Informacje i komentarze zawarte w niniejszym raporcie nie stanowi¹ rekomendacji w rozumieniu Rozporz¹dzenia Rady Ministrów z dnia 19 padziernika 2005 roku w sprawie informacji stanowi¹cych rekomendacje dotycz¹ce instrumentów finansowych, ich emitentów lub wystawców. DM nie ponosi odpowiedzialnoci za decyzje inwestycyjne podjête na podstawie informacji zawartych w niniejszym opracowaniu.
PKO Dom Maklerski ul. Pu³awska 15 02-515 Warszawa tel. (0-22) 521-80-00 Analityk:
Przemys³aw Smoliñski tel. (0-22) 521-79-10 e-mail:
przemyslaw.smolinski2@pkobp.pl
Komentarz: WIG20, S&P 500
Wtorek 06.08.2013
WIG20 (Polska)
WIG20 odpoczywa³ wczoraj po silnych wzrostach z ubieg³ego tygodnia. Jak na razie jednak brak sygna³ów zakoñczenia ruchu i najbli¿sze sesje powinny przynieæ jego kontynuacjê w kierunku 2450 punktów.
S&P 500 (USA)
S&P 500 od dwóch sesji stoi w miejscu. Ca³y czas jednak obowi¹zuje scenariusz wzrostowy i dalszego ruchu mo¿na oczekiwaæ na kolejnych sesjach.
22 29 6
May
13 20 27 3
June
10 17 24 1
July
8 15 22 29
August 5
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
2130 2140 2150 2160 2170 2180 2190 2200 2210 2220 2230 2240 2250 2260 2270 2280 2290 2300 2310 2320 2330 2340 2350 2360 2370 2380 2390 2400 2410 2420 2430 2440 2450 2460 2470 2480 2490 2500 2510 2520 2530 2540
23 30 6 June 13 20 27 4
July 11 18 25 1 8
August 16 22 29 512
September 19 26 310
October 17 24 31 7 14
November 21 28 5 12
December 19 27 2 9
2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 10
April 16 23 30
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 3 10
September 17 24 1 8
October 15 22 29 512
November 19 26 310
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 4 11
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 1
-15 -10 -5 0 5 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 10
1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600 2650 2700 2750 2800 2850 2900 2950 3000
3 31 6 June 13 20 27 5
July 11 18 25 18
August 15 22 29 6 12
September 19 26 3 10
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 512
December 19 27 3 9
2012 17 23 30 6
February 13 21 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 9
April 16 23 30
May 7 14 21 29 4
June 11 18 25 2 9
July 16 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 4 10
September 17 24 1 8
October 15 22 3112
November 19 26 3 10
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 22 28 4 11
February 19 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 8 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 28 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 1
-11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 9
1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750
22 29
May
6 13 20 28 3
June
10 17 24 1
July
8 15 22 29
August 5
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
1530 1535 1540 1545 1550 1555 1560 1565 1570 1575 1580 1585 1590 1595 1600 1605 1610 1615 1620 1625 1630 1635 1640 1645 1650 1655 1660 1665 1670 1675 1680 1685 1690 1695 1700 1705 1710 1715 1720
Wykres dnia: Hygienika
Od drugiej po³owy lipca Hygienika zwy¿kuje. Wczoraj kurs testowa³ lokalne maksimum z czerwca na poziomie 2,18 z³. Choæ nie uda³o mu siê trwale go prze³amaæ, to jednak najbli¿sze sesje powinny przynieæ kolejne próby. W przypadku pokonania oporu, minimalny zasiêg ruchu nale¿y wyznaczyæ na 2,28 z³, a potencjalny na 2,40 z³ lub 2,55 z³, choæ w optymistycznym scenariuszu wydarzeñ wzrosty mog¹ siêgn¹æ nawet 2,78 z³.
Hygienika (Polska)
7 3 10 17 September 24 1 8
October 15 22 29 5 12
November 19 26 3 10 17 December 27 7
2013 14 21 28 4 11
February 18 25 4 11 March 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29
May 13 20 27 3 10 June 17 24 1
July 8 15 22 29 5 12 August 1
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 .9
1 .0
1 .1
1 .2
1 .3
1 .4
1 .5
1 .6
1 .7
1 .8
1 .9
2 .0
2 .1
2 .2
2 .3
2 .4
2 .5
2 .6
2 .7
2 .8
6 sierpieñ 2013 3
23 30 6 June 14 20 27 4
July 11 18 25 1 8
August 15 22 29 512
September 19 26 310
October 17 24 2
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 27 2
2012 916 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 1226 2 10
April 16 23 2
May 14 21 29 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 21 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 24 512
November 19 26 310
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 4 11
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 21 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 1
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
14500 15000 15500 16000 16500 17000 17500 18000 18500 19000 19500 20000 20500 21000 21500 22000 22500 23000 23500
22 29
May
6 13 21 27 3
June
10 17 24 1
July
8 15 22 29
August 5
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
17600 17700 17800 17900 18000 18100 18200 18300 18400 18500 18600 18700 18800 18900 19000 19100 19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800
13 20 27 4 July
11 18 25 18 August
15 22 29 512 September 19 26 310
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 27 2
2012 916 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2
April 10 16 23 30 7
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5 12
November 19 26 3 10
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 4 11
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 1
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600 2650 2700 2750 2800 2850 2900 2950 3000 3050 3100 3150 3200 3250 3300 3350 3400
22 29
May
6 13 20 27 3
June
10 17 24 1
July
8 15 22 29
August 5
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Oscylator krotkoterminowy
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 2160 2170 2180 2190 2200 2210 2220 2230 2240 2250 2260 2270 2280 2290 2300 2310 2320 2330 2340 2350 2360 2370
3 30 6 June 14 20 27 4
July 11 18 25 18
August 15 22 29 512
September 19 26 3 10
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5 12
December 19 26 3 9
2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 19 26 29
April 16 23 2
May 14 21 28 4
June 1325 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 3 10
September 17 24 1 8
October 15 22 29 6 12
November 19 26 310
December 17 24 8 14
2013 21 28 4 11
February 18 25 4 11
March 18 25 18
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 1
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 20
1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600 2650 2700 2750 2800 2850 2900
22 29
May
6 13 20 27 3
June
10 17 24 1
July
8 15 22 29
August 5
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
1710 1720 1730 1740 1750 1760 1770 1780 1790 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120
(Wêgry)
RTX (Rosja)
CECE (Europa rodkowo-
wschodnia)
13 20 27 4 July
11 18 25 18 August
15 22 29 512 September 19 26 310
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 27 2
2012 916 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 10
April 16 23 30 7
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5 12
November 19 26 3 10
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 4 11
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 1
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Wskaznik srednioterminowy 15
5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500
9 22 23 24 25 26 29 30 2 May
3 678 9 10 13 14 15 16 17 20 21 22 23 24 27 28 29 30 31 3 June
45 6 710 11 12 13 14 17 18 19 20 21 24 25 26 27 28 1 July
2 34 58 910 11 12 15 16 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 29 30 31 1 2 August
5 67 8 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
7350 7400 7450 7500 7550 7600 7650 7700 7750 7800 7850 7900 7950 8000 8050 8100 8150 8200 8250 8300 8350 8400 8450 8500 8550 8600 8650
16 23 30 6 June 13 20 27 4
July 11 19 25 18
August 15 22 29 512
September 20311
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 26 4
2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 9
April 16 23 1
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 917 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 18 24 1 9
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 25 7
2013 15 21 28 4 12
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 18
April 15 22 30
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 816 22 29 5
August
12 19
-15
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 13500 14000 14500 15000 15500 16000 16500
22 30
May
7 13 20 27 3
June
10 17 24 1
July
8 16 22 29
August 5
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
12200 12300 12400 12500 12600 12700 12800 12900 13000 13100 13200 13300 13400 13500 13600 13700 13800 13900 14000 14100 14200 14300 14400 14500 14600 14700 14800 14900 15000 15100 15200 15300 15400 15500 15600 15700 15800 15900 16000 16100 16200
5 3 May
9 16 23 30 7 June 13 20 27 4
July 11 18 25 18
August 15 22 29 5 13
September 19 26 10 17
October 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 26 4
2012 16 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 5
April 16 23 2
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 815
October 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31
2013 14 21 28 418
February 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 15 22 2
May 13 20 27 3
June 1324 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600 2650 2700 2750 2800 2850 2900 2950 3000 3050
5 22 2
May
6 13 20 27 3
June
13 17 24 1
July
8 15 22 29
August 5
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350
DAX (Niemcy)
SHCOMP
(Chiny)
NIKKEI 225
(Japonia)
6 sierpieñ 2013 5
1 6 June 13 20 27 4
July 11 18 25 18
August 15 22 30 512
September 19 26 310
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5 12
December 19 289
2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 10
April 16 23 30
May 8 14 21 28 6
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 28 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5 12
November 19 26 3 10
December 17 247
2013 14 21 28 4 11
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 7
May 13 20 28 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 1
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
6400 6500 6600 6700 6800 6900 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400 7500 7600 7700 7800 7900 8000 8100 8200 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900 9000 9100 9200 9300 9400 9500 9600 9700 9800 9900
22 29
May
7 13 20 28 3
June
10 17 24 1
July
8 15 22 29
August 5
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Oscylator krotkoterminowy
6550 6600 6650 6700 6750 6800 6850 6900 6950 7000 7050 7100 7150 7200 7250 7300 7350 7400 7450 7500
20 27 4 July
11 18 25 18 August
15 22 29 512 September 19 26 310
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 27 3 9
2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 9
April 16 23 30
May 714 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 8 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 1
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130
22 29
May
6 13 20 27 3
June
10 17 24 1
July
8 15 22 29
August 5
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
97.5 98.0 98.5 99.0 99.5 100.0 100.5 101.0 101.5 102.0 102.5 103.0 103.5 104.0 104.5 105.0 105.5 106.0 106.5 107.0 107.5 108.0 108.5 109.0 109.5 110.0 110.5
3 20 27 4 July
11 18 25 18 August
15 22 29 512 September 19 26 310
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 26 2
2012 916 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 10
April 16 23 30
May 714 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 512
November 19 26 310
December 17 277
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 1
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
22 29
May
6 13 20 27 3
June
10 17 24 1
July
8 15 22 29
August 5
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
2.90 2.95 3.00 3.05 3.10 3.15 3.20 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.40 3.45 3.50 3.55 3.60 3.65 3.70 3.75 3.80 3.85 3.90 3.95 4.00 4.05 4.10 4.15 4.20 4.25 4.30 4.35 4.40 4.45 4.50 4.55 4.60 4.65 4.70
(LME)
Obligacje 10-letnie (Polska)
Ropa Brent
(Wielka Brytania)
27 4 July
11 18 25 18 August
15 22 29 512 September 19 26 310
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 512
December 19 26 2
2012 916 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2
April 916 23 30
May 714 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 8 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 1
10 11 12 13 14 15 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
2.65 2.70 2.75 2.80 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00 3.05 3.10 3.15 3.20 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.40 3.45 3.50 3.55 3.60 3.65
22 29
May
6 13 20 27 3
June
10 17 24 1
July
8 15 22 29
August 5
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
3.11 3.12 3.13 3.14 3.15 3.16 3.17 3.18 3.19 3.20 3.21 3.22 3.23 3.24 3.25 3.26 3.27 3.28 3.29 3.30 3.31 3.32 3.33 3.34 3.35 3.36 3.37 3.38 3.39 3.40
6 une 13 20 27 4
July 11 18 25 18
August 15 22 29 512
September 19 26 310
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 26 2 9
2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2
April 9 16 23 30
May 7 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 9 16 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 1 8
October 15 22 29 5 12
November 19 26 3 10
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 4 11
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 19
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August
12 1
-7
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Wskaznik srednioterminowy
3.90 3.95 4.00 4.05 4.10 4.15 4.20 4.25 4.30 4.35 4.40 4.45 4.50 4.55 4.60 4.65
22 29
May
6 13 20 27 3
June
10 17 24 1
July
8 15 22 29
August 5
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
4.07 4.08 4.09 4.10 4.11 4.12 4.13 4.14 4.15 4.16 4.17 4.18 4.19 4.20 4.21 4.22 4.23 4.24 4.25 4.26 4.27 4.28 4.29 4.30 4.31 4.32 4.33 4.34 4.35 4.36 4.37 4.38 4.39 4.40
27 4 July
11 18 25 18 August
15 22 29 512 September 19 26 310
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 512
December 19 26 2
2012 916 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2
April 916 23 30
May 714 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 8 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 1
