$11$/(6
81,9(56,7$7,60$5,$(&85,(6.à2'2:6.$
/8%/,1±32/21,$
92//;,; 6(&7,2& 'HSDUWPHQWRI$JURQRP\DQG3ODQW%UHHGLQJ)DFXOW\RI$JULFXOWXUH8QLYHUVLW\RI0DUDJKHK 32%R[0DUDJKHK,UDQ &RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRUHPDLOVDEDJKQLD#PDUDJKHKDFLU1$6(56$%$*+1,$
,QYHVWLJDWLRQRIVRPHPRUSKRORJLFDOWUDLWVLQVWXGLHG
OHQWLO/HQVFXOLQDULV0HGLNJHQRW\SHVJURZQZLWKIROLDU
DSSOLFDWLRQRIQDQRVL]HGIHUULFR[LGH
%DGDQLDQDGQLHNWyU\PLFHFKDPLPRUIRORJLF]Q\PLZ\EUDQ\FKJHQRW\SyZVRF]HZLF\ /HQVFXOLQDULV0HGLNKRGRZDQ\FKZREHFQRĞFLQDQRF]ąVWHNWOHQNXĪ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¿UVWWZRSULQFLSDOFRPSRQHQWV3&DQG3&DFFRXQWHGIRURIWKHWRWDO YDULDWLRQ7KHSRO\JRQYLHZRI*7ELSORWVXJJHVWHGIRXUVHFWLRQVIRUWKHOHQWLOJHQRW\SHVDVZHOODV WUDLWV7KHYHUWH[JHQRW\SHV*KDGSODQWKHLJKWQXPEHURIEUDQFKHVSHUSODQWQXPEHURISRGVSHU SODQWJUDLQVZHLJKWDQGJUDLQ\LHOGWUDLWV7KHPRVWSURPLQHQWUHODWLRQZHUHDVWURQJSRVLWLYH DVVRFLDWLRQDPRQJELRORJLFDO\LHOGQXPEHURIEUDQFKHVSHUSODQWQXPEHURISRGVSHUSODQWJUDLQV \LHOG DQG SODQW KHLJKW DV LQGLFDWHG E\ WKH VPDOO REWXVH DQJOHV EHWZHHQ WKHLU YHFWRUV7KH WUDLWV¶ UHODWLRQVKLSLQWKHVHPLDULGZDVKLJKO\YDULDEOHDQGJUDLQ\LHOGLPSURYHPHQWFDQEHDFKLHYHGE\ VHOHFWLQJIRUQXPEHURISRGVSHUSODQWJUDLQVZHLJKW:HVXJJHVWWKDWWKH*7ELSORWEHXVHG MRLQWO\WREHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGDQGPRUHIXOO\H[SORUHLQWHUDFWLRQSDWWHUQGDWD.H\ZRUGVJHQRW\SHîWUDLW*7ELSORWSRO\JRQYLHZUHJUHVVLRQVLWH
675(6=&=(1,(
8SUDZD VRF]HZLF\ QD WHUHQDFK SyáSXVW\QQ\FK EXG]L Z]UDVWDMąFH ]DLQWHUHVRZDQLH ]H Z]JOĊGX QD SRWHQFMDOQH NRU]\ĞFL Z SRUyZQDQLX GR LQQ\FK URĞOLQ VWUąF]NRZ\FK (NVSHU\PHQW SU]HSURZDG]RQRZFHOX]EDGDQLDZ\EUDQ\FKFHFKVRF]HZLF\SRSRGDQLXQDQRF]ąVWHNWOHQNXĪHOD]D XRĞPLXJHQRW\SyZ]]DVWRVRZDQLHPWHFKQLNLELSORWGRZL]XDOL]DFMLGDQ\FK2UJDQ\ZHJHWDW\ZQH L JHQHUDW\ZQH Z UyĪQ\FK ID]DFK UR]ZRMX VSU\VNLZDQR QDQRF]ąVWNDPL WOHQNX ĪHOD]D J/ %DGDQLDZ\ND]Dá\ĪH]DVWRVRZDQLHWHFKQLNLELSORWNWyUDXPRĪOLZLDJUD¿F]QHZ\ND]DQLH]ZLą]NX PLĊG]\FHFKDPLLXáDWZLDLFKZL]XDOL]DFMĊMHVWXĪ\WHF]QHGRSRUyZQDQLDJHQRW\SyZ3LHUZV]HGZD JáyZQHF]\QQLNL3&L3&Z\MDĞQLDá\FDáNRZLWHM]PLHQQRĞFL:LHORVWURQQHREUD]RZDQLH *7ELSORWVXJHURZDáRZ\VWĊSRZDQLHF]WHUHFKJUXSJHQRW\SyZVRF]HZLF\LLFKFHFK:LHU]FKRáNL UHSUH]HQWXMąFHJHQRW\S\*SU]HGVWDZLDá\Z\VRNRĞüURĞOLQOLF]EĊSĊGyZURĞOLQ\OLF]EĊVWUąNyZ QDURĞOLQLHZDJĊ]LDUHQLZ\GDMQRĞü1DMEDUG]LHMZLGRF]QHUHODFMHWRZ\UDĨQLHSR]\W\ZQ\ ]ZLą]HNPLĊG]\Z\GDMQRĞFLąELRORJLF]QDSORQXOLF]EąSĊGyZURĞOLQ\OLF]EąVWUąNyZQDURĞOLQLH SORQHPLZ\VRNRĞFLąURĞOLQ.RUHODFMDFHFKXSyáSXVW\QQ\FKURĞOLQE\áDEDUG]R]PLHQQDDSRSUDZĊ SORQX]LDUQDPRĪQDRVLąJQąüSU]H]VHOHNFMĊURĞOLQRRNUHĞORQHMOLF]ELHVWUąNyZLZDG]H]LDUHQ :\ND]DQR ĪH ]DVWRVRZDQLH WHFKQLNL *7 ELSORW SR]ZDOD OHSLHM ]UR]XPLHü L SHáQLHM EDGDü Z]RU\ LQWHUDNFML 6áRZDNOXF]RZHJHQRW\Sî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¿OOPHQWRIWKLVWDVNGHSHQGVRQDQXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHJHQRW\SHîWUDLW*7LQWHUDFWLRQ SDWWHUQZKLFKKDVEHHQWKHIRFXVRIQXPHURXVVWXGLHVDQGWKHLQWHUUHODWLRQVDPRQJWKH PHDVXUHGWUDLWV<DQHWDOSURSRVHGD**(ELSORWPRGHOWKDWDOORZVYLVXDOH[DPLQDWLRQRI WKHJHQRW\SHîHQYLURQPHQW*(LQWHUDFWLRQSDWWHUQRIPXOWLHQYLURQPHQWDOWULDOVGDWD7KHPHWKRG HPSKDVL]HVWZRFRQFHSWVJHQRW\SHPDLQHIIHFW*DQG*(LQWHUDFWLRQ /HQWLO/HQVFXOLQDULV0HGLNLVWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQW¿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¿FLHQF\DQGVORZFRQWUROOHGUHOHDVHRIQXWULHQWVPLJKW EH D EHVW DOWHUQDWLYH WR PHHW WKH IRRG QHHGV RI D JURZLQJ SRSXODWLRQ 7KH REMHFWLYH RI SUHVHQW UHVHDUFKZDVWRGHVFULEHD*7ELSORWPRGHOZKLFKLVDQDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKH**(ELSORWPRGHOWR
1$6(56$%$*+1,$
6RPH DJURQRPLF WUDLWV LQFOXGLQJ 3+ SODQW KHLJKW FP 16% QXPEHU RI EUDQFKHV SHU SODQW31QXPEHURISRGVSHUSODQW5'URRWLQJGHSWKFP1(3QXPEHURIHPSW\SRGV+*: JUDLQVZHLJKWJ*<JUDLQV\LHOGDQG%<ELRORJLFDO\LHOGZHUHUHFRUGHGRQUDQGRPO\ VHOHFWHGSODQWVLQHDFKSORW3ORWVZHUHKDUYHVWHGDWWKHJURXQGOHYHOE\KDQGIURPODWH-XQHWRHDUO\ -XO\DQGJUDLQDQGELRORJLFDO\LHOGZDVGHWHUPLQHGE\KDUYHVWLQJWKHPLGGOHWKUHHURZVRIHDFKSORW
7KH *7 ELSORW PRGHO ZDV XVHG WR VKRZ WKH OHQWLO JHQRW\SH E\ WUDLW WZRZD\ GDWD LQ DELSORW6LPSOHFRUUHODWLRQFRHI¿FLHQWVEHWZHHQDOOSRVVLEOHFRPELQDWLRQVRIWUDLWVZHUHZRUNHG RXW$OOELSORWVSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVVWXG\ZHUHJHQHUDWHGXVLQJWKHVRIWZDUH**(ELSORWSDFNDJH
5(68/76$1'',6&866,21
7KH*7ELSORWH[SODLQHGRIWKHWRWDOYDULDWLRQRIWKHVWDQGDUGL]HGGDWD
DQG WKLV UHODWLYHO\ KLJK PDJQLWXGH UHÀHFWV WKH FRPSOH[LW\ RI WKH UHODWLRQVKLSV
DPRQJWKHPHDVXUHGWUDLWV7KH¿UVWWZRSULQFLSDOFRPSRQHQWV3&DQG3&
H[SODLQHGDQGUHVSHFWLYHO\7KHELSORW)LJDVSRO\JRQYLHZSUH
VHQWVGDWDRIHLJKWOHQWLOJHQRW\SHVLQQLQHGLIIHUHQWWUDLWVDQGWKHIROORZLQJFDQ
EHVHHQWKHYHUWH[JHQRW\SHVLQWKLVLQYHVWLJDWLRQDUH****DQG*
7KHVHJHQRW\SHVDUHWKHEHVWRUWKHSRRUHVWJHQRW\SHVLQVRPHRUDOORIWKHWUDLWV
VLQFHWKH\KDGWKHORQJHVWGLVWDQFHIURPWKHRULJLQRIELSORW7KHUHIRUH*KDGWKH
KLJKHVWYDOXHVIRU16%31*<3+DQG+*:WUDLWV*KDGWKHKLJKHVWYDOXHV
IRU 5' DQG %< WUDLWV * KDG WKH KLJKHVW YDOXHV IRU 61 WUDLW DQG * KDG WKH
KLJKHVWYDOXHVIRU1(3WUDLW)LJ7KHYHUWH[JHQRW\SHVDQGWKHLUUHODWHGJH
QRW\SHVRIWKHPZKLFKDUHORFDWHGLQGLIIHUHQWVHYHQVHFWLRQVRIELSORWDUHJRRG
FDQGLGDWHVIRUH[DPLQDWLRQKHWHURVLVIRUK\EULGSURGXFWLRQLQOHQWLOXVLQJ
WKHVHJHQRW\SHVRUSXUHOLQHV
,19(67,*$7,212)620(0253+2/2*,&$/75$,76,1678',('/(17,//(16&8/,1$5,60(',.UMCS
UMCS
,Q )LJ WKH PRVW SURPLQHQW UHODWLRQV DUH D VWURQJ SRVLWLYH DVVRFLDWLRQ
DPRQJ%<16%31*<DQG3+DVLQGLFDWHGE\WKHVPDOOREWXVHDQJOHVEHWZHHQ
WKHLUYHFWRUVU FRV 7KHUHZDVDQHDU]HURFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQ1(3DQG
+*:EHWZHHQ1(3DQG61%<DQG+*:DQG61ZLWK*<DQG3+)LJ
DV LQGLFDWHG E\ WKH QHDU SHUSHQGLFXODU YHFWRUV U FRV $ VWURQJ QHJDWLYH
DVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQ61DQG+*:DQGEHWZHHQ1(3DQG%<LVLQGLFDWHGE\WKH
ODUJHREWXVHDQJOHVEHWZHHQWKHLUYHFWRUVU FRV 0RVWRIWKHPHQWLRQHG
UHVXOWVFDQEHYHUL¿HGXVLQJFRUUHODWLRQFRHI¿FLHQWVRI7DEOHZKLOHVRPHGLVFUH
SDQFLHVEHWZHHQWKHELSORWSUHGLFWLRQVDQGRULJLQDOGDWDZHUHH[SHFWHGEHFDXVH
WKH ELSORW DFFRXQWHG IRU RI WKH WRWDO YDULDWLRQ DERXW 6LPLODU WR
YHFWRUYLHZRIWHVWHUVWKHUHODWLRQVDPRQJVWXGLHGJHQRW\SHVDUHLQYHVWLJDWHGYLD
YHFWRUYLHZRIHQWULHV)LJDQGVKRZWKDWWKHOHQWLOJHQRW\SHVDUHYHU\YDULDEOH
UHJDUGLQJPHDVXUHGWUDLWV
,19(67,*$7,212)620(0253+2/2*,&$/75$,76,1678',('/(17,//(16&8/,1$5,60(',. )LJ9HFWRUYLHZRIWKHJHQRW\SHE\WUDLW*7ELSORWZKLFKVKRZVWKHFRUUHODWLRQDPRQJ PHDVXUHGWUDLWV7UDLWVDEEUHYLDWLRQVDUH3+SODQWKHLJKW16%QXPEHURIEUDQFKHVSHUSODQW31 QXPEHURISRGVSHUSODQW5'URRWLQJGHSWKFP1(3QXPEHURIHPSW\SRGV+*:JUDLQV ZHLJKW*<JUDLQV\LHOGDQG%<ELRORJLFDO\LHOGUMCS
)LJ9HFWRUYLHZRIWKHJHQRW\SHE\WUDLW*7ELSORWZKLFKVKRZVWKHFRUUHODWLRQDPRQJ VWXGLHGJHQRW\SHV7UDLWVDEEUHYLDWLRQVDUH3+SODQWKHLJKW16%QXPEHURIEUDQFKHVSHUSODQW 31 QXPEHU RI SRGV SHU SODQW 5' URRWLQJ GHSWK FP 1(3 QXPEHU RI HPSW\ SRGV +*: JUDLQVZHLJKW*<JUDLQV\LHOGDQG%<ELRORJLFDO\LHOG 7DEOH3KHQRW\SLFFRHI¿FLHQWVRIFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQPHDVXUHGWUDLWV 3+ 16% 31 61 5' 1(3 +*: *< 16% 31 61 5' 1(3 +*: *< %< &ULWLFDOYDOXHVRIFRUUHODWLRQ3DQG3GIDUHDQGUHVSHFWLYHO\
UMCS
,QOHQWLOLPSURYHPHQWIRUDFKLHYLQJKLJKJUDLQ\LHOGDVDQLPSRUWDQWGHVLUD
EOHWUDLWLVWKHSXUSRVHRIPDQ\EUHHGLQJSURJUDPV,QWKH)LJOHQWLOJUDLQ\LHOG
*<ZDVFRPSDUHGZLWKRWKHUPHDVXUHGWUDLWV5DQNLQJRIRWKHUWUDLWVEDVHGRQ
WKH*<ZDV3+!31!16%!%<!+*:!5'!1(3,QRWKHUZRUGVWKHPRVW
LPSRUWDQWWUDLWVIRUSURGXFLQJKLJK\LHOGLQJOHQWLOYDULHWLHVDUH3+31DQG16%
DQG%<ZKLOHWKHOHDVWLPSRUWDQWWUDLWRQOHQWLOJUDLQ\LHOGZDV1(37KHUHODWLYH
FRQWULEXWLRQVRIGLIIHUHQWWUDLWVRIHFRQRPLFDOFURS\LHOGWRWKHLGHQWL¿FDWLRQRI
GHVLUDEOHJHQRW\SHIRXQGLQWKLVVWXG\E\WKHWUDLWVFRPSDULQJELSORWSURFHGXUHRI
WKH*7ELSORWDUHVLPLODUWRWKRVHIRXQGLQRWKHUFURSVWXGLHVLHVR\EHDQ
ZKLWHOXSLQUDSHVHHGFDQRODDQGZKHDW
*HQRW\SH*)/,3/ZKLFKLVLPSURYHGE\,QWHUQDWLRQDO&HQWHUIRU
$JULFXOWXUDO5HVHDUFKLQWKH'U\$UHD,&$5'$LVRQHRIWKHLPSRUWDQWFDQGL
GDWHVIRUFRPPHUFLDOFXOWLYDUUHOHDVHIRUDULGDQGVHPLDULGDUHDV7KHUHIRUHRWKHU
JHQRW\SHVZHUHFRPSDUHGZLWKWKLVJHQRW\SHYLDELSORW)LJ5DQNLQJRIRWKHU
)LJ*HQRW\SHE\WUDLW*7ELSORWIRUFRPSDULVRQRIGLIIHUHQWWUDLWVDFFRUGLQJWRJUDLQ\LHOG *<7UDLWVDEEUHYLDWLRQVDUH3+SODQWKHLJKW16%QXPEHURIEUDQFKHVSHUSODQW31QXPEHU RISRGVSHUSODQW5'URRWLQJGHSWKFP1(3QXPEHURIHPSW\SRGV+*:JUDLQVZHLJKW *<JUDLQV\LHOGDQG%<ELRORJLFDO\LHOGUMCS
UHPLQHGJHQRW\SHVEDVHGRQWKHJHQRW\SH*ZDV*!*!*!*!*!*
!*7KHUHIRUHWKHPRVWIDYRUDEOHJHQRW\SHVUHJDUGLQJDOORIWKHOHQWLOPHDVXUHG
WUDLWVDUH*DQG*ZKLOHWKHOHDVWIDYRUDEOHJHQRW\SHVZHUH**DQG*,Q
WKLVUHVHDUFKLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIWKHJHQRW\SHE\WUDLWLQWHUDFWLRQZDVEDVHGRQWKH
*7ELSORWWHFKQLTXHLQOHQWLOJHQRW\SHV&RQVLGHULQJDOORIWKHJHQHUDWHGEL
SORWVDWOHDVWSODQWKHLJKW3+QXPEHURIEUDQFKHVSHUSODQW16%JUDLQV
ZHLJKW+*:DQGQXPEHURISRGVSHUSODQW31WUDLWVZKLFKUHODWHGWRJUDLQ
\LHOGZHUHLGHQWL¿HGDVPRVWLQÀXHQFLQJWUDLWVRQOHQWLO\LHOGSHUIRUPDQFH7KH
UHIRUHIRUIXWXUHOHQWLOEUHHGLQJSURJUDPVLWLVHVVHQWLDOWRGH¿QHVHOHFWLRQLQGL
FHVEDVHGRQDERYHWUDLWV3RO\JRQELSORWVXJJHVWHGWKDWWKHUHH[LVWIRXUSRVVLEOH
VHFWLRQVIRUOHQWLOWUDLWVIRUZKLFKWKLVVHFWLRQSDWWHUQVQHHGVYHUL¿FDWLRQWKURXJK
RWKHUVSLQDFKWULDOVIRUWKLVWDUJHWUHJLRQ
7KH*7ELSORWPHWKRGDVWKHPXOWLYDULDWHVWDWLVWLFDOWRROKDVEHHQLQWURGXFHG
WR H[SORUH WKH PXOWLGLUHFWLRQDOLW\ DVSHFW RI GDWD DQG WR H[WUDFW PRUH LQIRUPD
WLRQIURPLQWHUDFWLRQFRPSRQHQW7KH*7ELSORWDOVRLGHQWL¿HVVXSHULRUJHQRW\SHV
ZLWKIDYRUDEOHWUDLWVHIIHFWVZKLFKZRXOGEHXVHIXOIRUWKHEUHHGLQJRIQHZOLQHV
)LJ*HQRW\SHE\WUDLW*7ELSORWIRUUDQNLQJRIJHQRW\SHVEDVHGRQ*
IRUHDFKWDUJHWHQWU\EHFDXVHLWZLOOKHOSUHVHDUFKHUVIRUH[SORLWLQJWKHLQWHUDFWLRQV
DPRQJHQWULHVDQGVXEVHWVRIWHVWHUV
&21&/86,216)RUVHYHUDOUHDVRQVZHSUHIHUWRWKHXVHRI*7ELSORWWRHYDOXDWHWKHJHQR
W\SHVSHUIRUPDQFHJURZQZLWKDSSOLFDWLRQRIQDQR)HIHUWLOL]HULE\XVLQJWKLV
PHWKRGWKHPDLQHIIHFWRIWKHJHQRW\SHLVQRWRPLWWHGLLELSORWJUDSKLVHDV\WR
XVHDQGWRLQWHUSUHWDQGLLLRWKHULQIRUPDWLRQVXFKDVWKHEHVWPDWLQJSDUWQHUIRU
HDFKJHQRW\SHJURXSVRIVLPLODUJHQRW\SHVDQGWKHEHVWFURVVHVWKDWDUHVXSHULRU
WRWKHLUJHQRW\SHVFDQEHJUDSKLFDOO\YLVXDOL]HGWRUDSLGO\LGHQWLI\VXLWDEOHJHQR
W\SHVDQGFURVVHVIRUIXUWKHULQYHVWLJDWLRQ
$&.12:/('*0(176:H ZLVK WR WKDQN 'U : <DQ IRU PDNLQJ DYDLODEOH D WLPHOLPLWHG YHUVLRQ RI **( ELSORW VRIWZDUHDV³7HVW%LSORW[OV[´
5()(5(1&(6
%U\DQ-$1LWURJHQ¿[LQJWUHHVDQGVKUXEVDEDVLFUHVRXUFHRIDJURIRUHVWU\>LQ@7KH 6LOYLFXOWXUDO %DVLV IRU$JURIRUHVWU\ 6\VWHPV (GV 06$VKWRQ ) 0RQWDJQLQL &5& 3UHVV %DWRQ5RXJH/$SS± 'HKJKDQL'2PLGL+6DEDJKQLD1*UDSKLFDQDO\VLVRIWUDLWUHODWLRQVRIFDQROD%UDV VLFDQDSXV/XVLQJELSORWPHWKRG$JURQRP\-RXUQDO± 5XELR-&XEHUR-,0DUWtQ/06XVR0-)ORUHV)%LSORWDQDO\VLVRIWUDLWUHODWLRQV RIZKLWHOXSLQLQ6SDLQ(XSK\WLFD± 6DEDJKQLD1'HKJKDQL+$OL]DGHK%0RKJKDGGDP0*HQHWLFDQDO\VLVRIRLO\LHOG VHHG\LHOGDQG\LHOGFRPSRQHQWVLQUDSHVHHGXVLQJDGGLWLYHPDLQHIIHFWVDQGPXOWLSOLFDWLYH LQWHUDFWLRQELSORWV$JURQRP\-RXUQDO± 6DEDJKQLD1.DULPL]DGHK50RKDPPDGL0*UDSKLFDQDO\VLVRI\LHOGVWDELOLW\LQ QHZ LPSURYHG OHQWLO /HQV FXOLQDULV 0HGLN JHQRW\SHV XVLQJ QRQSDUDPHWULF VWDWLVWLFV$FWD $JULFXOWXUDH6ORYHQLFD± 6DEDJKQLD1-DQPRKDPPDGL0,QWHUUHODWLRQVKLSVDPRQJVRPHPRUSKRORJLFDOWUDLWVRI ZKHDW7ULWLFXPDHVWLYXP/FXOWLYDUVXVLQJELSORW%RWDQLFD/LWKXDQLFD± 6DEDJKQLD1.DULPL]DGHK50RKDPPDGL0**/ELSORWDQDO\VLVRIGXUXPZKHDW 7ULWLFXPWXUJLGXPVSSGXUXP\LHOGLQPXOWLHQYLURQPHQWWULDOV%XOJDULDQ-RXUQDORI$JULFXO WXUDO6FLHQFH±
6DEDJKQLD 1 'HKJKDQL +$OL]DGHK % 0RJKDGGDP 0 <LHOG DQDO\VLV RI UDSHVHHG %UDVVLFDQDSXV/XQGHUZDWHUVWUHVVFRQGLWLRQVXVLQJ**(ELSORWPHWKRGRORJ\-RXUQDORI &URS,PSURYHPHQW±
6HNKRQ %6 1DQRWHFKQRORJ\ LQ DJULIRRG SURGXFWLRQ DQ RYHUYLHZ 1DQRWHFKQRORJ\ 6FLHQFHDQG$SSOLFDWLRQV±
<DQ:&RUQHOLXV3/&URVVD-+XQW/$&RPSDULVRQRIWZRW\SHVRI**(ELSORWVIRU VWXG\LQJJHQRW\SHE\HQYLURQPHQWLQWHUDFWLRQ&URS6FLHQFH±