSPHQWVDGGUHVVLQJWKH &+3 VHFWRU (VSHFLDOO\ IRU VPDOOHU &+3 V\VWHPV WDUJHWLQJ DW WKH UHVLGHQWLDO VHFWRU SROLFLHV WKDW DGGUHVV WKH W\SLFDOO\ UHTXLUHG VL]H RI KHDWLQJ DSSOLDQFHV PD\ DIIHFW FRQVLGHUDEO\ WKH GHYHORSPHQW DQG XVDJH SURILOHV RI VXFK V\VWHPV 0RVW SURPLQHQWO\ HJ LQ (XURSH EDVHG RQ WKH (XURSHDQ 3HUIRUPDQFHRI%XLOGLQJV'LUHFWLYHµ(3%'¶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

(14)



$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV 

7KHUHVHDUFKOHDGLQJWRWKHSUHVHQWHGUHVXOWVKDVUHFHLYHGIXQGLQJIURPWKH (XURSHDQ 8QLRQ+RUL]RQ3URJUDPPH + XQGHU*UDQW$JUHHPHQWQƒ

(15)



5HIHUHQFHV

>@ %LRPDVV%DVHG)XHO&HOO6\VWHPV  (IILFLHQF\RI%LRPDVV(QHUJ\± GRLFK >@ (&  *XLGHOLQHVRQ,PSDFW$VVHVVPHQWJDWKHULQJDQGDQDO\VLQJHYLGHQFHWRVXSSRUW SROLF\PDNLQJKWWSHFHXURSDHXVPDUWUHJXODWLRQJXLGHOLQHVXJBFKDSBHQKWP >@ 81(3  %ULQJH]X66FKW]+2¶%ULHQ0.DXSSL/+RZDUWK5:$VVHVVLQJ ELRIXHOVWRZDUGVVXVWDLQDEOHSURGXFWLRQDQGXVHRIUHVRXUFHV81(31DLUREL8QLWHG1DWLRQV (QYLURQPHQW3URJUDPPH KWWSZZZXQHSIUVFSUSDQHOSGI$VVHVVLQJB%LRIXHOVB)XOOB5HSRUWSGI >@ ,($  (QHUJ\(IILFLHQW3URVSHULW\7KHµILUVWIXHO¶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

Cytaty

Powiązane dokumenty

In particular, measurements of the Josephson emission enable the detection of topological gapless Andreev bound states that give rise to emission at half the Josephson frequency f

[r]

ZLWK RQH RI WKH FRQGLWLRQV IRU

Inną z cnót mistrza jest jego postawa odpowiedzialności (Olbrycht 2007, s. Chodzi tutaj głównie o  psychopedagogiczną oraz moralną odpo- wiedzialność tworzenia więzi z 

Kłócą się z  doktrynami neoliberalnego ładu politycznego, z  grupami intere- sów zbiorowego egoizmu, z  dysfunkcjonalnymi instytucjami i  organami pań- stwa, wreszcie z 

Po pierwsze, podkreśla się, iż rzeczywista i pełna realizacja prawa do uczestnictwa społecznego dzieci opiera się na wprowadzeniu całej gamy warunków legislacyjnych, politycznych

„Najbardziej fascynującym zjawiskiem z punktu widzenia pedagogiki jest reorientacja i  kształtowanie się postaw społecznych wobec tych fenomenów transformacji globalnej,

Szukając odpowiedzi na pytanie dotyczące miejsc owego ukrycia moż- na odnieść się do poglądów R. Autor opisując szkołę jako przestrzeń nawiedzoną przez duchy: